With anemic second half what do Brewers look like in 2023?

[crewfan13]

If we had to pick one of the guys to extend given what we think they might sign for, I would pick Adames I think. He's the youngest and I just don't super trust pitchers long term. Burnes would probably be the most expensive of the bunch, followed by Adames then woody, but I still think I'd take Adames.

[gopackgo87]

If we had to pick one of the guys to extend given what we think they might sign for, I would pick Adames I think. He's the youngest and I just don't super trust pitchers long term. Burnes would probably be the most expensive of the bunch, followed by Adames then woody, but I still think I'd take Adames.

I just don't trust Adames. He had a sub-.300 OBP. He is a pretty dang good defensive SS but idk. He has a 111 OPS+ career and 112 OPS+ this year so I mean that's probably kind of who he is. These should be his best years....I agree I just like Woodruff. Not super trusting of pitchers either but I don't think Woodruff is going to break the bank and a solid 15 mill per would def sign him to like 5-75. I am not anti-Adames but I wouldn't give him a huge $$$ deal. 5-100 type OK

[gopackgo87]

Also I wouldn't mind waiting the market out and see if a team overpays a return for Adames if they miss out on the Big 4 in FA this winter

[crewfan13]

Thing with Willy was his babip was super low this past year. Even with him swinging for more power, I think he won't sit that low again. If you would have bumped his babip up to .325, it would have given him 17 more hits. Even if all 17 of those hits were just singles, his slash line last year would have been .268/.329/.488. Put solid defense and 30 homers with that slash line and that's a really nice player.

If someone wants to blow us away with an offer then fine, but I think that's a nice cornerstone type piece.

[gopackgo87]

What a steal of a deal for William Contreras. Crazy. A++ move by Arnold.

[gopackgo87]

Thing with Willy was his babip was super low this past year. Even with him swinging for more power, I think he won't sit that low again. If you would have bumped his babip up to .325, it would have given him 17 more hits. Even if all 17 of those hits were just singles, his slash line last year would have been .268/.329/.488. Put solid defense and 30 homers with that slash line and that's a really nice player.

If someone wants to blow us away with an offer then fine, but I think that's a nice cornerstone type piece.

Seeing the $$ these SS are getting on the market has to make Adames salivate lol. No way an extension is happening in MKE now imo. Hopefully a team that misses out on the top-4 SS will come and overpay for Adames with a big return for MKE.

[crewfan13]

The Contreras deal was a heck of a deal. No idea why Oakland allegedly moved Ruiz so damn much, but great job by us capitalizing on that. Haven't loved our offseason so far but that move was a home run. Contreras isn't an elite defender, but we've done a good job with improvement in catcher's defense. Narvaez was supposed to be a terrible defender and ended up sucking at offense and was a really good defender. But even if Contreras doesn't improve a ton in defense, his bat is good enough to play as a DH and part time catcher long term.

I still go the other way on Adames. We haven't developed a home grown bat in ages. Hooefully chourio is that guy, but it's been dreadful. If we aren't willing to extend a guy like Adames, ownership might as well just sell. Extending pitchers always worries me. Seen too many guys injure and arm and then never be the same. But Adames is good enough to be a really solid guy for a long time. Maybe for the perfect deal, but if SS is going to be this expensive, it's not gonna get cheaper to get one with a decent bat.

[gopackgo87]

The Contreras deal was a heck of a deal. No idea why Oakland allegedly moved Ruiz so damn much, but great job by us capitalizing on that. Haven't loved our offseason so far but that move was a home run. Contreras isn't an elite defender, but we've done a good job with improvement in catcher's defense. Narvaez was supposed to be a terrible defender and ended up sucking at offense and was a really good defender. But even if Contreras doesn't improve a ton in defense, his bat is good enough to play as a DH and part time catcher long term.

I still go the other way on Adames. We haven't developed a home grown bat in ages. Hooefully chourio is that guy, but it's been dreadful. If we aren't willing to extend a guy like Adames, ownership might as well just sell. Extending pitchers always worries me. Seen too many guys injure and arm and then never be the same. But Adames is good enough to be a really solid guy for a long time. Maybe for the perfect deal, but if SS is going to be this expensive, it's not gonna get cheaper to get one with a decent bat.

I don't know I mean I would expect Willy to be asking for Swanson money and I think for him I don't know why he'd sign a contract even remotely close to less than $25 million annually for 6 or 7 years. He is going to be that SS class best FA and that probably is on the low end. I just don't see how that is going to get done. Brewers don't want to pay that much and he's going to probably test the market.

[crewfan13]

But if we aren't willing to pay him, who are we willing to pay? That's the piece of it that gets me. I'm sick of crying poor. If that's the case, Mark needs to sell the team. SS isn't going to get any cheaper. Adames is an all star or so caliber player who is 27. I know yelich didnt pan out, but if we can't afford to keep our own young talent around, then what's the point? And to me, I worry less about long term injury issues for position guys than pitchers, so I'd lean to extend Adames more than the pitchers. I always worry with arms that one major arm issue can change mechanics and alter spin rates and release points and all of that. Many guys recover their velocity after Tommy John and some even throw harder, but I always worry that those surgeries have the risk of altering spin or command. Even minor changes in those things can have huge impacts. I know yelich is a horror story for positional players having injuries that impact them long term, but generally speaking, that's more of the exception.

I'm sick of this stupid semi-compete ********. If we aren't going to extend our young players, then load up to build around them now or sell them for max value. None of this stupid let's sell Wong and Renfroe for spare parts of hope everything falls into place. The division is not very good. Instead of pushing all in to try to win it and actually be a good team, we want to be just good enough that if things break right or st Louis falters a bit, then we can be good.

[gopackgo87]

But if we aren't willing to pay him, who are we willing to pay? That's the piece of it that gets me. I'm sick of crying poor. If that's the case, Mark needs to sell the team. SS isn't going to get any cheaper. Adames is an all star or so caliber player who is 27. I know yelich didnt pan out, but if we can't afford to keep our own young talent around, then what's the point? And to me, I worry less about long term injury issues for position guys than pitchers, so I'd lean to extend Adames more than the pitchers. I always worry with arms that one major arm issue can change mechanics and alter spin rates and release points and all of that. Many guys recover their velocity after Tommy John and some even throw harder, but I always worry that those surgeries have the risk of altering spin or command. Even minor changes in those things can have huge impacts. I know yelich is a horror story for positional players having injuries that impact them long term, but generally speaking, that's more of the exception.

I'm sick of this stupid semi-compete ********. If we aren't going to extend our young players, then load up to build around them now or sell them for max value. None of this stupid let's sell Wong and Renfroe for spare parts of hope everything falls into place. The division is not very good. Instead of pushing all in to try to win it and actually be a good team, we want to be just good enough that if things break right or st Louis falters a bit, then we can be good.

Yeah I tend to agree but I just don't see why Adames would sign an extension either. I agree on the cry poor BS and it's odd the fans who seem good with it...MA isn't losing money. Guys like Drury or Myers would have been steals but 8.5 mill seemed too rich for their blood for the top 3B on the market a consistent offensive producer? It's wild. But I just don't see why Adames would sign....he likely gets an overpay taking it to FA in 2024 as easily the best SS on market.

I also can't stand the semi-compete. CC said the Brewers weren't done adding after the trades but then also went on to say how exciting it is for young players to get up and get the chance to play....I don't expect Brewers to do anything else impactful as far as a bat.....team needs to add some reliable pen guys imo.

[crewfan13]

The braves keep pulling it off somehow and extending their young guys. So there has to be some desire by players to get that stability. No idea Adames' personal feelings on it or anything, but getting the cost certainty can be good for both player and team. Again, it's possible Willy wants to wait until FA, but not having to rely on arb the next 2 years or risking getting hurt and maybe having to take a 1 year prove it deal can be enticing. Don't think he takes a massive discount or anything, but teams have been able to pull it off.

I agree on the player stuff too. No idea of Drury can actually repeat last year. Myers isn't all that good, but 2 years at $8-10 mill a year is worth the risk.

I saw a projected expenses for every team in a tweet. Brewers were like 19th or something, but the biggest thing that jumped out was that there was a massive tier break at 16. Teams 18-20 we're spending low $130s to mid $120s. Teams 17 and you were spending $175+. And it was like a $3-5 mill gap between each until you got to the real upper end teams. Spending doesn't equal wins by any means, but looking at the list, if we want to be every year competitors, we need our payroll to closer to $165-170. I know we'll never be the Mets, Yankees or dodgers. But if we can't be in the same spend tier as teams like St Louis and Colorado, we're screwed.

And like we've both said, if you're not gonna be in that tier, then consistently being in the $130s is dumb too. It's basically like being the Herb Kohl Bucks. Never bad enough to meaningfully improve but never good enough to actually compete. If we are unwilling to spend $165+ on payroll, then we have to do the tank and push all in runs. Which means right now, identify that your team isn't good enough and sell your good players off for prospects. Get a good draft pick and take college guys who are close to Chourio's time frame and go all in for a few seasons when all those young guys come up together.

[gopackgo87]

The braves keep pulling it off somehow and extending their young guys. So there has to be some desire by players to get that stability. No idea Adames' personal feelings on it or anything, but getting the cost certainty can be good for both player and team. Again, it's possible Willy wants to wait until FA, but not having to rely on arb the next 2 years or risking getting hurt and maybe having to take a 1 year prove it deal can be enticing. Don't think he takes a massive discount or anything, but teams have been able to pull it off.

I agree on the player stuff too. No idea of Drury can actually repeat last year. Myers isn't all that good, but 2 years at $8-10 mill a year is worth the risk.

I saw a projected expenses for every team in a tweet. Brewers were like 19th or something, but the biggest thing that jumped out was that there was a massive tier break at 16. Teams 18-20 we're spending low $130s to mid $120s. Teams 17 and you were spending $175+. And it was like a $3-5 mill gap between each until you got to the real upper end teams. Spending doesn't equal wins by any means, but looking at the list, if we want to be every year competitors, we need our payroll to closer to $165-170. I know we'll never be the Mets, Yankees or dodgers. But if we can't be in the same spend tier as teams like St Louis and Colorado, we're screwed.

And like we've both said, if you're not gonna be in that tier, then consistently being in the $130s is dumb too. It's basically like being the Herb Kohl Bucks. Never bad enough to meaningfully improve but never good enough to actually compete. If we are unwilling to spend $165+ on payroll, then we have to do the tank and push all in runs. Which means right now, identify that your team isn't good enough and sell your good players off for prospects. Get a good draft pick and take college guys who are close to Chourio's time frame and go all in for a few seasons when all those young guys come up together.

The issue wouldn't be so bad if the Brewers actually developed players consistently. But they don't....the Cardinals are successful consistently because they go out and spend a decent amount 170M range and they develop young pitching consistently. THe Brewers cupboard in the immediate is pretty bare pitching wise behind the development of current SP and haven't developed a 1B or 3B bat in decades and what maybe 2 MI. It's wild how little they have gotten from their system when you're a small market team you need that.

I do agree it does feel similar to Brewers but in baseball it's a little 'easier' to just get in and do damage in the playoffs. But the Brewers either need to become phenomenal developing talent or spend more but ideally both.

crewfan, you think Turang is starting OD?

[crewfan13]

At this pace, it seems like turang gets a shot at opening day. Now, I'm not even sure who we open with, so maybe. It exactly opening day, but I would guess with the current roster that some combo of turang, Urias and Mike B get the majority of starts at 2B and 3B. If for some reason we face a lefty to start, then he probably doesn't get a chance, but right now I'd think it's the 3 of them. Toro possibly has a shot to beat turang out as well with a good spring, so he would seem to be in the mix. But as of right now, it has to be those 4 for 2nd and 3rd. At the end of the day, Turang has almost 800 PAs at AAA, not really sure there's much more he can do at that level.

[gopackgo87]

Yeah I mean it seems like the Brewers just have 15 guys who are all the same at 2B/3B types. Just sign one friggin' guy who can play there everyday. It's so sad watching them last few years signing Brock Holt and Eric Sogard and then looking for upgrades 50 games in every year. JUST SIGN A GUY! If Brewers signed a Drury or someone at 3B not sure Longo can play 100 games anymore but if they did get a 3B, Urias could play 2B and spot start at 3B etc then Turang may start year in AAA...but rn I think as you said why go with an Abarham Toro or some clown like that. Just play Turang.

[crewfan13]

Yea, id rather we trade Urias (who I actually really like btw) for some pitching depth and then spend a bunch of money for a 3B. I know the market is pretty barren now for 3B, and maybe Urias is part of a trade for a 3B or something, but put that with turang at 2nd and I'd be good.