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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Yes, the ratings are falling, but ratings are falling across the board. But generally speaking, live sports are decreasing at a much slower rate than most of the other prime time showings. With the different streaming services, particularly some without great advertising options, share of prime markets is a bigger deal than raw ratings. Network sports events are still arguably the best way to reach the alot of those target audiences.

    I work in marketing. The company I'm at isn't large enough to do really any TV advertising outside of some very niche local TV type spots. But we do advertise digitally alot. With some of the privacy agreements coming down from Google and Apple and those companies that should give consumers more control of their online privacy, it may make digital targeting a little more difficult. So for large brands, it likely means large scale television is still a decent way to build awareness at that level. So if you focus on viewership share vs potential reach and all of that, live sports continues to grow its value to those companies.
    So without making this a long-winded debate about something in contrast to the original point... Do you believe that the NBA is primed for a 2016-like cap raise as a result of a new TV deal in light of recent viewership?

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    I wouldn't pay that as a GM, but the Bucks are desperate.
    Jrue had all the leverage because of how much they gave up to get him. They couldnít just let him opt out and walk after that, so yeah I agree they sorta had to do this.

    I guess this is what it entailed to keep Giannis happy.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    So without making this a long-winded debate about something in contrast to the original point... Do you believe that the NBA is primed for a 2016-like cap raise as a result of a new TV deal in light of recent viewership?
    I donít think so, I mean theyíve lost a lot of money by not being able to put butts in seats, and that can def have an effect. I donít think the cap goes down, but I donít see the significant jump the way we saw in 2016 either. I could be wrong though. Iím not entirely sure of all the factors at play.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith&wesson View Post
    I donít think so, I mean theyíve lost a lot of money by not being able to put butts in seats, and that can def have an effect. I donít think the cap goes down, but I donít see the significant jump the way we saw in 2016 either. I could be wrong though. Iím not entirely sure of all the factors at play.
    I mean you have RSNs requesting a refund for the games not played right now for 2020. I just don't see how there is any sort of massive increase.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by ewing View Post
    Does anyone Randle and Holidayís play make ADís decision to quit on NO look worse?
    From an outside perspective yes, though Iím sure AD is happy with his decision.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    So without making this a long-winded debate about something in contrast to the original point... Do you believe that the NBA is primed for a 2016-like cap raise as a result of a new TV deal in light of recent viewership?
    Not as big as '16 but I think there will absolutely be a decent bump. But it doesn't take a ton of searching to already see the conversations. The leagues deal tripled in 2016. Rumors now are they are looking triple it again in the near future. Not sure they quite triple it, but doubling TV revenue wouldnt at all be a shock.

    NBA is still gsinign popularity, particularly amongst a younger audience. Those audiences are such a high priority for brands. The lifetime value of a 25 year old committed customer is so much higher than a 50 year old. 18-49 is the biggest target demo and the NBA is arguably the most popular sport amongst the younger side of that demo. Brands will pay for NBA games, which means networks will too. And streaming services will only get stronger between now and when the NBA negotiates a new deal. Amazon already got in the bidding for the NFL. Given some of the less than ideal relationships that regional sports networks like Bally have with the streamers, I'd be shocked if the streamers don't get more aggressive in the NBA's new deal too.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith&wesson View Post
    Jrue had all the leverage because of how much they gave up to get him. They couldnít just let him opt out and walk after that, so yeah I agree they sorta had to do this.

    I guess this is what it entailed to keep Giannis happy.
    Real question though. Is Jrue a max player? Probably not. Does Jrue get a max offer on the open market? I would say he probably does or at least gets super close. It's gotten to the point where anyone who's even in the all star conversation is basically a max guy hasn't it?

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    I mean you have RSNs requesting a refund for the games not played right now for 2020. I just don't see how there is any sort of massive increase.
    You guys are focusing way too much on the results of a once in a lifetime global pandemic and not the big picture. Maybe the money gets shifted a bit due to pandemic, but when we're talking long term media deals, the pandemic will play virtually no impact. Again, it's basically a once in a lifetime type event. Unless this starts happening frequently, it won't impact TV deals and likely ends up being a blip on the radar for long term revenues.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    You guys are focusing way too much on the results of a once in a lifetime global pandemic and not the big picture. Maybe the money gets shifted a bit due to pandemic, but when we're talking long term media deals, the pandemic will play virtually no impact. Again, it's basically a once in a lifetime type event. Unless this starts happening frequently, it won't impact TV deals and likely ends up being a blip on the radar for long term revenues.
    I think you're also overlooking just a common sense approach. Why lock into any sort of long term deal with such uncertainty? COVID-19 is not going away even with vaccination. Literally every expert has acknowledged this is not a 1-2 year fix, especially with all the new strains. Just judging from my experience in operations, whenever you're facing risk, you mitigate it one of two ways (very similar to loan underwriting) you either give into unfavorable deal and make it a very short term deal, or you make it a very long term deal on super favorable terms when faced with high risks.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    I think you're also overlooking just a common sense approach. Why lock into any sort of long term deal with such uncertainty? COVID-19 is not going away even with vaccination. Literally every expert has acknowledged this is not a 1-2 year fix, especially with all the new strains. Just judging from my experience in operations, whenever you're facing risk, you mitigate it one of two ways (very similar to loan underwriting) you either give into unfavorable deal and make it a very short term deal, or you make it a very long term deal on super favorable terms when faced with high risks.
    But from a TV perspective, the long term risk is relatively low. The league generally knows now how to relatively mitigate it. The fans in the stands thing doesn't impact the TV deal. The NBA has mostly been able to play through the covid issues. Had last season not been pushed out, they would have played a full schedule this year with almost no TV interruptions. And that TV money is a significantly bigger deal than ticket sales. Even if stadium attendance takes a while to fully bounce back, the cap will still see a fairly strong jump with a new TV though, but that deal is a few years out yet. I have no doubt barring any major changes between now and then, that the new TV deal will be a very large increase.

    If anything, the global pandemic highlighted how they didn't have a contingency plan in place. Now the league has all but figured out a plan with testing, isolation and so on. Even if things flare back up, they know the protocols to follow to play relatively safe basketball. You're talking about a short term shutdown at most.

    Plus, the NFL literally just signed a massive deal. That is evidence that covid concerns really aren't havinf an impact on TV rights. Perhaps there's some payback clause written in, but the total money was still a massive increase. That should be a very telling sign that TV deals are still going strong.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But from a TV perspective, the long term risk is relatively low. The league generally knows now how to relatively mitigate it. The fans in the stands thing doesn't impact the TV deal. The NBA has mostly been able to play through the covid issues. Had last season not been pushed out, they would have played a full schedule this year with almost no TV interruptions. And that TV money is a significantly bigger deal than ticket sales. Even if stadium attendance takes a while to fully bounce back, the cap will still see a fairly strong jump with a new TV though, but that deal is a few years out yet. I have no doubt barring any major changes between now and then, that the new TV deal will be a very large increase.

    If anything, the global pandemic highlighted how they didn't have a contingency plan in place. Now the league has all but figured out a plan with testing, isolation and so on. Even if things flare back up, they know the protocols to follow to play relatively safe basketball. You're talking about a short term shutdown at most.

    Plus, the NFL literally just signed a massive deal. That is evidence that covid concerns really aren't havinf an impact on TV rights. Perhaps there's some payback clause written in, but the total money was still a massive increase. That should be a very telling sign that TV deals are still going strong.
    NBA will never be the NFL though. One you watch games for free and has a season that's expanding and other is basically dependent on a paid subscription and due to Covid-19 has a season that's shrunken, and which has had harsh negotiations amount the major buyers of RSN.

    Either way time will tell where the cap goes, but either way it's a shaky strategy to base signings on what might happen when you're a small market team.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Real question though. Is Jrue a max player? Probably not. Does Jrue get a max offer on the open market? I would say he probably does or at least gets super close. It's gotten to the point where anyone who's even in the all star conversation is basically a max guy hasn't it?
    Middleton isnít really a max guy either, but has a massive contract as well. But both Jrue and Middleton are pretty much perfect compliments to Giannis. And with teams like Milwaukee, they often have to over pay to keep their stars. Toronto is another example of that, I donít think anyone thinks Siakam is worth the contract that he is on either. But whatís the alternative for these teams? In order to stay competitive they gotta over spend to keep their best players, other wise itís a constant revolving door.

    I thought about the Jrue contract and yeah it does look bloated but then I asked myself who else would the Bucks spend that cap on? Theyíre capped out and so retaining their own talent to go over is like their only option to remain in contention at this point.

    Free agent destination are about 5-6 teams in the league. I would say the Lakers & Heat are main stays in that conversation because they are simply the most desirable cities to live in, in terms of popularity, weather etc beyond that itís whoever are legit contenders at the time.

    Teams like the Twolves, Raptors, Bucks, Pacers etc are always gonna find them selves in that position where theyíll over pay for their star players to stay put in order to remain competitive. Through that lens I think the bucks did what they had to do. And to your point if the bucks donít offer him that max then another team who struggles to land free agents def would. Atleast thatís the way I perceive the league. Itís not exactly a fair playing ground and itís almost impossible to make it that way because guys will always prefer to be in a hand full of cities vs the rest. Thatís just reality.
    Last edited by smith&wesson; 04-06-2021 at 02:56 PM.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by beasted86 View Post
    I mean you have RSNs requesting a refund for the games not played right now for 2020. I just don't see how there is any sort of massive increase.
    Yeah the NBA has to be conservative because no one truly knows the impact of the pandemic financially. Itís hard to imagine the league making so much money from TV revenue that it would cover the loss the league has taken over all in the last year and a half. 2016 I think was a special case tbh. I donít see a significant jump like that happening for some time. If anything I wonder of the possibility of the cap going lower.

  14. #44
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    It's crazy how desperate Milwaukee has been to keep Giannis, especially after screwing up royally and letting Brogdon go. But Holiday, while a good two-way guard and floor general, isn't the killer closer Giannis needs to get over the hump. That's someone more in the vein of Lillard, Kyrie or even Paul.
    Milwaukee will continue to flounder against teams like Brooklyn and Philadelphia, and Giannis will eventually seek a trade. Luckily he's young enough that the Bucks will get a massive haul of assets and picks for him, if they don't wait too long to make the trade.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrblisterdundee View Post
    It's crazy how desperate Milwaukee has been to keep Giannis, especially after screwing up royally and letting Brogdon go. But Holiday, while a good two-way guard and floor general, isn't the killer closer Giannis needs to get over the hump. That's someone more in the vein of Lillard, Kyrie or even Paul.
    Milwaukee will continue to flounder against teams like Brooklyn and Philadelphia, and Giannis will eventually seek a trade. Luckily he's young enough that the Bucks will get a massive haul of assets and picks for him, if they don't wait too long to make the trade.
    Giannis is suppose to be that killer bro. Middleton & Jrue are the complimentary pieces.

    Also the Irvingís, Lillards, or even the Paulís of the world arenít available, even if they were the Bucks donít have the cap space to attain them. They can resign their own players and go over but they canít target a free agent and throw a max at him. I think the Bucks have done a fine job surrounding Giannis and at this point itís on him to get them to the promise land.

    Also while Irving is a great offensive weapon, Jrue is def the better team mate, defender, leader etc. There are things that Jrue brings to the team other than just scoring. The guys always a top vote for team mate of the year and I think he does a lot more for team camaraderie than someone like Kyrie who is very talented but can be detrimental to a team if heís not happy at any given time. I donít trust that dudes mentality.

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