Offseason 2021

[IRNMN]

Pretty early on Cook and Kamara though too. Neither of those guys have actually played a snap of their extension yet either. Not expecting either to fall off a cliff, but it happens with RBs. Usually all it takes is an injury or two and they can go downhill fast. And Henry has played 1 year on his deal as well.

And to me that's the big worry. It's not year 1. It's years 3 and 4 where you get a Preston Smith situation and you're eating a fair amount of dead cap. I don't hate the tag for Jones and signing him to a deal with relatively low guarantees would be fine but any agent worth his pay knows to get those guarantees, especially for a spot like RB. So I've never really considered a short term or incentive laden deal a realistic option. Tag could make sense but I also wonder if that money couldn't be spent elsewhere though too.

But one thing I've always been hung up on is drafting Dillon as high as they did. To take a RB in the 2nd, you have to imagine he's going to be the heavy end of a timeshare especially a guy like Dillon who isn't a 185lb offensive weapon type. And you can't really resign Jones and give Dillon his reps. Even if you want to keep Jones on a lighter workload, you can't pay him $8 mill and not give him the larger end of the timeshare. Everything we've said seems to make it sound like we're open to bringing Jones back, but I'm just not sure I see a scenario where it makes sense.

I may be early on the deals for sure, but we will have to see, but if you look at all those deals for the most part after year two there is a buy-out. In today's NFL, a 4-year deal in reality can be a 2 year deal basically with the option for the next two. I think this is why Jones is pretty adamant about getting guarantees.

In terms of splitting the load between Dillon, we were a pretty balanced look between Jones and Jamaal last season Jones getting 52% of the snaps, Jamaal 40%, but it's likely going to be a lot closer to 52-48 if it's Jones/Dillon because I'm not sure the #3 would be much more than a specialist and most likely a body who is there for emergencies. I'm not sure how they would work the balance out they'd have to work that all out.

I'd also agree I'm not sure how adamant they are about keeping him either. I think the tag has an even greater value then. I've heard tag-and-trade rumors as well. I think the tag could really be the idea of getting guaranteed compensation for Jones. Last year Matt Breida landed the 49ers a 5th round pick last year on trade. It's hard to gauge where he would fall because there is really no recent precedent. Jones is much better than Breida and doesn't come with the injury concerns. Jay Ajayi landed a 4th, and I would also argue Jones is better. If you can land a 3rd or maybe a 4th and a few other later round picks you probably have to consider it as the comp pick return will at best be a 3rd, but you now have the guarantee because a comp pick could be a 4th. The NFL is weird too, maybe they luck out and get the "Trent Richardson haul" highly doubtful, but anything of 3rd round value or higher I would argue make a tag-and-trade worth it. You ensure Jones doesn't end up with a rival, get instant comp, and Jones gets his money.

[crewfan13]

True but you also don't necessarily want to have to execute the out either. Dead cap isn't a huge, huge deal, but you'd prefer to not have to eat it either. And that's where I'm not sure cutting a guy after 2 years and eating $6 mill can end up being considered a good deal either.

But if you can get a 4 in a tag and trade, especially if it's a bad team like the Jets, id do that for sure too. Best case scenario is a late 3rd next year in the comp picks. If you can guarantee me an early 4th this year, that basically just as good.

For what it's worth, for RB rushes plus targets, I got Jones at 56%, Williams at 33% and Dillon/dexter at 11%. I took all of ervin's rushes out aince most of those came on the end around play.

All the RBs missed time, but if we just look at games both Jones and Williams played in, it's Jones at 65%, Williams at 31% and Dillon at 4%. Obviously Dillon missed a lot of time mid season due to Covid, but it didnt feel right to take his missed starts out since he didn't touch the ball much at all. I think that 60-65% range is where we want to be with our too RB for touches. If Dillon is the top dog, that number might be slightly lower as there could be some shootout style games where his touches get minimized, but I think that's a reasonable target. Spending a 2nd rounder on a guy who's going to be the 35% range probably doesn't make sense. Likewise, spending $8 mill or more on Jones and having him drop to a 50% share guy most likely isn't an efficient usage of money, particularly if money is tight.

[IRNMN]

Assuming they do officially move on from Jones in whatever manner that will be. I wouldn't be shocked to see them give Dillon 60% of the carries. I would almost look at the use of Derrick Henry as the closest parallel usage. Henry over the past couple of seasons has averaged in the 60-70% of the Titans carries. Not trying to use too much of the Henry comparison here, but Dillon and his build is really the style you can look to carry the workload.

I think a lot of the Jones thing right now is they've made their offer and won't budge. If he returns, that's fine, if he doesn't that's fine too. I think the tag talk is really mostly PR, but I think getting that guaranteed compensation and somewhat controlling where he is sent really has to be appealing IMO. Getting a 3rd or an early 4th allows us a pick this season to get an adequate #2 without dipping into our existing draft pick stock. I'm looking at a team like Miami with an already known interest as a compelling option out the gate they've got the picks to complete the move and it could be a win-win for all parties.

[IRNMN]

I'm looking at the corner market. I was wondering what people's thoughts on Richard Sherman would be. I'm looking at potential suitors, and I think there is still a bit of a connection between Gray and Sherman. Sherman may not be the guy he once was but still has enough game to be a really nice option. Sherman would bring a little bit of fire to the defense and really would fit in with much of the "D-Train". What he's lost in speed he's gained in knowledge and instinct. 2 years 12-14 mil type deal would give them some time to develop the next in line. Continue to work on guys like Hollman for example. Add in the draft pick you likely now have Alexander-Sherman-high draft pick-Sullivan-Hollman really wouldn't be too bad of a group to enter into next season with. I've seen his name tossed out there, but I think he would be a solid add both from a skill and a leadership standpoint. I know some are against the move, but I frankly don't see too much downside to adding Sherman while developing the next in line.

[bigfishguy85]

If we could get Sherman for that price, I’d be all for it

[crewfan13]

I'm looking at the corner market. I was wondering what people's thoughts on Richard Sherman would be. I'm looking at potential suitors, and I think there is still a bit of a connection between Gray and Sherman. Sherman may not be the guy he once was but still has enough game to be a really nice option. Sherman would bring a little bit of fire to the defense and really would fit in with much of the "D-Train". What he's lost in speed he's gained in knowledge and instinct. 2 years 12-14 mil type deal would give them some time to develop the next in line. Continue to work on guys like Hollman for example. Add in the draft pick you likely now have Alexander-Sherman-high draft pick-Sullivan-Hollman really wouldn't be too bad of a group to enter into next season with. I've seen his name tossed out there, but I think he would be a solid add both from a skill and a leadership standpoint. I know some are against the move, but I frankly don't see too much downside to adding Sherman while developing the next in line.

I'd be good with Sherman. We played quite a bit of zone last year anyways which fits Sherman well. I'd still draft a guy early, like you said, but it would be nice to not have to rely on a rookie to start at corner instantly.

That being said, I wouldn't be shocked if we look at the released vet market a but more than the true UFA market since we're likely losing guys that could net high comp picks. That shouldnt be the only consideration, but I think it matters. But that's another reason a tag and trade could make sense. If we're active in free agency and sign true UFA's, we may not get any picks for our guys if we sing too many guys.

That being said, I wonder if someone like Chidobe Awuzie makes sense. He is a zone corner and could fit our scheme. He's a bit more expensive than a guy like Sherman most likely, but he could also be multi year starter and allow us to go a different direction in the draft.

[IRNMN]

That being said, I wouldn't be shocked if we look at the released vet market a but more than the true UFA market since we're likely losing guys that could net high comp picks. That shouldnt be the only consideration, but I think it matters. But that's another reason a tag and trade could make sense. If we're active in free agency and sign true UFA's, we may not get any picks for our guys if we sing too many guys.

That being said, I wonder if someone like Chidobe Awuzie makes sense. He is a zone corner and could fit our scheme. He's a bit more expensive than a guy like Sherman most likely, but he could also be multi year starter and allow us to go a different direction in the draft.

The cut candidate pool may be interesting one name I keep seeing who could be cut is Kyle Fuller. We had interest a few years back and I don't think they would hesitate to add him. He may not be what he was a few years ago, but still a very solid player. If he is cut loose I would think we would be one of the quicker candidates to sign him. We would get a quality corner and not risk losing in the comp pick calculations. We will likely get comp picks for Linsley and a lower one for Williams, and it will be seen what occurs with Jones, but if not tagged likely another pick there. Depends on what happens with King may net us a low comp pick as well.

Awuzie could be interesting he can be up and down but has shown potential. Another name I thought about out there was Troy Hill, I'm not sure what connection he would have to Barry being the assistant head coach in LA. Hill would probably cost in the same ballpark as Awuzie but maybe more consistent. Looking at the free-agent class I'm also looking at Brian Poole, he's been buried with the NYJ, but is actually an excellent corner, Poole may not demand as much as some of the bigger names, but could really be a home run.

[crewfan13]

The cut candidate pool may be interesting one name I keep seeing who could be cut is Kyle Fuller. We had interest a few years back and I don't think they would hesitate to add him. He may not be what he was a few years ago, but still a very solid player. If he is cut loose I would think we would be one of the quicker candidates to sign him. We would get a quality corner and not risk losing in the comp pick calculations. We will likely get comp picks for Linsley and a lower one for Williams, and it will be seen what occurs with Jones, but if not tagged likely another pick there. Depends on what happens with King may net us a low comp pick as well.

Awuzie could be interesting he can be up and down but has shown potential. Another name I thought about out there was Troy Hill, I'm not sure what connection he would have to Barry being the assistant head coach in LA. Hill would probably cost in the same ballpark as Awuzie but maybe more consistent. Looking at the free-agent class I'm also looking at Brian Poole, he's been buried with the NYJ, but is actually an excellent corner, Poole may not demand as much as some of the bigger names, but could really be a home run.

Comp picks can be offset by signing FAs is my point with the cut pool. So if we sign someone like Sherman for $7 mill a year, he will very likely offset one of Jones or Linsley. That's part of the reason Watt made a ton of sense to me. He would have been expensivr but he would have mostly been your one big splash, which almost guarantees you don't offset Linsley and Jones.

Like I said, the comp pick formula shouldnt be out only concern. If it's between signing a true Ufa like Sherman vs no one take Sherman over the comp pick. But if it's Sherman vs someone who was released and doesn't count vs the comp pick formula, then it's basically Sherman vs the other guy plus a 4th rounder. That's not nothing. So if fuller does get released, I would think we would absolutely be interested.

[crewfan13]

I'm terrible at predicting contracts and there's so many ways to move around money that it's hard to actually predict what teams can do with cap space. But for me, a sample off-season could end up being something like let Linsley, Jones and King walk. Depending on cap and ask, I'd be okay bringing Jamaal back for cheap. But if he isn't cheap, let him walk too. If you can tag and trade Jones then fine, but generally speaking let all those guys leave. Even though Gute has alluded to Preston not being cut, I still think we should. We can free up $8 mill this year or $12 if we post June 1st him. I'd cut Lowry as well, but that almost has to be a given. The only way he isn't cut is if he takes a pretty big pay cut. May need to cut Funchess right away too, depending on how tight we get.

But then I'd look to sign one of the cut corners. Right now, maybe that's AJ Bouye, who could be somewhat affordable but has a 2 game suspension to serve. If Fuller or Haden or Butler get cut, then there's some additional options too. Look to see if Jurrell Casey can be had for a short term, incentive laden deal. Try to bring in someone like a Kyler Fackerall, who could be a pretty cheap 3rd edge guy. See if Veldheer or Wagner would come back near the vet minimum to provide Bak insurance early in the year.

Like I said, depending how cap shakes out at that point, consider bringing back Williams or finding another veteran RB who can be had for near the minimum. Possibly bring back a guy like Lane Taylor on a minimum deal too, but that depends on how the non-Runyan rookies from last year look. As some additional moves.

With that type of off-season, I think you're somewhat freed up to not chase needs in the draft. You'll still probably want to go OT somewhat early. Depending what route you go at CB, you may or may not need to grab one early. If you get a younger-ish guy like a fuller, you may not need to grab one. If it's a Sherman type, you may still need one early. That being said, bringing in a vet still allows your new DC to get one last look at Josh Jackson if you don't draft a guy. But if we can go into the draft without having any or many immediate needs, it can really free us up to grab talent for the future. And it doesn't lock us into a spot where we pass up on say an edge rusher cuz we need a CB in the first. Or it allows us to take an offensive weapon type of guy in the 2nd. Or since we have a ton of picks, allows us to move around a ton and go get guys we love. Like maybe a Rondale Moore starts falling into the mid 2nd and we would love to have that type of guy, if our holes are mostly filled, we can say F it and throw a couple 4ths together and go get him.