Is Tom Brady overrated?

[Lionel20]

"All he does is win" can not be enough to obtain GOAT status in a sport where 25-30 different players can influence the outcome of any given game.

DiMaggio won nine World Series titles in baseball, few people claim DiMaggio as the GOAT.

Bill Russell won eleven NBA titles in basketball, few people claim Russell the GOAT.

In baseball, and certainly basketball, one player can have far greater impact on game outcomes than any football. Ohtani and Antetokounmpo are worth at least twice the share of team value as elite level QB's.

Jordan is widely considered the GOAT in basketball. Jordan won six championships

I'd argue Bonds is the GOAT in baseball. He never won a World Series. Even if you want to consider Babe Ruth, DiMaggio more than doubles Ruth in World Series wins.

Jordan and Ruth did things on the court and field that no one in the world had ever saw before. Bonds and Mays were terrific athletes that excelled at every aspect of their craft.

Anybody ever watch a Tom Brady "highlight reel"? See anything in his skill set that you've never seen before? If so, do share.

Brady is not fast or strong. He never had the strongest or most accurate arm.

Since there's nothing breathtaking and obvious--pundits desperate to justify the achievements of Tom Brady tend to overdose on the more abstract adjectives.

But there doesn't appear to be any direct evidence that Brady is the smartest QB--Peyton Manning was his own offensive coordinator--Brady doesn't have the highest wonderlic scores.

Brady is clutch, they say. Well, he certainly wasn't in the two Super Bowls against the Giants. In fact, in forty-five playoff games, Brady was mediocre in twenty-two--half of his postseason career according the passer rating.

Sure, David Tyree's catch was a lucky break working against Brady--Brady did have a chance to answer in the clutch following the Giants score. He and the Patriots offense failed to do so even with the greatest offense of all-time.

Brady apologist would even admit that yes, luck has worked more in Brady's favor--Dee Ford jumping offside in the 2019 playoffs, the Seahawks failing to run Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl 49, the "tuck rule" in the 2002 playoffs versus Oakland.

There's "Spygate" a scandal that Goodell and league allegedly covered up by destroying the on-site evidence. The Spygate scandal has somehow been reduced to just a technicality regarding taping signals. The 2008 financial crisis prevented a Senate investigation into the Patriots scandal and the leagues suspicious handling of it. Spygate allegedly extends from the start of Brady's career up until the Jets tipped off the league to one aspect of it in September of 2007.

Brady, of course, was later suspended for cheating in 2015. In 2003 Barry Bonds was accused of cheating in the Balco scandal. Bonds is being kept out of the hall of fame due to the allegations and was blacklisted by MLB. Brady's scandals are largely ignored in the current mainstream.

Brady in twenty-one seasons has three all-pro 1st team selections. Jordan, the NBA GOAT, was all-NBA eleven times. Jordan also performed at an elite level in 98% of his 179 playoff games.

It's clear, Brady is no Jordan--there is no Jordan or clear-cut GOAT in the NFL.

Lawrence Taylor has eight all-pro 1st team awards. Jerry Rice has ten all-pro's. Jim Brown was a unanimous all-pro eight times.

When I examine the gap between the next greatest OLB and Taylor, next greatest WR and Rice, RB/FB and Brown and then I compare Brady to other all-time great QB's, I don't see as wide of a gap to conclude Brady as the definitive GOAT. When I hear analysts, one after another anoint Brady as such, he's overrated indeed.

[Mamba42]

Welcome back Lionel.

[NBA all the way]

Basically what I took away from all that, is Brady is the GOAT lol

[koldjerky]

No

[BDawk4Prez]

Again?

[Mamba42]

In all seriousness, he solidified his position at least as the best QB of all time after winning the SB last year with the Bucs. He left the BB shadow and came out on top while the Pats missed the playoffs (not saying BB isn't great too).

I don't think there is a legit debate on whether Brady is the best American football player of all time. It is too hard to gauge since it's much more of a team sport than others where individuals can dominate more. It's probably best to have a best position player of all time and best QB and best defensive player in football (like in baseball where you wouldn't compare best pitchers and best hitters). NBA you can have a GOAT convo easier because individuals have a greater impact when there are only 4 others on the court.

So Brady is the GOAT QB, Jerry Rice is the GOAT position player (this one is more debatable) and I can't really say for GOAT defensive player. Maybe Sean Lee. Idk.

[koldjerky]

Basically what I took away from all that, is Brady is the GOAT lol

Good on you for reading it

[QQQ]

Isn’t this the guy that likes QBs with more melanin and hates QBs with less?

[QQQ]

In all seriousness, he solidified his position at least as the best QB of all time after winning the SB last year with the Bucs. He left the BB shadow and came out on top while the Pats missed the playoffs (not saying BB isn't great too).

I don't think there is a legit debate on whether Brady is the best American football player of all time. It is too hard to gauge since it's much more of a team sport than others where individuals can dominate more. It's probably best to have a best position player of all time and best QB and best defensive player in football (like in baseball where you wouldn't compare best pitchers and best hitters). NBA you can have a GOAT convo easier because individuals have a greater impact when there are only 4 others on the court.

So Brady is the GOAT QB, Jerry Rice is the GOAT position player (this one is more debatable) and I can't really say for GOAT defensive player. Maybe Sean Lee. Idk.

I agree, I think the Tampa super bowl sealed it

[BDawk4Prez]

Isn’t this the guy that likes QBs with more melanin and hates QBs with less?

Yes

[Lionel20]

In all seriousness, he solidified his position at least as the best QB of all time after winning the SB last year with the Bucs. He left the BB shadow and came out on top while the Pats missed the playoffs (not saying BB isn't great too).

I don't think there is a legit debate on whether Brady is the best American football player of all time. It is too hard to gauge since it's much more of a team sport than others where individuals can dominate more. It's probably best to have a best position player of all time and best QB and best defensive player in football (like in baseball where you wouldn't compare best pitchers and best hitters). NBA you can have a GOAT convo easier because individuals have a greater impact when there are only 4 others on the court.

So Brady is the GOAT QB, Jerry Rice is the GOAT position player (this one is more debatable) and I can't really say for GOAT defensive player. Maybe Sean Lee. Idk.

Brady has a solid claim for GOAT QB. But when you adjust for the fact that beginning in 1994 the NFL has gone out of its way to make the league more pass friendly -- if Brady is the greatest QB it's not by much over Tarkenton, Marino, Unitas, Rodgers, Montana, Manning, etc. Mahomes is on pace to shatter everyone. Even in terms of value if I told you Brady during his regular and postseason career accumulated the value of about "six" more wins than the next greatest QB, but Jerry Rice adds "seven" more wins over the next highest WR, which player would you say is the greatest?

In other words, for Brady to be the GOAT NFL player he's got to separate from the pack much more.

I've heard Skip Bayless and others argue that because Brady is a QB, he more valuable than Rice, but Bayless doesn't understand second-level stats. My calculations show that Brady coming into this season has 49 wins above average (WAA) in his career, compared to Jerry Rice's 13 WAA. Once all season-by-season adjustments are made in my metric, both Peyton Manning and Fran Tarkenton accumulated 40+ WAA, Manning with 43 WAA. The second highest WAA among WR's all-time is 6 WAA--amassed by Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. So compared to the next best alternative Rice is 1 win clear of Brady despite playing less games in a more physical position and in a more physical era.

Jim Brown finished his career with 18.3 WAA, second all-time to Walter Payton at 19.2 WAA among RBs. Amazingly, Brown did this in only nine seasons, averaging 2 WAA per season. Barry Sanders, the RB with the second highest WAA/season among qualifiers, had 2 WAA in only two seasons (1994, 1997).

Brown was the most efficient running back in NFL history by a mile. He gained 2 WAA six times in nine seasons, the next highest career total was three (Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk).

I haven't had the time to develop a model to measure defensive win contribution, but Lawrence Taylor claimed eight All-Pro's -- please find the next closet OLB to claim that?

Brady in his long career was awarded only three All Pro's.

Although Brady is credited with being a postseason god. Brady's stats got considerably worse in the playoffs. I'd even classify half of his performances as mediocre compared to the league averages for that season. In the case of Montana and Favre--they in Jordan-like fashion--got better in the postseason. Montana in particular comes closest to the Jordan standard in the playoffs. Jordan was 6-0, with six finals MVPs. Montana 4-0, three Super Bowl MVPs. Brady of course, 7-3, five Super Bowl MVPs.

Brady is in no way Jordan-isque
Brady, much like LeBron James in the NBA, achieved a wealth of playoff appearances by being in weak divisions (In LeBron's case conferences). It doesn't seem like Brady has a good argument as to being a better playoff player than Montana. Montana was a dominant playoff performer (1981, 1984) before Jerry Rice was drafted. The physical play of the 80s NFL, shortened Montana's career.

So, yes, when people throw Brady's name in there with Jordan--who is the GOAT of all GOATs, and overlook the dominance of Jim Brown, Jerry Rice, and Lawrence Taylor--they overrate Tom Brady "mightily".

[BDawk4Prez]

I quit reading when you said but.

[koldjerky]

I quit reading when you said but.

Lol.

[QQQ]

I don’t like bringing QB record into the equation for QBs because I think record is a team stat but when you’ve done it for 22 years and have played with over 200 different teammates, this is pretty impressive… Then you have guys like Eli Manning who had to win his last career start against a bad team just to get his career win percentage up to .500

[Lionel20]

I don’t like bringing QB record into the equation for QBs because I think record is a team stat but when you’ve done it for 22 years and have played with over 200 different teammates, this is pretty impressive… Then you have guys like Eli Manning who had to win his last career start against a bad team just to get his career win percentage up to .500

That same Eli, outplayed Brady twice in Super Bowls.