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  1. #61
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    Oct 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyndave View Post
    Two weeks ago I was sure Baez would not be on the team next year. Not so sure now even though he once said he would like to go back to the Cubs next year. Right now he is our most dynamic player . If somehow we could control his strike zone he could be a perrenial all star.
    I want him back. Such a waste if we let him walk, guy is young and one of the best players on the team and we traded for him.

  2. #62
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    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    It's not hard to be better than the Phillies and the Nationals at this point. Yes I said Phillies because I do think the Mets will be better than they will be next year.

    Then again if this team keeps this cluster**** of a FO together, who knows? I don't understand the need to keep Alderson around if you're going to hire a president of baseball operations anyway. And is that person going to hire their own GM or keep Scott? Its just better to clean house and start with a new regime at that point. You don't need that many cooks in the kitchen.
    Phillies are better than this team. Marlins could very well be a first or second place club next year lol. The Braves are garbage, too.


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  3. #63
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    Oct 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zmaster52 View Post
    Phillies are better than this team. Marlins could very well be a first or second place club next year lol. The Braves are garbage, too.


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    Right now they are but not by much. A couple of games is a coin flip. No way the Marlins are close to 1st or 2nd place next year. Their lineup is dog ****.

    The Braves aren't garbage. They're not great but I expect them to be better next year. Their offense is very good. Its a matter of upgrading their pitching staff which I am sure they will in the offseason.

  4. #64
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    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Right now they are but not by much. A couple of games is a coin flip. No way the Marlins are close to 1st or 2nd place next year. Their lineup is dog ****.

    The Braves aren't garbage. They're not great but I expect them to be better next year. Their offense is very good. Its a matter of upgrading their pitching staff which I am sure they will in the offseason.
    Yeah the Marlins lineup sucks but it’s nothing that a few free agents can’t fix. I expect the Tigers/Marlins to end up with Correa, tbh. If they get a big bat and round out their team with mid tier bats like Canha, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with.

    Phillies are better but not by much. Still, guys like Harper and Realmuto are better players than anybody the Mets have not named DeGrom. They’re also just some bullpen pieces away from being elite IMO. Nola is still a top 15 arm they can build around.

    The Braves will have Acuña coming back but I think Snitker is an awful manager and that they won’t be anything more than a first round elimination until they abandon the old school approach…they’re similar to the Cardinals in a few aspects.

    All three teams can very easily be better than the Mets next year and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were.


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  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zmaster52 View Post
    Yeah the Marlins lineup sucks but it’s nothing that a few free agents can’t fix. I expect the Tigers/Marlins to end up with Correa, tbh. If they get a big bat and round out their team with mid tier bats like Canha, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with.

    Phillies are better but not by much. Still, guys like Harper and Realmuto are better players than anybody the Mets have not named DeGrom. They’re also just some bullpen pieces away from being elite IMO. Nola is still a top 15 arm they can build around.

    The Braves will have Acuña coming back but I think Snitker is an awful manager and that they won’t be anything more than a first round elimination until they abandon the old school approach…they’re similar to the Cardinals in a few aspects.

    All three teams can very easily be better than the Mets next year and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were.


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    The Marlins need a lot more help than just Correa. They don't have a single quality major league hitter in their lineup. Chisholm has promise but that's it. De La Cruz only started hitting this year. I don't see that trend continuing.

    Realmuto isn't even that good this year. Harper has been amazing but the Phillies have the same problem every year. Their bullpen can't close games and their SP is mediocre.

    The Braves are still the best team in this division. Their offense is legit. They are still the team that scares me the most because they can outslug you. Yeah, they'll get bounced in the playoffs this year but people forget they were 1 game away from a WS appearance last year and had the Dodgers on the ropes down 3-1 in the series. A lot of those same guys will be there in 2022 as well.
    Last edited by metswon69; 09-17-2021 at 04:05 PM.

  6. #66
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  7. #67
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    Hard pass on stroman for that price

    I would keep Baez he’s a star.

    Davis
    Conforto
    Mcneil
    Smith

    Those are the main four guys who have been here a while that have a good shot of being elsewhere. I don’t think they will move in from all of them but if a core shakeup is in order those are the guys to look at.


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  8. #68
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    Apr 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyndave View Post
    There was a blog that listed the following who would not be here next year:

    Javier Baez
    Mike Conforto
    Dominick Smith
    Marcus Stroman
    Kevin Pillar
    Taijan Walker - This one surprised me . They said because of his antics when being taken out
    recently. I do not agree with this .
    Luis Rojas
    Sandy Alderson
    Zack Scott - Probably because a new Head might want his own GM and he was involved in the
    Baez trade.
    Was it a blog that would lead anyine to think they knew anything?

  9. #69
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    Most here will disagree I know but I think this is still a relatively young and talented team overall that’s been let down by an over reliance on analytics and a philosophy of hitting that’s one size fits all and fails to properly evaluate and work with each hitter’s inherent strengths and weaknesses. The proof to me is the regression we’re seeing and the failure of those responsible for formulating that approach to make adjustments as the season went on and it was clear it wasn’t going to work. Therefore, I would counsel caution in making wholesale changes in personnel (except of course where there are obvious weaknesses like 3B, LF and an overly left hand hitting team and dearth of left handed pitching) UNLESS the hitting philosophy isn’t going to change. Then it’s just as obvious you need almost a whole new group that fits that profile. In the latter case, if you’re a fan, be prepared to see former Mets blossom everywhere with their new teams.

  10. #70
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    The other consideration is the bench players. Ideally, these players wouldn’t play as much or as regularly as this group has had to. But remember that it was the bench mob whi had this team up 10 games over .500 60 games into the season. I’d want the top 4 back — Pillar and Villar above all, we can argue about the next two. It was the best bench the Mets have had in years, maybe a decade or more.

  11. #71
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    Oct 2019
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    152
    Not likely the Mets get a draft pick. IIRC, a team would have to sign Conforto for 5 years and $50M in order for the Mets to get a pick, assuming they QO Conforto. Based on what he did this year, who is going to sign Conforto for that length of time and amount.

    I'm not sure about this, but I think the Met can simply offer Conforto a regular contract, that is, no QO. So that would be a one year deal, probably in the neighborhood of what he is getting paid today ($12M). Nobody is going to offer Conforto more than that for a 1 year deal. Then again, I wonder, can Conforto not declare FA this year and declare FA after next season?

  12. #72
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    Oct 2019
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    152
    Check my numbers, but.....

    Roughly speaking, the Mets have about $75M coming off the books for luxury tax purposes this year. That includes players like Syndergaard and Conforto, and also the pro rata salaries of players picked up during the season, like Baez, Hand, Hill, etc.

    The $75M will, in part be used to pay salary increases to a number of players who are making less than $1M. Also, Pillar has a player option of $2.9M. And, not to mention Cano's $20,250,000 (net).

    So now you have about $52M left for raises and for new signings.

    If you sign Stroman and Baez, that knocks off at least $50M per year. Plus, you may also have to sign Conforto and Syndergaard, albeit I do not think it is prudent to offer them a QO. But even they signed for what they were making this year, that's another roughly $20M in total (if you were to offer both QO, that would be roughly $39M+ instead).

    So, you already used up more than what is coming off the books this year by about $18M, not even considering raises to some players who are making less than $1M a year.

    That would then exceed the Mets payroll of roughly $197M payroll, putting the team at about $217M+, which would have this year exceeded the luxury tax threshold.

    Of course, if Cano again violated MLB drug policy, that would help the Mets. More likely, the Mets will have to work out some kind of a deal ala Bonilla. Maybe Cohen could give Cano a job at his hedge fund.

    Naturally, it is not the end of the world if the Mets go over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in years. But before even talking about any additions beyond the Stroman, Baez, Conforto, Thor players, the Mets would already before over the threshold.

    On the other hand, not signing either Stroman could save another $25M each. Then again, I'm assuming each will sign for an average of $25M per year, and it might in fact be more than that.

    It is not that Cohen does not have the money, but it is that the Mets would be in jeopardy of doing a Yankees by starting to exceed the luxury tax for some years to come.

    Having said all of that:
    I would prefer not to sign guys like Pillar and Villar.
    I would bring back Rich Hill at $2M or $2.5M (what he was paid this year)
    Bring back Brad Hand for a huge reduction from his $10.5M salary, maybe $5M if possible.
    Definitely not bring back Familia.
    Would look to see if I could sign or trade for relievers who can work more than one inning per outing.
    Keep McNeil and Dom, since both have almost no trade value to speak of.
    Maybe resign almonte.
    If the money is right, sign both Stroman and Baez (the Mets already made an investment when they traded crow).
    Bring back Syndergaard and Conforto at their current salaries (do not offer either a QO). If they leave, so be it.

  13. #73
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    Cohen will have blow pass the luxury tax so the Mets can improve that’s something that has to happen.


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  14. #74
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    I’m in the minority here but I want to keep Cano. He’s a better hitter than everyone not named Alonso and Nimmo and lord knows that his bat would be sorely needed.

    Not to mention that since we fired Chilli to make Lindor happy, I think having a hitting coach like Cano would really help. The players even referred to him as being a defacto hitting coach.

    Team wRC+

    2018 - 94
    2019 (when we got Cano) - 104
    2020 - 121
    2021 - 96

    Is it a coincidence that this team was better than league average when Cano was here? I don’t think so. Mets need him back.

    The trade wasn’t all that bad, especially considering Kelenic has been dog shit…he has a -1 fWAR LMAO. And some people want to act like Gimenez and his 0.1 fWAR is an abomination.

    Dunn + Kelenic have combined produced -0.9 fWAR, Swarzak gave them -0.6, Bautista gave them -0.5, and Bruce gave them 0.5.

    So all in all, the players the Mets traded have produced -1.5 fWAR for the Mariners, whereas Cano and Diaz combined have given the Mets 4.8 fWAR.

    So the Mets are winning that trade by 6.3 fWAR…and before somebody comes at me and says the Mets traded Kelenic when his value was low, they did the same with PCA…except 100x worse.

    Then we account for the fact that Bruce and Swarzak made Cano’s deal neutral in the first year…with Bruce being paid 13MM and Swarzak 7MM. Mariners send 4MM every year to compensate Cano’s 24MM salary. Second year, Mets only paid Cano 11MM (subtracting Bruce’s salary) Third year, Mets pay Cano the full amount. Fourth year, Cano gets suspended and the Mets don’t have to pay him anything….but the Mariners still sent over 4MM. Now for the last two years, the Mets pay Cano 24MM a year - then subtract 4MM from what the Mariners sent.

    So let’s do the math on what the Mets pay Cano

    Year 1: 0
    Year 2: 11MM
    Year 3: -4MM
    Year 4: 20MM
    Year 5: 20MM

    If my math is correct, the Mets pay Cano 47MM over the five years that he was here - or four, if you discount his suspension.

    So Mets take up 47MM in contracts (plus Diaz) in exchange for getting rid of -1.5 fWAR in garbage. Brodie’s not that bad after all, huh?

    But please tell me how Sandy and his net neutral Lindor trade got such a steal. Carrasco and Lindor have been worth 2.7 fWAR whereas Rosario and Gimenez have been combined something similar. That doesn’t even account for Greene and Wolf.


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  15. #75
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    Dec 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zmaster52 View Post
    I’m in the minority here but I want to keep Cano. He’s a better hitter than everyone not named Alonso and Nimmo and lord knows that his bat would be sorely needed.

    Not to mention that since we fired Chilli to make Lindor happy, I think having a hitting coach like Cano would really help. The players even referred to him as being a defacto hitting coach.

    Team wRC+

    2018 - 94
    2019 (when we got Cano) - 104
    2020 - 121
    2021 - 96

    Is it a coincidence that this team was better than league average when Cano was here? I don’t think so. Mets need him back.

    The trade wasn’t all that bad, especially considering Kelenic has been dog shit…he has a -1 fWAR LMAO. And some people want to act like Gimenez and his 0.1 fWAR is an abomination.

    Dunn + Kelenic have combined produced -0.9 fWAR, Swarzak gave them -0.6, Bautista gave them -0.5, and Bruce gave them 0.5.

    So all in all, the players the Mets traded have produced -1.5 fWAR for the Mariners, whereas Cano and Diaz combined have given the Mets 4.8 fWAR.

    So the Mets are winning that trade by 6.3 fWAR…and before somebody comes at me and says the Mets traded Kelenic when his value was low, they did the same with PCA…except 100x worse.

    Then we account for the fact that Bruce and Swarzak made Cano’s deal neutral in the first year…with Bruce being paid 13MM and Swarzak 7MM. Mariners send 4MM every year to compensate Cano’s 24MM salary. Second year, Mets only paid Cano 11MM (subtracting Bruce’s salary) Third year, Mets pay Cano the full amount. Fourth year, Cano gets suspended and the Mets don’t have to pay him anything….but the Mariners still sent over 4MM. Now for the last two years, the Mets pay Cano 24MM a year - then subtract 4MM from what the Mariners sent.

    So let’s do the math on what the Mets pay Cano

    Year 1: 0
    Year 2: 11MM
    Year 3: -4MM
    Year 4: 20MM
    Year 5: 20MM

    If my math is correct, the Mets pay Cano 47MM over the five years that he was here - or four, if you discount his suspension.

    So Mets take up 47MM in contracts (plus Diaz) in exchange for getting rid of -1.5 fWAR in garbage. Brodie’s not that bad after all, huh?

    But please tell me how Sandy and his net neutral Lindor trade got such a steal. Carrasco and Lindor have been worth 2.7 fWAR whereas Rosario and Gimenez have been combined something similar. That doesn’t even account for Greene and Wolf.


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    Where did you hear or read that Lindor wanted Chili Davis fired ?

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