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  1. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sofnr View Post
    I have to laugh at this sentiment that getting cheaper somehow made the Cubs get better pieces. The Cubs have been bargain bin shopping for 4 years. Having better luck this year has more to do with better pitchers moving through the system and an improving pitch lab that's getting better at turning the project guys around. There's absolutely no benefit to spending less money.
    Who could they have gotten that wouldnít have cost 250mm? Cole and Arenado were never options. The only regret was Castellanos and that was probably a Theo decision. The Yankees, Braves, Angels are barely a .500 team and those are the quote on quote big spenders besides the dodgers. They likely traded Darvish because they didnít think this core would have the resurgence it is having.

    Iíd love for them to spend big but I also donít want another 5th outfielder on $20+ million. I like that they are biding their time

    Honestly whoís leading their division rn that has a fat payroll.. the Brewers and Cubs not really, the blue Jays not really, the rays definitely not. I guess only the Astros

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sofnr View Post
    I have to laugh at this sentiment that getting cheaper somehow made the Cubs get better pieces. The Cubs have been bargain bin shopping for 4 years. Having better luck this year has more to do with better pitchers moving through the system and an improving pitch lab that's getting better at turning the project guys around. There's absolutely no benefit to spending less money.
    Yeah, Hoyer has a big decision to make with what he decides to do before the deadline. He has to decide whether or not this team is truly contending or just pretending, and whether or not to risk trading some good prospects..

    Off season comes, he might not be able to sign his free agents and his prospect pool is weakened a bit

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Yeah, Hoyer has a big decision to make with what he decides to do before the deadline. He has to decide whether or not this team is truly contending or just pretending, and whether or not to risk trading some good prospects..

    Off season comes, he might not be able to sign his free agents and his prospect pool is weakened a bit
    I think Jed already knows what this team is. Question is: will he be allowed to improve this team?
    Screw sabermetics.

  4. #199
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    6/11-6/13: Cardinals (32-30) at Cubs (35-27) IGT: Opening Day 2.0 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Bluefire View Post
    I think Jed already knows what this team is. Question is: will he be allowed to improve this team?
    Unless Ricketts wants even more criticism than whatís heís already dealt with, he better allow Jed to open the checkbook for adding salary.

    Then again, it wonít surprise me if they donít.

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  5. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeanutPunch33 View Post
    Who could they have gotten that wouldnít have cost 250mm? Cole and Arenado were never options. The only regret was Castellanos and that was probably a Theo decision. The Yankees, Braves, Angels are barely a .500 team and those are the quote on quote big spenders besides the dodgers. They likely traded Darvish because they didnít think this core would have the resurgence it is having.

    Iíd love for them to spend big but I also donít want another 5th outfielder on $20+ million. I like that they are biding their time

    Honestly whoís leading their division rn that has a fat payroll.. the Brewers and Cubs not really, the blue Jays not really, the rays definitely not. I guess only the Astros
    Why wasn't Arenado an option? Seems like he would have been perfect. Cost nothing except taking on his salary. Looked like any team in the league could have grabbed him. As one of the biggest markets in the league that's the sort of move the Cubs should be on every time. I've got no idea whether Theo thought Castellanos was worth his contract, but he probably didn't think about much anyway because he wasn't allowed any payroll. There are tons of guaranteed contracts the Cubs could've given out the last few years that wouldn't have broken any sort of bank. Instead they've mostly been relegated to minor league deals because the Ricketts claim they no have no money. I really don't care about a couple guys being overpaid. Nobody Theo has signed should have been a hindrance for the Chicago Cubs going forward and his FA signings really aren't near as bad as people want to pretend. Just Heyward. Owning the Cubs prints money.

    I'm super happy the Cubs are playing well right now. Its fun to watch. There are also ways they could have spent and been good. But being cheap gives them much less room for error and makes them much less likely to make actual improvements at the deadline. Nothing about cutting the payroll by dropping an ace made them better this year. We were always going to be buying a cheap bench and project guys. They do it every year.
    Last edited by Sofnr; 06-14-2021 at 02:05 PM.

  6. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Unless Ricketts wants even more criticism than whatís heís already dealt with, he better allow Jed to open the checkbook for adding salary.

    Then again, it wonít surprise me if they donít.
    I'm not sure which way he's going to go here. I'd bet on Wrigley still being packed next year even if he does nothing.
    Last edited by Sofnr; 06-14-2021 at 02:45 PM.

  7. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Unless Ricketts wants even more criticism than whatís heís already dealt with, he better allow Jed to open the checkbook for adding salary.

    Then again, it wonít surprise me if they donít.
    Not sure where theyre at under the Threshold now but, have to think that the max he'll probably have is to stay under it

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  8. #203
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    6/11-6/13: Cardinals (32-30) at Cubs (35-27) IGT: Opening Day 2.0 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    We have Davies/Arrieta/Kimbrel/Tepera/Winkler/Chafin plus Rizzo/Bryant/Baez/Joc to sell. Plus Marisnick/Duffy too I guess. I hope not selling is worth it. We basically have to win a WS this year otherwise not selling isn't worth sacrificing making the next 6+ years weaker (whatever prospects would give us). Talk about going all-in. I believe it was Ken Rosenthal last night on the ESPN broadcast that said he's talks with GMs said pitching is looking very scarce this year and will be something hard to trade for. Guys like Davies/Kimbrel etc would fetch something likely.

    The irony is payroll-wise we've spent far less this year than each of the last 3 seasons and are getting equal to better results so far. Hoyer may have accidentally or not accidentally found something, which is the value savings of putting together a fantastic bullpen, which typically costs far, far less than starting pitching and offense in payroll. Our pen can't cost much more than $25 mil, Kimbrel taking up almost all of it, and everyone else besides Chafin making peanuts.

    Meanwhile guys like Lester/Arrieta cost 5-6 million each and they aren't even good.
    Your take here is that is the Cubs donít win the World Series then not selling is a mistake? If thatís what you are going for, I couldnít disagree more.


    Also the Cubs have become good at identifying useful relievers that are available cheaply and they are finally promoting good pitchers from the system who are cheap because they are pre-arb. The cheapness isnít what makes them good. Kimbrel is paid very well and heís arguably the best reliever in mlb this year. Chafin is paid decently. They got really lucky with Tepera. He was non tendered at $900k and signed for $800k. Theyíve been able to develop good relievers from the system. Everybody understands the value of an elite bullpen, itís just really hard to build one and the less you can spend, the harder it is. It seems to have worked out this year for the Cubs, but building an elite pen without spending money on the pen is easier said than done. The hope is that will all these potentially impactful bullpen arms in the system the Cubs will be able to continue building a strong cheap bullpen but itís a year to year thing.
    Last edited by CP_414; 06-14-2021 at 03:42 PM.

  9. #204
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    6/11-6/13: Cardinals (32-30) at Cubs (35-27) IGT: Opening Day 2.0 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Not sure where theyre at under the Threshold now but, have to think that the max he'll probably have is to stay under it

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
    They are about $33 million under the tax. It would be pretty much impossible to come close to it with July additions. Theyíll be well under the tax regardless of what they do in July.

    To me, the tax line is the magic number for next year. If they can spend to the tax line or above for 2022 thereís is zero reason why they canít go into next year as the central favorites. If they can spend to 180-200 mil they have a chance to be solid and a good outcome would be being surprisingly good like this year. If the 2022 payroll is the same or lower as 2021 then they are probably screwed and they will be doing a multi-year rebuild after this season.
    Last edited by CP_414; 06-14-2021 at 03:43 PM.

  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    They are about $33 million under the tax. It would be pretty much impossible to come close to it with July additions. Theyíll be well under the tax regardless of what they do in July.

    To me, the tax line is the magic number for next year. If they can spend to the tax line or above for 2022 thereís is zero reason why they canít go into next year as the central favorites. If they can spend to 180-200 mil they have a chance to be solid and a good outcome would be being surprisingly good like this year. If the 2022 payroll is the same or lower as 2021 then they are probably screwed and they will be doing a multi-year rebuild after this season.
    Be interesting to see how the new CBA ends up with the tax threshold rules..

    In my mind, i see no reason why they shouldn't be spending over 200 mil again

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  11. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Be interesting to see how the new CBA ends up with the tax threshold rules..

    In my mind, i see no reason why they shouldn't be spending over 200 mil again

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
    If the lux tax line still exists in the next CBA, Iíd guess it jumps up a bit next year. Probably in the $215-220 range at least.

  12. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sofnr View Post
    Why wasn't Arenado an option? Seems like he would have been perfect. Cost nothing except taking on his salary. Looked like any team in the league could have grabbed him. As one of the biggest markets in the league that's the sort of move the Cubs should be on every time. I've got no idea whether Theo thought Castellanos was worth his contract, but he probably didn't think about much anyway because he wasn't allowed any payroll. There are tons of guaranteed contracts the Cubs could've given out the last few years that wouldn't have broken any sort of bank. Instead they've mostly been relegated to minor league deals because the Ricketts claim they no have no money. I really don't care about a couple guys being overpaid. Nobody Theo has signed should have been a hindrance for the Chicago Cubs going forward and his FA signings really aren't near as bad as people want to pretend. Just Heyward. Owning the Cubs prints money.

    I'm super happy the Cubs are playing well right now. Its fun to watch. There are also ways they could have spent and been good. But being cheap gives them much less room for error and makes them much less likely to make actual improvements at the deadline. Nothing about cutting the payroll by dropping an ace made them better this year. We were always going to be buying a cheap bench and project guys. They do it every year.
    Thatís true. I would have loved Arenado as well. But if they paid Arenado + Bryant + Rizzo + Baez, in a 3-4 years you have a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30, and they would have made that move before knowing these guys would have bounce back seasons. That might have turned into an Ď08 Cubs situation.

    I agree about Ricketts though, Iím not a fan of him at all. Hopefully Cuban is still interested in a few years.

    I personally would love adding Correa, Seager or Conforto next off season. And extend Baez, Bryant and Rizzo.

  13. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Your take here is that is the Cubs donít win the World Series then not selling is a mistake? If thatís what you are going for, I couldnít disagree more.
    Sort of. What I'm saying is the goal for any org is to win a World Series, and as many as possible year to year. The goal is to make moves to increase your chances of that. The choice at this deadline is: do you give up on this year and sell for prospects/players in order to increase your chances of winning 1 or more World Series over the next several years by making the farm system better? OR do you take a team that's playing well and go for a WS this year, maybe add some pieces at the deadline? (which likely also will cost prospects and make future seasons weaker).

    It's a cost/benefit analysis based on risk and probabilities etc., including how good they are at the deadline and what they could get back if they sell and give up if they buy If the Cubs choose to hold or buy at the deadline instead of selling it will make the Cubs weaker in future years (by how much depends on potential return of the FA guys they have) as opposed to if they sell.

    If they don't sell, whether it's the right move doesn't depend on if they win a WS, it depends on the cost/benefit analysis at the time the decision is made and if the risk is worth the cost. If the Cubs are still playing well at the deadline and/or can't get very good players back for the guys they could sell then obviously it's the right move to not sell.

  14. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeanutPunch33 View Post
    Thatís true. I would have loved Arenado as well. But if they paid Arenado + Bryant + Rizzo + Baez, in a 3-4 years you have a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30, and they would have made that move before knowing these guys would have bounce back seasons. That might have turned into an Ď08 Cubs situation.

    I agree about Ricketts though, Iím not a fan of him at all. Hopefully Cuban is still interested in a few years.

    I personally would love adding Correa, Seager or Conforto next off season. And extend Baez, Bryant and Rizzo.
    I think it depends on what other teams offer our guys. If Bryant, Rizzo, and/or Baez end up getting locked up with other teams until age 38 for big guaranteed money then we'd know it very likely wouldn't have been a good move to match or beat those offers. If we can sign them until they're around 36 with options for other years that have cheap buyouts then those are deals to sign. I'd rather pay a bit more in guaranteed money per year until a guy is ~36 years old than get stuck with a 38 year old guy making 24 million who sucks. I guess it will just depend on the market.

  15. #210
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    6/11-6/13: Cardinals (32-30) at Cubs (35-27) IGT: Opening Day 2.0 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    Sort of. What I'm saying is the goal for any org is to win a World Series, and as many as possible year to year. The goal is to make moves to increase your chances of that. The choice at this deadline is: do you give up on this year and sell for prospects/players in order to increase your chances of winning 1 or more World Series over the next several years by making the farm system better? OR do you take a team that's playing well and go for a WS this year, maybe add some pieces at the deadline? (which likely also will cost prospects and make future seasons weaker).

    It's a cost/benefit analysis based on risk and probabilities etc., including how good they are at the deadline and what they could get back if they sell and give up if they buy If the Cubs choose to hold or buy at the deadline instead of selling it will make the Cubs weaker in future years (by how much depends on potential return of the FA guys they have) as opposed to if they sell.

    If they don't sell, whether it's the right move doesn't depend on if they win a WS, it depends on the cost/benefit analysis at the time the decision is made and if the risk is worth the cost. If the Cubs are still playing well at the deadline and/or can't get very good players back for the guys they could sell then obviously it's the right move to not sell.
    The cubs making the playoffs this year probably gives them a better chance to win a World Series this year than any low level prospects they get in a trade to rent the players on the Cubs roster will give them in the future.

    There is also value in seasons that donít end with a World Series championship. I enjoyed 2015 and 2017. I enjoyed 2003, 2007, and 2008. I enjoyed 89 and 98. If the only success for a fan is winning the World Series then that fan is destined to be miserable.

    Selling because they think they can win the division but not the World Series would be really dumb. Weíve seen flawed teams win pennants and even World Series. Trade returns on rentals are not what they used to be. The cubs should add wisely and try to win the division. Then in the offseason they should spend money and try to win it again next year.

    Itís a false choice to pretend that giving up on this season significantly impacts their odds to win in the future. Or that buying makes them weaker in the future. Buying Castellanos didnít make them weaker in the future. Same with Hamels. You can acquire good players by taking on money in July.

    Making the playoffs can also be worth tens of millions to the organization. They arenít throwing in the towel on that for some low level prospects theyíd get for their rentals.
    Last edited by CP_414; 06-14-2021 at 10:38 PM.

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