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  1. #1
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    Is Vlad Jr for real?

    He's hitting like prime Cardinal Pujols atm.

    His overall batting numbers has skyrocketed across the board and is 1st in quite a few offensive categories except numbers involving speed?

    What's probably impressive is his walk/strike out ratio has turned into 1/1 and he has a ridiculous .450 OBP right now.

    It's only been 63 games though so i'm not sure what to expect.

    Legit, (if this is for real) the Jays have not had a hitter this complete since prime Carlos Delgado.

    Do you think he's going to come crashing down to earth?

    This is his true potential and he's breaking out?

    Somewhere in between?
    Until they prove the fans wrong again


  2. #2
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    Not sure this is fully for real because this would put him at historic numbers to finish the season. Can see him being like 85% of this though


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  3. #3
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    He was a 70 hit 80 power as a prospect. He's still just 22. He might be having the best season he will have in his career this year, but I have little doubt that he will continue to be one of the best hitters in the game. His "problem" - i say that because he was an above average hitter his first 2 seasons - was that he hit too many grounders. He's cut that rate quite a bit and his soft contact% is a ridiculous 10%. Maintaining a wRC+ twice as high as league average, I doubt will happen. But I can easily see 70-80% better. He's an absolute menace to all pitch types right now.

  4. #4
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    Is he THIS for real? Idk, but I would definitely say he should be a multiple time Allstar, Silver slugger winning player for a long time.

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  5. #5
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    The scary thing for pitchers to think about is that he could actually still get better. He hasnít hit his prime yet.

  6. #6
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    Since 1990, Barry Bonds is the only player to have a full season better than Vlad's current 206 wRC+ (and bonds did it 4 times). So just by that alone, it's highly likely he's not that legit if you're saying he needs to maintain his current pace.

    But if the question is whether or not he's going to be one of the best hitters in baseball for a long time, it's still probably a bit too early for that, but I think it's a pretty decent bet that he's in the silver slugger convo quite often and sees his name near the top of the leader boards in a few categories for awhile too. I think he's a really good hitter already and and the scouting reports expected him to be good, so it doesn't seem all that flukey, even if the numbers could be a bit inflated.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    The scary thing for pitchers to think about is that he could actually still get better. He hasnít hit his prime yet.
    Thing is two things can be true. He can still get better and improve as a hitter, but he also may never be as hot or put up the numbers he's currently putting up. Obviously baseball is a streaky sport, so hell have hot stretches. But if he'd hit as well as he's currently hitting for a full year, we're talking a borderline historic season. So I doubt his numbers actually get better, even if he improves on his individual skills.

  8. #8
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    Now, he hasnít yet completed 2021 with a wRC+ of 206, but if he did, thatís in 99th percentile territory. Iíve been working on calibrating this model since the start of the season, and projected right now, his 90th percentile wRC+ gets a bump to 163, but 206 still would have been seen as a one-in-50 shot to happen.

    As of Tuesday morning, Guerrero leads the American League in batting average, home runs, and RBI, baseballís Triple Crown components. His sterling performance has been enough for a wRC+ bump of an impressive 27 points since March in ZiPSí estimate of his current level of ability. At this point, itís hard to argue his ceiling has been raised; the main question is how high. In the updated projections, which combine year-to-date with the rest-of-season projections, ZiPS has Guerrero leading the league in home runs and RBI and finishing second in batting average behind Michael Brantley. Steamer has Guerrero leading in all three categories.

    Even if the stats were reset to zero, Vladitoís projections have improved to the point that heíd have a fighting chance to lead in the three stats, and be in the top 10 in each.

    What this doesnít tell us is the probability that Vlad does, in fact, win the Triple Crown. For that, I used the ZiPS season simulation and projected the rest of 2021 a million times for the American League, then added to the stats already in the books, counting ó by computer, not by hand, of courseĖ how many times each player led the league in the Triple Crown categories.

    Injuries have been a red flag for Brantley, but heís been healthy enough to qualify for the batting title in three consecutive seasons after missing more than 200 games in 2016 and í17 combined. Assuming perfect health, ZiPS would give him about a 43% chance of taking the batting title, but with him already having missed time with a hamstring injury, he has a smaller margin of error in getting the required plate appearances. ZiPS sees Vlad at the back of the top 10 in rest-of-season batting average, but heís got a 23-point cushion over the non-Brantley candidates. Also providing an assist is that two of the bigger threats, Mike Trout and Luis Arraez, are almost certainly going to fall short of 3.1 plate appearances per game (or lose too much BA if they fall just short in PA).

    ZiPS still sees Matt Olson and Giancarlo Stanton as better home run hitters, but the four-homer edge to date is enough to leave Vlad the favorite over either. The computer projects him with a 44% shot to beat his dadís career-high of 44; it surprises me too, but Vlad Sr. never led the league (or finished second) in any Triple Crown stat. The projections give him a 28% chance to pass the 50-homer threshold.

    Josť Abreu isnít repeating his 2020 season, but heís still a player who should hit for power, even in a relative down season. As importantly, Abreu hits third or fourth in a White Sox lineup thatís been surprisingly potent for a team thatís lost Eloy Jimťnez and Luis Robert. Nobody has more plate appearances with runners on base this season than Abreu. But the Jays are no slouches, and as with the other categories, Guerrero has the lead right now.

    If you wanted to be lazy, youíd multiply Vladís probability of leading each category together and get 2.6%, decent odds of getting into the record books. That, of course, is something you cannot actually do since these arenít independent variables. The hundred games of baseball that leave Guerrero with the home run title also leave him with the RBI title most of the time. Batting average isnít as highly correlated with the others, but if Guerrero hits .340, well, many of those hits will be homers and/or drive in runners. All told, ZiPS gives him a 19.1% chance of winning the Triple Crown. Not a bad shot at something thatís been done once in the last half-century.

    Leading all of baseball in the Triple Crown categories ó the Triple Crown Magnifique, as I like to call it ó is a trickier challenge. That one hasnít been done since Mickey Mantle in 1956, and Vlad has tough competition in this one. Fighting against Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald AcuŮa Jr. in a battle for junior supremacy drops his chances from 19.1% to well under 1% (0.2%).

    Whether he wins the Triple Crown or not, it appears the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era is in full swing. I donít have kids, but Iím at least of the belief that most parents hope to see their children exceed their accomplishments. Vladito has a long way to go, but 2021 looks like the start of a run that may end with him achieving just that.
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vlad-jr-...-triple-crown/


    The Lost Boys of PSD

  9. #9
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    46/41 K:BB

    .438 OBP


    his discipline will make him a top MVP candidate almost every year...

  10. #10
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    I know its early but I do think he will end up having a better offensive career than his father if he stays healthy.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Thing is two things can be true. He can still get better and improve as a hitter, but he also may never be as hot or put up the numbers he's currently putting up. Obviously baseball is a streaky sport, so hell have hot stretches. But if he'd hit as well as he's currently hitting for a full year, we're talking a borderline historic season. So I doubt his numbers actually get better, even if he improves on his individual skills.
    I agree that there are a lot of variables and he may never have this type of season again. But it's also just as possible that this is the tip of the iceberg and there's much more to come.

  12. #12
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    Is Vlad Jr for real?

    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    I agree that there are a lot of variables and he may never have this type of season again. But it's also just as possible that this is the tip of the iceberg and there's much more to come.
    I mean heís on like a top 50 season ever pace. Definitely not Ďjust as possible there is moreí over this being his peak.
    Last edited by koldjerky; 06-20-2021 at 02:23 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by koldjerky View Post
    I mean heís on like a top 50 season ever pace. Definitely not Ďjust as possible there is moreí over this being his peak.
    Exactly. Baseball is such a wierd sport where someone can legit improve and still never get back to previous highs.

    If this is the tip of the iceberg, we are legit looking at probably the best hitter since Barry Bonds. And that's entirely possible, but that's an absurd expectation to put on a guy.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Exactly. Baseball is such a wierd sport where someone can legit improve and still never get back to previous highs.

    If this is the tip of the iceberg, we are legit looking at probably the best hitter since Barry Bonds. And that's entirely possible, but that's an absurd expectation to put on a guy.
    Oddly enough Harper had his best statistical season at the same age as Vlad Jr is now. While Harper has still been a very good hitter since, heís never duplicated that season.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack of Blades View Post
    I don't consider Brand New indie. I consider them ****ing awesome and don't belong to a genre.

  15. #15
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    I do agree with you guys about your points. I just think it is possible that he still gets better. I don't think he's 100% where he wants to be physically yet, plus his body hasn't hit its physical prime yet.

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