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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    2021 Dodgers Predictions

    World Series?

    Team MVP?

    Team Cy Young?

    Does Lux emerge?

    What role does CT3 play?

    Best everyday lineup?

    Statistical projections?

    Anything and everything, letís predict the year ahead
    The Tweeter Handle: @DSchneider_05

  2. #2
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    The last few springs - mired deep in narratives that heís past his prime and no longer elite or whatever else has been said - have brought about a sort of annual tradition of musing about Clayton Kershawís fight against time.

    I think I did a pretty decent job in projecting him near the top of the league again last year and, bucking the trend, I think he shows more improvement relative to the rest of the league again this year. The main reason; deadened baseballs.

    Hereís why...

    Amongst all active pitchers since 2017 Clayton Kershaw has given up the 12th most home runs per fly ball in all of baseball. Heís also given up the 44th most HR/9 - he and Verlander are the only two ďeliteĒ starters anywhere near the worst in the league in these categories. Also working against his narrative is that in 2019 Kershaw had, by far, his worst walk rate since 2013, presumably an extension of adjusting his attack plan to account for the sudden jump in HRAs he experienced from 2017 forward. In addition to all of this, concerns have been raised each year that his FIP (3.51 over the last 3 seasons) suggests that he hasnít been remotely elite in any year over this period...

    Still, the eye test tells us a different story and, despite all of this, Clayton Kershaw maintains the 4th lowest ERA in MLB over the last three seasons. While some will say that FIP is superior to ERA as an indicator of future performance, Iíd counter by arguing that Kershawís past 3 years of actual results paired with some other key indicators reveal that this is not an anomaly.

    Thereís a fangraphs article which discusses a pitching metric called Effective Velocity (developed by Perry Husband and referred to herein as EV) which, in short, attempts to chart the variations in a pitcherís velocity and location to create a gauge for his ability to keep hitters of balance and induce weak contact.

    (read more about EV here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/effect...ity-disciples/)

    Kershaw has long been one of the best in the league at keeping hitters off balance even as his velocity started to dip. When balls started flying out of the fields like they were anti-gravity chambers, hitters began sitting on his pitches (generally so for most fly ball pitchers) and hoping to crank one out. And they were effective at doing so. CK saw his HR/FB jump from a career average of far under 10% to 15.9% in 2017, to 12.7, 18.5, and 17.4 in the successive seasons respectively. Not only will deadened baseballs keep him in the yard, but it will make it extraordinarily hard to score runs against CK who is already extraordinarily hard to score against. I also think heíll see an improvement in his control if he adjusts back to attacking without fear that he might have an offering launched if he misses a location.

    Again, Kershaw may be more exception than rule, but he certainly helps to make a case that FIP is not the all encompassing standalone statistic we often want it to be, especially heading into this particular season where baseball flight patterns are certain to drop short of the fence with more frequency. How big of an impact that has remains to be seen, but if CK shows the same stuff he had last year and can cut further into his walk rate by alleviating the fear of being burned by the long ball so frequently, I can see yet another elite year wherein, not only his ERA is near the tops of the league, but his FIP is reflective of it as well.

    Iím going to give him the following

    190inn
    200k
    40bb
    2.10 ERA
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 02-28-2021 at 12:34 PM. Reason: General Sloppiness and Missed Points
    The Tweeter Handle: @DSchneider_05

  3. #3
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    Division Standings and Records...

    PECOTA has the following win projections for the NL West...

    Dodgers 103
    Padres 96
    DBacks 79
    Giants 75
    Rockies 60

    Any surprises here?
    The Tweeter Handle: @DSchneider_05

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Division Standings and Records...

    PECOTA has the following win projections for the NL West...

    Dodgers 103
    Padres 96
    DBacks 79
    Giants 75
    Rockies 60

    Any surprises here?
    Thatís 75 too many wins for the Giants.


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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    Thatís 75 too many wins for the Giants.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


    I mean, I guess the only real question is do they finish >103 games out of first?
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 03-01-2021 at 10:52 AM.
    The Tweeter Handle: @DSchneider_05

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    Thatís 75 too many wins for the Giants.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    lmao.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Division Standings and Records...

    PECOTA has the following win projections for the NL West...

    Dodgers 103
    Padres 96
    DBacks 79
    Giants 75
    Rockies 60

    Any surprises here?
    Pretty spot on. Padres are legit. Hope we go head to head with them in the NLCS.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post


    I mean, I guess the only real question is do they finish >103 games out of first?
    Whatever the number of games is that weíre playing this season, thatís how many games out of first they will be [emoji23][emoji23]


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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteShadow42 View Post
    Pretty spot on. Padres are legit. Hope we go head to head with them in the NLCS.
    I agree. I would love a nice rivalry for the next 3-5 years that takes over baseball.


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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    I agree. I would love a nice rivalry for the next 3-5 years that takes over baseball.


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    Me too. The Padres have been bad for a long time and it's nice to see them great again. One of my all time favorite players was Tony Gwinn. My brother in law was assistant sports editor for the San Diego Tribune and he got me to meet Tony Gwinn. Such a soft spoken person. Spent about 5 minutes with us just talking about life.

    Hope it becomes bench emptying. Love those heated rivalries.

  11. #11
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    I've always hated the Padres. Especially during the Jake Peavy era.

    Future Hall of Shamers:
    (1) B.A.L.C.O. Barroids (2) Mark McJuicer (3) Jose Chem-seco (4) Rafael Palmeiroids (5) Ken Chem-initi (6) Jason Gi-andro (7) Ryan Fraud (8) Muscle Melk (9) Woman-Ram (10) Shammy Sosa (11) Roger Clear-mens (12) A-Roid (13) Ryan HGHoward

  12. #12
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    I always liked playing the Padres as a kid. I wasnít big on the team, but I loved watching Tony Gwynn hit and really liked some other players they had go through there like McGriff and Sheffield. I didnít start to dislike them until the Peavy era as well.

    Itís obviously not on par with the Giants rivalry, but itíll be good to have an actual challenge in the division since the Giants have been run into the ground and the Diamondbacks are still far more worried about becoming a rival than actually putting a quality product on the field.
    The Tweeter Handle: @DSchneider_05

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    I always liked playing the Padres as a kid. I wasnít big on the team, but I loved watching Tony Gwynn hit and really liked some other players they had go through there like McGriff and Sheffield. I didnít start to dislike them until the Peavy era as well.

    Itís obviously not on par with the Giants rivalry, but itíll be good to have an actual challenge in the division since the Giants have been run into the ground and the Diamondbacks are still far more worried about becoming a rival than actually putting a quality product on the field.
    Man what the hell happened to the DBacks. They went from being the Diamondbacks to the CubicZirconiabacks.

  14. #14
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    I am going to go with 110 wins and a hopeful loss to the White Sox in the World Series (1959 rematch)
    My Ignore List: bklynny67, nastynice, OhSoSlick, spliff(TONE), zmaster52

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett05 View Post
    I am going to go with 110 wins and a hopeful loss to the White Sox in the World Series (1959 rematch)
    We need another pine tar incident Mr. Brett.

    Future Hall of Shamers:
    (1) B.A.L.C.O. Barroids (2) Mark McJuicer (3) Jose Chem-seco (4) Rafael Palmeiroids (5) Ken Chem-initi (6) Jason Gi-andro (7) Ryan Fraud (8) Muscle Melk (9) Woman-Ram (10) Shammy Sosa (11) Roger Clear-mens (12) A-Roid (13) Ryan HGHoward

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