More attractive bigman moving forward, Julius Randle or Porzingawd?

[ewing]

I'm not going to comment on Porzingis. That's an entirely separate can of worms. There's no way of properly predicting his future.

I will, however, suggest that people are getting WAY too excited about Julius Randle. Consider his shooting numbers:

Randle pre-2020-21 mid-range: 32.1%
Randle 2020-21 mid-range: 46.2%

Randle pre-2020-21 3PT: 29.5%
Randle 2020-21 3PT: 41.6%

Randle pre-2020-21 FT: 72.5%
Randle 2020-21 FT: 80.8%

Now, what seems likelier: Randle going from a bad shooter to an elite shooter overnight? Or Randle having an outlier season with no fans in the building, like several other players are having? There is very little reason to believe that Randle can keep shooting at this level over a sustained sample.

And there's very little reason to believe that the Knicks can continue holding opponents to the shooting numbers they have over a sustained sample. Opponents are shooting 32.9% on wide-open 3's against the Knicks this season. That's the lowest figure in the NBA. Remember, these are wide-open 3's, the kind defenses aren't contesting. This is shooting luck. It's already starting to turn. Across their past five games, that's up to 43.4%.

This matters because Randle and the offense aren't driving New York's winning. Their No. 3-ranked defense is. If it slips, suddenly Randle isn't the hero carrying the Knicks to respectably. He's the guy posting big numbers on an unspectacular team. This is the likeliest outcome.

Now, that doesn't mean that Randle hasn't improved! He has. He was genuinely one of the most toxic players in the NBA last season. His mindset has changed completely. He's a far more willing playmaker than he was last season. He's trying way harder on defense. His turnovers are far more justifiable given his role within the offense. He always had a somewhat rare skillset considering his mobility and ball-handling for his size. There was a far better player within him than we'd seen.

But this idea that he's suddenly New York's star now, or that he deserves a max or anything like it, is really overblown. Giving a player that sort of contract based on two hot months only to watch him regress to the mean is exactly the sort of mistake the old Knicks used to make. I hope that this front office is a bit more patient and makes Randle prove it.

Again, not gonna compare him to KP. That's just a different sort of medical conversation I'm not qualified to have. But people are getting really far ahead of themselves with this Randle stuff when there just isn't much evidence that it's sustainable.

The Knicks have a team option on Julius next year. They have plenty of time to evaluate him.

As for the teams defense any recent decline coninsides with the team losing it's best defender and % on open 3s does not account for how hard team's had to work to get the look and who is getting those open looks. The Knicks have been very good at slowing pace and taking away good looks from primary options. They are better then average here for reasons other than luck. Mitchell Robinson’s broken hand is definitely an issue though


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[cattusmaru]

I'm not going to comment on Porzingis. That's an entirely separate can of worms. There's no way of properly predicting his future.

I will, however, suggest that people are getting WAY too excited about Julius Randle. Consider his shooting numbers:

Randle pre-2020-21 mid-range: 32.1%
Randle 2020-21 mid-range: 46.2%

Randle pre-2020-21 3PT: 29.5%
Randle 2020-21 3PT: 41.6%

Randle pre-2020-21 FT: 72.5%
Randle 2020-21 FT: 80.8%

Now, what seems likelier: Randle going from a bad shooter to an elite shooter overnight? Or Randle having an outlier season with no fans in the building, like several other players are having? There is very little reason to believe that Randle can keep shooting at this level over a sustained sample.

And there's very little reason to believe that the Knicks can continue holding opponents to the shooting numbers they have over a sustained sample. Opponents are shooting 32.9% on wide-open 3's against the Knicks this season. That's the lowest figure in the NBA. Remember, these are wide-open 3's, the kind defenses aren't contesting. This is shooting luck. It's already starting to turn. Across their past five games, that's up to 43.4%.

This matters because Randle and the offense aren't driving New York's winning. Their No. 3-ranked defense is. If it slips, suddenly Randle isn't the hero carrying the Knicks to respectably. He's the guy posting big numbers on an unspectacular team. This is the likeliest outcome.

Now, that doesn't mean that Randle hasn't improved! He has. He was genuinely one of the most toxic players in the NBA last season. His mindset has changed completely. He's a far more willing playmaker than he was last season. He's trying way harder on defense. His turnovers are far more justifiable given his role within the offense. He always had a somewhat rare skillset considering his mobility and ball-handling for his size. There was a far better player within him than we'd seen.

But this idea that he's suddenly New York's star now, or that he deserves a max or anything like it, is really overblown. Giving a player that sort of contract based on two hot months only to watch him regress to the mean is exactly the sort of mistake the old Knicks used to make. I hope that this front office is a bit more patient and makes Randle prove it.

Again, not gonna compare him to KP. That's just a different sort of medical conversation I'm not qualified to have. But people are getting really far ahead of themselves with this Randle stuff when there just isn't much evidence that it's sustainable.

I agree this guy is toxic who only cares about a big contract over winning. Its why he demanded a trade instead of playing with Lebron. Randle's agent is will forced to the Knicks to not pick up the team option but to give his client a max contract cause he earn it yet he hasn't shown what he can do in the playoffs which is more important to me then just playing for a contract and then goof become a fat role player again like the other Curry they had. Knicks should already learn from the Joakim Noah big signing mistake and what to repeat it again?

What i would do is pick up his team option for next season and then trade him during the deadline trade for future picks for playoff needy teams. That would be the smartest decision the Knicks can do with this heartless bum who only show them empty stats thinking the Knicks is dumb like they always been

[cattusmaru]

Randle isn't he a free agent after the end of this season? If I'm the Knicks I look to lock him up long term and give Randle a max contract because his contract was only for 3 years at 63 million...I give him a max deal now if I'm New York especially now that he's balling out

If you are the Knicks you give that bum a max contract? Lol now I know you don't care about winning but just empty stats which is sad. I stated during the off-season to offer Jerami Grant a max contract right after the Nuggets playoffs as he played his heart out after he was giving more pt and responsibilities. That is much more imp to me as a fan then what he does in the regular season. After his new pay raise with Detroit, he start playing up to his contract instead of waiting for his contract year like ball hog Randle, why is that?

If I'm the Knicks i would try to trade Randle for Grant straight up salary wise and toss the Pistons a 2nd round pick that turn into a 1st if Randle don't resign with them but obviously they would only do that trade with some insurance Randle would resign. Giving him a max would do it which is what you state you do.

Grant is so much better than Randle it's not even funny. Just watch tonight's game as they put Grant on Randle, he will shut him down all game. I will try to watch this game and laugh as he tries to score on Grant.

https://youtu.be/RDe6W5NArtQ

Watch as Randle's agent tell the Knicks if they pick up his team option, he will not resign with the Knicks. Don't fall for it but pick up the team option and then trade him away at the next trade deadline!

[dhopisthename]

I'm not going to comment on Porzingis. That's an entirely separate can of worms. There's no way of properly predicting his future.

I will, however, suggest that people are getting WAY too excited about Julius Randle. Consider his shooting numbers:

Randle pre-2020-21 mid-range: 32.1%
Randle 2020-21 mid-range: 46.2%

Randle pre-2020-21 3PT: 29.5%
Randle 2020-21 3PT: 41.6%

Randle pre-2020-21 FT: 72.5%
Randle 2020-21 FT: 80.8%

Now, what seems likelier: Randle going from a bad shooter to an elite shooter overnight? Or Randle having an outlier season with no fans in the building, like several other players are having? There is very little reason to believe that Randle can keep shooting at this level over a sustained sample.

And there's very little reason to believe that the Knicks can continue holding opponents to the shooting numbers they have over a sustained sample. Opponents are shooting 32.9% on wide-open 3's against the Knicks this season. That's the lowest figure in the NBA. Remember, these are wide-open 3's, the kind defenses aren't contesting. This is shooting luck. It's already starting to turn. Across their past five games, that's up to 43.4%.

This matters because Randle and the offense aren't driving New York's winning. Their No. 3-ranked defense is. If it slips, suddenly Randle isn't the hero carrying the Knicks to respectably. He's the guy posting big numbers on an unspectacular team. This is the likeliest outcome.

Now, that doesn't mean that Randle hasn't improved! He has. He was genuinely one of the most toxic players in the NBA last season. His mindset has changed completely. He's a far more willing playmaker than he was last season. He's trying way harder on defense. His turnovers are far more justifiable given his role within the offense. He always had a somewhat rare skillset considering his mobility and ball-handling for his size. There was a far better player within him than we'd seen.

But this idea that he's suddenly New York's star now, or that he deserves a max or anything like it, is really overblown. Giving a player that sort of contract based on two hot months only to watch him regress to the mean is exactly the sort of mistake the old Knicks used to make. I hope that this front office is a bit more patient and makes Randle prove it.

Again, not gonna compare him to KP. That's just a different sort of medical conversation I'm not qualified to have. But people are getting really far ahead of themselves with this Randle stuff when there just isn't much evidence that it's sustainable.

yeah the 3pt one is probably one of the biggest ones. he shot 27.7% last year on 1 less attempt. to go from that to 42% has to be one of the largest jumps in NBA history given the volume.

[ewing]

yeah the 3pt one is probably one of the biggest ones. he shot 27.7% last year on 1 less attempt. to go from that to 42% has to be one of the largest jumps in NBA history given the volume.

He shot 34 the season before and apparently put in a ton of work in the off season. I think it's reasonable to assume he isnt a 40 or 27 shooter from 3 and will land somewhere in the middle


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