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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    Trea Turner has signed with the Phillies for 11 years, 300 million. Not surprising, he stated he wanted to stay on the east coast when he got traded.


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    That's a bit of a bummer to lose him, especially because of how much we gave up get him here, but I trust the front office will put together another incredible team like they do every year. It's more a question of whether we'll bring up some of our top prospects (which are super highly touted) or if we'll go the free agent route to fill this and other openings.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Moves03 View Post
    That's a bit of a bummer to lose him, especially because of how much we gave up get him here, but I trust the front office will put together another incredible team like they do every year. It's more a question of whether we'll bring up some of our top prospects (which are super highly touted) or if we'll go the free agent route to fill this and other openings.
    I think we are gonna go the prospect route and save money for Ohtani next offseason.


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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    I think we are gonna go the prospect route and save money for Ohtani next offseason.


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    Yep, definitely looking like that. We have lots of top tier farm players who are overdue to make their majors debut so it will be interesting to see if those guys are the real deal.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Moves03 View Post
    Yep, definitely looking like that. We have lots of top tier farm players who are overdue to make their majors debut so it will be interesting to see if those guys are the real deal.
    Yeah I think Vargas takes over full time in the outfield for Bellinger. I think Busch takes over full time at 2nd and Lux moves full time to short. Either resign Turner or move Muncy to third full time.


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  5. #20
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    This Martinez signing is probably the best bang for the buck out there. It's an amazing signing to get him for 10 mil. Given how the market is right now, it's kind of absurd that we got him for so cheap. I think he will do a great job on our roster.

  6. #21
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    A little late but JT is signing with the Red Sox. 2 years, 22 million.


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  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    Yeah I think Vargas takes over full time in the outfield for Bellinger. I think Busch takes over full time at 2nd and Lux moves full time to short. Either resign Turner or move Muncy to third full time.


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    The one thing about Vargas is that I've read he's not great with the glove yet and so I think that could keep him from being in the lineup as much (although if how he's looked at the plate thus far is any indication, he looks to have the tools to be an amazing hitter and so I'm sure we'll find a spot for him. I think Busch will definitely get some playing time this year and if he performs he might lock up second. I'm a little iffy about have Lux as short full time, but it could definitely work since that's his actual position. Muncy at third makes sense (I am bummed that we weren't able to keep JT, as he was still an overall very good player and I think could've still helped this team a lot). That we didn't really make a play for him makes me think that we might be planning to bring up even more prospects. I actually wonder if the team will experiment with playing Will Smith at 3rd occasionally and bring up Cartaya, who has been ranked as our top prospect for over a year now.

  8. #23
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    Man, itís so gratifying to go back and see your contributions, which were criticized to no end, validated with time

    I did say Iíd come back and say ďtold ya soĒ



    https://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sh...ng-Ahead/page6

    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Just some quick rebuttals and Iím done because, as per usual, this is a silly argument...

    1) if you think defense in CF is as important as defense at SS, then thereís no arguing with you. Iíve played every position on the diamond, mostly staying away from 1st and 3rd. C and SS are the most important defensive positions. CF defense is the most vital OF spot, but itís still OF. A good outfielder accounts for just over 2 outs per game. There are plenty of games where individual OF-ers donít even get an opportunity to make a play.

    Donít agree? Letís position it like this - would you be more comfortable moving Mike Trout to SS or Lindor to CF? No way in hell is anyone taking the former.

    2) So your suggestion is to sign Bellinger because OFers of his caliber are rare, but you could go grab any of Seager, Correa, Lindor, etc? ... BUT youíd have to pay them... and theyíre going to make more money than Bellinger on the open market - you can count on that... because they play more vital positions. You may want to sell it this way, but great offensive SSs arenít growing on trees. It just so happens that a couple of draft classes produced some really good ones in close proximity.

    3) Seager is not a bad defender. Seager is actually a pretty damn solid defender and heíd be an excellent defensive 3B, which is where I play if he takes an extension.

    4) ďSmall sample sizeĒ is such an overused, generic go-to. It can explain anomalies, but with regard to specifics occurrences, it assumes that people are not watching whatís happening. Bellingerís .631 OPS has not been a matter of small sample size, itís been a matter of an awful approach. Anyone who has watched his PAs knows what I mean. This was his best postseason in that regard, and it really wasnít great outside of a few at-bats in key moments.

    5) Why do you always act like youíre bringing up a point I didnít make myself?

    Again - I clearly stated that Seager has had a history with health.

    I also stated that Iím more confident in Seager having better health than Belli moving forward.

    Why? Because Seager is built like a brick shithouse and has an easy (even if violent) swing generated by his lower body. Bellingerís swing looks beautiful, but thereís nothing easy about it and itís going to sap his power some day, maybe a lot sooner than later.

    Again, I wonít be mad if they extend Bellinger, they still have some time to prove it all out with him.

    But if they skip on Seager and/or Lindor, and Bellinger breaks down... well, Iíll be sure to come back to this forum and say I told ya so...

    In fact, I might dig up some old debates we have just for ***** and giggles

  9. #24
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    I wish I could say I hate being right all the damn time butÖ seriouslyÖ I donít. The only argument for this NOT being the worst FA signing of all time is that, from a monetary standpoint, he wasnít paid durning his two year suspension. Yet, literally every red flag materialized and now weíre on the hook for $22.6M and the team doesnít want him around.

    Dodgers have the leadership to rein him in I was told.
    Heís a great teammate I was told.
    Top 3 pitcher I was told.
    Money is no object I was told.
    Iím prejudiced against his politics I was told.



    https://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-rumor...022/12/31/amp/
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 12-31-2022 at 01:15 PM.

  10. #25
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    Happy New Year to all of you that didnít call me stupid for my takes

    Anyhow, I know it feels like shouting into the ether these days, but Iím sure some of you guys still peruse the site from time to time so I thought Iíd ask leading into decision making week, how do we handle the Bauer situation?

    Clearly the PR move is to cut Bauer immediately. As much as it pains me to say it, however, itís also not the thatís the most logical move from a resource standpoint.

    A willingness to eat $22.6M is the strongest statement the FO could make, but I wouldnít fault them for keeping him on the roster long enough to see if a trade might help us recover something and save some money. If no team is willing to take a flyer on him, we can cut him later. The part thatís hard to swallow is making room for him on the 26 at the cost of someone who is not a human garbage can.

  11. #26
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  12. #27
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    Tell Manfred to get rid of the extra-inning rule and I'll be back posting again.

    Future Hall of Shamers:
    (1) B.A.L.C.O. Barroids (2) Mark McJuicer (3) Jose Chem-seco (4) Rafael Palmeiroids (5) Ken Chem-initi (6) Jason Gi-andro (7) Ryan Fraud (8) Muscle Melk (9) Woman-Ram (10) Shammy Sosa (11) Roger Clear-mens (12) A-Roid (13) Ryan HGHoward (14) Fernando (shrunken) Testis Jr.

  13. #28
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    Jacob Amaya for Miguel Rojas is an interesting trade which walked me down a bit of a rabbit hole about what this seemingly negligible acquisition means for the future landscape of baseball.

    Oddly enough, Iím starting at the steroid eraÖ

    We tend to associate the Steroid Era with the longball but, in reality, the recent launch angle revolution has produced significantly more home runs than the steroid era ever did. So why was the steroid era so much more effective at consistently producing offense and generating more in game excitement?

    Itís no secret that league-wide batting averages have taken a steady and significant plunge over the decades since the end of the Steroid Era which I personally define as existing from 1993-2009, really blooming much earlier than 1993 with lingering vestiges beyond 2009.

    While league-wide home runs saw a progressive tremendous jump over Ď93 and Ď94, equally important to offensive production of the era is that, though there was a negligible increase in strikeout rate, there was a significant spike in BABIP. BABIP measures batting average on balls hit into the field of play; it does not consider home runs or strike outs. Players with high line drive rates and better hard hit rates tend to perform better by this metric. When the league is collectively hitting more line drives with better hard hit rates, the league will perform better by this metric.

    In recent years league average BABIP has been considered to be .300, but that wasnít always the case. In fact, in 55 seasons from 1938 through 1992, the league never produced a BABIP greater than .289 which it only did once in 1987. However, the league saw a spike in BABIP from .285 in 1992 to .294 in 1993 with only a negligible increase in strikeouts. Low strikeout rate means more balls in play, and more balls in play with higher BABIP means significantly more hits. The league saw another BABIP increase to .300 in Ď94 and continued to hang roughly around there throughout 2017. In the 4 seasons from 2018 through 2022, however, BABIP has significantly started to decline.

    Within the last 5 years, and more broadly the last 10, the league has seen a significant and widespread use of defensive shifts and teams have become significantly more intelligent in deploying them.

    Just about every team has adopted more more frequent and aggressive shifts over that period years. Baseball Savant data shows that teams league-wide deployed a shift 12.5% of the time in 2016, a number which has steadily climbed and nearly tripled to 33.6% through 2022. One might surmise BABIP suggests there is no significant difference between hitting against a shift or hitting against a traditional alignment. However, over that last few seasons the league has successfully - and detrimentally - reduced BABIP from a steady ~.300 between 1993-2017 down to .296, and .298, before hitting successive post-Steroid Era lows of .292 in both 2018 and 2019, followed by a new a new 30-year low of .290 last season.

    Despite the success of defenses at reducing league-wide BABIP, itís still a bit of a myopic scope when analyzing the effectiveness of the shift. The shift is not necessarily the sole cause for decreased batting averages but, directly or indirectly, it certainly is a significant factor. Thereís a bit of a symbiotic relationship between the shift and the introduction of the launch angle revolution and those two factors have had the most significant effect on batting averages.

    Additionally, consider that over the last couple of seasons, MLB began efforts to encourage offenses to move back toward something that resembles a more traditional look. In 2021 and 2022, the league began introducing a heavier baseball in an effort to reduce home runs. It was effective. The 30 year low BABIP referenced above would seem to have been, in part, caused by balls staying in the park and falling short for long outs as introduction of the heavier baseballs led to a significant league wide decrease in home runs. In 2022, the league produced 1.07 home runs per team game; the least amount of home runs since 2015 when the league finished with 1.01 per team game. From 2016 through 2021, the league averaged 1.24 HR per team game with a peak of 1.39 in 2019 (an astronomical 23% higher than 2022).

    Hitters have fundamentally changed their approach to beat the shift which has led to another astronomical upward trend; league wide strikeouts.

    Players have been trying to beat the shift with the long ball since this trend started, which has led to big swings with huge holes. In 2016 the league crossed the 8 strikeouts per team game threshold for the first time in league history, and over the seven seasons between 2016 and 2022 the league averaged 8.48 strikeouts per team game.

    Consider this simplified scenarioÖ

    Team A has to play against Player 1. They know the guy well. He hits the ball very hard but has a strong pull tendency. Theyíve implemented the shift the last few times they played him and itís been very effective.

    Player 1 feels heís hit the ball really hard against Team A the last few times out but is frustrated that the shift has robbed him of some hits. As a traditional pull ball power hitter, he realizes that striking out is no worse than lining out right into the shift so he puts more loft in his swing. He realizes the increased upward trajectory at his contact point means that heís more likely to hit the ball high and far when he makes contact, but also significantly more likely to miss the ball altogether, and itís a sacrifice heís willing to make. Moving forward he hits more home runs and makes less outs into the shift, but also sees a sharp increase in strikeouts and swinging strikes.

    The rest of the teams in the league see this and realize itís an effective strategy. More teams shift, more players add loft. Soon, players on the farm begin sacrificing contact rates for power numbers because the current trend in ďthe showĒ is that players need to hit home runs to beat the shift.

    The shift strategy changes the swing path of everyone. It changes the way teams evaluate hit tools. It changes the way young players from the minors all the way down to little league perceive what a good swing looks like. It encourages more home runs, more strikeouts, and vilifies the simple act of bunting to beat it.

    That is the reality of the league today.

    In 2018, team batting averages dropped below .250 for the first time since 1972, and they have now been below that mark in 3 of the 4 years since. For comparison, for the decade of 2000-2009 league batting average was never lower than .261, with a high of .270 in 2000. Batting averages started seeing a significant uptick in 1993 when the league hit a collective .265. For the 8 seasons between then and 2000, the league never hit below .265 and eclipsed .270 in half of those years.

    Which brings us back to 2022 where the league finished with a batting average of .243, the lowest since 1968. Advanced metrics, the shift, and launch angle have fundamentally changed the way the game has been played since 2010, add that to the introduction of a heavier baseball and we have the perfect storm culminating in the second worst OPS the league has seen in 3 decades.

    And now we come full circle. Miguel Rojas seems to have become a rather hot commodity this offseason and I think that possibly represents the tipping point among analytical front offices.

    I have long suspected that the elimination of aggressive shifts will begin to shape a new the landscape for effective MLB roster building. We are going to see a bit of a renaissance for speedy players, contact hitters, and defensive specialists. We will see strikeout rates continue to decrease along with home run rates. Batting averages, hits, and stolen bases will increase. 5 years ago it might have made sense to invest $300M+ in a player like Seager or Turner to man shortstop but, in the new league, the lack of ability to shift means teams will no longer be able to cover for the defensive shortcomings of their prime positions which will make deals for players like Lindor and Correa look significantly better.

    Rojas is a defensive gem and, though some might expect him to be the new Hanser Alberto, I fully expect that he was acquired to compete for the starting SS job largely because the Dodgers sent out Jacob Amaya in exchange. Amaya, to me, profiles as Rojas with a higher ceiling. It would appear the Dodgers want an elite defensive SS heading into the season and donít feel Amaya is ready for the big leagues. If the Dodgers didnít intend to have Rojas start, then sending out Amaya makes little sense as they couldíve given him a taste of the majors in the utility role.

    In either case, if this otherwise relatively small move does signal anything with regard to a league wide refocus on prime defensive positions and roles, then Iím excited for what the next few years will bring across the league. Hopefully it brings about the return of the Ozzie Smithís of the world, with more action in the field of play and on the basepaths.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 01-14-2023 at 01:38 PM.

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