Off Season Thread aka The Party is over

[dayners81]

I actually think the mediator is a good thing. I think it will speed up the process. If these sides keep coming to the table once a week, we are looking at 130 games if we are very lucky.
I think a mediator can expedite all of this.

IMO, the owners need to budge. Go to 220 mil this year and make 230 the cap in 2026.
Make players arb eligible, 1 year earlier, provided FA stays at 6 years of service or age 28.5

I also fully agree that if a team stinks and tanks for multiple years, they lose draft status. They pick at the end of the rounds. I also think if a team tanks for 3 years, the owner must forfeit the team. There must be a salary floor as well as ceiling

I don't think a Federal Medator is a bad thing either, I'm just not sure it speeds up the process. I read somewhere that they didn't expect the Mediator to be available for 2-3 weeks. That means probably after the 20th this month, how many meetings is it going to take to come to an agreement money wise?

I believe the players dropped the shortened yrs of control, they just are asking for a bonus pool that if a rookie or 2nd yr player is very successful they get extra money from a bonus pool. The players asked for 100m, the owners offer 10? last it heard.

I think the biggest issue's still on the table are the LT threshold, which they have agreed to raise it but they haven't agreed about how much. I think the number i saw was 250m, which would be a big win for us. Revenue sharing is still a big issue, with the owners crying poor because of all the additional cost related to Covid. The tests and testing, the extra precautions taking during travel, the additional staff to help with this stuff, ect. The Rockies owner is the one leading all the fuss with that.
Then there is the international draft, but i'm not sure how much either side is pushing for that. A possible luxury tax floor and not having draft pick compensation for FA's

We'll see what happens but i'm not sold bringing in the mediator is going to speed stuff up. I hope it does speed things up, but i think were going to end up with a shortened season

[dayners81]

Absolutely not on Freeman and the money. Freeman is 33 years old this year. If the yankees give him that money, he may be good for one year and be terrible for the next 5 years. Many players's numbers tend to plummet in their early 30s, especially around 33/34 or so, although having it happen when they turn 30 isn't entirely uncommon either. The very most freeman is worth right now is a 2 year deal for 40 million.

I don't see Peraza winning the position out of spring training no matter what he does. They'll see how he does in AAA and bring him up in June to get an extra year of control out of him. I think they easily play Gio there till then.

I absolutely love Flos tools. I know i'm being irrational here, because the odds of a low .200s minor league hitter succeeding at the major league level is probably astronomical, but I want to see him get maybe play 100 games in just to see what he can finally do. In the brief time that he was up last season I didn't see the type of overmatched hitter you'd expect to see with his history.

While i agree 6yr180 is alot for Freeman i don;t see a steep decline for him after 1yr. I would bet on him play at a very high level for at least 3-4 more yrs. The last couple yrs could be tough but to get a player of his caliber, sometimes you have to give that extra yr or 2. Based on how they calulate value based on War, last i saw they value 1 win for 8-9M, so i think he'll easily be a 3.5-4 or more WAR for the majority of the contract. He hasn't had a yr below 3.5 WAR since 2015 when he only played 118 games, he had a 2.9 WAR season in 2020 but that was in 60 games. The other thing about him is he stays healthy, since 2011 he's only had to season where he played less than 145 games and never played less that 110 games in a full season. IMO, if there is an older FA that is worth the money it's him.

I defiately could see Gio play SS till Peraza is ready but i wouldn't rule out Peraza winning the job in ST. I think thats the direction they are leaning based on recent Cashman comments and things i;ve been told

If that Olsen/ Andrus deal is really on the table, thats a deal i make in a heartbeat. Olsen is the best player of the 3 options and Andrus gives us a legit SS as a stop gap

I completely agree about Flo, he has performed well at the MLB level, has all the tools you could dream for. He's getting to the age though where they need to find out what they really have in him

[Kinkotheclown]

I don't think a Federal Medator is a bad thing either, I'm just not sure it speeds up the process. I read somewhere that they didn't expect the Mediator to be available for 2-3 weeks. That means probably after the 20th this month, how many meetings is it going to take to come to an agreement money wise?

I believe the players dropped the shortened yrs of control, they just are asking for a bonus pool that if a rookie or 2nd yr player is very successful they get extra money from a bonus pool. The players asked for 100m, the owners offer 10? last it heard.

I think the biggest issue's still on the table are the LT threshold, which they have agreed to raise it but they haven't agreed about how much. I think the number i saw was 250m, which would be a big win for us. Revenue sharing is still a big issue, with the owners crying poor because of all the additional cost related to Covid. The tests and testing, the extra precautions taking during travel, the additional staff to help with this stuff, ect. The Rockies owner is the one leading all the fuss with that.
Then there is the international draft, but i'm not sure how much either side is pushing for that. A possible luxury tax floor and not having draft pick compensation for FA's

We'll see what happens but i'm not sold bringing in the mediator is going to speed stuff up. I hope it does speed things up, but i think were going to end up with a shortened season

I'm shocked there aren't owners who side with the players and want the LT thrown out.

[dayners81]

The MLBPA denied the owners request for a federal mediator after the owners promising a counter proposal today. So they owner said they would have a counter proposal on the table today, didnt even try to present 1 . Then the players refused mediation because they feel like their offer is fair

[OhSoSlick]

The MLBPA denied the owners request for a federal mediator after the owners promising a counter proposal today. So they owner said they would have a counter proposal on the table today, didnt even try to present 1 . Then the players refused mediation because they feel like their offer is fair

Ownership has made almost zero movement off their demands. They haven't seemed to be negotiating in good faith. I feel this federal mediator crap was just them saying hey look we tried but the players didn't wanna do it. Even though it didn't really help in 94-95 strike and the MLB has made almost no concessions off their demands.

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[dayners81]

Ownership has made almost zero movement off their demands. They haven't seemed to be negotiating in good faith. I feel this federal mediator crap was just them saying hey look we tried but the players didn't wanna do it. Even though it didn't really help in 94-95 strike and the MLB has made almost no concessions off their demands.

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I agree that the owner aren't negotiating in good faith. They promised to have an offer for the MLBPA today, and never even proposed ANYTHING. They certainly don't seem like they are in a hurry to get this over before ST.

Mush predicted it would be done just after the super bowl, so with his track record on predictions we could be looking at a 100 game season

[OhSoSlick]

MLB can't really think it's not obvious this was their plan all along.

1. Lock out players
2. Unwilling to actually negotiate
3. Ask for a mediator knowing the players would reject
4. Blame players when it's the owners who locked them out and haven't done any negotiating in food faith

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[Webslinger]

While i agree 6yr180 is alot for Freeman i don;t see a steep decline for him after 1yr. I would bet on him play at a very high level for at least 3-4 more yrs. The last couple yrs could be tough but to get a player of his caliber, sometimes you have to give that extra yr or 2. Based on how they calulate value based on War, last i saw they value 1 win for 8-9M, so i think he'll easily be a 3.5-4 or more WAR for the majority of the contract. He hasn't had a yr below 3.5 WAR since 2015 when he only played 118 games, he had a 2.9 WAR season in 2020 but that was in 60 games. The other thing about him is he stays healthy, since 2011 he's only had to season where he played less than 145 games and never played less that 110 games in a full season. IMO, if there is an older FA that is worth the money it's him.

I defiately could see Gio play SS till Peraza is ready but i wouldn't rule out Peraza winning the job in ST. I think thats the direction they are leaning based on recent Cashman comments and things i;ve been told

If that Olsen/ Andrus deal is really on the table, thats a deal i make in a heartbeat. Olsen is the best player of the 3 options and Andrus gives us a legit SS as a stop gap

I completely agree about Flo, he has performed well at the MLB level, has all the tools you could dream for. He's getting to the age though where they need to find out what they really have in him

If Freeman plays at a high level for the next 3-4 years that would make him a pretty big outlier. The vast majority of players have steep declines after age 33/34, and that's best case scenario. Look at Miguel Cabrera, Votto, Carlos Santana, Alex Rodriguez, etc. the list goes on. You never give a guy a huge contract hoping he'll be the next Boggs, Nelson Cruz or Paul Molitor. That would be a massive mistake. This is why they need to be very careful with Judge.

[johnnyi]

Ye O Little Faith.

[Kinkotheclown]

Ownership has made almost zero movement off their demands. They haven't seemed to be negotiating in good faith. I feel this federal mediator crap was just them saying hey look we tried but the players didn't wanna do it. Even though it didn't really help in 94-95 strike and the MLB has made almost no concessions off their demands.

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I totally agree. Owners are the driving factor in this. I think they effectively want to break the union.
At first, I thought it might be good faith and just trying to get things closer but after reading more about it, I think it is lip service.
I also think the players know what's about to happen. It's a bummer, especially for player development but I think we are in for a long wait.

[Kinkotheclown]

MLB can't really think it's not obvious this was their plan all along.

1. Lock out players
2. Unwilling to actually negotiate
3. Ask for a mediator knowing the players would reject
4. Blame players when it's the owners who locked them out and haven't done any negotiating in food faith

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Food faith is a big issue with all of this. The players need to accept that hot dogs will sold at games and the league will not switch to a vegan version of the hot dog. I can't blame the owners for that.


The more it unfolds, the clearer it is that the owners intention has never been one of good faith. If it had, they wouldn't have waited so long and given a proposal that was so far from what the players wanted.

Hey, are you sure you will get here by 8?
(Guy in his pajamas on the couch). Yeah. For sure. I'm leaving now. It takes an hour. I'll be there.

745-
Just checking you are on schedule
(Guy in pajamas on couch) Yep. Hit a little traffic. Might be a few behind but looking good

805
Are you close
(Guy in pajamas on couch). Yeah. About 10 away

830
Where are you
Guy in pajamas on couch). Actually I haven't left yet. I think I am good where I am. Sorry, not sorry.

[johnnyi]

So, let's recap. There was an agreement in place. Because the owners made more money, the players want more money. They are already getting more money on the high end as evidenced by the ridiculous 9 figure contracts being signed.

So, the issue comes down to the younger players. 1-3 year players are making close to the minimum salary of $575,000 per year. So, at a minimum, if you multiply that by 15 players per team times 30 teams, at a minimum that's. $258.75 Million. The owners are offering a $40 K increase or $18 million or a 7% increase and the players are requesting a $200 K increase or $90 million or a 35% increase.

Then, in addition to arbitration already in place, the players are requesting a bonus pool. MLB agrees and offers to fund $10 million or an additional 4% increase on the $258.75 million, but the players want $100 million or an additional 39% on the $258.75 million.

On top of that, some of the lower experienced players are starting to get 9 figure contracts and that trend will continue.

The owners have also added 15 DH positions, which probably equates to $225 million and are improving the minor league housing and living expenses to the tune of approx $5 million per team or $150 million.

Then there's the luxury tax threshold where baseball is proposing an increase from $208 to $214 Million this year a $6 million increase which will probably increase the payroll dollars spent by about 10 teams by that amount or $60 Million, but the union is requesting an increase to $246 million to start, which is an increase of $38 million to start, which might translate into $380 Million for those 10 teams trying to compete, whether above or below the threshold.

Now, I agree the players deserve more money on the lower experience end, but how much more. Plus, other than demanding more money, what are the players giving in the negotiations? They won't even agree to one more 3 game series in the playoffs.

The big bad owners that take all the risks are being asked to shell out an additional $90 million + $100 million + $225 Million + $150 Million + $380 Million =close to a $ billion and that doesn't even take into account the crazier claims about trying to tie their salaries to the increase in franchise values, which is anticapitalist and un-American. There's the main reason why the players would never agree to mediation. They would never get anywhere close to what they are asking.

That being said, I agree that both sides must negotiate in good faith, but I don't want to blame either, but to blame both the players for their ridiculous demands and the owners for their negotiating tactics.

[dayners81]

@JonHeyman
·
3h
The Yankees are expected to take a run at Freddie Freeman, who they love. Though 1B isn’t their real need, they’d love to fit one of the game’s best lefty hitters into their lineup. With the Braves not quickly wrapping up their star, all are options are on the table for Freeman.

[dayners81]

Food faith is a big issue with all of this. The players need to accept that hot dogs will sold at games and the league will not switch to a vegan version of the hot dog. I can't blame the owners for that.


The more it unfolds, the clearer it is that the owners intention has never been one of good faith. If it had, they wouldn't have waited so long and given a proposal that was so far from what the players wanted.

Hey, are you sure you will get here by 8?
(Guy in his pajamas on the couch). Yeah. For sure. I'm leaving now. It takes an hour. I'll be there.

745-
Just checking you are on schedule
(Guy in pajamas on couch) Yep. Hit a little traffic. Might be a few behind but looking good

805
Are you close
(Guy in pajamas on couch). Yeah. About 10 away

830
Where are you
Guy in pajamas on couch). Actually I haven't left yet. I think I am good where I am. Sorry, not sorry.

LOL, sounds just about right

[Kinkotheclown]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/latest-mlb...055808673.html

He sums it up;



Johnny, I agree that the players will have to bend. But they hav already. The owners created the lockout and then waited almost 2 months to bring anything to the table. That's a dick move if you are operating in good faith.

The extra series seems inevitable but the owners should then consider cutting the regular season back to 160 games.
The union wants 246 mil by 2026. Not next year. They want it at 225 I believe? and then to go up in 6 mil increments

This is why I have said. Owners, go to 220 this year and 232 by 2026. Offer that as a middle ground.
Either pay extra for the extra playoff games by increasing the playoff bonus or or cut the season back a couple games.

Allow impact player to get arb eligible after 3 years. They still need to wait 6 or till 28.5 to be an FA but if they are that good, put a little more in their pocket.

The players can be greedy twats, that's certain but I don't see that this time. I see owners trying to break them.