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  1. #1
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    2021 Quarterbacks

    There are 9 stud quarterbacks out there that are coveted by everbody:

    Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City
    Aaron Rogers - Green Bay
    Tom Brady - Tampa Bay
    Russell Wilson - Seattle
    Deshawn Watson - Houston

    Joe Burrow - Cincinnati
    Justin Herbert - LA Chargers
    Kyler Murray - Arizona

    Andrew Luck - Indianapolis retired

    There are 9 more out there that are "passable" - teams feel they have a shot with them and aren't looking to move them:
    Josh Allen - Buffalo
    Matthew Stafford - LA Rams
    Kirk Cousins - Minnesota
    Matt Ryan - Atlanta
    Derek Carr - Las Vegas
    Baker Mayfield - Cleveland
    Lamar Jackson - Baltimore
    Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee
    Dak Prescott - Dallas

    Two of the above appear to be in play for 2021 - Watson and Prescott with rumors swirling about a few of the others - Rogers, Ryan and Carr mostly

    There are five QB prospects in the draft this year.
    Trevor Lawrence is considered a stud and will go to Jacksonville
    The other four are overrated because of the recent success of Murray, Burrow and Herbert. These three are unicorns and those who think that Zach Wilson, Josh Fields, Trey Lance or Mac Jones are automatically going to turn into one of those unicorns are in for a rude awakening.

    The rest of the teams, 14 of them, have QB's that have no chance at a super bowl next year and won't be getting one thru the draft. This makes for a very interesting off season with the five top guys who are the subjects of all the rumors

    14 Teams who have QBs that don't make the cut:
    New England - Cam Newton
    Jets - Sam Darnold (the door isn't completely closed on him)
    Miami - Tua Tagovailoa (the door isn't completely closed on him either)
    Indianapolis - Jacoby Brissett
    Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger
    Denver - Drew Lock
    Giants - Daniel Jones (the door isn't completely closed on him)
    Washington - Taylor Heinicke or Alex Smith
    Philadelphia - Carson Wentz (the door isn't completely closed on him)
    Chicago - Mitch Trubisky
    Detroit - Jared Goff
    Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater
    New Orleans - Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill
    San Francisco - Jimmy Garoppolo (the door isn't completely closed on him)

    Who goes where this offseason?

  2. #2
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    Carson Wentz rumored to be close to traded.....Indy is the presumed spot
    What if it's New Orleans that pulls off that trade?

    I doubt Cam remains in Boston, I'm betting Alex Smith retires (what else needs proving?), Teddy is shaky in Carolina.......there's a LOT of shuffling that could happen. In your group of 14, ONLY Goff and Jones are likely NOT in play to not be starters for the teams they're currently on....even Ben could be cut (guess Goff could be traded again). From your 2nd group, Ryan, Carr, Mayfield, Cousins, and Prescott have at least had rumors of being elsewhere....and of course Watson, even Rodgers. While I doubt it, Brady could retire and we're assuming Brees is.

    I don't remember EVER going into an offseason with MORE teams/QBs in flux.
    Round and round they go, where they stop nobody knows.
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  3. #3
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    I'm not sure 2 of the 4 QBs who have been in the last two SBs can be classified as "no chance at a super bowl".

  4. #4
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    Watson The First Domino

    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Carson Wentz rumored to be close to traded.....Indy is the presumed spot
    What if it's New Orleans that pulls off that trade?

    I doubt Cam remains in Boston, I'm betting Alex Smith retires (what else needs proving?), Teddy is shaky in Carolina.......there's a LOT of shuffling that could happen. In your group of 14, ONLY Goff and Jones are likely NOT in play to not be starters for the teams they're currently on....even Ben could be cut (guess Goff could be traded again). From your 2nd group, Ryan, Carr, Mayfield, Cousins, and Prescott have at least had rumors of being elsewhere....and of course Watson, even Rodgers. While I doubt it, Brady could retire and we're assuming Brees is.

    I don't remember EVER going into an offseason with MORE teams/QBs in flux.
    Round and round they go, where they stop nobody knows.
    I thought last year was nuts with Brady, Bridgewater, Newton, Winston and Rivers all moving, but that was literally nothing compared to what's doing this offseason. And we already had one huge trade with Stafford and Goff changing teams.

    I think people are seeing how Brady turned Tampa around, how there seems to be savants streaming out of college like Murray, Burrow and Herbert, plus Lawrence this year and teams are getting very dissatisfied with their QB situation. The final four had Mahomes, Brady, Rogers and Josh Allen. Last year Tannehill and Lamar Jackson came out of nowhere.

    I would say that teams will try for Watson first before any other big moves would be made. He's too much of a prize to not at least make a run at if you are not happy with your quarterback.

    The most likely destinations based on team need and the most likely desire by Watson to play for a team that's not a basket case are the Steelers, 49ers, Patriots, Dolphins, Colts, Broncos, Eagles, Saints, Cowboys and Bears.

    It would take a couple of starters, a quarterback and at least three first rounders plus another high pick or two to get it done, I would think. The question is, which organization has the chutzpah to make that big a move. Whatever they pay, Watson would probably be more than worth it.

    After that, the teams that lose out on Watson, do they realistically go after Rogers?

    There's a huge drop off after Rogers and Watson, but all of the teams mentioned above have to be looking pretty hard to upgrade.

  5. #5
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    Bold prediction: Justin Fields, NOT Trevor Lawrence, will go #1 overall
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  6. #6
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    Jets fans would be giddy

    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Bold prediction: Justin Fields, NOT Trevor Lawrence, will go #1 overall
    They've got the Ohio State connection in Jacksonville now.
    I'm not that impressed by Fields, but maybe the Jags are.

    I don't think that Lawrence is the generational stud everyone makes him out to be either.
    They were calling him The Second Coming in High School and I don't think people wanted to back off from those early bold predictions for Trevor. The Alabama game exposed a lot of his shortcomings. All that being said, he's still good.

    That being said, Jets fans would be thrilled to get Lawrence at number 2, altho' I'm not at all convinced Darnold can't be a very good quarterback in this league. The guy spent three years with no running attack, poor receivers, a swiss cheese offense line and one of the worst coaches in NFL history. He's only 23 and is the kind of guy you would love your daughter to marry. And he's a leader. It looks like the new Jets coach appreciates him a whole lot more than the average Jets fans. However, if Lawrence were available, they wouldn't pass on him and keep Darnold.

    I think people have gotten a real skewed outlook on quarterbacks this year when Burrow and Herbert went generational as rookies. The guys coming out now are more likely to look like Tua than those two. Tua still has a chance, but now if you don't tear it up right out of college, you're a bust.

    It's amazing how folks are giving up on decent QB's because Burrow and Herbert have spoiled them. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray have also had a lot of early success, altho' a big part of their success is because they are excellent runners. Jackson and Allen are Cam Newton 2.0, which isn't a bad thing since he was an MVP. But once their legs go, they are not accurate enough to be winning QB's in this league. With Murray, once his quickness goes, he's too small to make it in this league as more of a pocket passer.That being said, it will probably be several years before any of them starts going backwards physically, so enjoy.
    Last edited by ortforshort; 02-06-2021 at 12:33 PM.

  7. #7
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    Not convinced of Kyler Murray or Herbert as QB savants. I think the league will catch up to Kyler and he will be solid and borderline top 10. He's a little over rated right now. Herbert faded a bit down the stretch, we will see what Happens.

    I think Burrow is the real deal, even though Herbert looked like the better rookie during a larger stretch.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heediot View Post
    Not convinced of Kyler Murray or Herbert as QB savants. I think the league will catch up to Kyler and he will be solid and borderline top 10. He's a little over rated right now. Herbert faded a bit down the stretch, we will see what Happens.

    I think Burrow is the real deal, even though Herbert looked like the better rookie during a larger stretch.
    Herbert faded? Other than the whole team's clunker against the Patriots, I'm not seeing that. But, his first 16 game season after shorter college seasons, so some could be expected. We don't KNOW if Burrow would have had that given he didn't play an entire season. Savant may still be a stretch, but still showed the potential to be a top starter.
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Bold prediction: Justin Fields, NOT Trevor Lawrence, will go #1 overall
    Did your phone autocorrect 'bad' to 'bold'?

  10. #10
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    I don't think Fields will even be the 2nd quarterback taken. That will be Zach Wilson.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    Did your phone autocorrect 'bad' to 'bold'?
    nope, I just know the Jags penchant to muck things up
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    Herbert faded? Other than the whole team's clunker against the Patriots, I'm not seeing that. But, his first 16 game season after shorter college seasons, so some could be expected. We don't KNOW if Burrow would have had that given he didn't play an entire season. Savant may still be a stretch, but still showed the potential to be a top starter.
    Faded may be too far, but I think teams were catching on to his tendencies. We will see how he responds to more adjustments after teams have more film.

    That's always been my gripe with new/young qbs that have success right off the bat, they have to prove to me how they handle the oppositions adjustment and then the consistency will show itself a few years down the line with the a bigger sample.

    Wasn't convinced of Lamar, Baker to name a few in the past few years. Still not convinced about Baker, Lamar will be a pro bowl regular season guy but not sure how deep he can take a team in the loffs. Even Josh Allen I am not totally convinced about. I was more lenient on him vs others only because people were so quick to bash him, but I don't think hell have the same consistency as he has had this year throughout his career.

    A lot of these guys just end u being derek carr and on the higher end Matthew stafford types, which isn't the end of the world, but they are over hyped and have too much optimism on them early on.

    I just like Burrows feel, fearlessness and approach to the game. He has the physical tools and mental game imo to boot. Lets just hope cincy doesn't mess it u. Yeah the sample on him is small, but I got a good feeling about this dude based on 'it' factor and my instincts. I never thought Baker had the 'it' factor as many others did when he was coming out of college but I think Burrows factor is legit.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiteWolf View Post
    nope, I just know the Jags penchant to muck things up
    Urban Meyer tOSU connection?

    I think Urban took the gig knowing he had a chance to grow with Lawrence though.

  14. #14
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    Impatience

    Quote Originally Posted by Heediot View Post
    Faded may be too far, but I think teams were catching on to his tendencies. We will see how he responds to more adjustments after teams have more film.

    That's always been my gripe with new/young qbs that have success right off the bat, they have to prove to me how they handle the oppositions adjustment and then the consistency will show itself a few years down the line with the a bigger sample.

    Wasn't convinced of Lamar, Baker to name a few in the past few years. Still not convinced about Baker, Lamar will be a pro bowl regular season guy but not sure how deep he can take a team in the loffs. Even Josh Allen I am not totally convinced about. I was more lenient on him vs others only because people were so quick to bash him, but I don't think hell have the same consistency as he has had this year throughout his career.

    A lot of these guys just end u being derek carr and on the higher end Matthew stafford types, which isn't the end of the world, but they are over hyped and have too much optimism on them early on.

    I just like Burrows feel, fearlessness and approach to the game. He has the physical tools and mental game imo to boot. Lets just hope cincy doesn't mess it u. Yeah the sample on him is small, but I got a good feeling about this dude based on 'it' factor and my instincts. I never thought Baker had the 'it' factor as many others did when he was coming out of college but I think Burrows factor is legit.
    The success of these young guys over the past couple of years has definitely changed the QB market this year.

    If guys like Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Allen and Murray didn't have the success they've had, I think the Niners and the Rams would have been happy with Garoppolo and Goff. They paid them a bunch of money a couple of years ago and they're basically the same players now that they were then. Altho' maybe that's part of the problem as they're young and haven't improved.

    I think it definitely is the reason why Jets fans are so dissatisfied with Darnold and Miami fans with Tua. Tua has barely gotten his feet yet and Miami fans want to yank the plug. Darnold has had the worst situation any young QB has ever had over his first three years and is only 23, yet Jet fans want to get rid of him already.

    And then Brady takes a below .500 Tampa Bay team to the super bowl.

    Expectations are definitely a lot higher which will be a problem for this year's QB crop, particularly Lawrence, who have an impossibly high bar what with what Burrow and Herbert did last year.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by ortforshort View Post
    The success of these young guys over the past couple of years has definitely changed the QB market this year.

    If guys like Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Allen and Murray didn't have the success they've had, I think the Niners and the Rams would have been happy with Garoppolo and Goff. They paid them a bunch of money a couple of years ago and they're basically the same players now that they were then. Altho' maybe that's part of the problem as they're young and haven't improved.
    Goff and Jimmy G are the exact examples I am talking about when being over optimistic about (Carson Wentz could be added) young qbs and giving them a market setting contract or close to it. They believed in what they saw from them at a young and early stage and the truth revealed itself somewhat over time. That's why I would be cautious about being overly optimistic or over investing in some young qbs based off of potential and inconsistent samples. There will be buyers remorse.

    If GMs were smart they would take a look at some of these young bs plays with a grain of salt and not act to hastily with a recency bias. Dont get me wrong recent play factors in and so does potential, but its a dangerous game when the talent/support system around these guys slowly dissolve and they are exposed for being mediocre and not living up to the billing due to their contracts effecting the help that can be provided. GMs are setting the market with top 15 type bs with potential a good chunk of the time and it will hurt them down the line.

    I agree that these new bs come in and play well and decison makers get enamored, but history tells me these exces/coaches need to learn from the past. the Mahomes and Watsons are harder to find and deserve market setting contracts, but the Bakers and Goff types end up getting the same amount (or close) of loot when their time comes. The latter guys are more plentiful.

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