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  1. #121
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    Nov 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But we're talking realistic upside. Brady also threw 3 picks in the 2nd half. So it's possible you still win anyways. But realistically, you have about a 27% chance of the GG, stop, TD win scenario. The question is whether or not you think you can get a successful try on 4th down at a higher clip than 27%. I think the answer is yes. But the flip side is there's also a scenario where you pick up most of the yards bit don't get a TD. Turning it over on downs inside the 10 puts some added pressure on fielding a kick and downing it at around the 15. The closer you get to your own end zone, especially I'm a situation where 2 pts is huge, makes a difference in offensive strategy too.

    That being said, there's no guarantee that they don't score, get the 2 pt and hold to another 3 and out and only need a FG. There's alot of possibilities. But at the end of the day, the upside of going for it was tying the game. Even if that means playing for OT, thats a massive upside. In today's NFL, getting a 3 and out, regardless of team is tough. Every single week you see teams punt or kick and never get the ball back. Its an offensive driven league. To take the ball out of your offenses hands to rely on your defense, and still need a TD from your offense, is a bad choice if there's any chance to tie. 4th and 8 is not an unmanageable down anymore by any stretch of the imagination.
    For the 2018 season, the team with the lowest rate of 3-and-outs across the league had it at 23%. Even if you think Tampa matches that, 23% is still a better chance than converting both the TD and the 2-point.

  2. #122
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    Jul 2020
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    91
    It wouldn't surprise me if he asks for a trade. After that disastrous decision to kick a field goal and another failed conference championship, he may feel Green Bay simply doesn't give him the best chance to win another Super Bowl.

  3. #123
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    Aug 2020
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    987
    Quote Originally Posted by d.m.g. View Post
    It wouldn't surprise me if he asks for a trade. After that disastrous decision to kick a field goal and another failed conference championship, he may feel Green Bay simply doesn't give him the best chance to win another Super Bowl.
    If GB doesn't restructure his contract to be the highest paid QB of all time per season in a 1+1 deal like Brady, he should demand to leave like Watson is doing. Every team will rather have the MVP winner between the two imho

    https://youtu.be/LF4HXASo7LI

  4. #124
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    Jun 2011
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    11,496
    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    How do you figure 10%
    Among other things, because he's only converted 2 4th downs of more than 3 yards all season and his comp % is under 55% when trailing with less than 4 mins to go.
    Dak: 17,634 @ 66.0%, 7.7 per att, 106+24 TD, 40 INT+34 FMB, 97.3 Rate
    Wentz: 16,811 @ 62.7%, 6.7 per att, 113+8 TD, 50 INT+58 FMB, 89.2 Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    I'll eat a shoe if BB is still coaching in 5 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Sticking to traditions:

    IF Wentz is a Philadelphia Eagle in 2021, he will be the starter. If not, bye bye PSD, I'll leave.
    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

  5. #125
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    May 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    The only way this works is if kicking a chip shot field goal is equally as difficult versus scoring a TD against the 5th best D in the league. A defense that held Rodgers to 16/35 for 160 and 0 TDs 2 INTs earlier in the season.

    The likelihood of Rodgers converting on 4th down was sub 10%.


    Ranked from most likely to least likely:

    1. Kick the field goal, don't get the ball back, lose
    2. Kick the field goal, get the ball back, win
    3. Kick the field goal, Brady throws a pick 6 on the next play, but then gets the ball back and scores again
    4. Fake the field goal and have Favre catch the pass
    5. Kick the field goal, Tampa muffs the kickoff return, safety
    6. Rodgers converts to score the TD and whiffs on the 2pc
    7. Rodgers converts to score the TD and makes the 2pc
    lmao

  6. #126
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    Jul 2008
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    Why is this still even a conversation?

  7. #127
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    Jun 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    Why is this still even a conversation?
    Good conversations typically don't last long. It's the ridiculous ones that go further than they should lol
    The Baker has come. Believe the hype.


  8. #128
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    Jun 2010
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    Rodgers is playing the game. He's going on the offensive. GB is now in a really tough spot. Going to be interesting to see what they do because they very well could **** this up.

  9. #129
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    Aug 2011
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    4,631
    Quote Originally Posted by tigers.6 View Post
    Rodgers is playing the game. He's going on the offensive. GB is now in a really tough spot. Going to be interesting to see what they do because they very well could **** this up.
    Rodgers is going to ask for a new contract. He will probably want the next three years fully guaranteed which won’t sit well with GreenBays plans.

  10. #130
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    Jun 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by mariner4life View Post
    Rodgers is going to ask for a new contract. He will probably want the next three years fully guaranteed which won’t sit well with GreenBays plans.
    Yup. Playing the game. From what I have heard Love hasn't looked that great in practice. Sign him to a new contract. Get some assets and win another super bowl while he's there.

  11. #131
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    Jan 2011
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    686
    Quote Originally Posted by cattusmaru View Post
    If GB doesn't restructure his contract to be the highest paid QB of all time per season in a 1+1 deal like Brady, he should demand to leave like Watson is doing. Every team will rather have the MVP winner between the two imho

    https://youtu.be/LF4HXASo7LI
    Maybe if Rodgers wasn't old, what does he have 5 years max left? Watson is 25, barring catastrophic injury you will get at minimum 10 years out of him.

    Dont get me wrong they can probably get 2 or 3 first rounders for rodgers + but I would rather have Watson in Carolina, although I would take either.

  12. #132
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    Nov 2008
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    12,694
    Quote Originally Posted by Andrei00 View Post
    For the 2018 season, the team with the lowest rate of 3-and-outs across the league had it at 23%. Even if you think Tampa matches that, 23% is still a better chance than converting both the TD and the 2-point.
    But weird, what it you make the td and don't get the 2 pt. You still need a 3 and out and can kick a fg to win. But that doesn't factor into your thinking at all. Because kicking kicking the fg and needing a td is easier than scoring the td and needing the fg.

    And what you're calculating, if wr accept your number as the truth, is you've basically said you have a 25% chance of getting the ball back.

    And that's the point with win probability. Sure, you can act smart and say highest reward doesn't equal smartest play or whatever semantics you want to argue. The fact is the difference in win probability if you miss the conversion or make the kick is minimal and in both cases leaves you with a 70%+ chance of losing. Converting on 4th down, whether it be a TD or a penalty, would result in a fairly massive shift in win probability and put the odds much closer to 60/40.

    And thats what I mean with risk vs reward. Sure, the highest reward is winning the game. But the Packers could have tied it and Brady could have thrown 3 straight pick 6s for all we know. You have to look at the risk vs reward of completing that individual play. The risk is a few negative percentage points on your win probability. Probably dropping by less than 5%. But in either case, you're still likely to lose. But the reward if you make it is a fairly substantial jump in win probability. It also gives you one more play to work with that can even jump you win probability quite a bit higher. That's the higher upside scenario for that exact play.

  13. #133
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    Nov 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    Among other things, because he's only converted 2 4th downs of more than 3 yards all season and his comp % is under 55% when trailing with less than 4 mins to go.
    So a complete bs and made up number. Thanks for the clarification.

  14. #134
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    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    If there's two coaches I could bet money on Aaron Rodgers not voluntarily playing for, it's BB and McCarthy. I don't understand Pats fans who are getting themselves invested in this idea that Rodgers could end up in NE, but it's not happening and it wouldn't be as great of a marriage as they think it would.
    Well that's why I have NE dead last on my list. I know what's probably gonna happen all the good QBs are gonna be signed then Cam ends up coming back to NE as the starter we end up going 4-12 not 7-9 or 8-8 all because Bill still thinks he can play. Then we somehow get into the top 10 drift picks. Bill decides to retire after the 2021 season where McDaniel's takes over and we become the next laughing stock for the next 10 years.


    Vince to Gronk

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by BSF101 View Post
    Well that's why I have NE dead last on my list. I know what's probably gonna happen all the good QBs are gonna be signed then Cam ends up coming back to NE as the starter we end up going 4-12 not 7-9 or 8-8 all because Bill still thinks he can play. Then we somehow get into the top 10 drift picks. Bill decides to retire after the 2021 season where McDaniel's takes over and we become the next laughing stock for the next 10 years.
    Why would they go 4-12 with all the COVID opt-outs returning and more cap space?

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