Offseason 2021

[crewfan13]

Watt signed with Arizona for 2/$31. Would have been a nice get but I completely understand why we wouldn't go that high. I absolutely didn't expect him to get that much, especially since $23 mill is guaranteed. That's a pretty substantial sum for a guy who's turning 32 in a few weeks and has a substantial injury history.

Watt was still effective last year. His 4 and 5 sack totals the last two years dotn fully reflect his value. According to his qb hit rate, he should have had slightly more sacks each year. Subsequently, his 16 sack performance from 3 years back was likely overstated by the same metric. Either way in a decent defense, I think Watt is still a good player, probably a 7-10 sack guy over 16 games. I think he may be capable of popping off and going a bit higher but that 10 sacks over 16 games type of guy is his realistic upside, but that assumes he isn't going to continue to fall off with age.

At $15 mill a year for 2 years, I think best case scenario is he lives up to that contract. I think it's highly unlikely hell outplay the contract. And there's significant downside with his injury history and his age that he doesnt live up to the deal. Don't think Arizona is dumb for doing it or anything, but that would have been a risky move for us this off-season. I think I'd rather focus in possibly grabbing a few decent guys for that type of money if we're able to free it up.

[IRNMN]

Arizona was such a shocker for me. If I was the Packers I likely would have been only offering one year, to begin with. I agree it's a huge deal, and I think the Packers were pretty wise not paying that much. Arizona has an interesting front with Watt and Chandler Jones if Watt remains healthy. At the same time, I wonder if they just swapped production from current Reddick to current Watt. I'm wondering if this has bearing on them bringing back Patrick Peterson they only had $11 mil in the cap so they're going to need to shift some money. They've got a handful of defensive players still needing deals including Patrick Peterson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Kevin Peterson and Johnathan Joseph, Hasson Reddick, Markus Golden, and De’Vondre Campbell. I would be interested in giving Peterson a look potentially and then draft another CB high. Peterson still a quality player may be ring chasing. I think the very worst case you have a quality vet on the field as your #3.

[IRNMN]

A few notes on the coaching staff today they announced the finalization of the coachin

The Green Bay Packers have promoted Jerry Gray to defensive backs/passing game coordinator, Adam Stenavich to offensive line/run game coordinator, Rayna Stewart to assistant special teams coach and Connor Lewis to special teams assistant/game management specialist while also hiring John Dunn as a senior analyst, Justin Hood as a defensive quality control coach, Ryan Mahaffey as an offensive quality control coach and Tim Zetts as an offensive quality control coach. Head Coach Matt LaFleur made the announcements on Monday.

Offensive Coaching Staff

Nathaniel Hackett – Offensive Coordinator
Luke Getsy – Quarterbacks/Passing Game Coordinator
Adam Stenavich – Offensive Line/Run Game Coordinator
Justin Outten – Tight Ends
Ben Sirmans – Running Backs
Jason Vrable – Wide Receivers
Luke Butkus – Assistant Offensive Line
Ryan Mahaffey – Offensive Quality Control
Tim Zetts – Offensive Quality Control
Ruvell Martin – Coaching Assistant (Minority Fellowship)

Defensive Coaching Staff

Joe Barry – Defensive Coordinator
Jerry Gray – Defensive Backs/Passing Game Coordinator
Jerry Montgomery – Defensive Line
Kirk Olivadotti – Inside Linebackers
Mike Smith – Outside Linebackers
Ryan Downard – Assistant Defensive Backs
John Dunn – Senior Analyst
Wendel Davis – Defensive Quality Control
Justin Hood – Defensive Quality Control

Special Teams Coaching Staff


Maurice Drayton – Special Teams Coordinator
Rayna Stewart – Assistant Special Teams
Connor Lewis – Special Teams Assistant/Game Management Specialist

Strength and Conditioning Staff

Chris Gizzi – Strength & Conditioning Coordinator
Thadeus Jackson – Strength & Conditioning Assistant
Mark Lovat – Strength & Conditioning Assistant
Grant Thorne – Strength & Conditioning Assistant

So there will not be any shake-up for the position coaches, Jerry Gray gets a promotion to keep him around. Also a promotion for Stenavich who has been pretty impressive to date. A few ST coach hires and some smaller quality control roles were filled. But really good to see them keep the position coaches especially Gray and Smith on the defensive side of the ball.

[IRNMN]

Is it weird there was never a Joe Barry introductory press conference? No chance to hear from him about his plans or anything. MLF never even talked after the hire.

I guess this sorta counts: Packers announce Matt LaFleur, Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry and Special Teams Coordinator Maurice Drayton will be speak with the media tomorrow starting at 12:45 est. Brian Gutekunst will then speak at 3pm est.

[More-Than-Most]

Watt signed with Arizona for 2/$31. Would have been a nice get but I completely understand why we wouldn't go that high. I absolutely didn't expect him to get that much, especially since $23 mill is guaranteed. That's a pretty substantial sum for a guy who's turning 32 in a few weeks and has a substantial injury history.

Watt was still effective last year. His 4 and 5 sack totals the last two years dotn fully reflect his value. According to his qb hit rate, he should have had slightly more sacks each year. Subsequently, his 16 sack performance from 3 years back was likely overstated by the same metric. Either way in a decent defense, I think Watt is still a good player, probably a 7-10 sack guy over 16 games. I think he may be capable of popping off and going a bit higher but that 10 sacks over 16 games type of guy is his realistic upside, but that assumes he isn't going to continue to fall off with age.

At $15 mill a year for 2 years, I think best case scenario is he lives up to that contract. I think it's highly unlikely hell outplay the contract. And there's significant downside with his injury history and his age that he doesnt live up to the deal. Don't think Arizona is dumb for doing it or anything, but that would have been a risky move for us this off-season. I think I'd rather focus in possibly grabbing a few decent guys for that type of money if we're able to free it up.

We should have done it from this stand point... Look what brady did and how many followed him. We never do this **** man. Imagine how many of these guys would want to come play for brady/Adams/Watt... Watt is a massive ****ing Name and a fantastic player and i would rather over pay on the risk if it brings in legit talent looking for a ring at a fraction of the price.

[IRNMN]

We should have done it from this stand point... Look what brady did and how many followed him. We never do this **** man. Imagine how many of these guys would want to come play for brady/Adams/Watt... Watt is a massive ****ing Name and a fantastic player and i would rather over pay on the risk if it brings in legit talent looking for a ring at a fraction of the price.

A few things on this. I don't entirely disagree with you, but I don't think it's necessarily a black and white matter. I really would like to see how this off-season unfolds first. I think no one questions Watt would have been, but the $23 guaranteed largely as a statement Arizona needed to make and Green Bay didn't. $15 mil a season really would have restricted the cap even more than it is. Another thing is we don't know how much Green Bay offered, were they competitive? Were we close? Were they even in on Watt outside of making a phone call? Watt got the proverbial deal he couldn't refuse in Arizona, gets big money, a chance to compete (not as much as GB may have been), warm weather, and former teammates.

You bring up the people following Brady, but I'm not sure it was people following Brady 100%, the fact that Brady was also playing in Tampa and the warmer climate had to play a factor. There was never a mass movement to New England during his time there. He got a few, but not a mass movement. We've had players come here in part due to play alongside Rodgers Za'Darius, Preston, Graham, Bennett, Lewis, and Amos to name a few are just a few examples of this. Not all of those FA's panned out obviously. You're right Watt would have been a nice draw and may be the one defensive player with an actual "brand" he has but signing Watt almost limits how much we could spend on them. We still have plenty of draw to Green Bay Rodgers/Adams/Smith, young up-and-coming talent, up-and-coming coach, and legit Super Bowl contenders is still a very compelling draw.

The last thing, the biggest thing for me, is really how they work this off-season. So much of that would have gone to Watt would have handcuffed this team this off-season. By not spending all that on one guy how do they navigate free agency with the limited cap space? Handing out a handful of prove-it and low-price vet deals can get us in just as much of a contention window if not more than signing Watt alone. I think this criticism only becomes fair if they come out of this off-season virtually unchanged. If they're not finding smart deals with vets this off-season then I agree, they should have gone all-in on Watt.

[ugottabjoshinme]

We should have done it from this stand point... Look what brady did and how many followed him. We never do this **** man. Imagine how many of these guys would want to come play for brady/Adams/Watt... Watt is a massive ****ing Name and a fantastic player and i would rather over pay on the risk if it brings in legit talent looking for a ring at a fraction of the price.

Not sure we have the available money to pay that.

[IRNMN]

Kyle Van Noy was released today he could be a player to take a look at if we cut Preston as veteran depth. Even if not may be worth a look you can line him up at ILB and OLB. Certainly could craft some packages to make him a worthwhile signing. Can't imagine his price tag being unaffordable. Worth a flyer perhaps.

[crewfan13]

A few things on this. I don't entirely disagree with you, but I don't think it's necessarily a black and white matter. I really would like to see how this off-season unfolds first. I think no one questions Watt would have been, but the $23 guaranteed largely as a statement Arizona needed to make and Green Bay didn't. $15 mil a season really would have restricted the cap even more than it is. Another thing is we don't know how much Green Bay offered, were they competitive? Were we close? Were they even in on Watt outside of making a phone call? Watt got the proverbial deal he couldn't refuse in Arizona, gets big money, a chance to compete (not as much as GB may have been), warm weather, and former teammates.

You bring up the people following Brady, but I'm not sure it was people following Brady 100%, the fact that Brady was also playing in Tampa and the warmer climate had to play a factor. There was never a mass movement to New England during his time there. He got a few, but not a mass movement. We've had players come here in part due to play alongside Rodgers Za'Darius, Preston, Graham, Bennett, Lewis, and Amos to name a few are just a few examples of this. Not all of those FA's panned out obviously. You're right Watt would have been a nice draw and may be the one defensive player with an actual "brand" he has but signing Watt almost limits how much we could spend on them. We still have plenty of draw to Green Bay Rodgers/Adams/Smith, young up-and-coming talent, up-and-coming coach, and legit Super Bowl contenders is still a very compelling draw.

The last thing, the biggest thing for me, is really how they work this off-season. So much of that would have gone to Watt would have handcuffed this team this off-season. By not spending all that on one guy how do they navigate free agency with the limited cap space? Handing out a handful of prove-it and low-price vet deals can get us in just as much of a contention window if not more than signing Watt alone. I think this criticism only becomes fair if they come out of this off-season virtually unchanged. If they're not finding smart deals with vets this off-season then I agree, they should have gone all-in on Watt.

Agree. It's not like people flocked to Houston to play with Watt, even when he was a perennial DPOY candidate and they were a playoff team. And the "flocked to Tampa" thing is overblown to me. Who all really flocked? Gronk is very good friends with Brady and already living in the Tampa area. Other than that, the vets were guys like fournette who wasn't highly thought of. I think a washed up Mccoy signed too. Suh resigned but that was hardly a big pay cut.

Packers are already clearly contenders. They most the nfc championship game 2 years in a row and by 1 score thus past year. Who's sitting there saying I'm not going to GB right now but changes their mind if we get Watt? Like was Richard Sherman going to say I'm taking the vet minimum to play with Jj Watt in GB, but now that they didn't get him, I'm not considering it?

The paycut to play for a contender thing is way overblown to me. Guys do it, but usually it's not near the pay cut it's made out to be. Money talks. If one team is offering significantly more, guys almost always take it. Where they take a discount is when money is close. Or if they aren't getting a long term contract they think they deserve, they take a 1 year deal in a favorable situation to rehab their value. This idea that there's large swathes of guys taking lesser deals to play for contenders is overblown. And when it does, a place like Tampa with no state income tax and warm weather helps more than a 32 year old JJ Watt being added.

[IRNMN]

I'm not sure if anyone saw the presser today but one interesting note from the presser I saw pop in my feed was:

Brian Gutekunst says they 'certainly could' stage its star RB Aaron Jones. The Packers GM stated he will only use the tag if it's what's best for the #packers.

The tag rumors won't go away. If Jones is actually willing to play under the tag it could do a few things:

1. Keep him in Green Bay for one more year at a minimum and draft his replacement.
Pros: You keep one of your best play-makers; Can draft a replacement; Fair tag price; Don't run the risk of a long term deal
Cons: He may not want to play under a tag; May make him disgruntled

2. Give them more time to work out the details of a long-term deal that works for both sides. and open draft options.
Pros: Happy Jones, Happy Packers, Happy Aaron; Keep top tier playmaker made for this system; Great duo of Jones/Dillon
Cons: RB deals don't always pan out

3. Provide them a chance to tag and trade him (only if: see cons).
Pros: Get more compensation
Cons: May not find the same production

The tag cap hit would be I think about $8 mil. The idea continues to grow on me. I've said in a previous post I don't see too much downside to this, but not willing to break the bank to keep him. I don't think they are willing to break the bank for him. I think it's still possible 1 and 2 could happen. The worst-case in doing so is you trade him which is really not the worst scenario either.

Another not it sounded like they would not close the door on Linsley returning, but seem to be willing to let him test the market and see if he could get a bigger deal.

[PackerBum9786]

RB is such a hard position to give top tier contracts to. Who was the last RB that got a big pay check and was successful? serious question, was it Marshawn?

[IRNMN]

RB is such a hard position to give top tier contracts to. Who was the last RB that got a big pay check and was successful? serious question, was it Marshawn?

I'd say, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook are three backs who got paid and are looking like successful deals. But we'll have to see how they finish out. There's no real formula to say if it's going to work out, but plenty of RB's have gotten paid and done well. It's hard to judge who will and who won't live up to the deal. But of the RB's $7 mil or more AAV Kamara, Cook, Henry, Drake are pretty well living up to the deal. There's no guarantee.

David Johnson just renegotiated so not long in this group, but his deal wasn't great. I don't think Zeke's production may have been lower than the Cowboys hoped, but his production wasn't as bad as people are chalking it up to be he still had over 900 rush yds, 338 rec, needs to be better no question to live up to his deal. At the same time if he comes back and produces next season we'll see. The jury is still out with Mccaffrey and Mixon getting hurt. For every good deal, there is also probably also one that went bad.

[MFNkingAC]

Random thought.... would Kyle Rudolph be an upgrade over Mercedes Lewis? Released by Minn, and sort of phased out with addition of Irv Smith. I’ve seen people speculating him signing with potentially Cleveland, New England and Las Vegas, I’m sure he will get offers and not likely to sign with GB, my question is should they make an offer, especially when leaving a division rival. Seems they are still looking to add another TE with rumors in the past of Njoku, Ertz and OJ Howard. I may be in the minority not being sold on Tonyan because of success in the Redzone.

[crewfan13]

I'd say, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook are three backs who got paid and are looking like successful deals. But we'll have to see how they finish out. There's no real formula to say if it's going to work out, but plenty of RB's have gotten paid and done well. It's hard to judge who will and who won't live up to the deal. But of the RB's $7 mil or more AAV Kamara, Cook, Henry, Drake are pretty well living up to the deal. There's no guarantee.

David Johnson just renegotiated so not long in this group, but his deal wasn't great. I don't think Zeke's production may have been lower than the Cowboys hoped, but his production wasn't as bad as people are chalking it up to be he still had over 900 rush yds, 338 rec, needs to be better no question to live up to his deal. At the same time if he comes back and produces next season we'll see. The jury is still out with Mccaffrey and Mixon getting hurt. For every good deal, there is also probably also one that went bad.

Pretty early on Cook and Kamara though too. Neither of those guys have actually played a snap of their extension yet either. Not expecting either to fall off a cliff, but it happens with RBs. Usually all it takes is an injury or two and they can go downhill fast. And Henry has played 1 year on his deal as well.

And to me that's the big worry. It's not year 1. It's years 3 and 4 where you get a Preston Smith situation and you're eating a fair amount of dead cap. I don't hate the tag for Jones and signing him to a deal with relatively low guarantees would be fine but any agent worth his pay knows to get those guarantees, especially for a spot like RB. So I've never really considered a short term or incentive laden deal a realistic option. Tag could make sense but I also wonder if that money couldn't be spent elsewhere though too.

But one thing I've always been hung up on is drafting Dillon as high as they did. To take a RB in the 2nd, you have to imagine he's going to be the heavy end of a timeshare especially a guy like Dillon who isn't a 185lb offensive weapon type. And you can't really resign Jones and give Dillon his reps. Even if you want to keep Jones on a lighter workload, you can't pay him $8 mill and not give him the larger end of the timeshare. Everything we've said seems to make it sound like we're open to bringing Jones back, but I'm just not sure I see a scenario where it makes sense.

[IRNMN]

Random thought.... would Kyle Rudolph be an upgrade over Mercedes Lewis? Released by Minn, and sort of phased out with addition of Irv Smith. I’ve seen people speculating him signing with potentially Cleveland, New England and Las Vegas, I’m sure he will get offers and not likely to sign with GB, my question is should they make an offer, especially when leaving a division rival. Seems they are still looking to add another TE with rumors in the past of Njoku, Ertz and OJ Howard. I may be in the minority not being sold on Tonyan because of success in the Redzone.

In terms of a receiving ability he would a bit of an upgrade, but blocking may be different, though Rudolph has improved as a block I would say he's a drop as a blocker. What we gain as a receiver we may lose a blocker at this point of their careers. I think the big thing would be value. Rudolph may still decent size deal where if we were to bring it back Lewis will be cheaper. Overall, I think we should either hold firm at TE see what guys like Jace, Deguara, Daffnet, Lovett can do if we add to the group may be the draft.

While I might agree that think Tonyan needs to prove it another year before we judge where he ranks among TEs. He showed the ability last year to be a reliable receiver in various areas. He had 52 receptions and extremely reliable the 586 years doesn't seem to suggest a fluke. In terms of receptions, he was the #2 receiver. I don't think he's going to regress majorly.