2021 Chicago Cubs Minor League Thread

[JBears79]

Yea it has.

I like Triantos, but it's hard for me to get too excited until I see the power develop. He's still really young so he has the time, I'm just not there yet.

He just needs another year in the weight room. The power should come after that.

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[chicagofan08]

So a quick question for the veteran MILB pundits. With our current pipeline of 30 top players what would be the expected outcome ratio using historical trends of how many can expect to become everyday starters with a potential WAR ceiling of 3-5 per year? This question includes positional players and pitchers. Has anyone ever done any analysis of this kind?

[1908_Cubs]

So a quick question for the veteran MILB pundits. With our current pipeline of 30 top players what would be the expected outcome ratio using historical trends of how many can expect to become everyday starters with a potential WAR ceiling of 3-5 per year? This question includes positional players and pitchers. Has anyone ever done any analysis of this kind?

There's really no correlation between that stuff, so I doubt anyone's done any real analysis. The Cubs have a clear top-8 right now that includes: Davis, Killian, Hernandez, Wicks, Caissie, Alcantara, PCA, Herz. Whomever you have in the 8 spot, is likely better than 25 other organization's top-8th prospect right now. Deeper yet, the Cubs have one of the deepest systems; they run about 40 deep on guys who have some MLB upside (even bench MLB upside is MLB upside), so the Cubs 26th best prospect today is much better than, say, the Angels 26th best prospect. There just isn't much of a reason for anyone to run those kinds of statistical models because there's probably just no real correlation.

It's better to look at FV's of prospects; which is why those things get used; they help figure out what the upside of someone is. This might help out answer what you're looking for. It explains the different future value outcomes and scouting and what they mean. This is also a really nice article on just how many prospects fail to make it to their 100% outcomes. It especially looks at top prospects, but it can probably be used to trickle down to expectations of Cub prospects. There's even a section on Cub young prospects at the bottom!

[rcal10]

There's really no correlation between that stuff, so I doubt anyone's done any real analysis. The Cubs have a clear top-8 right now that includes: Davis, Killian, Hernandez, Wicks, Caissie, Alcantara, PCA, Herz. Whomever you have in the 8 spot, is likely better than 25 other organization's top-8th prospect right now. Deeper yet, the Cubs have one of the deepest systems; they run about 40 deep on guys who have some MLB upside (even bench MLB upside is MLB upside), so the Cubs 26th best prospect today is much better than, say, the Angels 26th best prospect. There just isn't much of a reason for anyone to run those kinds of statistical models because there's probably just no real correlation.

It's better to look at FV's of prospects; which is why those things get used; they help figure out what the upside of someone is. This might help out answer what you're looking for. It explains the different future value outcomes and scouting and what they mean. This is also a really nice article on just how many prospects fail to make it to their 100% outcomes. It especially looks at top prospects, but it can probably be used to trickle down to expectations of Cub prospects. There's even a section on Cub young prospects at the bottom!

Because they are so deep, they should package some young talent and get real major league talent. Then sing a few free agents and actually try in 22. That is the way to run a large market team. Not wait for this great group of prospects to either make the majors or fail.

[JBears79]

Because they are so deep, they should package some young talent and get real major league talent. Then sing a few free agents and actually try in 22. That is the way to run a large market team. Not wait for this great group of prospects to either make the majors or fail.

Highly doubt Tom allows that. He saw that he could win with cheap talent using Theo's strategy while lining his pockets so he will do the same here. Were probably at least 2-3 years away from "spending" again.

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[Stratos]

He just needs another year in the weight room. The power should come after that.

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He's a small guy. I don't think he will ever hit many HR.

[WOwolfOL]

There are plenty of small guys who put up big power numbers. You need a good swing path and his is not geared for it at this point. But there's plenty of strength there.

Size is slightly overrated.

[JBears79]

He's a small guy. I don't think he will ever hit many HR.

What? No hes not. Hes 6'1" 190ish lbs. 15-20 HRs a year isnt out of the question.

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[WOwolfOL]

Mervis homers for the 2nd consecutive night

[1908_Cubs]

He's a small guy. I don't think he will ever hit many HR.

He's 6"1. He's not "a small guy". He needs to fill out...but most 19 year olds need to fill out.

Triantos doesn't have a swing path right now that really lends to power. He likely needs a bit of a swing path tweak, he needs to get older and fill out, and he needs to gain experience. He's very underage and MB is not, and has never been, a good environment for offense.

He's got 15-20 HR upside. It's just going to take a bit.

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[huff]

Dude is barely 19, in full season A ball and hitting .300. Can we give him at least a couple years to mature before we say he’s a slap hitter with no pop 😑 guy has ELITE contact skills

[Stratos]

He's 6"1. He's not "a small guy". He needs to fill out...but most 19 year olds need to fill out.

Triantos doesn't have a swing path right now that really lends to power. He likely needs a bit of a swing path tweak, he needs to get older and fill out, and he needs to gain experience. He's very underage and MB is not, and has never been, a good environment for offense.

He's got 15-20 HR upside. It's just going to take a bit.

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They can list whatever numbers they wish on his profile. He looked small compared to most of the other Cubs prospects and young players in ST. He looked like a slightly bigger version of Madrigal.

[1908_Cubs]

They can list whatever numbers they wish on his profile. He looked small compared to most of the other Cubs prospects and young players in ST. He looked like a slightly bigger version of Madrigal.

Nick Madrigal is 5"7. Triantos is listed at 6"1 on the Cubs site. Pre draft, he was listed at 6"1 through Jim Callis (his words). Even Perfect Game, a non-Cub, non-MLB affiliated draft source has him at 6"1. So either, everyone who has ever measured James Triantos missed by about 6 inches and he's really 5"7...or what you think you kind of, might have seen on a quick view of a ST stream was wrong. You can pick which of those things you want to believe. It is likely that what you think you saw as "small" was a baby-faced 19 year old kid walking around near grow *** adults who have been on MLB organizations and strength and training programs for 5-8 years and he just looked "small" because of that.

I will go with the latter and that James Triantos is basically 6"1, myself. MLB.com rarely updates weights of prospects. It is why Morel is listed at 145lbs. I have never once seen them miss a prospects height by 6 inches. At 6"1 Triantos is not a "small guy". He's not a "big" guy like Owen Caiasie but he's not Madrigal small or anywhere near it.

Yes, Triantos could stand to hit more HR currently. Size isn't an issue, at this point it's generating lift, weight training and filling out, and playing against advanced pitching and figuring out how to attack it. He went from playing HS baseball last year in the spring to playing, basically, straight into A ball, at a difficult Myrtle Beach hitting environment. That he isn't hitting loads of bombs isn't a very shocking development. He does have, likely, 15-20 HR power as his ceiling when all things are factored in.

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[Stratos]

Nick Madrigal is 5"7. Triantos is listed at 6"1 on the Cubs site. Pre draft, he was listed at 6"1 through Jim Callis (his words). Even Perfect Game, a non-Cub, non-MLB affiliated draft source has him at 6"1. So either, everyone who has ever measured James Triantos missed by about 6 inches and he's really 5"7...or what you think you kind of, might have seen on a quick view of a ST stream was wrong. You can pick which of those things you want to believe. It is likely that what you think you saw as "small" was a baby-faced 19 year old kid walking around near grow *** adults who have been on MLB organizations and strength and training programs for 5-8 years and he just looked "small" because of that.

I will go with the latter and that James Triantos is basically 6"1, myself. MLB.com rarely updates weights of prospects. It is why Morel is listed at 145lbs. I have never once seen them miss a prospects height by 6 inches. At 6"1 Triantos is not a "small guy". He's not a "big" guy like Owen Caiasie but he's not Madrigal small or anywhere near it.

Yes, Triantos could stand to hit more HR currently. Size isn't an issue, at this point it's generating lift, weight training and filling out, and playing against advanced pitching and figuring out how to attack it. He went from playing HS baseball last year in the spring to playing, basically, straight into A ball, at a difficult Myrtle Beach hitting environment. That he isn't hitting loads of bombs isn't a very shocking development. He does have, likely, 15-20 HR power as his ceiling when all things are factored in.

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MLB.com/MiLB, baseball reference, and fangraphs has Madrigal listed at 5'8, not 5'7.

[CP_414]

https://www.google.com/search?q=jame...ybIX4eBVpk6ZSM

Triantos and PCA are 6’1. Precaido is 6’4.

Not that it matters. Plenty of small guys have power. A bunch of us are hoping Termarr Johnson makes it to the cubs at 7 in the draft. He’s small but has power.

The lack of power for Triantos is more of a swing issue than a size issue.