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View Poll Results: Will we have more than 12 hits total and 10 runs total scored this series vs ATL?

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  • Yes: Here starts the comeback!

    0 0%
  • No: Lulz, might as well hit blindfolded

    1 100.00%
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Results 136 to 147 of 147
  1. #136
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  2. #137
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    4/16-4/18: Braves (5-8) at Cubs (5-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I understand that wRC+ doesn't factor in BB/K. I just put that in there to show how bad he's been doing.

    I started to get on board with metrics about 10 years ago. I'm starting to waver a bit as some are not making sense to me. Although wRC+ may be the best overall metric to use offensively, it seems like doing bad is acceptable because a lot of the other hitters are doing bad. I can't imagine that what Javi has done so far this year is acceptable in any year. But here we are calling his performance at the plate average to this point.

    Your counterpoint is impressive and a lot of work was put in to it. Thanks very much.
    I feel like you are still misunderstanding what the stat reflects. wRC+ is just a reflection of overall offensive performance vs league average. It makes no judgements about what is acceptable.

    I think the difficulty some fans are having is that they don’t realize how far offense has fallen in MLB. We’ve all watched the Cubs struggles, and those are more significant than most of the league, but the average mlb slash line is .233/.311/.390. Going back to 1950 and projecting the current mlb average over a full year that would be the lowest BA and the 7th lowest obp in 70+ years. A league average hitter today and a league average hitter 20 years ago would have very different stats. Is it far fetched that a hitter with a .214/.267/.464 would be about average in a league with an average line of .233/.311/.390? He’s down about 35 points of OBP but up about 75 points of slug over the league average and wRC+ says that puts him almost in line with average at this moment.

    The other thing with Javy is that his “league average” stats are being propped up by an impossibly high hr/FB rate (40%). He’s on pace for about 45 HR over a full season and he’s still just league average offensively in a league with terrible offense. That’s a reflection of his struggles outside of the the 4 HRs. As the HR/FB comes down, his wRC+ will fall dramatically if he continues to struggle to put the ball in play.
    Last edited by CP_414; 04-20-2021 at 11:36 AM.

  3. #138
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    The Mets IGT will be up in the next hour or two.

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  4. #139
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    Jul 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I feel like you are still misunderstanding what the stat reflects. wRC+ is just a reflection of overall offensive performance vs league average. It makes no judgements about what is acceptable.

    I think the difficulty some fans are having is that they don’t realize how far offense has fallen in MLB. We’ve all watched the Cubs struggles, and those are more significant than most of the league, but the average mlb slash line is .233/.311/.390. Going back to 1950 and projecting the current mlb average over a full year that would be the lowest BA and the 7th lowest obp in 70+ years. A league average hitter today and a league average hitter 20 years ago would have very different stats. Is it far fetched that a hitter with a .214/.267/.464 would be about average in a league with an average line of .233/.311/.390? He’s down about 35 points of OBP but up about 75 points of slug over the league average and wRC+ says that puts him almost in line with average at this moment.

    The other thing with Javy is that his “league average” stats are being propped up by an impossibly high hr/FB rate (40%). He’s on pace for about 45 HR over a full season and he’s still just league average offensively in a league with terrible offense. That’s a reflection of his struggles outside of the the 4 HRs. As the HR/FB comes down, his wRC+ will fall dramatically if he continues to struggle to put the ball in play.
    His hard hit % is at a career high, and so is his pull%, and last year was a career high too for pull%. He's totally pulling off the ball and also not able to catch up to the FB. Only balls i've seen him crush are breaking balls.

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    His hard hit % is at a career high, and so is his pull%, and last year was a career high too for pull%. He's totally pulling off the ball and also not able to catch up to the FB. Only balls i've seen him crush are breaking balls.
    When you have 8 extra base hits and you’ve only put 29 balls in play your hard hit numbers are probably going to be pretty good.

  6. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I understand that wRC+ doesn't factor in BB/K. I just put that in there to show how bad he's been doing.

    I started to get on board with metrics about 10 years ago. I'm starting to waver a bit as some are not making sense to me. Although wRC+ may be the best overall metric to use offensively, it seems like doing bad is acceptable because a lot of the other hitters are doing bad. I can't imagine that what Javi has done so far this year is acceptable in any year. But here we are calling his performance at the plate average to this point.

    Your counterpoint is impressive and a lot of work was put in to it. Thanks very much.
    100 doesn't mean "acceptable", it just means league average. Right now a lot of hitters are struggling, so we can say Baez hasn't been doing great, but compared to who? Baez has a low OBP right now but a .464 SLG, which is pretty decent, and he's also stolen 5 bases and hasn't been caught stealing, which bumps up his wRC+.

    Baez hasn't been great or even good but he's been hitting a lot better than Joc, Heyward, and Happ who have been just useless, and there's lots of that going around the league.

  7. #142
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    Aug 2006
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    57,820
    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I understand that wRC+ doesn't factor in BB/K. I just put that in there to show how bad he's been doing.

    I started to get on board with metrics about 10 years ago. I'm starting to waver a bit as some are not making sense to me. Although wRC+ may be the best overall metric to use offensively, it seems like doing bad is acceptable because a lot of the other hitters are doing bad. I can't imagine that what Javi has done so far this year is acceptable in any year. But here we are calling his performance at the plate average to this point.

    Your counterpoint is impressive and a lot of work was put in to it. Thanks very much.
    Metrics should never "make you waver" because they're explaining things in a way you don't like. "I don't think Baez feels average, so I don't like it" is what your argument is boiling down to. Instead of thinking of it that way, think of it by saying "maybe the issue lies in how I think about statistics and what average is". Use it as a personal challenge inward, don't rail against the number. As logical people we can understand that his K% is unsustainable, and he won't keep presenting as average(ish) if it stays there, but he's outpaced his strikeout rate so far. wRC+ isn't perfect and with its inputs it can't understand, especially in 50 PAs trends (at a full year, it's super solid, however). We know that he can't keep hitting this many home runs, striking out this often, and walking so few...wRC+ can't. It's not got enough sample size. There are always parts up to the user to understand these things; we still need our brain to interpret things.

    wRC+ doesn't benefit bad hitters because others are bad. This is a simplistic way if thinking of it. It tries to understand league trends all together. Right now, offense across baseball is down, probably, in a good part, due to jacking with the baseball...again. OBP is way down. SLG is way down. Velocity is up. K's are up. BABIP is way down. So we have to contextualize this. It's a different era than, say, 1998.

    It's okay to say "I don't understand this statistic". Thats a mature and correct thing to do when you don't get something. But, again, you seem to want to use an excuse of "this statistic doesn't lineup with how I want to understand things" as an excuse to be "wary" or "waver". The issue isn't with the statistic. Statistics and information presented in new ways should challenge your world view. Let it. Let yourself be changed. wRC+ is there to do what OPS and stuff did 15 years ago; make use realize we may not see the full story. Like how winning 20 games as a SP doesn't mean a lot, or that having a highish batting average on its own doesn't say much...wRC+ is there to once again say "maybe what you think isn't actually the reality".

    Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 04-21-2021 at 07:00 AM.

  8. #143
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    Nov 2014
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    If it makes anyone feel better, Javy’s wRC+ is down to 86 after another terrible performance last night.

  9. #144
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    Jun 2004
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    If it makes anyone feel better Javy has (somehow) produced these results while lowering his chase rate and increasing his zone swing rate at a clip only bettered by 5 other hitters from last season to this year.

  10. #145
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    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Metrics should never "make you waver" because they're explaining things in a way you don't like. "I don't think Baez feels average, so I don't like it" is what your argument is boiling down to. Instead of thinking of it that way, think of it by saying "maybe the issue lies in how I think about statistics and what average is". Use it as a personal challenge inward, don't rail against the number. As logical people we can understand that his K% is unsustainable, and he won't keep presenting as average(ish) if it stays there, but he's outpaced his strikeout rate so far. wRC+ isn't perfect and with its inputs it can't understand, especially in 50 PAs trends (at a full year, it's super solid, however). We know that he can't keep hitting this many home runs, striking out this often, and walking so few...wRC+ can't. It's not got enough sample size. There are always parts up to the user to understand these things; we still need our brain to interpret things.

    wRC+ doesn't benefit bad hitters because others are bad. This is a simplistic way if thinking of it. It tries to understand league trends all together. Right now, offense across baseball is down, probably, in a good part, due to jacking with the baseball...again. OBP is way down. SLG is way down. Velocity is up. K's are up. BABIP is way down. So we have to contextualize this. It's a different era than, say, 1998.

    It's okay to say "I don't understand this statistic". Thats a mature and correct thing to do when you don't get something. But, again, you seem to want to use an excuse of "this statistic doesn't lineup with how I want to understand things" as an excuse to be "wary" or "waver". The issue isn't with the statistic. Statistics and information presented in new ways should challenge your world view. Let it. Let yourself be changed. wRC+ is there to do what OPS and stuff did 15 years ago; make use realize we may not see the full story. Like how winning 20 games as a SP doesn't mean a lot, or that having a highish batting average on its own doesn't say much...wRC+ is there to once again say "maybe what you think isn't actually the reality".

    Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
    Excellent points and post. Thanks!

  11. #146
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    Jul 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    If it makes anyone feel better Javy has (somehow) produced these results while lowering his chase rate and increasing his zone swing rate at a clip only bettered by 5 other hitters from last season to this year.
    I might be wrong but it seems like he missing alot more FB over the plate then usual

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

  12. #147
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    Aug 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    I might be wrong but it seems like he missing alot more FB over the plate then usual

    Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
    That hit where he should have been, but somehow wasn't, at 2nd? That was his first hit off a 4 seam fastball all season.

    Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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