How Much will hurts get

[last stand]

My point still stands though, finding a QB that ends up being elite is like hitting the lotto. It’s not an exact science. There’s more luck involved than anything.

Define elite. Dak isn’t elite imo, and neither is hurts. Both may end up moving up the charts but as of now I really only see Allen and mahomes as elite. Possibly joe burrow depending how the rest of the year plays out. And possibly hurts or dak. But looking around the league it looks like it’s about 50/50 to get a good QB who doesn’t deserve a huge contract

Which was my concern with wentz and is my concern with hurts

[Mr.B]

Very low chance they let Hurts play out his contract without extending him.

Hurts is better than Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers (current), the 3 top AAV contracts. He'll get AAV between $46.5M and $51.0M, with a total guaranteed between $160M and $200M.

If they're smart, they'll front load it and do it sooner than later to drive up the tag for Lamar.

Tagging Lamar will cost $45.4M next year and $54.4M the following year due to Watson's cap hit structure.

That’s what I’ve been trying to explain to BDawk but he’s under the impression he will agree to much less than that.

[Mr.B]

If a better QB is available in the draft, why wouldn't the Texans just draft that QB.

Makes no sense.

Exactly!

[last stand]

Just a thought but wouldn’t Hurts have to agree with the trade? Any team trading for him would want to have a contract in place first.

Ya but I’d think he’d agree to most teams if they offered the contract. Outside of the bottom 5 or so inept franchises. But I’d say a team that’s roughly close to being a playoff team would be pretty open to it

[Mr.B]

Define elite. Dak isn’t elite imo, and neither is hurts. Both may end up moving up the charts but as of now I really only see Allen and mahomes as elite. Possibly joe burrow depending how the rest of the year plays out. And possibly hurts or dak. But looking around the league it looks like it’s about 50/50 to get a good QB who doesn’t deserve a huge contract

Which was my concern with wentz and is my concern with hurts

I would define elite as being in the MVP conversation. You can replace the word elite with “top 10ish” though. Both Dak and Hurts are top 10ish QB’s.

[last stand]

Because BDawk keeps mentioning the Texans as a potential trading partner.

I don’t personally see the Texans trading a top 5 pick and if they did I’m confident that’d be the only 1st they’d trade

Maybe if there was a swap for the saints pick they’d give up 2 1sts

[Bullseyed]

More than likely what will happen is Hurts will get his $50M per and guys like Davonte Smith will be allowed to walk (or traded). With all the picks they have they will just replace Smith with someone cheaper. They will more than likely use those picks to keep the talent level around Hurts elite. Don’t forget they also have an old defense that will have to be replaced.

How are you going to get cheaper than DeVonta Smith's 4 years / $20M? He's signed through 2024 at a great price and will likely still be worth it for the 5th year option in 2025.

AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert both have outs in 2024 in their contract. The top 3 Eagles receivers aren't changing until 2024-2025.

If they need space they'd restructure a guy like Mailata who spikes cap hits in 2024/2025 and only has 1 void year on his current deal. Most of the high-cap-hit Eagles players have 3-4-5 void years.

[last stand]

I would define elite as being in the MVP conversation. You can replace the word elite with “top 10ish” though. Both Dak and Hurts are top 10ish QB’s.

See I said this in 2018 and I’ll reiterate I don’t believe in paying guys who as you called top 10ish big contracts

I actually agree your rating of them. But the ish part is key. Depth and surrounding talent suffer with those contracts and the QBs are 10ish so they don’t mask those deficiencies

That’s why my stance is if jalen shows he’s more top 5 by the end. Then hand him that contract

If he’s top 10ish. I’d prefer not to

[Bullseyed]

Exactly!

The counter to it is the Eagles would package the Texans pick with the Saints pick to trade up further... but that would also require a team that needs a QB trading back instead of taking a QB.

Hurts runs a little worse than Lamar and passes a little worse than Josh Allen, but is a good enough combination of their skillsets. The only negative on him would seem to be that he sat behind Wentz, but it sounds like he actually won the job from the HC, but the HC was forced to play Wentz longer by GM/Owner.

You could probably use the Allen/Lamar compares there for Watson and Murray, so at the very least Hurts is on par with Watson and Murray, if you want to be negative on him. But that means his floor for pay is the Watson and Murray deals + 1-2 years of inflation.

[last stand]

Exactly! How will the rest of the team feel if the Eagles refuse to pay the unquestioned leader of the team and simply replace him with a rookie. That wouldn’t go over well in the locker room.

Well that depends on where this season ends up. Eagles have a super bowl chance, but I don’t think they’re a lock. Especially considering every week there’s a concerning injury that ends up not being serious but they’re flirting with them

[last stand]

The counter to it is the Eagles would package the Texans pick with the Saints pick to trade up further... but that would also require a team that needs a QB trading back instead of taking a QB.

Hurts runs a little worse than Lamar and passes a little worse than Josh Allen, but is a good enough combination of their skillsets. The only negative on him would seem to be that he sat behind Wentz, but it sounds like he actually won the job from the HC, but the HC was forced to play Wentz longer by GM/Owner.

You could probably use the Allen/Lamar compares there for Watson and Murray, so at the very least Hurts is on par with Watson and Murray, if you want to be negative on him. But that means his floor for pay is the Watson and Murray deals + 1-2 years of inflation.

I mean Lamar sat behind Flacco and mahomes behind smith

[Bullseyed]

Exactly! How will the rest of the team feel if the Eagles refuse to pay the unquestioned leader of the team and simply replace him with a rookie. That wouldn’t go over well in the locker room.

The flipside to this is the 49ers basically did what you're talking about here. Tried to kneecap Jimmy G for not being good enough after losing the Superbowl, drafted a rookie, lost the locker room and ended up back with Jimmy G after Glass Trey Lance went down.

Also if you're a true-believer on Wentz like he is, you could argue that the Eagles basically did that to Wentz by drafting Hurts, so why wouldn't they do it to Hurts with the next guy. Which is somewhat fair.

[Bullseyed]

I mean Lamar sat behind Flacco and mahomes behind smith

Yeah. I'm not making the argument, I'm suggesting what the counter-argument would be.

"If the Eagles secretly want to move on from Hurts, why?"

There isn't much there.

[last stand]

I think the bet at 7-0 with a Super Bowl chance and him playing well is that he’s signed to a contract

I think there’s things that can happen the rest of the season that can change that

But there’s a lot that has to. Jalen has the demeanor and work ethic you’d want. His performance isn’t where I’d want. Maybe it gets there. I never felt wentz deserved the contract after 2018. After 2017? Sure but after 2018 and 2019 I did not. I personally suggested trading wentz in 2018 after the super bowl for a kings ransom. Before he had even returned. Said roll with foles and trade wentz for like 3 1sts.

It’s not about why would another team take them. I think typically a team would trade way too much for a top 10ish guy

It’s about how I perceive anyone not unquestionably a top 5 guy and as of now that top 5 looks more like a top 2

[BDawk4Prez]

Not according to BDawk. They will trade him for a rookie and then they will be better.

Nobody said that.


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