Off Season Thread- 2022-2023

[Phoba Rama]

the Judge market is down to 2 team, Yanks and Giants.. Dodger reportedly made a huge short term offer believed to be in the 4-5yr range with an AAV around 50m, which was immediately turned down.

Dodger are focused on their rotation and SS. They also want Ohtani in the worst way in FA next yr.

Giants offer was big, but not what was expected. Sounds like they want a bidding war between the 2 teams.

Judge apparently is looking to make a decision sooner than later.

Judge and Hal have talked extensively and I'm still told as long as their negotiations don't get out, Judge will still give Hal the last shot.

The Yanks are after Thor. He works in the offseason with Cressey. Cressey is saying that they can rebuild him and he's finally healthy, with improved mechanics. Whats not known is if they want him as a starter or reliever. We've been connected to Thor quite a bit before because of Cressey and we know they have taken chances on his guys before.

LF is going to be very, very interesting to see what happens. Benny has gotten significant interest for a number of teams, with Houston and Minny being the most aggressive. Benny is a mid west guy and it sounds like he would rather play in a smaller market team.

The Yanks really like AZ OFer Jake Mccarthy. The have made what is believed to be a very strong offer for him.

Yoshida is also getting a lot of interest as well. Many believe he's the best contact hitter to come over since Ichiro.

They also have different levels of interest Brantley, Conforto and Bellinger

I'm into this approach with the exception of Thor. He was throwing fastballs and sinkers with an average velo of 97 when he was an ace. In 2022 he threw sinkers at 93 and 4 seamers at 94. 3-4 mph is a lot, and I doubt he'll ever come close to 97 again. I just don't think Thor is ever going to be an ace again, and if rather let some other team see if they can get him there. There are far better options.

[dayners81]

I'm into this approach with the exception of Thor. He was throwing fastballs and sinkers with an average velo of 97 when he was an ace. In 2022 he threw sinkers at 93 and 4 seamers at 94. 3-4 mph is a lot, and I doubt he'll ever come close to 97 again. I just don't think Thor is ever going to be an ace again, and if rather let some other team see if they can get him there. There are far better options.

I don't disagree, I wonder as he gets more comfortable with the new mechanics/motion if he doesn't get a couple ticks back ? it's like Taillon after his change, he threw high 90's early in his career and now sits 93-95.

I think I'd prefer Quintana of the low end pitching options. Might as well get something since we developed him.

If Houston gets Benny, forget about it. It would be such an Astros move to take a flyer on Bellinger and return him to an AS caliber player again.

The Yanks need to do something else big because a Judge, McCarthy and Thor isn't enough to keep us at the top of the AL East, much less get close to winning the WS

Everything I hear Hal wants Peraza and Volpe up the middle next yr and Cabrera as a super utility guy.

That 40m Cash tied up in IKF, JD and Hicks sure would come in handy right now. Hopefully Hal spends that 30m he's getting from the Disney sale on payroll

[808yankee]

I'm into this approach with the exception of Thor. He was throwing fastballs and sinkers with an average velo of 97 when he was an ace. In 2022 he threw sinkers at 93 and 4 seamers at 94. 3-4 mph is a lot, and I doubt he'll ever come close to 97 again. I just don't think Thor is ever going to be an ace again, and if rather let some other team see if they can get him there. There are far better options.

I too like the approach and I don't mind going after Thor. I'm no expert but I like Thor because this was his first full season back from Tommy John, it isn't impossible he regains some lost velocity. And his career ground ball to fly ball ratio is better than say Carlos Rodon's. Rodon played half his games in Oracle park last year and got a lot of fly ball outs. How many of those would've left Yankee stadium?

Basically, Rodon isn't as good as you'd think he'll be (especially in a hitters park like Yankee stadium) and Thor is better than what he showed this season. And yes Thor is a injury risk but what pitcher isn't? I have no doubt Rodon will be looking for at least a 6 year contract. I'm guessing you could get Thor on a 3-4 year deal. Then again, if you're thinking about signing Thor...why not take a stab at deGrom

[RJYANKS12]

the Judge market is down to 2 team, Yanks and Giants.. Dodger reportedly made a huge short term offer believed to be in the 4-5yr range with an AAV around 50m, which was immediately turned down.

Dodger are focused on their rotation and SS. They also want Ohtani in the worst way in FA next yr.

Giants offer was big, but not what was expected. Sounds like they want a bidding war between the 2 teams.

Judge apparently is looking to make a decision sooner than later.

Judge and Hal have talked extensively and I'm still told as long as their negotiations don't get out, Judge will still give Hal the last shot.

The Yanks are after Thor. He works in the offseason with Cressey. Cressey is saying that they can rebuild him and he's finally healthy, with improved mechanics. Whats not known is if they want him as a starter or reliever. We've been connected to Thor quite a bit before because of Cressey and we know they have taken chances on his guys before.

LF is going to be very, very interesting to see what happens. Benny has gotten significant interest for a number of teams, with Houston and Minny being the most aggressive. Benny is a mid west guy and it sounds like he would rather play in a smaller market team.

The Yanks really like AZ OFer Jake Mccarthy. The have made what is believed to be a very strong offer for him.

Yoshida is also getting a lot of interest as well. Many believe he's the best contact hitter to come over since Ichiro.

They also have different levels of interest Brantley, Conforto and Bellinger

While we’re at it, let’s get Gallen too.

[dayners81]

While we’re at it, let’s get Gallen too.

Cashman would find a way to screw that up

[rrzubnyy]

They are trying to get back to what actually works..a mix of homegrown and signings.

Just going out and spending doesn’t work either. If you really believe in the kids you have in the minors, you have to make sure some of them have somewhere to play. And just because a guy is out there, doesn’t mean he’s worth the money, whether you have it or not

But they have been doing this since Teix, Arod and CC left. Since 2016 this has been their way. What have they won since 2016? I’m not saying you can’t bring up the kids. But come on. It is not working out.

[rrzubnyy]

So much to unpack when you discuss whether to keep prospects or trade them for veterans. Under George Steinbrenner, he traded Fred McGriff for Dale Murphy, because the Yankees wanted a LH reliever. The Blue Jays rated McGriff as a cross between Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. Not a good trade.

Also, there is luck involved in making trades depending on position eligibility etc. Steinbrenner wanted David Ortiz, but did not trade for him because he had Nick Johnson and had nowhere to play him. This is similar to Bryce Harper. Yankees had Stanton and it would have been tough to fit him in.

Harper's great and perhaps it was a mistake not getting him, but the first year of his contract, he was on the DL when he hurt himself running over 1B and this past year, he needed Tommy John surgery and decided to postpone it until after the season and could only DH. Again, with Stanton on the team, the Yankees might have just advised him to have the surgery and pack it in until next year. As it is, there is no timetable for his return next season.

On 3/2/19 Harper signed a $330 Million contract with the Phillies. Not including his surgery on his UCL in the last week or so, here is a list of his injuries since he signed:


DATE INJURY
6/25/22 Thumb
6/18/22 Blister
6/1/22 Forearm
5/15/22 Elbow
6/26/21 Foot
6/15/21 Back
5/25/21 Forearm
5/15/21 Shoulder
5/3/21 Wrist
4/28/21 Face
4/17/21 Lower back
9/20/20 Lower back
9/6/19 Hand
8/18/19 Dehydration

Yea sure, now list all of Judge’s injuries. It is just as long.

Since the 2017 season Harpers has played in 725 games. Since the 2017 season Judge has played in 702.

What’s the difference? And Harper has played in more before you could hide him at DH where you always could with Judge if needed. Judge has been at DH 90 games of the 702. Harper has been DH at 100 but 90 games at DH were in 2022. Harper had to play in the field more than Judge from 2017-2021…..

Harper could have been a Yankee and been in that DH cycle as well and saved some games because of it.


And the one that counts and what gets scrutinized more is the postseason at bats.

Harper OPS is .962
Judge’s OPS is .762

[Kinkotheclown]

Yea sure, now list all of Judge’s injuries. It is just as long.

Since the 2017 season Harpers has played in 725 games. Since the 2017 season Judge has played in 702.

What’s the difference? And Harper has played in more before you could hide him at DH where you always could with Judge if needed. Judge has been at DH 90 games of the 702. Harper has been DH at 100 but 90 games at DH were in 2022. Harper had to play in the field more than Judge from 2017-2021…..

Harper could have been a Yankee and been in that DH cycle as well and saved some games because of it.


And the one that counts and what gets scrutinized more is the postseason at bats.

Harper OPS is .962
Judge’s OPS is .762

How many Post seasons has Harper been in since the trade? So, no. That. is not the one that counts

[johnnyi]

LHed, good contact, doesn't K a ton, but I don't know much about him defensively.

As far as the offer, I have no idea. With AZ rebuilding, I'm not sure Torres make a ton of sense. I would guess some kind of combo of Wells, Sweeney, Pereira ??

Hopefully, he's good defensively, since he's played all three OF positions last year. Sign me up for either trade you both have mentioned.

[Kinkotheclown]

I don't disagree, I wonder as he gets more comfortable with the new mechanics/motion if he doesn't get a couple ticks back ? it's like Taillon after his change, he threw high 90's early in his career and now sits 93-95.

I think I'd prefer Quintana of the low end pitching options. Might as well get something since we developed him.

If Houston gets Benny, forget about it. It would be such an Astros move to take a flyer on Bellinger and return him to an AS caliber player again.

The Yanks need to do something else big because a Judge, McCarthy and Thor isn't enough to keep us at the top of the AL East, much less get close to winning the WS

Everything I hear Hal wants Peraza and Volpe up the middle next yr and Cabrera as a super utility guy.

That 40m Cash tied up in IKF, JD and Hicks sure would come in handy right now. Hopefully Hal spends that 30m he's getting from the Disney sale on payroll

Are you getting any sense of what needs to be offered for McCarthy?

I saw this
Miami Marlins get: McCarthy, INF Buddy Kennedy and RHP Edwin Uceta

D-backs get: LHP Jesus Luzardo and cash considerations

So for the Yankees,
Maybe Wells, Pereira and Gil get McCarthy? Or is that an overpay?

I am liking the idea of this kid more and more.

[johnnyi]

Yea sure, now list all of Judge’s injuries. It is just as long.

Since the 2017 season Harpers has played in 725 games. Since the 2017 season Judge has played in 702.

What’s the difference? And Harper has played in more before you could hide him at DH where you always could with Judge if needed. Judge has been at DH 90 games of the 702. Harper has been DH at 100 but 90 games at DH were in 2022. Harper had to play in the field more than Judge from 2017-2021…..

Harper could have been a Yankee and been in that DH cycle as well and saved some games because of it.


And the one that counts and what gets scrutinized more is the postseason at bats.

Harper OPS is .962
Judge’s OPS is .762

Look, I don't think that Harper is as good as Judge, but I do love his LH bat and I'm on record as saying that I would love to have him. However (isn't there always a however), it is not a comparison between Judge and Harper, but a discussion on the fact that Stanton was on the team. The Yankees had Judge when they acquired Stanton, but would have had both when they acquired Harper. That's the difference. Had they not acquired Stanton, Harper would have been a Yankee. I'll even go one further, had Ohtani allowed the Yankees to bid on him, he would have been a Yankee and they would not have traded for Stanton. Then they could have signed Harper and we would be looking at an Ohtani, Judge and Harper top of the lineup. How many HRs would Judge hit between the two MVP type LHs Ohtani and Harper.

[Kinkotheclown]

LHed, good contact, doesn't K a ton, but I don't know much about him defensively.

As far as the offer, I have no idea. With AZ rebuilding, I'm not sure Torres make a ton of sense. I would guess some kind of combo of Wells, Sweeney, Pereira ??

Lol
I just posted the post, 2 above this before I read yours

I said Wells, Pereira and Gil. So that might be a bit of an overpay but it's around the right price

As far as McCarthy and fielding

McCarthy rated -1 defensive runs saved at baseball reference and exactly 0 runs prevented above average according to statcast. There were times when McCarthy was not able to capitalize on his athleticism and he mishandled a few balls, although he was charged with just one error for the year. His rating on outfield jumps and route running was -1.4 feet vs. average. His arm strength also rated slightly below average as well.

I am less high on him after reading this but I still think he's a very interesting trade target.
From what I have read, he'd be an upgrade over Flo offensively but a downgrade defensively

[dayners81]

Lol
I just posted the post, 2 above this before I read yours

I said Wells, Pereira and Gil. So that might be a bit of an overpay but it's around the right price

As far as McCarthy and fielding

McCarthy rated -1 defensive runs saved at baseball reference and exactly 0 runs prevented above average according to statcast. There were times when McCarthy was not able to capitalize on his athleticism and he mishandled a few balls, although he was charged with just one error for the year. His rating on outfield jumps and route running was -1.4 feet vs. average. His arm strength also rated slightly below average as well.

I am less high on him after reading this but I still think he's a very interesting trade target.
From what I have read, he'd be an upgrade over Flo offensively but a downgrade defensively

Interesting... the word i got is offensively they love everything about him and think there is still some ceiling there.

Defensively, the skillset is much better than advertised. They know they can improved the arm strength, the speed and athleticism is there. He was a very good CFer in college , but now I guess he doesn't get the best reads, jumps and needs to work on routes. All those things can be significantly coached up and apparently this kid is a worker. Also if u have Judge if RF and Bader in CF, it's hard to imagine a young player doesn't get better playing next to those 2. Hell, Cabrera was a GG caliber defender in RF after 5 games, the can coach McCarthy up.

He 25 and if they are going to go with someone with flaws, I'd rather trade Wells and Pereira for this kid, vs spending 18+M on some of the other options

[dayners81]

Look, I don't think that Harper is as good as Judge, but I do love his LH bat and I'm on record as saying that I would love to have him. However (isn't there always a however), it is not a comparison between Judge and Harper, but a discussion on the fact that Stanton was on the team. The Yankees had Judge when they acquired Stanton, but would have had both when they acquired Harper. That's the difference. Had they not acquired Stanton, Harper would have been a Yankee. I'll even go one further, had Ohtani allowed the Yankees to bid on him, he would have been a Yankee and they would not have traded for Stanton. Then they could have signed Harper and we would be looking at an Ohtani, Judge and Harper top of the lineup. How many HRs would Judge hit between the two MVP type LHs Ohtani and Harper.

I didn't want Harper, I wanted Manny that yr. I might have backed the wrong horse on that one.

[dayners81]

Are you getting any sense of what needs to be offered for McCarthy?

I saw this
Miami Marlins get: McCarthy, INF Buddy Kennedy and RHP Edwin Uceta

D-backs get: LHP Jesus Luzardo and cash considerations

So for the Yankees,
Maybe Wells, Pereira and Gil get McCarthy? Or is that an overpay?

I am liking the idea of this kid more and more.

If they want a starter with upside, send the Schmidt or Gil. They have the time we don't to up the final touches on those guys.

The sense I'm getting is a younger pitcher like Schmidt, Gil or German, plus 1 top spec in the 4-10 range and a couple lower level guys. I'd run it through the simulator but that thing hasn't been right since the trade deadline.