2021 Chicago Cubs Minor League Thread

[Proximo]

Sure, but that's really only Happ's argument and doesn't look at everything. If an arbiter did only take a 60 game sample and extrapolate it out, it'd be pretty unfair considering the lack of a season. Statistics don't always run that way and there's a lot of times fall off when you start doing that. I think both sides probably have a unique situation. Surely, that will be Happ's stand point. From the Cubs stand point, they can show that he was awful in 2019 by needing to be sent to AAA (and subsequently his AAA numbers), he's only had a productive 1.5 or so months in the last 2 years, and that the 2nd half of his season last year was not good. I would imagine the arbiter will take a little from column A and a little from column B. There's no middle ground in a ruling, so where they fall, will be interesting.

For Ian Happ, I hope he wins. Frankly, I'd rather the money end up in his pocket. But the arguments from both sides will be strong enough that this is not an open and shut case. We've also never seen an arbitration situation like this. Trying to figure out how an arbiter will rule, is, really, impossible right now.

Keeping Ian Happ is the single biggest priority for the Cubs this offseason.

[1908_Cubs]

Keeping Ian Happ is the single biggest priority for the Cubs this offseason.

Happ is arbitration eligible for 3 years and under team control. They aren't going to "lose" him.

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[JHBulls]

I hesitate to say he has the "most" upside, but that's because you can dream on a lot of guys. There's a world where Braiyln Marquez is Randy Johnson, there's a world where Reginald Preciado is Fernando Tatis, there's a world where Brennan Davis is David Justice in CF, there's a world where Miguel Amaya is Pudge Rodriguez and there's a world where Owen Caissie is Cody Bellanger. If those guys are that, than you can make an argument for any of them as the biggest upside, too. So it's hard, upside is...almost limitless for a handful of players.

What I'll instead say about Cristian Hernandez is this; he's got every tool in his bag. He's got the frame to hit for major power and he's got the twitch to stay at SS. A lot of people have given him the A-Rod comp, and you can see why; he was 6"1 when he was 16 years old, and MLB.com has him listed at 6"2 (I suspect he'll probably add an inch, as he's a baby still and that's fairly normal). You can look at A-Rod's initial frame and go "Yeah I see that". I'm not sure where he goes, but there's tantalizing upside here. He's the best IFA player the Cubs have signed in a few years, and he's on par with Eloy, Soler, and Gleyber in terms of "day they signed him" upside. I'm excited. It's basically likely paying for an extra top-5 pick in a draft.

In terms of the system: it's probably fair to say the Cubs have the best SS position prospects in terms of number an depth in baseball and we should be over the moon about that. Between Howard, Preciado (probably slides, but lets pretend), Hernandez, Santana...the Cubs are fairly stacked at the position.

Thanks for this. Must say that I love reading your posts because of your writing style and that you know plenty about prospects around Baseball. I know just by reading your posts whether or not to be truly excited about the prospects we’ve just added into the system, be it through trading or IFA.

There’s a few of you on here with very similar knowledge. This is truly one of -if not the best - the best Cubs forums on the internet.

[chibears55]

There’s a few of you on here with very similar knowledge. This is truly one of -if not the best - the best Cubs forums on the internet.

Appreciate the compliment [emoji16]



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[1908_Cubs]

Thanks for this. Must say that I love reading your posts because of your writing style and that you know plenty about prospects around Baseball. I know just by reading your posts whether or not to be truly excited about the prospects we’ve just added into the system, be it through trading or IFA.

There’s a few of you on here with very similar knowledge. This is truly one of -if not the best - the best Cubs forums on the internet.

Thanks man! Really it was those terrible years between 2011 and 2014. I spent so much time paying attention to the minors and the draft that I built up a strong knowledgeable of the system. Then kept following the draft. Snowballed on me. Glad someone thinks it's been worth it!

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[Proximo]

Happ is arbitration eligible for 3 years and under team control. They aren't going to "lose" him.

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Goody goody gum drops. Happ is the type of player that you build a team around.

[CubsRule08]

Thanks man! Really it was those terrible years between 2011 and 2014. I spent so much time paying attention to the minors and the draft that I built up a strong knowledgeable of the system. Then kept following the draft. Snowballed on me. Glad someone thinks it's been worth it!

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I second JH’s comments 100%. Glad that we have very knowledgeable people in this forum that know the minor leagues more than others can/do.

Sucks that it’s likely to head back to those 2011-14 days in here again, but I’m definitely going to pay attention to the minor leagues this time around.

Good work as always, 1908.

[JHBulls]

Appreciate the compliment [emoji16]



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You’re welcome, too!

Thanks man! Really it was those terrible years between 2011 and 2014. I spent so much time paying attention to the minors and the draft that I built up a strong knowledgeable of the system. Then kept following the draft. Snowballed on me. Glad someone thinks it's been worth it!

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It is definitely worth it. So keep up the good work and I will continue to read your posts.

[cuzi]

Goody goody gum drops. Happ is the type of player that you build a team around.

Build around Happ? Huh?

Ignoring the fact that hes basically the type of player this team has sent out there in the lineup 1-6 and is spiraling downward to the point of selling off everything and rebuilding from scratch, Happ is a borderline platoon player. He's not completely useless against LHP but you probably want a different option than Happ when one is on the mound. He's got a career 29% K rate because anything above the belt and down and in is his kryptonite.

Happ is not good enough to be the guy you choose to build around.

[1908_Cubs]

Goody goody gum drops. Happ is the type of player that you build a team around.

No...he's not. Hes done nothing to prove that. While he's generally hit RHP well throughout his career, he's struggled against LHP. Hes not an every day player for a championship type team, more someone you'd hope to sit against LHP most days. Defensively he's not a CF long term, probably needing to slide to a LF position not long from now.

Platoon type corner OF'ers are not what good teams build around. I'm not against Happ in the lineup, especially as we enter a rebuilding period, and maybe in a year or two you consider extending him for a reasonable price for a few more years, but he's no franchise corner stone. Let's not kid ourselves or lower the bar for franchise players to include Ian Happs of the world.

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[thawv]

Sure, but that's really only Happ's argument and doesn't look at everything. If an arbiter did only take a 60 game sample and extrapolate it out, it'd be pretty unfair considering the lack of a season. Statistics don't always run that way and there's a lot of times fall off when you start doing that. I think both sides probably have a unique situation. Surely, that will be Happ's stand point. From the Cubs stand point, they can show that he was awful in 2019 by needing to be sent to AAA (and subsequently his AAA numbers), he's only had a productive 1.5 or so months in the last 2 years, and that the 2nd half of his season last year was not good. I would imagine the arbiter will take a little from column A and a little from column B. There's no middle ground in a ruling, so where they fall, will be interesting.

For Ian Happ, I hope he wins. Frankly, I'd rather the money end up in his pocket. But the arguments from both sides will be strong enough that this is not an open and shut case. We've also never seen an arbitration situation like this. Trying to figure out how an arbiter will rule, is, really, impossible right now.

Completely valid points, teach!

If I were the arbitrator, I would look at the second half of 2019, and the 60 game season from 2020. Just for the hell of it, I checked out MLB Trade Rumors projection. Here's what they say.

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM

Seeing what our other guys agreed on, it appears that it's closer to extrapolating numbers. Not fully though, but in line with method number 2 a little more.

Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM


The reason I think that Happ will win is that I think that the Cubs low balled him too much. It would be interesting to be sitting at the table listening to arguments.

[chibears55]

Completely valid points, teach!

If I were the arbitrator, I would look at the second half of 2019, and the 60 game season from 2020. Just for the hell of it, I checked out MLB Trade Rumors projection. Here's what they say.

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM

Seeing what our other guys agreed on, it appears that it's closer to extrapolating numbers. Not fully though, but in line with method number 2 a little more.

Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM


The reason I think that Happ will win is that I think that the Cubs low balled him too much. It would be interesting to be sitting at the table listening to arguments.

Another thing with Arb hearings this time around that could make it a bit more difficult for the Arbitrator is that these players mainly played games within their division and some division were weaker talent wise then others.

Player A numbers may be down some from 2019 because he faced tougher pitching for 60 games playing in the X division

Play B numbers were much better then 2019 cause the overall pitching in division Y wasn't that great all season

So not only do the Arbitrators have to deal with having just a SSS of games, they also have to decide if the players benefited or were hurt by the level of competition they had to face for 60 games compared to what they would normally face over a normal 162.

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[thawv]

Another thing with Arb hearings this time around that could make it a bit more difficult for the Arbitrator is that these players mainly played games within their division and some division were weaker talent wise then others.

Player A numbers may be down some from 2019 because he faced tougher pitching for 60 games playing in the X division

Play B numbers were much better then 2019 cause the overall pitching in division Y wasn't that great all season

So not only do the Arbitrators have to deal with having just a SSS of games, they also have to decide if the players benefited or were hurt by the level of competition they had to face for 60 games compared to what they would normally face over a normal 162.

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Excellent point. But the arbitrator will listen to both arguments, and base his decision on the info he's given. If neither sides mentions it, it won't be considered in his decision.

[Proximo]

No...he's not. Hes done nothing to prove that. While he's generally hit RHP well throughout his career, he's struggled against LHP. Hes not an every day player for a championship type team, more someone you'd hope to sit against LHP most days. Defensively he's not a CF long term, probably needing to slide to a LF position not long from now.

Platoon type corner OF'ers are not what good teams build around. I'm not against Happ in the lineup, especially as we enter a rebuilding period, and maybe in a year or two you consider extending him for a reasonable price for a few more years, but he's no franchise corner stone. Let's not kid ourselves or lower the bar for franchise players to include Ian Happs of the world.

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His locker room presence and baseball IQ are worth their weight in gold, you cannot statically qualify those intagibles. More so considering David Ross's liabilities as a manager. Where Happ goes as do the Cubs fortunes.

[1908_Cubs]

His locker room presence and baseball IQ are worth their weight in gold, you cannot statically qualify those intagibles. More so considering David Ross's liabilities as a manager. Where Happ goes as do the Cubs fortunes.

Did Ian Happ hack your account? "Where Happ goes as do the Cubs fortunes"? Are you serious? His "Baseball IQ"? Listen, I like Ian Happ, he seems to have plenty of respect in the Cubs locker room, but let's not act like he's the leader in that room in any way over guys like Rizzo, and Heyward, or David Ross (who doesn't have "liabilities" as a manager, but I'm not jumping down that inane rabbit hole with you a second time, so we're just leaving that there). You don't pay for those things and you certainly don't build a locker room or a franchise around him.

Show me one franchise who has built around a platoon player and is successful. Because that's certainly not what successful franchises like the Astros, the Dodgers, the Yankees, or the Cubs have been doing. No one does that.

Again, I think there's a decent argument to be made with a good 2021 season that you consider extending Happ for a few years. He's under control for 2 seasons after this, and probably is a reasonable extend for 2 years after. That'd take you through his age 30 season. A 4/$40-45m deal probably makes sense for both sides where you start around $6-7m and build to around $15m by age 30. Maybe toss in an option year to take him through 31. He's got to prove he's a good MLB player for a full season, something he's struggled to do at times in the past before you offer him that, though. But there's nothing in his profile that says anything like "build a franchise around him" or anything that suggests "As Happ goes the Cubs go". He's a useful role player who is well respected. Let's leave it at that and stop conflating him as more.