Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





View Poll Results: Will we have more than 12 hits total and 10 runs total scored this series vs ATL?

Voters
1. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes: Here starts the comeback!

    0 0%
  • No: Lulz, might as well hit blindfolded

    1 100.00%
Page 9 of 10 FirstFirst ... 78910 LastLast
Results 121 to 135 of 147
  1. #121
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    24,888
    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Just heard on radio that Javy had an offer of 180 and turned it down...

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
    Buster Olney reported it yesterday during the game. Heyman backs up Olney’s report.

    Contract was offered after 2019 season and Baez turned it down. Doubt he will get anything close to that.

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  2. #122
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles County, CA
    Posts
    45,695
    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    You know way too well than to pretend three games, or 27 innings is in any way, shape, or form, a meaningful or worthwhile samplesize of data to present, Wolf. I'm not going to engage in a discussion where we're pretending otherwise. That's small sample data the extreme. Far more important and telling is their large sample data. Since then, again, we have the 4th best 1b, the 6th best 3b and the 7th best C. Given appropriate sample sizes I refuse to believe they wouldn't reflect this. It has little do with "being exposed" in September, either.

    September wRC+ for their careers:
    Bryant: 120 wRC+
    Contreras: 116 wRC+
    Rizzo: 116 wRC+

    They're not exposed. They're still well above average players and hitters during that time. And have been for their entire careers.

    Lastly, if we're going to blame the Cubs for drafting "trash" outside of the first few rounds, are we just going to exclude players like: Brennan Davis, Cole Roeder, Kohl Franklin, Chase Strumpf, Burl Carroway, Ethan Hearn, Michael McAvene, Jordan Nwogu? That's not a trash list. The Cubs, arguable, best prospect was a 2nd round selection, and the best SP prospect in the system could be Franklin. Thomas Hatch, a former Cubs pick was scheduled to make the Blue Jays roster out of camp. We should also know better than to expect a ton from the 2nd rounds on: I get it, some of these kids bombed and didn't make much of themselves, but even players like Brandon Little has placed themselves back into the conversation of "maybe we'll find something". These are lottery picks. There are four "not 1st round" picks in the Cubs top-10 right now.

    The frustrations of losing are causing some really irrational things. Like in the first week the consistent posts of "Hey look at this bad Cub stat" everyone loved. Guess what? One week later and the Cubs no longer have the worst MLB offense of all time any more (shocker). It took one weekend to jump to 23rd this year (I'm not stating it's been good, or defending it). We're using three game sample sizes as meaningful. Frustrations are running high, but it's time to find the middle ground. The Cubs issues have really never been Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras. They don't have super high K%. All three have been contact oriented bats. They're all roughly 80% contact guys. That's 5% above league average in 2020. The Cubs have issues. These players, are not it. If you want to point at Baez; have at it. He's always been an issue offensively. But he's also one people have been pointing out having issues for quite some time.
    IMO you can't just dismiss that. In the regular season you're gonna face a lot of crap. In the postseason you face the upper crust. Theyve had opportunities to advance the organization and get it back into the promised land, and they've been horrible. Entirely unable to hit high velocity or breaking stuff. You really don't think theyve been exposed by postseason pitching? A collective OPS around 500 with a 1:10 BBK, ok. For as much as we tend to hone in on the sss awfulness, you really put your blinders on when it comes to the best players on the team. The best players on the team have failed horribly in the last 4 playoffs. If they performed at replacement level, we probably advance. Its the playoffs. You're never going to get a big enough sample unless you are Derek Jeter or a Dodger these days. You have to perform in the few opportunities you get or the sample stays little. They hit like you would hope the last man on the bench could hit.

    You really look at their numbers against high fastballs, and rise, against breaking pitches, etc., and believe they haven't been exposed? We are talking about post-2016 here so their career numbers aren't relevant to me. I want to know how they perform against the best, against fellow playoff teams. Look at what a team like the Brewers regularly reduces these guys to.

    And yes most of their drafts have been garbage going back to 2012. We're talking about, what, 200-300 picks? More? I forget how many rounds there are but its in that range. Good for them that they maybe salvaged their record with a couple solid recent drafts. But the sample is a lot larger than that. And I'm not hanging my hat on 4 non-firsts being in our top 10 when our top 10 is not exactly well respected in the industry, so...

    I do love that theyve finally started taking swings on upside rather than seemingly targeting high-floor types. Obviously Davis is super exciting and some of those names are on my list of solid players to follow. But they could have fortified the roster with homegrown talent and simply didn't produce enough for too long a time. We could and should have been a powerhouse pipeline IMO. The opportunity for sustained success was there.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    13,555
    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Just heard on radio that Javy had an offer of 180 and turned it down...

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
    Ouch! You see players that have bet on themselves and after turning down a multi year contract from their teams to go through free agency, they have had to sign a one year contract as they haven't received many good offers. But $180M? That's a hell of a contract offer and now at this age, he probably wont break $100M. His bat won't get him that offer, no one is paying it for a players glove. You can't blame a guy for betting on himself.

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Posts
    7,788
    Quote Originally Posted by JHBulls View Post
    Ouch! You see players that have bet on themselves and after turning down a multi year contract from their teams to go through free agency, they have had to sign a one year contract as they haven't received many good offers. But $180M? That's a hell of a contract offer and now at this age, he probably wont break $100M. His bat won't get him that offer, no one is paying it for a players glove. You can't blame a guy for betting on himself.
    Yeah, 2020 took alot out of these guys , wouldn't surprise me if they really start pressing more then usual when they get in a funk throughout the year

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

  5. #125
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    5,365
    If thats true about the contract offer we should be thanking Baez from saving us from that awful contract. Hes a guy we need to let walk away. Give him a QO and I bet he doesn't get signed

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Posts
    189
    Hopefully Jed doesnt share the same vision of Baez that Theo apparently had. Baez has only had 1 season, out of 5 full seasons, in which you would even think about giving him a contract that big. Thank god he turned it down. Imagine having 2 Heywards locked up for the long haul.

  7. #127
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Posts
    1,801
    I wonder what's off with Javy? I know he's not going the other way like he has in the past, but also totally ineffective against good fastballs. Can he just not hit the fastball anymore? Bat slowed down?

    He's always been good at hitting breaking balls.

    I wonder if this is a timing thing or approach thing, or if it's an athletic decline? He seems a bit young for that to happen.

    Most people are good on KB now that he's hitting better. Fans are like the wind. Up until a week ago the sky was falling. 28 year olds don't often regress athletically overnight like Javy and KB. Buy low, sell high.
    Last edited by Stratos; 04-19-2021 at 04:07 PM.

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    10,030
    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Just heard on radio that Javy had an offer of 180 and turned it down...

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
    I can't imagine two things here. 1) Anybody offering him 180 mil. 2) Javi turning down 180 mil.

    Let's just say a team offered him a 6 year deal. I'd say that 90 million would be the max he would get.

    In an unrelated topic. I'm certain that I don't understand how wRC+ works. Either that, or the stat (if it's actually a stat) is useless.

    This year for Javi

    BB 1.7%
    K 45%
    214/267/464/731
    wRC+ 98

    So these numbers are just about league average? Not getting it.

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Posts
    1,801
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I can't imagine two things here. 1) Anybody offering him 180 mil. 2) Javi turning down 180 mil.

    Let's just say a team offered him a 6 year deal. I'd say that 90 million would be the max he would get.

    In an unrelated topic. I'm certain that I don't understand how wRC+ works. Either that, or the stat (if it's actually a stat) is useless.

    This year for Javi

    BB 1.7%
    K 45%
    214/267/464/731
    wRC+ 98

    So these numbers are just about league average? Not getting it.
    I think you're reading it right. But let's remember that there's a lot of teams and players struggling with hitting numbers so far, especially BA AVG (and as a consequence OBP also). His SLG% is decent. I can't remember if 100 is league average or 100 is replacement level.

  10. #130
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    3,266
    Quote Originally Posted by JHBulls View Post
    Ouch! You see players that have bet on themselves and after turning down a multi year contract from their teams to go through free agency, they have had to sign a one year contract as they haven't received many good offers. But $180M? That's a hell of a contract offer and now at this age, he probably wont break $100M. His bat won't get him that offer, no one is paying it for a players glove. You can't blame a guy for betting on himself.
    I just hope the Cubs don’t keep trying to extend him. Love good Javy but he’s such a huge risk. Give me Bryzzo and everyone else can go.

  11. #131
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    57,812
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I can't imagine two things here. 1) Anybody offering him 180 mil. 2) Javi turning down 180 mil.

    Let's just say a team offered him a 6 year deal. I'd say that 90 million would be the max he would get.

    In an unrelated topic. I'm certain that I don't understand how wRC+ works. Either that, or the stat (if it's actually a stat) is useless.

    This year for Javi

    BB 1.7%
    K 45%
    214/267/464/731
    wRC+ 98

    So these numbers are just about league average? Not getting it.
    I do not mean this rudely, but I have to start this post from this position: you don't understand wRC+. It's far from useless; it's easily the best silver-bullet quick be-all rating for offense. So let's break it down together and help understand why wRC+ is so damn good.

    What is wRC+?

    It stands for weighted runs created plus (you may know this, but it'll come into play later). Basically, it exists for one reason; OPS is flawed, and we need to fix it. There was a time period in which OPS was groundbreaking; 15 years ago it was buzzy. But it's 2021 now, and much like America Online changed internet, but then went the way of the dinosaur, so should OPS. wRC+ is the fiber optic of statistics; it's here to replace. We need to stop using dialup. It's time to get some high speed internet.

    To begin to answer your question about Baez, wRC+ won't take into account things like K% or BB%. It's there to look at his ability to create runs, to weight things correctly and then adjust those numbers to make things equal. If there's one thing wRC+ is obsessed with it's fairness. We'll get to why his 98 wRC+ is what it is, and what it means going forward as I go.

    Let's get to the most logical starting place...what's league average OPS right now? A league average OPS today is .703. So, if we were using flat out OPS, Javier Baez, with his line is actually above it. Right now, league OBP is at it's lowest it's been in over 50 years. Offense is way down league wide. OPS in 2020 was .740 last year. So even in a better offensive climate Baez is actually normally around league average. Yet, he's a sub 100 wRC+ player. It's now time to dive into things a big more.

    OPS is Flawed

    Biggest thing you can understand right now; OPS is flawed. OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals. OBP and SLG are on the wrong scales to compare; a .400 OBP is better than a .400 SLG because a .400 OBP is .400 out of a 1.000 scale, and a .400 SLG is out of a 4.000 scale. OPS doesn't know how to deal with this; .800 is .800 to OPS. Just add 'em together. If you need another way to look at it...think of it this way; $10 USD and ¥10 are very different. $10 can get you 10 candy bars. ¥10 is worth less than a penny. Why? Different scales!

    wRC+ will solve the scale issue that OPS creates. The .400 OBP is far better than the .400 SLG, yet OPS doesn't understand. So we need to fix this. Baez's horrible OBP is the reason he's below league average, and why an OPS above league average is actually below league average offensively. wRC+ will account for this, as it rejiggers things to more fairly weight things (putting OBP and SLG on equitable scales). This is what the little "w" stands for; weighted. It properly weights your OBP and your SLG instead of OPS which is unweighted. A more basic version of wRC+ is wOBA (or weighted On Base Average); essentially OPS if it was weighted (note the little w i "wOBA". Any time you see w anything...it's weighted). It's close to being wRC+ good, but it's missing something. It's missing the adjustment.

    So what it means is that even though Baez has a .730 OPS, and the league average is .703, he's below league average wRC+. Why? It's all slugging. His OBP is so sucky that he's a below average hitter; the scaling issue is being solved by wRC+

    Adjustments at the Plate

    The second way wRC+ will fix OPS is by adjusting; not all players are equal. Some players hit in a good ballpark for offense. Others hit in bad eras for offense. That's not fair; and wRC+ is all about fairness, so it fixes it and makes everyone on an equal level. It means that we can not only compare Baez to all MLB players right now, but literally any MLB player in the history of the league using one offensive number. Remember, OPS is jacked to begin with on how it adds things up. Now remember that an .800 OPS in the steroid era and the dead ball era are very different, yet again, OPS treats these numbers the exact same. .800=.800 to OPS. So how do we fix that? Adjust for league offense! Which wRC+ does. That means a player with an .800 OPS in 1998 and an .800 OPS in 1976 will probably have very different wRC+ even if OPS thinks they're equal. Using wRC+, though, a 115 wRC+ player and a 115 wRC+ across eras are equally as offensively valued because it's already done the work for you. The same goes for a 2021 OPS in Coors vs Comerica. We know one player gets a boost, the other a negative. So wRC+ is there to the recuse again, and will put you on a level playing field. This is the "plus". Anytime you see a "plus" at the end, this is league/era adjusted.

    If we want to project things heading forward, that's when we, as rational logical people who understand statistics need to use our ability of sustainability to understand and project out. Baez's K% and contact percentage are so bad he's not going to be able to keep that and a near league average wRC+ heading forward. He's unsustainable right now.

    Your too long; didn't read
    1) You don't understand wRC+ (and it's okay, we all learn new things, now you should understand it heading forward).
    2) It's anything but useless. Please, for the love of all things baseball, don't use OPS. Use wRC+. It's infinitely better. OPS should die a quick death. We have better ways now. wRC+ is doing what OPS does just way better.
    3) Baez's wRC+ is near league average for a few reasons; league offense is down, but his OBP is so bad it's actually negatively affecting him
    4) He's unsustainable right now.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 04-19-2021 at 10:12 PM.

  12. #132
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    57,812
    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    IMO you can't just dismiss that. In the regular season you're gonna face a lot of crap. In the postseason you face the upper crust. Theyve had opportunities to advance the organization and get it back into the promised land, and they've been horrible. Entirely unable to hit high velocity or breaking stuff. You really don't think theyve been exposed by postseason pitching? A collective OPS around 500 with a 1:10 BBK, ok. For as much as we tend to hone in on the sss awfulness, you really put your blinders on when it comes to the best players on the team. The best players on the team have failed horribly in the last 4 playoffs. If they performed at replacement level, we probably advance. Its the playoffs. You're never going to get a big enough sample unless you are Derek Jeter or a Dodger these days. You have to perform in the few opportunities you get or the sample stays little. They hit like you would hope the last man on the bench could hit.

    You really look at their numbers against high fastballs, and rise, against breaking pitches, etc., and believe they haven't been exposed? We are talking about post-2016 here so their career numbers aren't relevant to me. I want to know how they perform against the best, against fellow playoff teams. Look at what a team like the Brewers regularly reduces these guys to.

    And yes most of their drafts have been garbage going back to 2012. We're talking about, what, 200-300 picks? More? I forget how many rounds there are but its in that range. Good for them that they maybe salvaged their record with a couple solid recent drafts. But the sample is a lot larger than that. And I'm not hanging my hat on 4 non-firsts being in our top 10 when our top 10 is not exactly well respected in the industry, so...

    I do love that theyve finally started taking swings on upside rather than seemingly targeting high-floor types. Obviously Davis is super exciting and some of those names are on my list of solid players to follow. But they could have fortified the roster with homegrown talent and simply didn't produce enough for too long a time. We could and should have been a powerhouse pipeline IMO. The opportunity for sustained success was there.
    Yeah, they haven't been "exposed" in September. You're moving the goalposts by saying "high fastballs". Your post was about September, that somehow in September they get exposed. So do they get exposed in September? Their career numbers, as posted, suggest "no, they don't".

    2017:
    Bryant: 143 wRC+
    Rizzo: 90 wRC+
    Contreras: 125 wRC+

    2018:
    Bryant: 109 wRC+ (through a bum shoulder)
    Rizzo: 123 wRC+
    Conteras: 28 wRC+ (his worst month of his career, also straight off an injury)

    2019:
    Bryant: 148 wRC+
    Rizzo: 138 wRC+
    Conteras: 120 wRC+

    So, no, they have not been "exposed" in September. If "they have flaws at the plate" is your argument; no ****. They're not Mike Trout. They have flaws, and pitchers look to exploit that. It's also a goalpost move. Most hitters have flaws. That's a poor argument. If your argument is "they don't hit in the playoffs well" I'll continue to go back to "it's 50 PAs and you know better than to pretend that's a meaningful sample size". Yes, the playoffs you see better pitching, we should also understand that when looking at numbers. There's a lot in play, and that's why frankly, those numbers are pretty meaningless, especially in the premise of; these players are not fundamentally the issue with the Cubs. They're good players and have done well down the stretch over their careers; I fully expect if they had triple the PA's in the playoffs, they'd even out just fine. Your premise of, and I quote "they get exposed in September" is wrong. It's blatantly wrong.

    On the drafting; you know better here too. These are ****ing lottery tickets. You're shocked a lot didn't work out? Do they not get credit for their IFA finds? Guys like Cease they dealt away? We've been over this 100 times. Like I said, they have 4 of their top-10 prospects as guys rounds 2 and later. 40%. The ability to have "sustained success" was traded to support a team ready to win. They dealt their prospects. They signed FA's and gave up picks. They barely drafted, for example, in 2017 because they spent money in the FA market (before the CBA changed). The Cubs had prospects. They used them in other ways. They had a gap in production because of many reasons. Yeah, some of the lottery tickets had a higher bust rate for a bit, but it seems to be fixed. Hell, Max Bain an MiLB FA just showed up to camp today as a 6"5 SP throwing at 99mph. The Cubs are doing a fine job here. They always had been; it's just hard to see when Cease and Eloy are across town, Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Parades went to Detroit, Thomas Hatch is in Toronto...
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 04-19-2021 at 10:28 PM.

  13. #133
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles County, CA
    Posts
    45,695
    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Yeah, they haven't been "exposed" in September. You're moving the goalposts by saying "high fastballs". Your post was about September, that somehow in September they get exposed. So do they get exposed in September? Their career numbers, as posted, suggest "no, they don't".

    2017:
    Bryant: 143 wRC+
    Rizzo: 90 wRC+
    Contreras: 125 wRC+

    2018:
    Bryant: 109 wRC+ (through a bum shoulder)
    Rizzo: 123 wRC+
    Conteras: 28 wRC+ (his worst month of his career, also straight off an injury)

    2019:
    Bryant: 148 wRC+
    Rizzo: 138 wRC+
    Conteras: 120 wRC+

    So, no, they have not been "exposed" in September. If "they have flaws at the plate" is your argument; no ****. They're not Mike Trout. They have flaws, and pitchers look to exploit that. It's also a goalpost move. Most hitters have flaws. That's a poor argument. If your argument is "they don't hit in the playoffs well" I'll continue to go back to "it's 50 PAs and you know better than to pretend that's a meaningful sample size". Yes, the playoffs you see better pitching, we should also understand that when looking at numbers. There's a lot in play, and that's why frankly, those numbers are pretty meaningless, especially in the premise of; these players are not fundamentally the issue with the Cubs. They're good players and have done well down the stretch over their careers; I fully expect if they had triple the PA's in the playoffs, they'd even out just fine. Your premise of, and I quote "they get exposed in September" is wrong. It's blatantly wrong.

    On the drafting; you know better here too. These are ****ing lottery tickets. You're shocked a lot didn't work out? Do they not get credit for their IFA finds? Guys like Cease they dealt away? We've been over this 100 times. Like I said, they have 4 of their top-10 prospects as guys rounds 2 and later. 40%. The ability to have "sustained success" was traded to support a team ready to win. They dealt their prospects. They signed FA's and gave up picks. They barely drafted, for example, in 2017 because they spent money in the FA market (before the CBA changed). The Cubs had prospects. They used them in other ways. They had a gap in production because of many reasons. Yeah, some of the lottery tickets had a higher bust rate for a bit, but it seems to be fixed. Hell, Max Bain an MiLB FA just showed up to camp today as a 6"5 SP throwing at 99mph. The Cubs are doing a fine job here. They always had been; it's just hard to see when Cease and Eloy are across town, Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Parades went to Detroit, Thomas Hatch is in Toronto...
    My original post said they get exposed down the stretch/September and into the playoffs for accuracy's sake. And I didn't move goalposts by bringing up the fashion in which the get exposed; thats just elaborating on a point that I had not elaborated on initially. But its the same point I've been pounding (velo and breaking ball struggles galore) for 2 years as the bane of their struggles from how I see it. Look, its to be expected to not put up normal numbers against the best pitching in the game in the playoffs. But we are literally talking about their numbers being cut in half and reduced to straight up worthlessness. The walks and power completely evaporate from Bryzzo. They've had virtually no positive impact in the playoffs for 4 years. Extrapolate and expect water to find its level and all that, all you want. But I don't see it that way. They have been entirely shut down and dominated. The offense hasn't been versatile enough to handle playoff pitching. And the core has sucked balls.

    So ill take the L on the September comment. NBD. I also credited them with possibly righting the draft ship. But I'm not letting them off the hook for the few terrible drafts they had prior. They've done very well in the IFA market when they've had no restrictions. I absolutely credit that.

    Like I said I give them all the props for finally catching up to (most of) the league with their lab and its produced fabulous results so far and we are on the right track there. But we leave a lot to be desired now in the hitting department. Development at the ML level is questionable. There aren't many bats in our minors that really excite scouts and evaluators. Not compared to the rest of the league.

    I'll end on this: 50 PA is not enough and you said you'd expect a players numbers to even out given thrice the sample

    Career postseason

    Rizzo 162 PA 654 OPS 12:38
    KB 167 PA 705 OPS 13:52
    Willy 94 PA 746 13:21

    This is not what should be expected out of your best players. It's ok to say that they made our dreams come true and to also say that theyve sucked in the playoffs since and to not have much faith that things will be different if they do make the postseason again because things have only gotten worse (2 runs scored in last 3 playoff games)

  14. #134
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    57,812
    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    My original post said they get exposed down the stretch/September and into the playoffs for accuracy's sake. And I didn't move goalposts by bringing up the fashion in which the get exposed; thats just elaborating on a point that I had not elaborated on initially. But its the same point I've been pounding (velo and breaking ball struggles galore) for 2 years as the bane of their struggles from how I see it. Look, its to be expected to not put up normal numbers against the best pitching in the game in the playoffs. But we are literally talking about their numbers being cut in half and reduced to straight up worthlessness. The walks and power completely evaporate from Bryzzo. They've had virtually no positive impact in the playoffs for 4 years. Extrapolate and expect water to find its level and all that, all you want. But I don't see it that way. They have been entirely shut down and dominated. The offense hasn't been versatile enough to handle playoff pitching. And the core has sucked balls.

    So ill take the L on the September comment. NBD. I also credited them with possibly righting the draft ship. But I'm not letting them off the hook for the few terrible drafts they had prior. They've done very well in the IFA market when they've had no restrictions. I absolutely credit that.

    Like I said I give them all the props for finally catching up to (most of) the league with their lab and its produced fabulous results so far and we are on the right track there. But we leave a lot to be desired now in the hitting department. Development at the ML level is questionable. There aren't many bats in our minors that really excite scouts and evaluators. Not compared to the rest of the league.

    I'll end on this: 50 PA is not enough and you said you'd expect a players numbers to even out given thrice the sample

    Career postseason

    Rizzo 162 PA 654 OPS 12:38
    KB 167 PA 705 OPS 13:52
    Willy 94 PA 746 13:21

    This is not what should be expected out of your best players. It's ok to say that they made our dreams come true and to also say that theyve sucked in the playoffs since and to not have much faith that things will be different if they do make the postseason again because things have only gotten worse (2 runs scored in last 3 playoff games)
    I will continue to fight tooth and nail on this draft thing because it's the single laziest narrative Cubs fans have over the last 10 years. Baseball fans have proven time and time again they have zero concept of how the MLB draft works and you are falling into the pitfall. The "hitting" department? The Cubs literally fixed broken players like Rizzo and Baez at the MLB level and made them above average hitters at the MLB for spans (Baez, seems to be slipping again). They have fixed Bryant's contact issues; a player who had far higher K% originally. They developed Willson Contreras from nothing prospect to starting MLB C and good hitter. Are there holes? Sure. But can we please stop acting like "Bryant struggles with high fastballs" is some how some special thing that Bryant struggles with and other good players don't. They've developed players like Brennan Davis and rebuilt his swing, Jordan Nwogu is going to be another experiment in rebuilding swings. They developed Gleyber Torres from teenager to top-5 prospect, same for Eloy Jimenez.

    The Cubs have drafted well. Every high first rounder made the MLB and made positive contributions. The "worst" of the bunch is Almora and he borders on being enough WAR to be "successful". They've found gems across the board. Cease, Davis, Strumpf, Nwogu, Franklin, etc. They've done great in IFA; Jimenez, Torres, Soler. People who want to blame the Cubs drafting and IFA finds want to blame them for not having a consistent pipeline. But add into this roster all of the traded players and then ask yourself "would the Cubs be in a way better place right now?" (the answer is a clear yes). And then ask yourself "would I really feel the Cubs didn't have a consistent pipeline?" They have another really nice line of prospects lining up right now, before they go drafting top-10 again. There was a consistent line. The Cubs didn't keep it to support the team. It's a lazy narrative that ignores everything the Cubs developed out of nothing, and a lazy narrative that ignores who isn't here any more.

    If you want to criticize the team in development it's in the pitching. They were slow. They were slow on the pitch lab. They were slow on the development. Craig Breslow, however, is clearly fixing this. Big Breslow fanboy and thankfully he's not only supercharged the development of the arms recently, we're seeing the Cubs change the pitching game on their own (high sinkers are a new game the Cubs like to play, for example).

    You seem to want to blame their "drafting and IFA development" on the Cubs refusal to spend money and support players at the MLB level. The Cubs drafted well. They developed well. They traded a lot of these guys. Hell, the last few years, despite the fact that they struggle at certain things...the offensive MLB woes have been somewhat overblown, by again, baseball fans who don't understand that no team is consistent offensively. Every team has peaks and valleys, the Cubs SD is really no different. Why did the Cubs fail in 2019? Their bench. They gave tons of PA's to loser hitters. Why are they bad again? Loser hitters. Bryant, Contreras and Rizzo are the three best hitters on the team and have either career average wRC+'s or better. Who sucks? The bums the team won't support these guys with.

    I won't ever say these guys are perfect. They struggle with high fastballs. They struggle with curve balls. Their small sample post season numbers aren't great, but again, while the "triple" their numbers line was shortsighted, I again stand by the "large numbers even out". The "three games" thing is literally the worst argument one can make; yeah the last 3 games sucked. They're over the course of multiple seasons. And shocker, both times Bryant was hurt.

    My original point remains: the Cubs issues this year are not these 3 players. It's never been these three players. The Cubs have had issues. It's not these three. Having them under extension isn't a "handcuff" as someone suggested. We shouldn't be excited to trade them for nothing and replace them with veteran losers like Brandon Belt next year as the Cubs cry poor and play 70 win baseball. And starting in 2019, if the Chicago Cubs gave a ****, they could have surrounded these players with a real BP and a real bench, and this year, with a real team, and they'd have a chance.

  15. #135
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    10,030
    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    I do not mean this rudely, but I have to start this post from this position: you don't understand wRC+. It's far from useless; it's easily the best silver-bullet quick be-all rating for offense. So let's break it down together and help understand why wRC+ is so damn good.

    What is wRC+?

    It stands for weighted runs created plus (you may know this, but it'll come into play later). Basically, it exists for one reason; OPS is flawed, and we need to fix it. There was a time period in which OPS was groundbreaking; 15 years ago it was buzzy. But it's 2021 now, and much like America Online changed internet, but then went the way of the dinosaur, so should OPS. wRC+ is the fiber optic of statistics; it's here to replace. We need to stop using dialup. It's time to get some high speed internet.

    To begin to answer your question about Baez, wRC+ won't take into account things like K% or BB%. It's there to look at his ability to create runs, to weight things correctly and then adjust those numbers to make things equal. If there's one thing wRC+ is obsessed with it's fairness. We'll get to why his 98 wRC+ is what it is, and what it means going forward as I go.

    Let's get to the most logical starting place...what's league average OPS right now? A league average OPS today is .703. So, if we were using flat out OPS, Javier Baez, with his line is actually above it. Right now, league OBP is at it's lowest it's been in over 50 years. Offense is way down league wide. OPS in 2020 was .740 last year. So even in a better offensive climate Baez is actually normally around league average. Yet, he's a sub 100 wRC+ player. It's now time to dive into things a big more.

    OPS is Flawed

    Biggest thing you can understand right now; OPS is flawed. OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals. OBP and SLG are on the wrong scales to compare; a .400 OBP is better than a .400 SLG because a .400 OBP is .400 out of a 1.000 scale, and a .400 SLG is out of a 4.000 scale. OPS doesn't know how to deal with this; .800 is .800 to OPS. Just add 'em together. If you need another way to look at it...think of it this way; $10 USD and ¥10 are very different. $10 can get you 10 candy bars. ¥10 is worth less than a penny. Why? Different scales!

    wRC+ will solve the scale issue that OPS creates. The .400 OBP is far better than the .400 SLG, yet OPS doesn't understand. So we need to fix this. Baez's horrible OBP is the reason he's below league average, and why an OPS above league average is actually below league average offensively. wRC+ will account for this, as it rejiggers things to more fairly weight things (putting OBP and SLG on equitable scales). This is what the little "w" stands for; weighted. It properly weights your OBP and your SLG instead of OPS which is unweighted. A more basic version of wRC+ is wOBA (or weighted On Base Average); essentially OPS if it was weighted (note the little w i "wOBA". Any time you see w anything...it's weighted). It's close to being wRC+ good, but it's missing something. It's missing the adjustment.

    So what it means is that even though Baez has a .730 OPS, and the league average is .703, he's below league average wRC+. Why? It's all slugging. His OBP is so sucky that he's a below average hitter; the scaling issue is being solved by wRC+

    Adjustments at the Plate

    The second way wRC+ will fix OPS is by adjusting; not all players are equal. Some players hit in a good ballpark for offense. Others hit in bad eras for offense. That's not fair; and wRC+ is all about fairness, so it fixes it and makes everyone on an equal level. It means that we can not only compare Baez to all MLB players right now, but literally any MLB player in the history of the league using one offensive number. Remember, OPS is jacked to begin with on how it adds things up. Now remember that an .800 OPS in the steroid era and the dead ball era are very different, yet again, OPS treats these numbers the exact same. .800=.800 to OPS. So how do we fix that? Adjust for league offense! Which wRC+ does. That means a player with an .800 OPS in 1998 and an .800 OPS in 1976 will probably have very different wRC+ even if OPS thinks they're equal. Using wRC+, though, a 115 wRC+ player and a 115 wRC+ across eras are equally as offensively valued because it's already done the work for you. The same goes for a 2021 OPS in Coors vs Comerica. We know one player gets a boost, the other a negative. So wRC+ is there to the recuse again, and will put you on a level playing field. This is the "plus". Anytime you see a "plus" at the end, this is league/era adjusted.

    If we want to project things heading forward, that's when we, as rational logical people who understand statistics need to use our ability of sustainability to understand and project out. Baez's K% and contact percentage are so bad he's not going to be able to keep that and a near league average wRC+ heading forward. He's unsustainable right now.

    Your too long; didn't read
    1) You don't understand wRC+ (and it's okay, we all learn new things, now you should understand it heading forward).
    2) It's anything but useless. Please, for the love of all things baseball, don't use OPS. Use wRC+. It's infinitely better. OPS should die a quick death. We have better ways now. wRC+ is doing what OPS does just way better.
    3) Baez's wRC+ is near league average for a few reasons; league offense is down, but his OBP is so bad it's actually negatively affecting him
    4) He's unsustainable right now.
    I understand that wRC+ doesn't factor in BB/K. I just put that in there to show how bad he's been doing.

    I started to get on board with metrics about 10 years ago. I'm starting to waver a bit as some are not making sense to me. Although wRC+ may be the best overall metric to use offensively, it seems like doing bad is acceptable because a lot of the other hitters are doing bad. I can't imagine that what Javi has done so far this year is acceptable in any year. But here we are calling his performance at the plate average to this point.

    Your counterpoint is impressive and a lot of work was put in to it. Thanks very much.

Page 9 of 10 FirstFirst ... 78910 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •