2021 Bears Off Season thread

[Kyben36]

Mock offseason.... Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace Go Balls to the wall to save their own *****.
(this mock draft in no way reflects what I would do. But something tells me its something that the bears might do. I do think this is how they convinced the FO to give them one last chance though)

Cap Number- $176,000,000

Bears Current Cap Spending - $181,073,580

Bears Current Cap Space - (-5,073580)


Cap Clearings

Restructure

Khalil Mack - $12,128,250
Kyle Fulller- $8,283,333
Robert Quinn- $7,893,750 ( )
Cody Whitehair- $4,132,500
Eddie Jackson- $6,045,000
Charles Leno-$5,283,333

Cuts

Akiem Hicks- $10,500,000
Bobby Massie- $5,400,000
Jimmy Greham- $7,000,000

Total Cap Savings- $66,666,166

Cap Space - $61,592,586

!!!!TRADE!!!!

Trade Allen Robinson in a tag and trade for a 2nd round pick- I know some might hate this but cap runs away real quick spending 20 mil on Robinson. Plus half of me feels like he and this FO are done. I wonder if his time isnt over here.

Resign

DE Roy Robertson-Harris 2 years 4 mil- missed half the year and honestly was not missed. takes a deal or takes off
TE Demetrius Harris 1 year 2 mil- He played a solid amount. probably worth keeping as a blocking TE
S Deon Bush- 1 year 2 mil - I think Bush is a solid player. I dont think he can start but could easily replace too.
DT John Jenkins- 1 year 1 mil - A depth guy nothing more
LS Patrick Scales 1 year 1 mil- just have to
K Cairo Santos 3 year 9 mil- No kicking problems this year. Fingers crossed
OL Alex Bars - 1 year 2 mil- I am assuming the worst here, I dont think anyone poaches him but maybe?

Total Spent on resigning- 13 mil

Free Agents (all numbers grabed off this page )

LT Trent Williams - 4 year 80 mil- This move comes down to what do I think is easier. Getting a WR or getting a LT. The answer is simple. I love Robinson and he is great. But we dont exactly scheme for him anyway. He will be missed But I think double dipping and getting Williams + a 2nd round pick would be worth it.


LB Denzel Perryman- 2 year 13 mil- This has been suggested and Honestly I have kinda come around to the idea of moving into a 4-3 and out of a 3-4. This should in theory help Quinn. It makes replacing Hicks (which is damn near impossible) easier IMO. And It can help to make Danny Trevathan into more of a bench player which is honestly best for him at this point.

CB Mike Hilton - 3 year 15 mil - I think its clear that we have to replace Buster Skrine. I dont know if any of the guys we have drafted in the last few years are going to be able to. But the truth is Nickle CBs typically get the shaft a little meaning they are cheaper. Hilton is one of the best in the league and can do it all.


Cap room spent in FA - 31.5 mil

Draft

1st- Rashawn Slater RT Northwestern- Some may say he is too small to play tackle. Some may not like the fact he held out this year. There are many reasons why he could slip. But Slater is arguably the top Tackle in the draft class. He held his own vs Chase Young last year. I think despite his lack of size he can play over on the right hand side fine.
2nd (via Robinson Trade) -Terrace Marshall Jr. WR LSU- I dont think we will be able to replace Robinson. But I think you can give your QB Weapons all over the field to help. That is my plan to replace Robinson. instead of trying to have 1 main guy, have a handful of talented guys and maybe one can jump out.
2nd- Marquez Stevenson WR Houston- I know we have Mooney but this team just lacks big play guys who can take the top off. Stevenson helps to solve this. This can also help to replace Paterson in kick return duties
3rd- Andre Cisco S Syracuse- The one Spot I think I failed to address is S. But I have a feeling you can find an OK S in the mid round of the nfl draft who should be... lets say serviceable.
5th- Best ILB Available- Im going to let Pace handle picks from here on out as he seems to allways be able to find some type of steels.... But if we really do switch to a 4-3 it means we need depth at LB. Yes I picked up Perriman in FA but if one goes down we literally only have 3 left. we need some sort of depth.
6th- Max Duffy P Kentucky- Look I didnt take the cap space to resign Pat Odonell. I know drafting a punter is so unsexy. But Honestly if we use on of our picks or one of our comp picks on one who cares.
6th- Best OLB, DE, S,CB,OL RB ect avaialble- Again I dont pretend to be a draft expert. thats Ryan pace's forte. Plenty of positions that could use depth though. Hopefully he can strike some gold with the left over picks.
7th- BPA

June 1st

Cut Buster Skrine- $5,000,000- Look Skrine was fine. But he has been replaced. His concussions have gotten bad and its time to move one

!!!!! TRADE ALERT!!!!!

Bears Trade 3 future 1st round picks to the Houston Texans for Deshaun Watson

This may seem late to some but I think there are two reasons this trade happens post June First. 1) I think the Texans will do everything to try and make Deshaun happy in the draft an time leading up to it to salvage their relationship 2) If they trade him before June 1st they owe him 21 mil but after only 5. So its in their best interest to wait. Which also may help weed out some teams in terms of not wanting to wait and see on QB.

He would be due $10,540,000 from us this year.

Total Cap Dues-

Cap Space- $61,592,586

Resigning- 13 mil

Free Agents -31.5 mil

Post June 1st cut- (5 mil extra)

Deshaun Trade- $10,540,000

Draft - plus or minus 5 mil

Left over to Fill the roster - 6.5 mil plus or minus


Roster-

Offense

QB Watson/Foles
RB-Montgomery/Cohen/????
WR-Terrace Marshall Jr/ Javon Wims
WR2- Darnell Mooney/Riley Ridley
Slot- Marquez Stevenson/Anthony Miller
TE- Kmet/Harris/????
LT- Williams/Leno
LG-Whitehair/Barrs
C- Mustapher/????
RG- Daniels/Barrs
RT- Slater/Leno

Defense

LE-Mack/Gipson
NT-Goldman/Jenkins
DT- Nichols/RRH
RE-Quinn/?????
ROLB- Danny Trevathan/Iggy
ILB- Roquan/5th round pick???
LOLB- Perryman/????
CB- Fuller/ Vildor
NB- Hilton/Shelly
CB- Johnson/????
SS- Jackson/?????
FS- Cisco/Bush

Summary- Feel like Loosing Robinson Sucks ***. But the improved OL makes it worth it IMO. It means there should be no issues running the football. It means Watson should have more time in the pocket to find the open receiver. And Like I hinted at it makes it so You cant just solely focus on Robinson Either. The Defense IMO makes some improvement. It sucks that we loose hicks But Getting a guy like Perryman could actually end up taking over for Danny as he declines. And Actually replacing our Nickle in FA with Hilton Really does help a ton IMO on what you can do on defense. The Terrible news is when Watsons new contract kicks in, And all this money we shoved into the future. We could have real issues down the road. And if Watson does not fix the offense it means the new GM and HC have a hell of a hard time changing up any portion of the roster. But Part of me says that Pace wont give a **** about next year. Him and Nagy are playing for their jobs. Something that should have been happening this year for both but we didnt see any urgency from them. So maybe im wrong.

NOTE: this idea can easily be modified to keep Robinson. Just take away one of the 2nd round picks and Williams. But then Leno is back to starting which I cant stand. You could use the 2nd round pick on a Tackle then too. But honestly IDK what you can really expect out of a 2nd round tackle and expect him to start.

[shorvath721]

Just like that....the cap isn’t an issue!!!

The only guy listed above that I don’t restructure is Quinn. You want to be able to get out of that contract ASAP if he doesn’t perform next year, in which, he knows he might get cut, so maybe he actually does perform!!!!

[shorvath721]

Derek carr was 15th in CAY/Cmp in 2020
26th in 2019
28th in 2018


Yikes

Isn't it concerning that 2 of the last 3 seasons he's been at the bottom of the barrel in competed air yards per pass completion . Whereas Stafford and Ryan are near the top of the league, aside from Stafford's outlier 2018 season.

Ryan was 3rd in 2020, Stafford 9th
Ryan was 7th in 2019, Stafford 2nd, Dak 3rd
Ryan was 8th 2018, Stafford 33rd (huh lmao)

I tried to go back further but pfr errored out for some reason

In Ryan’s case, it’s a lot easier to Chuck the ball downfield to Julio and Ridley than it would be the past two season with the WR’s that Carr has had. I’m not making a case for either player, just noting the stat can be out of context.

[blams]

In Ryan’s case, it’s a lot easier to Chuck the ball downfield to Julio and Ridley than it would be the past two season with the WR’s that Carr has had. I’m not making a case for either player, just noting the stat can be out of context.

Yes you're right also bibs mentioned that this may be due to Gruden's system

Just like that....the cap isn’t an issue!!!

The only guy listed above that I don’t restructure is Quinn. You want to be able to get out of that contract ASAP if he doesn’t perform next year, in which, he knows he might get cut, so maybe he actually does perform!!!!

I wonder if the bears can trade him to a 4-3 team (if we don't move to a 4-3)

He'll be an impact pass rusher in that scenario and likely worth the money

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[shorvath721]

I do think the 3-4 and 4-3 narrative is a little overblown when talking about Quinn. It seems like he has his hand in the ground on most passing situations? I think it’s more about him playing for paydays. Leave his contract alone, and let him prove last year was a fluke because of Injury. If he performs, well we can decide to keep him or cut him

[KG2TB]

The more I think about it, give me Carr over Ryan.

Also, I think Watson IF he’s traded (which is unlikely) will cost more than 3 1st. I’m guessing 4 or 5 minimum.

Think about it, if you’re the GM of the Texand you’re gonna let your franchise QB under contract go for 3 1st round picks to the bears? With Watson and the defense we have, those are all going to be late 1sts

[shorvath721]

Based on the recent rumors that Pace may be promoted, and yesterday’s continuous deflections in regards to Pace/Nagy contracts, I think there’s a good chance Pace was already extended and Nagy wasn’t. If that’s the case, I think there is less of a chance we trade future picks for a veteran QB. I think they will just address in free agency then.

[shorvath721]

The more I think about it, give me Carr over Ryan.

Also, I think Watson IF he’s traded (which is unlikely) will cost more than 3 1st. I’m guessing 4 or 5 minimum.

Think about it, if you’re the GM of the Texand you’re gonna let your franchise QB under contract go for 3 1st round picks to the bears? With Watson and the defense we have, those are all going to be late 1sts

100%...only chance you get Watson is with a pick acquired for trading Mack in this draft, as well as our 1st this year and more.

[Stunner]

https://twitter.com/pff_bears/status...215061505?s=21

[KG2TB]

https://twitter.com/pff_bears/status...215061505?s=21

Not surprising with a bad pass rush and injuries to JJ/skrine end of the year

[KG2TB]

And also EJ loafing it like none other

[La_bibbers]

For the record, Ryan really wouldn't be that bad for the cap. You can restructure him after 2021 to take off 11 mil of his cap hit down to 30, which isn't small, but not that big either for his position, then cut him in 2023 for only 8 mil in dead cap.

A Matt Ryan trade means he's the QB until at least 2023, or the next two seasons. The 3rd year would basically be a team option. That said, Derek Carr's contract is still better and he's younger, so of course, I'd take him over Ryan if we're talking return on a trade. I don't know why he wouldn't cost more though.

[Bainsy]

Because Nagy and Pace have 1 year to prove it. Nobody is saying Lance isnt a solid prospect or worth developing. But this team isnt taking a project player this year. They need to improve this team now. They are both on the hot seat.

I understand...But you can turn it around and say....Say they draft him for the sake of discussion and he plays right away and shows "flashes" of brilliance and all he needs is more time to develop, I can see a scenario where Pace sells it that way to ownership...
But it's mute point because he (Lance) will not fall to 20........And after the Mitch fiasco Pace will have a hard sell (ownership) to move up and grab him and giving away more future draft capital....

[La_bibbers]

Not surprising with a bad pass rush and injuries to JJ/skrine end of the year

I think it's the other way around. The pass rush wasn't great because the secondary wasn't very good. A lot of analytics are showing that coverage > pass rush these days

For example:

While PFF pass-rushing grades correlate with EPA allowed at an impressive -0.43 (better pass-rush yields smaller EPA), PFF coverage grades correlate at a rate almost double that of pass rush (-0.88). Correlations are similar when looking at other variables like yards per attempt.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-dat...ush-part-three

[blams]

I think Lance would make a ton of sense as a pick if you also acquire Ryan/Stafford , maybe even Carr

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