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  1. #2371
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    So, who's going to be off the the current 40 man roster? Whether it's a trade, DFA, or what not. I'll take a shot at it.

    Brault
    Dermody
    Leiter
    Miley
    Mills
    Newcomb
    Smyly
    Willy
    Bote
    McKinstry
    Schwindel
    Simmons
    Hermosillo
    JHey
    Ortega

    There's a lot of dead weight to be removed. A lot.
    I think McKinstry stays. Maybe Newcomb survives but I agree on the rest. I could see Smyly or Miley getting resigned but they’ll first leave the 40 man when they hit free agency.

    Bote probably survives because of the contract if he can be optioned again next year. If he’s out of options I think there’s a good chance they eat his deal too.

  2. #2372
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusader View Post
    Hahaha. I thought you had a doctorate in physics and mathematics? We literally picked someone up the scrapheap that's better than 1/3 of the teams 3Bs. Someone who ranks according to ESPN's site, 79th in total fwar (https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders...false/count/51). That's a clown statement.

    What would it take for someone to be interesting then when they are getting paid next to nothing? Top 10 in WAR? I mean, more than McKinstry?



    Yeah, I could see why they gave him more ABs. I wasn't opposed to them pulling the plug there as well.
    You are bad at reading. But that's fine.

    Again, QUALIFIED HITTERS.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ate=&page=5_30

    Include hitters who don't qualify, and he's 125th. He's incredibly replaceable. He's not good. He has no future on this team in any meaningful or useful way. There is nothing interesting about him.

    YOU ARE NOT MY PEERS

  3. #2373
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    McKinstry should be way more interesting to you than David Bote and Patrick Wisdom. McKinstry just turned 27 and has obliterated the minors at every stop. He's had a couple bad showings in the MLB, but it's amounted to 200PA, not 1200.

    There is nothing interesting about Patrick Wisdom. He is what he is. We know what he is. Playing him more this year is going to do nothing to help us in the future. At all. We have good data on the player that is Patrick Wisdom. He's a below average to average-ish player.

    We have erratic data on McKinstry. McKinstry is also younger. It is possible an adjustment has been worked on and he's a better player than he was. Why the hell would we not try to find out if he's something for the sake of playing a guy who is probably better but doesn't actually matter to the future of this team at all?
    Because he's 27? That's 2 years difference between Wisdom and Schwindel when they came up, and actually played well. That's a year older than Bote was when he put up .257 avg, .362 obp, .422 slg at the MLB level.


    "But if we hope for that we see not, then do we with patience wait for it."

    - Romans 8:25

  4. #2374
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusader View Post
    Because he's 27? That's 2 years difference between Wisdom and Schwindel when they came up, and actually played well. That's a year older than Bote was when he put up .257 avg, .362 obp, .422 slg at the MLB level.
    He hasn't had a chance to not play well. What's your point? It's not like Wisdom played well in his stints prior to the Cubs. And yes, it is older than he was. But McKinstry has a minor league history far better than any of them can even dream of having had.

    And yes, a guy's 28, 29, 30, and 31 seasons are far more interesting to me than a guy's 31, 32, 33, and 34 seasons.

    The latter is Wisdom the next 4 years. The former is McKinstry the next 4 years. If McKinstry is something, we should find out. There's nothing to lose. We ****ing suck. Playing him over anyone is not costing us the playoffs. It's figuring out if there's something there if he's given actual playing time.

    YOU ARE NOT MY PEERS

  5. #2375
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    You are bad at reading. But that's fine.

    Again, QUALIFIED HITTERS.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ate=&page=5_30

    Include hitters who don't qualify, and he's 125th. He's incredibly replaceable. He's not good. He has no future on this team in any meaningful or useful way. There is nothing interesting about him.
    No, I'm perfectly fine at reading it. Including hitters that don't qualify (who may or may not perform worse in a larger sample size) he's ~125/390. So he's basically in the upper 1/4 of offensive players in a big league roster for hitting, and we got him for free. Definitely worthless.


    "But if we hope for that we see not, then do we with patience wait for it."

    - Romans 8:25

  6. #2376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusader View Post
    Hahaha. I thought you had a doctorate in physics and mathematics? We literally picked someone up the scrapheap that's better than 1/3 of the teams 3Bs. Someone who ranks according to ESPN's site, 79th in total fwar (https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders...false/count/51). That's a clown statement.

    What would it take for someone to be interesting then when they are getting paid next to nothing? Top 10 in WAR? I mean, more than McKinstry?



    Yeah, I could see why they gave him more ABs. I wasn't opposed to them pulling the plug there as well.
    You're not even using WAR correctly, Crusader. You have your table sorted by "offensive" WAR, meaning it doesn't taking into account his defense. If you want to use ESPN's WAR (which, you shouldn't be using ESPN's WAR, it's easily the third best, behind a weak bWAR and the superior fWAR), then you need to sort using "seasonal". Wisdom has been the worst defensive 3b in baseball this year using OAA so by sorting "offensive" WAR you've taken out his worst 2022 quality.

    Use fWAR. Not only does it have better inputs (things like wRC+), his cumulative fWAR, using offense and defense is far more interesting as a value of what Wisdom brings to the table. He's the 21st most valuable 3b. That's not particularly good. He's 16th of 23rd in terms of qualified 3b. That's the bottom half. Players in this range, are your classic second division starters; guys who are just good enough to compile plate appearances into 2 wins to break the lowest threashold of being a "starting caliber player" but no where near good enough for good teams to ever consider a key part of the lineup. We all have different feelings on what is "interesting" and not, but I don't find this an interesting MLB player. He's got an interesting story, and I am happy for him. But he's best served as a guy who gets 300-350 PA's as a bench guy. Joey Wendle has the 21st most fWAR for SS's. I find him equally uninteresting.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 08-05-2022 at 10:15 PM.

  7. #2377
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    I think McKinstry or Bote, as well as Ortega, and Mills will keep their spots. I am not entirely convinced Heyward will be released, either. I expect the Cubs to keep about 6-7 players who are Rule V eligible. They'll probably sign a few players, too, so there's probably a few surprise keeps, like maybe Newcomb, or Brault, or something like that.
    I'm just firing down the list and just eliminating guys that don't seem to be valuable in any way. I'm sure it's not going to look anything like my list because things change

  8. #2378
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusader View Post
    No, I'm perfectly fine at reading it. Including hitters that don't qualify (who may or may not perform worse in a larger sample size) he's ~125/390. So he's basically in the upper 1/4 of offensive players in a big league roster for hitting, and we got him for free. Definitely worthless.
    First of all, holy **** that's not even close. Dude 125/390 is 33%, and being in the top 3rd in a counting stat isn't impressive. He simply gets more playing time than most guys who are as mediocre to bad as him. Because good teams don't start guys like him.

    Over a full season of 150 games an average player should put up about 2.5WAR. Wisdom is on pace for 2.1WAR.

    Thus: He is below average to average-ish. This isn't some insanely complicated things. I'm very confident I understand how to use WAR better than you. And it's fine that you don't. But if you want to go by WAR, WAR tells us that Wisdom is a below average to average-ish player. And on a ****** team, a guy who is 30+ and that's what he is, no, that is just not interesting.

    YOU ARE NOT MY PEERS

  9. #2379
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I'm just firing down the list and just eliminating guys that don't seem to be valuable in any way. I'm sure it's not going to look anything like my list because things change
    I think players like McKinstry or Bote bring value as multi-positional backups. Mills still offers a safe, albeit uninteresting, depth arm in AAA; someone who if you need a quick inning eater start, you can use. I think he'll keep a spot. At least at the start; he's someone you can boot when Wicks or someone is more ready mid-year and can join a rotation.

  10. #2380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    First of all, holy **** that's not even close. Dude 125/390 is 33%, and being in the top 3rd in a counting stat isn't impressive. He simply gets more playing time than most guys who are as mediocre to bad as him. Because good teams don't start guys like him.
    If it's qualified players then he's 79/390... If it's unqualified players then it's 125/390.

    So, with unqualified players included - most teams only have 4 players that put up the offensive production he does (yes, he gets a knock because he does it from a premium position where a lot of the better hitters in the league are 3B by trade), but he's doing it for cheap signed for a number of years.

    If his defense improves, or he shows he can play multiple positions (I'm not suggesting that's something anyone should expect), then at the very least, even if you're not going to call him good, or even average, he's interesting at least being a cheap bat under team control for years.

    If we really wanted to have a more interesting line-up, they'd be using Morel at 3B more - opening another spot in the outfield and letting Velasquez get more ABs from CF (yes, his defensive is crap in CF). Putting Madrigal full time in 2b, call up Mervins (yes, it would be an ungodly aggressive call-up) and give him a shot, or platoon Rivas and Wisdom at 1B, and have Wisdom be more a utility player.
    Last edited by Crusader; 08-05-2022 at 10:47 PM.


    "But if we hope for that we see not, then do we with patience wait for it."

    - Romans 8:25

  11. #2381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    McKinstry should be way more interesting to you than David Bote and Patrick Wisdom. McKinstry just turned 27 and has obliterated the minors at every stop. He's had a couple bad showings in the MLB, but it's amounted to 200PA, not 1200.

    There is nothing interesting about Patrick Wisdom. He is what he is. We know what he is. Playing him more this year is going to do nothing to help us in the future. At all. We have good data on the player that is Patrick Wisdom. He's a below average to average-ish player.

    We have erratic data on McKinstry. McKinstry is also younger. It is possible an adjustment has been worked on and he's a better player than he was. Why the hell would we not try to find out if he's something for the sake of playing a guy who is probably better but doesn't actually matter to the future of this team at all?
    Yup i agree. I'd play McKinstry just to see.

    Only think i'm interested to see with Wisdom is if his defense can somehow get closer to average. He's probably slightly below average, he's had a bad year defensively, but maybe he's not quite this bad based on last year.

  12. #2382
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    It's scary how little talent this team has on the MLB roster.

  13. #2383
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusader View Post
    If it's qualified players then he's 79/390... If it's unqualified players then it's 125/390.

    So, with unqualified players included - most teams only have 4 players that put up the offensive production he does (yes, he gets a knock because he does it from a premium position where a lot of the better hitters in the league are 3B by trade), but he's doing it for cheap signed for a number of years.

    If his defense improves, or he shows he can play multiple positions (I'm not suggesting that's something anyone should expect), then at the very least, even if you're not going to call him good, or even average, he's interesting at least being a cheap bat under team control for years.

    If we really wanted to have a more interesting line-up, they'd be using Morel at 3B more - opening another spot in the outfield and letting Velasquez get more ABs from CF (yes, his defensive is crap in CF). Putting Madrigal full time in 2b, call up Mervins (yes, it would be an ungodly aggressive call-up) and give him a shot, or platoon Rivas and Wisdom at 1B, and have Wisdom be more a utility player.
    He's not interesting. He's just a bench player. And he's a bench player going into his 30's. He's literally just a guy. He's a blip on the radar. Almost nobody's defense improves going into their 30's, that's basically completely unheard of. He's just a guy. But we also KNOW who he is now.

    Time to find out about McKinstry. I don't think you need to call up Mervins yet. Let him show out in AAA this year, we can try out Mervins next year. But all of those moves you named are fine. And better uses of time than playing Wisdom more. Not because he's literally not a baseball player, but because we know what he is. And should be putting our playing time into finding out about the more unknowns. Since this team sucks.

    YOU ARE NOT MY PEERS

  14. #2384
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    No. It's not. Is David Bote interesting to you?

    David Bote's first 711PA with the Cubs (3 years here): .324wOBA, positive defender, 11% walks, 27% K's.

    You're literally bragging about a leaderboard showing Patrick Wisdom producing TWO RUNS of value offensively. That's pathetic. He's also tied for 93rd on that leaderboard on "Wins Above Average Offensively" but you chose to cherry pick the spot he's best at, which is being a meh hitter.
    Wisdom has been about as good a hitter as Happ has this year, somehow, in terms of wRC+. He's been a better hitter than Suzuki and Nico. He's an alright player, he's not a bad player. He's super cheap so has some moderate value. His defense will probably settle as below average. He would save us about 6 million or whatever in FA to replace him, which I believe is what we paid for Villar.

    Cubs should look for an upgrade since 3B and 1B would be the obvious places to upgrade, and maybe DH. I'd probably keep him and use him off the bench.

  15. #2385
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    drunkharrycarey just compared Madrigal to Henry Rowengartner. That's funny to me.
    Screw sabermetics.

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