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  1. #1
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    Adjusted Interceptions the past season

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...rceptions-2020

    wents is the overall leader.. threw 15 but should have thrown 21. Not shocking.

  2. #2
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    Looks like Mahomes' 17 dropped INTs was a bit of an exaggeration.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by QB_Eagles View Post
    Looks like Mahomes' 17 dropped INTs was a bit of an exaggeration.
    yup. Cant even deny it.

  4. #4
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    Jan 2011
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    Teddy is 5th on this list??

    I thought he did not turn the ball over and lose you games??

    Isnt he a great QB and Carolina just didnt know how to use him???

  5. #5
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    Dak had 5 dropped interceptions and 4 actual interceptions in 4 games. Can you imagine if he played 16 games?

  6. #6
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    13,538
    I'm a little skeptical of the Mahomes number tbh. I swear he had 7 dropped INTs just in the Pats and Falcons games haha.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nunuu View Post
    Teddy is 5th on this list??

    I thought he did not turn the ball over and lose you games??

    Isnt he a great QB and Carolina just didnt know how to use him???
    Must be because he didn't get more practice.

  7. #7
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    Mar 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by QQQ View Post
    Dak had 5 dropped interceptions and 4 actual interceptions in 4 games. Can you imagine if he played 16 games?
    His rate adjustment is towards the top of that list. To be fair, though, the adjustments they make (not counting them in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter) don't really fit with what Dak went through last season where he was forced to be super aggressive because the defense couldn't stop anyone. I doubt his rate would be as high if he wasn't trailing for the majority of every game played.

    In 2019 he was middle of the pack for adjusted rate. In 2018 he was among the lowest 8 QBs in adjusted rate and he was around the middle in adjusted rate in 2017 again. I think he's middle of the road when it comes to INTs (because he isn't the most accurate passer). The bad defense and having to throw every down and be really aggressive inflated those numbers last year.

  8. #8
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    Mar 2012
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    The season Wentz had last year is so weird compared to what he's done throughout his career. He has never thrown the interceptions like he did last year (even the adjusted ones looking back to 2017). He's usually bottom half of the league in adjusted interception rate. It'll be interesting to see what he does this year if it was truly a collapse in ability for him or just a bump in the road of an otherwise good career.

  9. #9
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    Lamar Jackson with a really big adjustment too. 16 adjusted INTs from 9 and a rate of 4.3%. That's pretty wild given how the Ravens play

  10. #10
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    Aug 2020
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    4,184

    Adjusted Interceptions the past season

    Quote Originally Posted by Mamba42 View Post
    The season Wentz had last year is so weird compared to what he's done throughout his career. He has never thrown the interceptions like he did last year (even the adjusted ones looking back to 2017). He's usually bottom half of the league in adjusted interception rate. It'll be interesting to see what he does this year if it was truly a collapse in ability for him or just a bump in the road of an otherwise good career.
    I know people donít like to hear this but I know for a fact that incorrect route running lead to picks, how many, Iím not sure but I know that it played somewhat of a factor.

  11. #11
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    Aug 2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamba42 View Post
    His rate adjustment is towards the top of that list. To be fair, though, the adjustments they make (not counting them in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter) don't really fit with what Dak went through last season where he was forced to be super aggressive because the defense couldn't stop anyone. I doubt his rate would be as high if he wasn't trailing for the majority of every game played.

    In 2019 he was middle of the pack for adjusted rate. In 2018 he was among the lowest 8 QBs in adjusted rate and he was around the middle in adjusted rate in 2017 again. I think he's middle of the road when it comes to INTs (because he isn't the most accurate passer). The bad defense and having to throw every down and be really aggressive inflated those numbers last year.
    Yeah thatís true

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by QQQ View Post
    Dak had 5 dropped interceptions and 4 actual interceptions in 4 games. Can you imagine if he played 16 games?
    Man, Dak would have had about 20 dropped interceptions!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  13. #13
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    Jun 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamba42 View Post
    The season Wentz had last year is so weird compared to what he's done throughout his career. He has never thrown the interceptions like he did last year (even the adjusted ones looking back to 2017). He's usually bottom half of the league in adjusted interception rate. It'll be interesting to see what he does this year if it was truly a collapse in ability for him or just a bump in the road of an otherwise good career.
    Last time I looked through I think Wentz was pretty steady between 2.6%-2.8% adjusted INT rate except last year being over 4%. Either lack of mental toughness or quitting on the team last year after drafting a QB.

    Dak has ranged from 2.3% to upper 2%s to mid 3%s to 4%s. Similar to Watson who has been top 5 and bottom 5 in just the past few years.

    Seems like Fitzpatrick and Darnold have been in the bottom 3rd / bottom 10 pretty consistently. Darnold you could blame circumstance for, but Fitz has been on some decent teams in there.

    Allen started at 5%ish and moved up to 2.6% and stuck there. Similar for Baker.




    I'd like to see a 10 year aggregation of the data (maybe one is paywalled at FO?) but haven't taken the time to put one together yet.
    Dak: 17,634 @ 66.0%, 7.7 per att, 106+24 TD, 40 INT+34 FMB, 97.3 Rate
    Wentz: 16,811 @ 62.7%, 6.7 per att, 113+8 TD, 50 INT+58 FMB, 89.2 Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    I'll eat a shoe if BB is still coaching in 5 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Sticking to traditions:

    IF Wentz is a Philadelphia Eagle in 2021, he will be the starter. If not, bye bye PSD, I'll leave.
    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

  14. #14
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    Mar 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    Last time I looked through I think Wentz was pretty steady between 2.6%-2.8% adjusted INT rate except last year being over 4%. Either lack of mental toughness or quitting on the team last year after drafting a QB.

    Dak has ranged from 2.3% to upper 2%s to mid 3%s to 4%s. Similar to Watson who has been top 5 and bottom 5 in just the past few years.

    Seems like Fitzpatrick and Darnold have been in the bottom 3rd / bottom 10 pretty consistently. Darnold you could blame circumstance for, but Fitz has been on some decent teams in there.

    Allen started at 5%ish and moved up to 2.6% and stuck there. Similar for Baker.




    I'd like to see a 10 year aggregation of the data (maybe one is paywalled at FO?) but haven't taken the time to put one together yet.
    Yeah it'd be really great to see these data over time so you could implicitly control for some of the mitigating factors like schedule and surrounding talent to a degree. Looking at their previous years, I think they've only collected that data since 2014 or 2015 though.

    Fitz makes a lot of sense with a higher percentage, though, he is a gunslinger. The perfect kind of backup QB IMO. Like Foles, he isn't really suited to being a starting QB teams still love to run them out there as starters.

  15. #15
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    Jun 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mamba42 View Post
    Yeah it'd be really great to see these data over time so you could implicitly control for some of the mitigating factors like schedule and surrounding talent to a degree. Looking at their previous years, I think they've only collected that data since 2014 or 2015 though.

    Fitz makes a lot of sense with a higher percentage, though, he is a gunslinger. The perfect kind of backup QB IMO. Like Foles, he isn't really suited to being a starting QB teams still love to run them out there as starters.
    The 2020 post has some net-NFL averages that indicate they have compiled data from 2007 to present. They only published the more recent years, as you mentioned.

    Ideally I'd scrape the QB data out of those annuals, then also grab the team schedules and DVOA for O/D so each year would have Adj INT % and the average pass-D DVOA, then create a metric of the two for a weighted Adj INT.

    Then some nice filters like winning season vs losing season, playoff team vs non-playoffs, etc.
    Dak: 17,634 @ 66.0%, 7.7 per att, 106+24 TD, 40 INT+34 FMB, 97.3 Rate
    Wentz: 16,811 @ 62.7%, 6.7 per att, 113+8 TD, 50 INT+58 FMB, 89.2 Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    I'll eat a shoe if BB is still coaching in 5 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Sticking to traditions:

    IF Wentz is a Philadelphia Eagle in 2021, he will be the starter. If not, bye bye PSD, I'll leave.
    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

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