2021 Dodgers Predictions

[GibbyIsMyHero]

World Series?

Team MVP?

Team Cy Young?

Does Lux emerge?

What role does CT3 play?

Best everyday lineup?

Statistical projections?

Anything and everything, let’s predict the year ahead

[GibbyIsMyHero]

The last few springs - mired deep in narratives that he’s past his prime and no longer elite or whatever else has been said - have brought about a sort of annual tradition of musing about Clayton Kershaw’s fight against time.

I think I did a pretty decent job in projecting him near the top of the league again last year and, bucking the trend, I think he shows more improvement relative to the rest of the league again this year. The main reason; deadened baseballs.

Here’s why...

Amongst all active pitchers since 2017 Clayton Kershaw has given up the 12th most home runs per fly ball in all of baseball. He’s also given up the 44th most HR/9 - he and Verlander are the only two “elite” starters anywhere near the worst in the league in these categories. Also working against his narrative is that in 2019 Kershaw had, by far, his worst walk rate since 2013, presumably an extension of adjusting his attack plan to account for the sudden jump in HRAs he experienced from 2017 forward. In addition to all of this, concerns have been raised each year that his FIP (3.51 over the last 3 seasons) suggests that he hasn’t been remotely elite in any year over this period...

Still, the eye test tells us a different story and, despite all of this, Clayton Kershaw maintains the 4th lowest ERA in MLB over the last three seasons. While some will say that FIP is superior to ERA as an indicator of future performance, I’d counter by arguing that Kershaw’s past 3 years of actual results paired with some other key indicators reveal that this is not an anomaly.

There’s a fangraphs article which discusses a pitching metric called Effective Velocity (developed by Perry Husband and referred to herein as EV) which, in short, attempts to chart the variations in a pitcher’s velocity and location to create a gauge for his ability to keep hitters of balance and induce weak contact.

(read more about EV here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/effect...ity-disciples/)

Kershaw has long been one of the best in the league at keeping hitters off balance even as his velocity started to dip. When balls started flying out of the fields like they were anti-gravity chambers, hitters began sitting on his pitches (generally so for most fly ball pitchers) and hoping to crank one out. And they were effective at doing so. CK saw his HR/FB jump from a career average of far under 10% to 15.9% in 2017, to 12.7, 18.5, and 17.4 in the successive seasons respectively. Not only will deadened baseballs keep him in the yard, but it will make it extraordinarily hard to score runs against CK who is already extraordinarily hard to score against. I also think he’ll see an improvement in his control if he adjusts back to attacking without fear that he might have an offering launched if he misses a location.

Again, Kershaw may be more exception than rule, but he certainly helps to make a case that FIP is not the all encompassing standalone statistic we often want it to be, especially heading into this particular season where baseball flight patterns are certain to drop short of the fence with more frequency. How big of an impact that has remains to be seen, but if CK shows the same stuff he had last year and can cut further into his walk rate by alleviating the fear of being burned by the long ball so frequently, I can see yet another elite year wherein, not only his ERA is near the tops of the league, but his FIP is reflective of it as well.

I’m going to give him the following

190inn
200k
40bb
2.10 ERA

[GibbyIsMyHero]

Division Standings and Records...

PECOTA has the following win projections for the NL West...

Dodgers 103
Padres 96
DBacks 79
Giants 75
Rockies 60

Any surprises here?

[KobeOwnSU]

Division Standings and Records...

PECOTA has the following win projections for the NL West...

Dodgers 103
Padres 96
DBacks 79
Giants 75
Rockies 60

Any surprises here?

That’s 75 too many wins for the Giants.


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[GibbyIsMyHero]

That’s 75 too many wins for the Giants.

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I mean, I guess the only real question is do they finish >103 games out of first?

[WhiteShadow42]

That’s 75 too many wins for the Giants.


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lmao.

[WhiteShadow42]

Division Standings and Records...

PECOTA has the following win projections for the NL West...

Dodgers 103
Padres 96
DBacks 79
Giants 75
Rockies 60

Any surprises here?

Pretty spot on. Padres are legit. Hope we go head to head with them in the NLCS.

[KobeOwnSU]

I mean, I guess the only real question is do they finish >103 games out of first?

Whatever the number of games is that we’re playing this season, that’s how many games out of first they will be [emoji23][emoji23]


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[KobeOwnSU]

Pretty spot on. Padres are legit. Hope we go head to head with them in the NLCS.

I agree. I would love a nice rivalry for the next 3-5 years that takes over baseball.


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[WhiteShadow42]

I agree. I would love a nice rivalry for the next 3-5 years that takes over baseball.


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Me too. The Padres have been bad for a long time and it's nice to see them great again. One of my all time favorite players was Tony Gwinn. My brother in law was assistant sports editor for the San Diego Tribune and he got me to meet Tony Gwinn. Such a soft spoken person. Spent about 5 minutes with us just talking about life.

Hope it becomes bench emptying. Love those heated rivalries.

[dodgerdave]

I've always hated the Padres. Especially during the Jake Peavy era.

[GibbyIsMyHero]

I always liked playing the Padres as a kid. I wasn’t big on the team, but I loved watching Tony Gwynn hit and really liked some other players they had go through there like McGriff and Sheffield. I didn’t start to dislike them until the Peavy era as well.

It’s obviously not on par with the Giants rivalry, but it’ll be good to have an actual challenge in the division since the Giants have been run into the ground and the Diamondbacks are still far more worried about becoming a rival than actually putting a quality product on the field.

[WhiteShadow42]

I always liked playing the Padres as a kid. I wasn’t big on the team, but I loved watching Tony Gwynn hit and really liked some other players they had go through there like McGriff and Sheffield. I didn’t start to dislike them until the Peavy era as well.

It’s obviously not on par with the Giants rivalry, but it’ll be good to have an actual challenge in the division since the Giants have been run into the ground and the Diamondbacks are still far more worried about becoming a rival than actually putting a quality product on the field.

Man what the hell happened to the DBacks. They went from being the Diamondbacks to the CubicZirconiabacks.

[brett05]

I am going to go with 110 wins and a hopeful loss to the White Sox in the World Series (1959 rematch)

[dodgerdave]

I am going to go with 110 wins and a hopeful loss to the White Sox in the World Series (1959 rematch)

We need another pine tar incident Mr. Brett.