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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    I'm assuming you meant to quote someone else because none of this addressed any of the points I made.

    Bradshaw and Montana won 4 Superbowls in 13 years starting (31%). Brady has won 7 in 19. (37%). So Brady's pace of Superbowls is still better than theirs.


    I know you mentioned Brady playing with unprecedented defensive help. I asked you how often Rodgers, Manning, etc. played with comparable defensive help. Because Brady went to the Superbowl literally 100% of the time he had an elite defense. So I ask again: did they?


    Except I did give you concrete answers as to why Brady is better than Mahomes, or Rodgers, or Peyton, or Brees.

    What are you talking about Brady's stats are the only ones to get significantly worse in the postseason?

    Here are the dropoffs in each stat for Brady and Peyton in the playoffs:

    QB Rating:
    Brady -6.9
    Peyton -9.1

    TD%:
    Brady -0.8%
    Peyton -1.8%

    INT%:
    Brady -0.4%
    Peyton -0.3%

    Comp. %:
    Brady -1.3%
    Peyton -2.1%


    I keep giving you answers that are not abstract and mysterious and you keep ignoring them.


    Now, I'll be awaiting your statistics on how many times Mahoes, Rodgers, Manning, Marino, etc. have had elite defenses so we can see a direct comparison.
    I mentioned that Brady had unprecedented help on his way to winning seven Super Bowls in ten tries because no player in NFL history had the luxury of playing on a team ranked in the top ten defensively for "fifteen (mistakingly counted sixteen earlier - Cassell started in 2008) of the twenty seasons his career has lasted".

    According to PFF and PF-R expected points, Brady had a top 5 defense or what I claim "elite" level defense ten times (mistakingly counted nine, but 2007 was another Patriot elite defensive performance according to PFF, not PF-R).

    Years Brady benefitted from elite defensive play

    2001* (top ten regular season, remarkable playoffs shutting down Raiders/Rams offense and Steelers--number 1 rushing attack)
    2003
    2004
    2006
    2007
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2018
    2019
    2020

    In 2006, 2015, and 2019 Brady had elite defenses and did not reach the super bowl. In 2015 Brady led a final drive down the field to close within two points of the Broncos and a chance for the super bowl. Brady failed to convert the two point try, the Pats lost. Brady also failed to convert two final drives versus the Giants in the Super Bowls.

    I digress.

    Brady, in his career, went to only one super bowl without a very good defense, in 2017. He was in one of the weakest divisions in modern times in 2017 & 2018 according to PF-R SRS.

    Yes Peyton Manning was worse in the playoffs. If you go back a read my post#59 I was comparing Brady to the other players in group 2--which included Montana, Starr, and Bradshaw--who all performed better in the postseason as oppose to Brady who has performed worst in the PS by any metric.

    So in conclusion, Brady did not go to the Super Bowl every time he had an elite defense.

    I see no evidence whatsoever that Rodgers and Mahomes have had an elite defense. Rodgers has had a top ten defense only four times (2009, 2010*, 2012, 2020).

    Peyton Manning had a top 10 defense five times (2005, 2007, 2012, 2014, 2015), out of those years his defense was elite twice w the Broncos (2012, 2015).

    I swear to you no player at the QB position has been better situated than Tom Brady--that's the primary reason he's won more Super Bowls than anybody.

    You can have all the offensive play calling genius and skill position weapons you want, see Dan Fouts and the early 80s Chargers, mid 80s Dolphins, 00s Colts, and the Chiefs this decade--what really anchors a winning team is great defense. People love to shout out Warner/Bulger and the Rams offense, but go check the defensive metrics in the years they were winning.

  2. #62
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    Just good enough to keep his job.

    Lulz.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    I mentioned that Brady had unprecedented help on his way to winning seven Super Bowls in ten tries because no player in NFL history had the luxury of playing on a team ranked in the top ten defensively for "fifteen (mistakingly counted sixteen earlier - Cassell started in 2008) of the twenty seasons his career has lasted".

    According to PFF and PF-R expected points, Brady had a top 5 defense or what I claim "elite" level defense ten times (mistakingly counted nine, but 2007 was another Patriot elite defensive performance according to PFF, not PF-R).

    Years Brady benefitted from elite defensive play

    2001* (top ten regular season, remarkable playoffs shutting down Raiders/Rams offense and Steelers--number 1 rushing attack)
    2003
    2004
    2006
    2007
    2014
    2015
    2016
    2018
    2019
    2020

    In 2006, 2015, and 2019 Brady had elite defenses and did not reach the super bowl. In 2015 Brady led a final drive down the field to close within two points of the Broncos and a chance for the super bowl. Brady failed to convert the two point try, the Pats lost. Brady also failed to convert two final drives versus the Giants in the Super Bowls.

    I digress.

    Brady, in his career, went to only one super bowl without a very good defense, in 2017. He was in one of the weakest divisions in modern times in 2017 & 2018 according to PF-R SRS.

    Yes Peyton Manning was worse in the playoffs. If you go back a read my post#59 I was comparing Brady to the other players in group 2--which included Montana, Starr, and Bradshaw--who all performed better in the postseason as oppose to Brady who has performed worst in the PS by any metric.

    So in conclusion, Brady did not go to the Super Bowl every time he had an elite defense.

    I see no evidence whatsoever that Rodgers and Mahomes have had an elite defense. Rodgers has had a top ten defense only four times (2009, 2010*, 2012, 2020).

    Peyton Manning had a top 10 defense five times (2005, 2007, 2012, 2014, 2015), out of those years his defense was elite twice w the Broncos (2012, 2015).

    I swear to you no player at the QB position has been better situated than Tom Brady--that's the primary reason he's won more Super Bowls than anybody.

    You can have all the offensive play calling genius and skill position weapons you want, see Dan Fouts and the early 80s Chargers, mid 80s Dolphins, 00s Colts, and the Chiefs this decade--what really anchors a winning team is great defense. People love to shout out Warner/Bulger and the Rams offense, but go check the defensive metrics in the years they were winning.
    This sounds like your "stat shopping" and just finding any single stat to say his D was elite to conclude it was. That is a disingenuous and non-objective way of looking at it. I also question the stats you're using considering these were Brady's points against for his career:

    2001: 6th (11-5 won SB)
    2002: 17th (9-7 missed playoffs)
    2003: 1st (14-2 won SB)
    2004: 2nd (14-2 won SB)
    2005: 17th (10-6 loss playoffs)
    2006: 2nd (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2007: 4th (16-0 lost SB)
    2008: N/A
    2009: 5th (10-6 loss playoffs)
    2010: 8th (14-2 loss playoffs)
    2011: 15th (13-3 lost SB)
    2012: 9th (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2013: 10th (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2014: 8th (12-4 won SB)
    2015: 10th (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2016: 1st (14-2 won SB)
    2017: 5th (13-3 lost SB)
    2018: 7th (11-5 won SB)
    2019: 1st (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2020: 8th (11-5 won SB)

    You incorrectly identified 2001, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2020 as elite defenses. Is this because one of those two sources you used claimed they were? Because 2020 they were 8th, 2014 they were 8th, so it seems that your source seems to indicate they were better than their Pt/against 100% of the time, which seems a stretch.

    It seems he went to the SB 5/8 times with a Top 5 defense and went to the Superbowl 4/8 times he had a Top 10 defense. He amazingly also went to the Superbowl with the 15th ranked D in 2011.

    I wonder why you had 2010 starred for Rodgers? They were 2nd in points against that year. By what measure were they not elite? Because I'd argue they are.

    Which means Rodgers went to the SB the only time he had an elite defense but couldn't ever get there all the other times he had a Top 10 defense. Remember Brady was going to the Superbowl 50% of the time he had a top 10 but not top 5 D.

    Suffice to say I count several instances of Peyton's defenses being top 5 or 10:

    2015: 4th (won SB)
    2012: 4th (loss playoffs)
    2009: 8th (lost SB)
    2008: 7th (loss playoffs)
    2007: 1st (loss playoffs)
    2005: 2nd (loss playoffs)
    2002: 7th (loss playoffs)

    Manning also made the Superbowl with the 22nd ranked D in 2013 and the 23rd ranked D in 2006 (which is very impressive.

    What's again interesting is your methodology does not consider 2005 or 2007 elite defenses despite them being 1st and 2nd in the league in points against. But based on points against, he went to the Superbowl once with a top 5 defense out of 4 times.


    It seems like those QBs certainly had enough instances of good defenses to where they should have gone to more Superbowls if that is indeed the driver.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    This sounds like your "stat shopping" and just finding any single stat to say his D was elite to conclude it was. That is a disingenuous and non-objective way of looking at it. I also question the stats you're using considering these were Brady's points against for his career:

    2001: 6th (11-5 won SB)
    2002: 17th (9-7 missed playoffs)
    2003: 1st (14-2 won SB)
    2004: 2nd (14-2 won SB)
    2005: 17th (10-6 loss playoffs)
    2006: 2nd (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2007: 4th (16-0 lost SB)
    2008: N/A
    2009: 5th (10-6 loss playoffs)
    2010: 8th (14-2 loss playoffs)
    2011: 15th (13-3 lost SB)
    2012: 9th (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2013: 10th (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2014: 8th (12-4 won SB)
    2015: 10th (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2016: 1st (14-2 won SB)
    2017: 5th (13-3 lost SB)
    2018: 7th (11-5 won SB)
    2019: 1st (12-4 loss playoffs)
    2020: 8th (11-5 won SB)

    You incorrectly identified 2001, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2020 as elite defenses. Is this because one of those two sources you used claimed they were? Because 2020 they were 8th, 2014 they were 8th, so it seems that your source seems to indicate they were better than their Pt/against 100% of the time, which seems a stretch.

    It seems he went to the SB 5/8 times with a Top 5 defense and went to the Superbowl 4/8 times he had a Top 10 defense. He amazingly also went to the Superbowl with the 15th ranked D in 2011.

    I wonder why you had 2010 starred for Rodgers? They were 2nd in points against that year. By what measure were they not elite? Because I'd argue they are.

    Which means Rodgers went to the SB the only time he had an elite defense but couldn't ever get there all the other times he had a Top 10 defense. Remember Brady was going to the Superbowl 50% of the time he had a top 10 but not top 5 D.

    Suffice to say I count several instances of Peyton's defenses being top 5 or 10:

    2015: 4th (won SB)
    2012: 4th (loss playoffs)
    2009: 8th (lost SB)
    2008: 7th (loss playoffs)
    2007: 1st (loss playoffs)
    2005: 2nd (loss playoffs)
    2002: 7th (loss playoffs)

    Manning also made the Superbowl with the 22nd ranked D in 2013 and the 23rd ranked D in 2006 (which is very impressive.

    What's again interesting is your methodology does not consider 2005 or 2007 elite defenses despite them being 1st and 2nd in the league in points against. But based on points against, he went to the Superbowl once with a top 5 defense out of 4 times.


    It seems like those QBs certainly had enough instances of good defenses to where they should have gone to more Superbowls if that is indeed the driver.
    I prefer PFF premium stat team defensive ratings over points against. For example if a QB throws a pick 6 or special teams gives up a punt return TD, that's not the defenses fault. PFF is my preferred source for defensive ratings and offensive line ratings.

    I use the Reg/Post season ratings from 2006 - 2020:

    2020: 5th (won SB)
    2019: 3rd (playoff loss)
    2018: 2nd (won SB)
    2017: 24th (SB loss)
    2016: 1st (won SB)
    2015: 2nd (playoff loss)
    2014: 3rd (won SB)
    2013: 16th (playoff loss)
    2012: 6th (playoff loss)
    2011: 9th (SB loss)
    2010: 15th (playoff loss)
    2009: 11th (playoff loss)
    2007: 3rd (SB loss)
    2006: 2nd (playoff loss)

    For pre-2006 I used Pro-Football Ref "Expected Points" contributed. I'll also post the Football Outsiders ranking.

    2005: PF-R=23rd, F/O=28th (playoff loss)
    2004: PF-R=3rd, F/O=6th (won SB)
    2003: PF-R=2nd, F/O=2nd (won SB)
    2002: PF-R=23rd, F/O=15th (missed playoffs)
    2001: PF-R=9th, F/O=13th (won SB)

    2003, 2004 were clearly elite Patriots defenses that helped carry Brady to back to back Super Bowls by most metrics.

    The reason I claimed 2001 as an elite defense is because I figured the job Ty Law and Pats defense did in the playoffs especially against the Rams would've garnered more expected points. The stats however don't back that up, with the playoff adjustment the Patriots ended as the 7th ranked defense.

    PFF is more in depth, each player on each play is analyzed as opposed to capturing just the general play like F/O, so in the case of 2020, 2018, 2014-15, I use the best tools available.

    PF-R ranks the 2020 Buccaneers 6th, F/O ranks them 5th. The fact that PFF ranks them 5th isn't out of the ordinary.
    *PF-R w/ playoff adjustment

    2018: PF-R=8th, F/O DVOA=19th, PFF=2nd
    2015: PF-R=9th, F/O DVOA=11th, PFF=2nd
    2014: PF-R=20th, F/O DVOA=12th, PFF=3rd

    The 2018 and 2014 plots seem inconsistent even if we throw in PA, but 2015 Patriots defense seem to side with the PA that you posted ranking the Patriots around 10th in the NFL defensively.

    According to PFF the Pats were top 10 in pass rush and 2nd ranked in coverage. My explanation for the difference in the metrics for 2015, is PF-R & F/O are more general than dynamic, the Patriots were up 20+ points going into the 4th quarter for three or four games. My assumption is that teams were able to pad stats with the Patriots playing a more prevent style defense. The splits seem to confirm this as the Patriots defense gave up double the pass production in the 2nd Half. However, the PFF recorders would recognize this and not penalize the secondary like a more standardize metric would.

    Some of your Peyton Manning Colts team defensive ratings are highly questionable as well, like for instance the 2002 Colts having a top 10 defense? PF-R and F/O have them ranked 17th and 19th respectively. Dwight Freeney was the only good player on that defense and he only started half the season--not one single pro bowler.

    And you should know that something wrong with your method of evaluating defenses when the rankings you use have the 2015 Broncos "outside" the top 3. That was one of the top 10 defenses All-time. PF-R ranks them number 1 by a wide margin against there other 2015 defenses, F/O ranks them number 1 by a wide margin, and so does PFF, and every other source I can find. Peyton Manning was the worst QB in the league that year, and that team one a super bowl in spite of him.
    Last edited by Lionel20; 09-18-2021 at 01:03 AM.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    I prefer PFF premium stat team defensive ratings over points against. For example if a QB throws a pick 6 or special teams gives up a punt return TD, that's not the defenses fault. PFF is my preferred source for defensive ratings and offensive line ratings.

    I use the Reg/Post season ratings from 2006 - 2020:

    2020: 5th (won SB)
    2019: 3rd (playoff loss)
    2018: 2nd (won SB)
    2017: 24th (SB loss)
    2016: 1st (won SB)
    2015: 2nd (playoff loss)
    2014: 3rd (won SB)
    2013: 16th (playoff loss)
    2012: 6th (playoff loss)
    2011: 9th (SB loss)
    2010: 15th (playoff loss)
    2009: 11th (playoff loss)
    2007: 3rd (SB loss)
    2006: 2nd (playoff loss)

    For pre-2006 I used Pro-Football Ref "Expected Points" contributed. I'll also post the Football Outsiders ranking.

    2005: PF-R=23rd, F/O=28th (playoff loss)
    2004: PF-R=3rd, F/O=6th (won SB)
    2003: PF-R=2nd, F/O=2nd (won SB)
    2002: PF-R=23rd, F/O=15th (missed playoffs)
    2001: PF-R=9th, F/O=13th (won SB)

    2003, 2004 were clearly elite Patriots defenses that helped carry Brady to back to back Super Bowls by most metrics.

    The reason I claimed 2001 as an elite defense is because I figured the job Ty Law and Pats defense did in the playoffs especially against the Rams would've garnered more expected points. The stats however don't back that up, with the playoff adjustment the Patriots ended as the 7th ranked defense.

    PFF is more in depth, each player on each play is analyzed as opposed to capturing just the general play like F/O, so in the case of 2020, 2018, 2014-15, I use the best tools available.

    PF-R ranks the 2020 Buccaneers 6th, F/O ranks them 5th. The fact that PFF ranks them 5th isn't out of the ordinary.
    *PF-R w/ playoff adjustment

    2018: PF-R=8th, F/O DVOA=19th, PFF=2nd
    2015: PF-R=9th, F/O DVOA=11th, PFF=2nd
    2014: PF-R=20th, F/O DVOA=12th, PFF=3rd

    The 2018 and 2014 plots seem inconsistent even if we throw in PA, but 2015 Patriots defense seem to side with the PA that you posted ranking the Patriots around 10th in the NFL defensively.

    According to PFF the Pats were top 10 in pass rush and 2nd ranked in coverage. My explanation for the difference in the metrics for 2015, is PF-R & F/O are more general than dynamic, the Patriots were up 20+ points going into the 4th quarter for three or four games. My assumption is that teams were able to pad stats with the Patriots playing a more prevent style defense. The splits seem to confirm this as the Patriots defense gave up double the pass production in the 2nd Half. However, the PFF recorders would recognize this and not penalize the secondary like a more standardize metric would.

    Some of your Peyton Manning Colts team defensive ratings are highly questionable as well, like for instance the 2002 Colts having a top 10 defense? PF-R and F/O have them ranked 17th and 19th respectively. Dwight Freeney was the only good player on that defense and he only started half the season--not one single pro bowler.

    And you should know that something wrong with your method of evaluating defenses when the rankings you use have the 2015 Broncos "outside" the top 3. That was one of the top 10 defenses All-time. PF-R ranks them number 1 by a wide margin against there other 2015 defenses, F/O ranks them number 1 by a wide margin, and so does PFF, and every other source I can find. Peyton Manning was the worst QB in the league that year, and that team one a super bowl in spite of him.
    Doesn’t seem that way, seems like you look at all the stats and just use whichever one has the Pats higher. Not to mention you just arbitrarily claimed their 01 defense was elite despite none of your stats saying so.

    You also don’t seem to have taken into account a QB or offense’s impact and effect on a defense (though to be fair, I’m not sure there’s many stats that can cover that).

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    Doesn’t seem that way, seems like you look at all the stats and just use whichever one has the Pats higher. Not to mention you just arbitrarily claimed their 01 defense was elite despite none of your stats saying so.

    You also don’t seem to have taken into account a QB or offense’s impact and effect on a defense (though to be fair, I’m not sure there’s many stats that can cover that).
    Valade: "You didn't utilize stats that can't be utilized in your equation. You're wrong."

    Sounds about valade.
    GJO- You will never be forgotten. "MORE THAN MINFINITY"!

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbroncsinmo View Post
    Valade: "You didn't utilize stats that can't be utilized in your equation. You're wrong."

    Sounds about valade.
    I never said he was wrong because he didn’t take that into account. DBroncismo: Doesn’t understand what he read so he just attacks another poster?

    Sounds about DBroncismo.

    Guess you’re gunning for another ban huh?

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    I never said he was wrong because he didn’t take that into account. DBroncismo: Doesn’t understand what he read so he just attacks another poster?

    Sounds about DBroncismo.

    Guess you’re gunning for another ban huh?

  9. #69
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    Imagine thinking “Brady is just lucky for 20 years straight” is more plausible than “Brady is really ****ing good”

  10. #70
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    5 TDs today.

    Beginners luck.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    5 TDs today.

    Beginners luck.
    It was the classic trap game. The Falcons didn't even gameplan for Brady because they were so focused on preparing for playing against Derek Carr in 2024.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Imagine thinking “Brady is just lucky for 20 years straight” is more plausible than “Brady is really ****ing good”
    To discredit Tom Brady at this point and not recognize that he’s the goat is just stupid. I hated Brady for years but I recognize greatness when I see it.

  13. #73
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    The good news is that it’s not to late for this sucker. He still has 5 more years to put it together.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by mariner4life View Post
    The good news is that it’s not to late for this sucker. He still has 5 more years to put it together.
    Lucky for him.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by mariner4life View Post
    The good news is that it’s not to late for this sucker. He still has 5 more years to put it together.
    Romo during the game today said "That kid might have future in this league if he can keep it up." Lol

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