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  1. #1
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    What Would You Like Your Team to Do This Offseason?

    Season is over. Offseason will soon be upon us. What would you like to see your team do? Green agency, draft, trades, it's all on the table.


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  2. #2
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    Here's a post I did in our team forum that's probably more detailed than any of you care to read about the Patriots:

    https://overthecap.com/calculator/new-england-patriots/

    I used that link to get a general idea of spending power. One thing to note is that if you release a player, another takes his place in the list of your top 51 salaries against the cap. So if I say below that we save $6M by cutting someone, the net savings I add will be $5,440,000 since they use $660K as the replacement salary. So consider that in if you try to follow the math below. If we do the following:

    1) trade Gilmore
    2) release Marcus Cannon
    3) release Hightower (I've hear the might retire. Even if he does come back, can't be on that cap number)
    4) Release Edelman (I think he's toast.)
    5) Release Beau Allen, Matt LaCosse, Dan Vitale, Brandon Bolden (Not huge savings, but all feel expendable.)

    That leaves us with $86,452,228 to spend. This includes the cap space we're rolling over too (it's factored into the projected cap number - you scroll through and it's different for each team due to that adjustment).

    Another thing to look at is the numbers beyond this year. Notice how the cap space in future years makes a huge jump because revenue is expected to go back up with vaccinations. We have basically nothing committed. We have lots of flexibility to structure deals to push out cap hits into the future. I know it's not a tactic we like to employ, but the covid related decline this year followed by an expected jump back up is a unique scenario. Combined with our overall lack of commitments we're positioned to take advantage.

    So on to some moved we could make. Especially if we're trading Gilmore (I'd expect a 2nd rounder back), you have to tender JC Jackson as a 1st rounder. That's just a no brainer move. On that calculator above that drops us down to $82,239,228 left to spend.

    Jumping back a paragraph, I mentioned kicking the can down the line SOMEWHAT. I see an opportunity to do that with Devin McCourty. If we restructure his salary into signing bonus, that opens up $5,193,750 of cap. Our total is now $88,182,978.

    Another tough cut, that I left out per above is Adrian Phillips because it took some thought. Dugger is the future and probably the present at SS. Chung is coming back and his deal is structured that we don't save cap. Releasing Phillips opens up $3M. He'd be awesome to keep as a 4th safety, but I think it's just too much for that role. That $3M can be reallocated. New total is $90,522,978.

    One more not talked above move is going to be Shaq Mason for me. He's a good player, but Thuney is better. If we trade Mason and push off some of the dead money, we can save $6,812,500. If we allocate that money towards keeping Thuney, then Onwenu can play RG. The fact Thuney can play LT or C in a pinch vs a pure guard like Mason makes building the depth back easier as well. This move brings our available cap space up to $96,675,478.

    That's a loooooooooooooot of cap space. Room to pursue looooooots of talent upgrades. Here's a PFF list of FAs and some price estimates: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-fr...00-free-agents

    Obviously we're going to hear a lot about the QB position. But hear me out on this one. With Cam, we were competitive in pretty much every game this year despite a void of talent all over on both sides of the ball. Consider the options that have been tossed around. Stafford is off the board. Watson would obviously be tremendous, but it's likely we'd get outbid. Jimmy G is beloved here I know, but trading for him comes with a cap charge of $24M and he really hasn't been good in SF. I'd truly rather run it back with Cam on another cheap deal and actually put talent around him than go get a QB who I still don't think is very good and put less talent around him because he's much more expensive. This site predicts 1 year, $5M for Cam. If we gave him that deal it would only reduce our cap by $4,440,000 down to $92,335,478. Just roll with me here for a minute.

    I'm going to use price estimates from that list. Deals will normally be backloaded so the year 1 cap hit will actually be less than the average value in most cases. I'll go case by case on that.

    Let's start with our own guys outside of Cam. David Andrews is on that list at $6M/year. Let's say it's slightly backloaded so his year 1 cap hit is $5.25M. Again factoring in the $660K player he takes the place of, that reduced cap to $87,745,478.

    I mentioned above I wanted to keep Thuney, hence the Mason move. They have him at $14.25M in average value. Assuming some backloading, let's say that his cap number for this year would be $12M. That reduces our cap space down to $76,405,478.

    Neither Lawrence Guy nor Adam Butler are on that list, but those are two front 7 players I'd like to retain. I'll use a $4M projection for Guy's 2020 cap as he's getting up there in age and not anything special, just solid. Butler has some pass rushing upside, so I'll go a little higher to $5M. That nets out to $68,725,478.

    Jason McCourty isn't on the list either and they talk about how there are tons of CB options. I also think he'd probably take less to play with his brother. So I'll use $3M estimate. That brings us down to $66,385,478.

    With Mason gone and Cannon cut, there's room for Eluemunor to come back. He looked solid enough at RT to get by with. I'll project $4M for him, which brings us down to $63,045,478.

    One area we obviously need to improve is TE. We know BB loves Hunter Henry from his press conference this year. That list has him at 4 years, $48M. If we use that $12M AAV and adjust down to a $10.5M year 1 cap hit, then we have $53,205,478 to spend.

    One are of struggle we don't talk about enough was the struggle vs the run. I think we need to prioritize big bodes up front to help there. They have Dalvin Tomlinson as a run stuffing nose tackle for $13.125M average value. We really need to target a stud there. I'll adjust that AAV down to $11M for the year 1 cap hit. That would leave us with $42,865,478 to spend.

    We could also use a thumper at ILB. We love to use lots of DBs, but there's room for a thumper too. They have Denzel Perryman at $6.5M AAV. I'll adjust to a $5.75M year 1 cap hit, so if we got him for that now it's $37,775,478 to spend.

    One guy who intrigues me is Leonard Floyd. He's not a pure sack artist, but he's capable of dropping in coverage and he plays the run. I just think that's a good compliment to Uche/Winovich on the edge who each are more specialist types. Big improvement over Deatrich Wise who was that every down kind of role for us last year. They have Floyd at $13.33M. If we adjust to a $12M year 1 cap hit, we're down to $27,435,478 left.

    I'm going to take a chance on Curtis Samuel as a gadget receiver. He can bring some explosion plays to the offense as we go year 2 in the the more RPO, gadget style. They've got him at $8.33M AAV. I'm going to leave as is since I wonderer if receivers might be a little reluctant to sign here over other places for same money. So cap space down to $19,762,145.

    I'm going to go back to the defensive side of the ball now. We were using Adrian Phillips as a linebacker for most of 2020. The idea was to get coverage. It makes sense, but it'd work even better if it was a real coverage linebacker doing it. Enter Matt Milano. He doesn't have the typical size we go for at LB, but game is changing. He's someone who can cover and rush. He isn't the best run defender, but I've added 3 plus defenders for that already and the baseline is a safety playing linebacker so it's not like he's a downgrade. They have him at $11.25M AAV, and I'll hold steady at that to draw him back to Boston where he went to college from the upswing Bills. Down to $9,172,145 left to spend.

    Lastly I'll fill in with some depth. Malik Hooker has had injury issues but would be awesome in the Duron Harmon backup FS role that we never really filled. They have him at 1 year $2M. I have us dealing Gilmore... Jackson/McCourty/Jones is still solid at CB but Gareon Conley could be an upside play as a man coverage CB. They have him at $2.5M. Those moves combined leave us with $5,992,145.

    That gets us down to the probably just signing picks and filling out the roster with minimum guys. We'd go into this draft with our one 1st, our own 2nd and presumably another for Gilmore, a compensatory third for Brady, our own 4th and two more compensatory 4ths for Collins/Van Noy. Maybe Mason could return a 4th as well in the trade I forecasted? But point is, we'd have more draft capital too.

    If you just go position by position...

    I left Cam at QB. But now he has more time in the offense and a legit TE plus one more playmaker at WR.
    The RB position I left James White go because on a power running team and they like JJ Taylor. Harris/Michel should be a nice power running tandem.
    WR still needs an outside, down the numbers threat. Samuel is a gadget playmaker type and Meyers is a solid inside/out possession guy. But hey, Rome wasn't built in a day. It's also somewhat mitigated by an actual TE threat. Definitely need to look to the draft here.
    At TE we now have Henry as a legit option as I mentioned so Asiasi/Keene can fight for reduced roles vs main ones.
    The OL returns 5 guys who played well in Wynn/Thuney/Andrews/Onwenu/Elmenuer. Still need to add depth in the draft or with low cost FA signings and definitely be looking for a RT to hopefully grab that spot in time.
    Interior DL should be much more stout with Tomlinson. A run stuffer will go a long way for us, which has really been a huge weakness for 2 years now. I'd still be looking for another guy in the draft, but we have a good start.
    On the edge, Floyd should be a good stabilizing player. Uche/Winovich will be asked to play more 3 down roles, but having a proven guy in that role lets them do it to somewhat of a lesser degree. I think Jennings is best in this spot too so he can hopefully grow into a John Simon role.
    At LB, Perryman is a thumper to help the run D and Millano is a guy we can play on 3 downs thanks to the improved run coverage up front. We were terrible here in 2020 with so many young guys and now they can play more appropriate depth roles.
    We're definitely worse at CB without Gilmore. Hope would be that Joejuan Williams can play somewhat of a role. Jackson struggled as a #1 when called upon, but a true lockdown CB really is a luxury. We should have a better pass rush with front 7 additions, even those that are for the run which would let us be able to plat some specialists more). That helps CBs. Jon Jones is still solid in the slot and J McCourty continues to hang on. Definitely a spot you'd be looking for high upside youth int he draft though.
    At safety, you hope Dugger blossoms and Chung comes back solid. Hooker would be nice depth if healthy. McCourty is still solid.
    On special teams, I went cheap. I think Folk will get paid by a contender. We have two kickers not he practice squad. Maybe it's an issue, but I feel like a team not seriously expecting a Super Bowl still doesn't need to splurge on an old kicker. I didn't re-sign Justin Bethel because I expect someone to sign him for a STs ace price, and we have Slater. I know BB's history, but I'm sorry, a team devoid of talent on offense and defense needs to spend it there.


    Still not a perfect team. I think we'd be better but not great throwing the ball with a more experienced Cam and a couple more solid players. The STs might take a step back without as much allocated to it. I think the secondary would fall back without Gilmore, but the front 7 would be MUCH better. I think the power running game should be in tact as something we can lean on and now we'd have a defense to compliment it better.

    Ultimately, not a full fix. But I think it lays good foundational improvement. With a strong draft class, which no matter what we do we really need to start getting back to, it sets us up well to make further improvements next year.

    I'll just clarify that if Watson is attainable then shift gear entirely to go get him. But short of that, I think another transitional year at QB with Cam and addressing the incredible lack of talent across the rest of the roster is a better bet than splurging on a QB who is better, but not a great answer himself, IMO.
    This focuses on the free agent/trade side of things. Haven't done my research into the drafts. I'll throw out though that I'd love if NE landed Micah Parsons at LB with a move up from #15.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  3. #3
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    Fix the O line. Been saying this for at least 4 or 5 years it seems like.

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Here's a post I did in our team forum that's probably more detailed than any of you care to read about the Patriots:



    This focuses on the free agent/trade side of things. Haven't done my research into the drafts. I'll throw out though that I'd love if NE landed Micah Parsons at LB with a move up from #15.
    2 things, i doubt $5,992,145 is enough to sign they hypothetical 11 draft picks and also, what cap number were you working off of?

  5. #5
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    Draft OL and pass rush. That Muhammad guy on the Colts who is a UFA seemed good. Maybe also a DB or S to give White some help.
    Dak: 17,634 @ 66.0%, 7.7 per att, 106+24 TD, 40 INT+34 FMB, 97.3 Rate
    Wentz: 16,811 @ 62.7%, 6.7 per att, 113+8 TD, 50 INT+58 FMB, 89.2 Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    I'll eat a shoe if BB is still coaching in 5 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Sticking to traditions:

    IF Wentz is a Philadelphia Eagle in 2021, he will be the starter. If not, bye bye PSD, I'll leave.
    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by NBA all the way View Post
    2 things, i doubt $5,992,145 is enough to sign they hypothetical 11 draft picks and also, what cap number were you working off of?
    Signing draft classes doesn't take as much as just the raw numbers of what each makes. Your cap space in the offseason is determined by the top 51 players on your roster. When you sign a 52nd player he just places one of the top 51. Most teams are at 70-80 players before the draft and UDFA to fill out their 90 man training camp roster.

    Rookies usually sign for minimum salaries in year 1 so they don't replace anyone in the top 51 players. It's just their signing bonus proration that gets added to the cap.

    I used the cap projections in the over the cap link in my post. I think they're using a $175M estimate and then the Pats have like $26M of unused space to carry over. So their adjusted cap will be a little over $200M. The $175M is in line with what I've heard from other sources.


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  7. #7
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    Keep 11.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Keep 11.
    Do you think it could work out for him in PHI at this point? Even putting aside any discussion of him as a player on the field, I feel like the situation has probably just reached the point of no return. I think he needs a fresh start somewhere else. The Wentz-PHI relationship just seems too toxic at this point, IMO.


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  9. #9
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    Trade 11.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Do you think it could work out for him in PHI at this point? Even putting aside any discussion of him as a player on the field, I feel like the situation has probably just reached the point of no return. I think he needs a fresh start somewhere else. The Wentz-PHI relationship just seems too toxic at this point, IMO.
    You asked what Id like them to do.

    Its sad it reached this point.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    You asked what Id like them to do.

    Its sad it reached this point.
    I think winning with his backup kind of created a toxic situation. It just created that constant scapegoat target on his back, unfairly IMO.

    The big picture issue I see in PHI is that your GM just hasn't done a good job. He had great success to get that SB win, did a tremendous job. But we've seen spurts of success from many GM/organizations but few can maintain it. In part because few get the opportunity to - they get canned when the bad stretches hit. Remains to be seen in the coming years if the good stretch was the fluke or if he's just in a temporary slump now. We take for granted how hard it is to build great teams year after year. Most of the time you're selling out for a few years long window then need to reset.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  12. #12
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    packers... Linebackers/special teams/Kevin king shot to the moon and if the browns arent asking for much for OBJ id be all over it... Put him across from adams with rodgers... Gotta get over this ******** about always going for the shiney clean players. Look at the patriots every year and then tampa. Winning should be all that matters

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    I think winning with his backup kind of created a toxic situation.
    His reaction to getting benched for poor performance created a toxic situation. News of him being unhappy and wanting out of Philly hit just after Hurts' big game against the Cardinals. I think Doug Pederson was fully aware of Wentz's fragile ego, hence he never got publicly criticized and it took so long for the benching to happen.

  14. #14
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    Purge the roster of crappy veterans and bad draft picks, I don't care if they area year or two old. Guys like Jahlani Tavai and Will Harris were/are awful draft picks and probably shouldn't waste roster spots on them. Yes, I get they are on cheap contracts but if they are that bad there has to be cheap veterans/UDFA's provide the same level of negative production at minimum, and provide more upside theoretically. If you can trade any of them for picks, do it.

    I'd also try to trade Goff, never wanted him anyway and only accept him for the extra first, but that likely is not possible. Please focus on creating a modern NFL offense and putting modern pieces in place for the future QB. Goff is not that.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by LionsFan..LOL View Post
    Purge the roster of crappy veterans and bad draft picks, I don't care if they area year or two old. Guys like Jahlani Tavai and Will Harris were/are awful draft picks and probably shouldn't waste roster spots on them. Yes, I get they are on cheap contracts but if they are that bad there has to be cheap veterans/UDFA's provide the same level of negative production at minimum, and provide more upside theoretically. If you can trade any of them for picks, do it.

    I'd also try to trade Goff, never wanted him anyway and only accept him for the extra first, but that likely is not possible. Please focus on creating a modern NFL offense and putting modern pieces in place for the future QB. Goff is not that.
    or trade goff for wentz : )

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