2022-2023 Cubs Offseason Free Agent & Trade Thread

[Stratos]

Abreu didn’t hit as many home runs this year , but he still a good hitter . Defensively he has actually gotten better since the 2020 short season and actually ended with 1 OAA this year . I would be okay with him on a 2 year / 34-36 mil deal . He averaged 16.7 per on his last extension I believe .

Between Mervis / Wisdom / Abreu they can cover those DH / 1B ABS . Wouldn’t hate him at all .


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Yeah I agree, he's a great backup for Mervis too given he's a RHH. Abreu could also play 1B and Wisdom DH vs a tough lefty. Although Mervis might be able to hit a tough lefty better than Wisdom lol.

What is of note that Abreu's power (ISO) went down significantly last year while his K% also did, he had a very Happ-ish season. Career lows in both numbers, and career highs in BB% last 2 seasons.

[chibears55]

What does “overspend” mean to you? If the players are there this year and they have the money to spend, why keep it. Next year they lose Heyward’s contract, for sure. Maybe Happ and Stroman. They also lose Hendricks. So why can’t they spend this year, what is needed to compete? And they can win in 23’. They just have to make a commitment to spend money like a major revenue team.

What im saying is, i dont think he going to spend every penny he can in one offseason on multiple players that looking for big multi year deals and will leave room to be able to add a big FA each offseason if needed and or make a deadline trade for someone that a team looking to unload their contract for.
I just think he looking to manage yearly payroll better to where it will leave him flexibility to be able to add a big contract each season if he needs to.


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[chibears55]

You can't just look to the present in FA if you're signing a guy for a lot of money for 8-10 years. You have to factor every single season over the length of the deal. Hoyer is trying to build a sustainable winner. Signing a bad deal to make next year better is illogical. A team like the Cubs has a chance to sign usually 1 or 2 big contracts on a payroll. It's a franchise-defining decision over the course of an entire decade. It's the biggest decision any franchise will make. The wrong decision can sink several wins from a team per season. The difference in the Angels investing in Pujols vs Trout is massive. So you better be very confident that the player you choose is the right player. This is basically what Hoyer is saying. He's not saying they aren't going to spend this offseason.

Right, maybe my wording isnt good but this is where i was going with my thoughts.

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[CP_414]

When Pujols signed with LAA he had a 167 career wRC+ and 81 fWAR. As far as we knew at the time he was going into his age 32 season.

He got a couple years too many on that deal, but anyone who said at the time that he’d be worth 5.7 fWAR over the next 10 years would have been laughed at.

If you sign a mega contract there is a lot of risk. Nobody can predict exactly which ones will work out and which ones won’t be “intelligent spending” and which ones will completely tank. An owner/executive is either comfortable taking that risk or they have to accept that it will be very hard for them to sign a superstar free agent. The alternative will be paying a significantly higher AAV to reduce the years on the deal and if you aren’t able to really max out a payroll year-to-year then paying a significantly higher AAV will weaken your team.

I believe Jed does have hesitations with long term deals, but they either have to do it anyway or accept that they aren’t getting the best free agents. If they aren’t adding true star level free agents the path to building a very good team looks a lot tougher.

[chibears55]

I think Jed said that he had an additional 23 million that he chose not to spend. They're end of season tax number was 175 million. Is he saying that the budget was 198 million? That's what it sounds like to me. So they also said that they are going to "roll over" that money in to next season. Is next years budget going to be knocking at the tax threshold door now?

Threshold is 233 Mil for 2023, im guessing he tries to not go much over 200+ in order to have money to be able to add during the season/deadline.

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[CP_414]

Threshold is 233 Mil for 2023, im guessing he tries to not go much over 200+ in order to have money to be able to add during the season/deadline.

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If the plan is to spend near the tax they certainly don’t need to hold back $30 million for the deadline. $10 million is plenty since you’d only be picking up 1/3rd of a 2023 contract at the deadline. $10 million would basically allow you to take on $30 million in 2023 contracts without getting any money back from the other team (assuming the cubs are buyers).

I have no idea if the plan is to spend up to the tax in 2023. I doubt it, but I think that would be great if they do it.

[Stratos]

When Pujols signed with LAA he had a 167 career wRC+ and 81 fWAR. As far as we knew at the time he was going into his age 32 season.

He got a couple years too many on that deal, but anyone who said at the time that he’d be worth 5.7 fWAR over the next 10 years would have been laughed at.

If you sign a mega contract there is a lot of risk. Nobody can predict exactly which ones will work out and which ones won’t be “intelligent spending” and which ones will completely tank. An owner/executive is either comfortable taking that risk or they have to accept that it will be very hard for them to sign a superstar free agent. The alternative will be paying a significantly higher AAV to reduce the years on the deal and if you aren’t able to really max out a payroll year-to-year then paying a significantly higher AAV will weaken your team.

I believe Jed does have hesitations with long term deals, but they either have to do it anyway or accept that they aren’t getting the best free agents. If they aren’t adding true star level free agents the path to building a very good team looks a lot tougher.

I agree for the most part. I'd also say that I think not adding superstar FA's can make the path to winning harder, but I don't think as hard as it may seem. Teams still have that money to spend on other players, plus it also seems like every season there is at least 1 all-star or superstar caliber player that is looking for a shorterm deal. We could have signed Correa and Rodon last year but we didn't, or Verlander. But those guys also sometimes come with risk, usually injury risk which is why they're often looking for short-term.

I think a lot of good free agents come with risks, whether age, money & deal length, injury, inflating stats through cheating etc. I guess it's what a team is comfortable accepting, and what the data projects.

I have confidence that any major decisions Jed is considering is backed by a lot of data about different kinds of contracts and risks. I have no idea what the data says on contracts so I trust this FO to make informed decisions like that.

I also think it's worth investing in depth. It's nice to sign the superstar, but it's also nice when someone gets hurt to have someone who's better than replacement value filling in. In 2022 if we had another infielder or SP who was capable of 2-3 WAR it would have went a long way. It really sucks when guys like Bote and McKinstry get a few hundred PAs. I'm glad they invested in C depth last offseason.

[cuzi]

You can't just look to the present in FA if you're signing a guy for a lot of money for 8-10 years. You have to factor every single season over the length of the deal. Hoyer is trying to build a sustainable winner. Signing a bad deal to make next year better is illogical. A team like the Cubs has a chance to sign usually 1 or 2 big contracts on a payroll. It's a franchise-defining decision over the course of an entire decade. It's the biggest decision any franchise will make. The wrong decision can sink several wins from a team per season. The difference in the Angels investing in Pujols vs Trout is massive. So you better be very confident that the player you choose is the right player. This is basically what Hoyer is saying. He's not saying they aren't going to spend this offseason.

You are taking what I'm saying out of context.

I'm not saying dont weigh the risk of a long term deal in FA. I'm saying don't look at who potentially could be available 1, 2, or 3 years from now and let that make your decision on the player that is for sure available and in front of you right now. Don't let the guy that you like and may or may not be available year(s) down the road be the reason you aren't spending a "large sum of money" on the current roster. There's more than 1 combination of players that can make a winning team. 4 teams this year won 100+ games. They all had 26 different players.

[ILMindState]

Does anyone read these letters and think “wow, that was great. I’m glad he sent it.”

Lots of nothing and one sentence about “being active in free agency” that everyone will quote if they aren’t active in free agency (I assume they will be).

Sounds the same as the one from last year

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[Stratos]

You are taking what I'm saying out of context.

I'm not saying dont weigh the risk of a long term deal in FA. I'm saying don't look at who potentially could be available 1, 2, or 3 years from now and let that make your decision on the player that is for sure available and in front of you right now. Don't let the guy that you like and may or may not be available year(s) down the road be the reason you aren't spending a "large sum of money" on the current roster. There's more than 1 combination of players that can make a winning team. 4 teams this year won 100+ games. They all had 26 different players.

Yes I agree with this concept. No one free agent is make or break any season. There's always many ways you can spend 35 million dollars to improve a team, for example.

I think Jed is just saying that yeah they look at future FA classes and factor it in. He said free agent classes basically don't change. 2 or 3 years from now you essentially know what the player pool will be in FA. Of course, you don't know who will extend either, so i'm sure they factor that as well.

Guys are less likely to extend the closer they are to FA too, especially position players. A player typically wants to extend for less money rather than hit FA because there's a risk they will get hurt or their performance will drop before they hit FA, so they rather take the guaranteed money. Trying to extend a good position player who only is a year out from FA is going to be tough.

[rcal10]

Yes I agree with this concept. No one free agent is make or break any season. There's always many ways you can spend 35 million dollars to improve a team, for example.

I think Jed is just saying that yeah they look at future FA classes and factor it in. He said free agent classes basically don't change. 2 or 3 years from now you essentially know what the player pool will be in FA. Of course, you don't know who will extend either, so i'm sure they factor that as well.

Guys are less likely to extend the closer they are to FA too, especially position players. A player typically wants to extend for less money rather than hit FA because there's a risk they will get hurt or their performance will drop before they hit FA, so they rather take the guaranteed money. Trying to extend a good position player who only is a year out from FA is going to be tough.

As long as smart spending includes spending large sums of money and a lot of years on a star even if it means he might be paid too long, I agree with you. There are just some guys who will get money beyond their best days. And if the Cubs want a star player they have to realize that. What you don’t want is that crazy 13 year deal of Cabrera where the last 5 sucked, or the Heyward contract where it never worked. If Correa or Turner will only take an 8 or 9 year deal and they they are only stars for 6 or 7 of those years that has to be considered smart spending. I think as a major market team they need to factor that in as a cost of getting the star. A team of the Cubs resources should
be able to have an overpriced guy or two and still be good. I agree, you can’t have 4 guys in the team that you know 6 years from now they will all fall off. But you can have one, and then spend on other guys on deals up to 6 year. Ok with with a 1 year deal all the way to 6 with other guys.

[jfoley89]

Correa was worth 4.4 WAR and played 130 games this year before opting out. What do you think the Cubs should throw at him?

[Cubs420]

I want Correa bad.

I love Trea Turner but he's older than Correa and I'm worried that Turner's speed will disappear over the years.

Correa is only 28 ( and will be basically the entire year next year) He's got a great track record and he's a stud in the postseason.

Correa plz.

[Cubs420]

If the plan is to spend near the tax they certainly don’t need to hold back $30 million for the deadline. $10 million is plenty since you’d only be picking up 1/3rd of a 2023 contract at the deadline. $10 million would basically allow you to take on $30 million in 2023 contracts without getting any money back from the other team (assuming the cubs are buyers).

I have no idea if the plan is to spend up to the tax in 2023. I doubt it, but I think that would be great if they do it.

I bet you they don't spend up to the tax until 2024.

good chunk of money will be spent this offseason with a little left over to plug the remaining holes in the 2024 offseason

[The20thK]

I bet you they don't spend up to the tax until 2024.

good chunk of money will be spent this offseason with a little left over to plug the remaining holes in the 2024 offseason

Not that I think they will but even if they spent all the way to tax threshold in 2023, they’d have almost 60m coming off the books in 2024 between Heyward, Hendricks and Stroman.