Off Season Thread- 2022-2023

[PJO34]

The numbers being thrown around are insane. Judge has MAYBE four more top tier years and in year five he will perhaps be a 2.30 hitter with 20 HRS and that is if he is able to stay on the field.

We need to take a page from the Red Sux. Punt 2023. Reset the luxury tax. Give the kids the whole year to compete, fail, and figure it out.

For 2024, get Ohtani and Devers. Players like Cabrera, Peraza, and Volpe will have a year of experience. We can determine if we want to resign montas, severing, and Bader.

The Dodgers had it right to offer a ridiculous AAV for four years. To sign Judge to an eight or nine year contract is insane. To lose the kid, Mayea, is also insane.

[runnermjr1296]

The numbers being thrown around are insane. Judge has MAYBE four more top tier years and in year five he will perhaps be a 2.30 hitter with 20 HRS and that is if he is able to stay on the field.

We need to take a page from the Red Sux. Punt 2023. Reset the luxury tax. Give the kids the whole year to compete, fail, and figure it out.

For 2024, get Ohtani and Devers. Players like Cabrera, Peraza, and Volpe will have a year of experience. We can determine if we want to resign montas, severing, and Bader.

The Dodgers had it right to offer a ridiculous AAV for four years. To sign Judge to an eight or nine year contract is insane. To lose the kid, Mayea, is also insane.

Agreed as far as the 4 years.
Let him walk and reset


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[Kinkotheclown]

Honestly, I don’t care.

Maybe it’s not the right way to think about things. But I always look at a player, and assign a max value. If that isn’t enough to get it done, oh well, move on. I don’t ever think “well, we have to, what else we gonna do” is a valid reason to do something. Locking yourself into a large, bad deal just isn’t a good idea

I hate to agree with Cashman but like you, I do.
As I have stated, I think Hal screwed himself by not starting at 8 for 320. or 7 for 280.

The worst part about Judge is if Hal does go to that 9 year 360 range, he and the FO will use that as "proof of their desire to win". It isn't. It's proof of their desire to make money.
Proof of desire to win would be to let him walk and then use that money to sign the best FAs and make smart trades.

[Kinkotheclown]

The numbers being thrown around are insane. Judge has MAYBE four more top tier years and in year five he will perhaps be a 2.30 hitter with 20 HRS and that is if he is able to stay on the field.

We need to take a page from the Red Sux. Punt 2023. Reset the luxury tax. Give the kids the whole year to compete, fail, and figure it out.

For 2024, get Ohtani and Devers. Players like Cabrera, Peraza, and Volpe will have a year of experience. We can determine if we want to resign montas, severing, and Bader.

The Dodgers had it right to offer a ridiculous AAV for four years. To sign Judge to an eight or nine year contract is insane. To lose the kid, Mayea, is also insane.

Sign me up

[johnnyi]

Sign Judge no matter what it takes. It is the cost of doing business. I've said all along that it will take $320 Million to $360 million to sign him.

Plus I totally disagree with the premise that we lose Judge because we don't want to sign him for 9years, but we would rather pay the same money for 7 years. To me that's very silly, paying a higher luxury tax and losing his performance in later years. Ideally, I'd stretch out the contract to as many years as possible with the lowest AAV. If his market value is $360 million and the record AAV for a position player is $35.5 million, then I stretch the $360 million over 10 years instead of 9 just so he still gets the record for highest AAV, but the Yankees only have $36 Million for luxury tax instead of $40 million. I also structure the contract into to outs, so that he can opt out after 4 years at $45 million and after another 4 years at $35 million, then split the last $40 million over the final two years. This way if he hits $200 + Hrs in the next 4 years and wants to opt out, you can make a decision on his health and performance and so can he. He might want the opt outs sooner and that's also OK.

Further, I totally disagree with passing on Judge and signing Ohtani and Devers next year for multiple reasons. Fist off let's assume Judge gets a 9 year contract from SF for $360 million at the age of 31. What will Ohtani want at the age of 28? 12 years and a higher AAV. So 10 - 12 years at $50 million, $500 million to $600 million. Plus Devers at $250 million -$300 million for a total of $750 million - $900 million. That's a far cry from Judge's $360 million and he is the best hitter in the game and a Yankees legend. Plus, Ohtani is only worth double the Devers money because he can pitch and I would never give a pitcher a 10 year contract, especially a RH pitcher who screws up the rest of your pitching staff. So, if something happens to his arm and you lose a season or so and/or he becomes a strict DH, then you will be paying all that money for a DH or an injured player.

[Scottish]

Sign Judge no matter what it takes. It is the cost of doing business. I've said all along that it will take $320 Million to $360 million to sign him.

Plus I totally disagree with the premise that we lose Judge because we don't want to sign him for 9years, but we would rather pay the same money for 7 years. To me that's very silly, paying a higher luxury tax and losing his performance in later years. Ideally, I'd stretch out the contract to as many years as possible with the lowest AAV. If his market value is $360 million and the record AAV for a position player is $35.5 million, then I stretch the $360 million over 10 years instead of 9 just so he still gets the record for highest AAV, but the Yankees only have $36 Million for luxury tax instead of $40 million. I also structure the contract into to outs, so that he can opt out after 4 years at $45 million and after another 4 years at $35 million, then split the last $40 million over the final two years. This way if he hits $200 + Hrs in the next 4 years and wants to opt out, you can make a decision on his health and performance and so can he. He might want the opt outs sooner and that's also OK.

Further, I totally disagree with passing on Judge and signing Ohtani and Devers next year for multiple reasons. Fist off let's assume Judge gets a 9 year contract from SF for $360 million at the age of 31. What will Ohtani want at the age of 28? 12 years and a higher AAV. So 10 - 12 years at $50 million, $500 million to $600 million. Plus Devers at $250 million -$300 million for a total of $750 million - $900 million. That's a far cry from Judge's $360 million and he is the best hitter in the game and a Yankees legend. Plus, Ohtani is only worth double the Devers money because he can pitch and I would never give a pitcher a 10 year contract, especially a RH pitcher who screws up the rest of your pitching staff. So, if something happens to his arm and you lose a season or so and/or he becomes a strict DH, then you will be paying all that money for a DH or an injured player.

The problem with opt outs is they really only work in favour of the player look at JV. I’m kinda minded now that Hal should just say his number be it 9 @ 40 or what ever his max is. I’d certainly not go over that and say sign or were out. Draw a line. If he’s out then why not reset? Give youth a real chance and go nuts next year to fill any gaps etc. judge doesn’t define us as a team if he leaves he’s stepping down not the other way around. Unless he goes to Houston 🤷*♂️

[drt1010]

I love Judge. 9 years scares the crap out of me. Rock and a hard spot.

[Kinkotheclown]

I love Judge. 9 years scares the crap out of me. Rock and a hard spot.

Yep
If 9 is it, I have no issue if he walks
I will have issue with the stupidity of the FO for not signing him last year but I think 9 is too long

[YANKSGUY]

If I am Judge, I tell them I sign only if you get rid of players, A, B, C... and sign players D, E, F....

A big fat no on that. You can't give a player that kind of control. I don't care how good they are. You start that you're going to create an animal you don't want to deal with.

[drt1010]

I hate to agree with Cashman but like you, I do.
As I have stated, I think Hal screwed himself by not starting at 8 for 320. or 7 for 280.

The worst part about Judge is if Hal does go to that 9 year 360 range, he and the FO will use that as "proof of their desire to win". It isn't. It's proof of their desire to make money.
Proof of desire to win would be to let him walk and then use that money to sign the best FAs and make smart trades.

That sounds like a lose-lose proposition. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

You make it sound as if Judge adds nothing to the equation other than box office and merch. Imo he is the heart of this team.

He is the reigning HR champ, AL MVP, Player of the year and the Hank Aron award winner. Multiple Silver Slugger winner and 1st in offensive WAR. He missed the triple crown by a hair. He was also 1st in fld% for Ofers.

Isn't Judge the best FA available?

[jango2000]

Hal is very aware how important the Yankees brand is and how important it is to keep up the brand.
If our homegrown superstar leaves, the brand suffers.
The brand was really run down in the late 80s/early 90s and New York belonged to the Mets. George was banned from baseball and the brand was in bad shape.
Things worked well for the owners with the super cheap Wilpons essentially handing the town to the Yankees.
Cohen will not do that. He knows that the New York market does not operate the same way a small town market works and he's smart enough to know that you have to keep the payroll at max and keep your team relevant.
This competition is going to become intense and it may be for the good of all New York fans.
The FO office will have to accept that there will ALWAYS be a certain amount of sunk costs in being the Yankees (time to cut bait on JD and AH). There is no way we can operate like the Rays. We don't even know how.
I don't mind blowing through the luxury tax, but I'm against losing that International money if we sign a QO player. Outbidding for international free agents is one way we can have pipeline of young talent because we sure aren't very good at coming up with 8th round superstars.
If we do re-sign Judge - and I'm not convinced we will - then you have to accept that in six years we are going to be carrying over 60 million in dead salary between an aging Judge and Stanton who will be sharing the DH position.
Which I think the Yankees need to accept as the cost of doing business because they make a lot more money when the team is operating at max resources.
My real question is how will a guy like Judge - who seems to have actual integrity - be able to handle being ridiculed daily on the back end of that deal when he's a burden on the roster? He's not a sociopath like A Rod. He's actually a decent person who by the way I believe is leaning toward returning to his deep Bay Area roots as he and his wife get ready to start a family. Right now he's torn between a plaque in monument park and love of his family. Don't be surprised if his people win.

[jango2000]

That sounds like a lose-lose proposition. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

You make it sound as if Judge adds nothing to the equation other than box office and merch. Imo he is the heart of this team.

He is the reigning HR champ, AL MVP, Player of the year and the Hank Aron award winner. Multiple Silver Slugger winner and 1st in offensive WAR. He missed the triple crown by a hair. He was also 1st in fld% for Ofers.

Isn't Judge the best FA available?

Absolutely Judge is the best free agent available. And it will absolutely cut the heart out of the fanbase if he's allowed to walk.
But that may be beyond their control. They're certainly willing to spend for him.
The problem is, they'd better be willing to blow past their pain threshold lux tax wise because fielding the same team as last year is not gonna satisfy the rabidly hungry Yankee fans.
They're gonna have to find a way to eat much of JD's contract and find a taker for him. We forget that as much as we don't like IKF at short he was a gold glove third baseman. He can man the position until DJ's toe heals. And IKF right now is a more reliable hitter than JD.
Of course, Hicks needs to be shown the door as well. The man is incapable of playing for us. Eat as much money as necessary and move him too.
We need to either re-sign Bennie or make a trade for Reynolds. If we can re-up Bennie on a 4 or 5 year deal, we can trade him in two years when he's still only 30 and Dom comes to claim LF.
Putting Peraza at short is by far the best move we can make at that position and he's already proven he can handle it. Trade Gleyber for a high end closer. Let Cabrera keep second warm for Volpe who belongs at second. Peraza is the man for SS.
Then, go sign the best pitcher who isn't tied to a QO. That improves this team.

[drt1010]

As I said rock and a hard spot.

[jango2000]

As I said rock and a hard spot.

yup

[YankeeFanAlways]

I hope they leave Verlander alone. Track record is great, but I feel he's a ticking time bomb at his age.

If history is any indication, Cashman won't telegraph the move and I am inclined to believe it won't be any of the big marquee names, more likely a mid rotation arm.

perfect...our inability to hit good pitching in the post season and us signing mid-rotation arms? Guess that equals a WS ???