2021 Bears Off Season thread

[GeorgiaBear]

From what I've heard in the past though Carr tends to be an Alex Smith type check down passer which usually fails come postseason

I , of course, could be completely wrong about that

As I've mentioned a couple of times by now my opinion of Carr has been tainted by Raiders fans i know , which is an admittedly poor move on my part.

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Sounds like a lot of what you hear is bs. Carr was 7th in the NFL at 7.9 yards per attempt. Stop listening to meatheads.

[blams]

Derek carr was 15th in CAY/Cmp in 2020
26th in 2019
28th in 2018


Yikes

Isn't it concerning that 2 of the last 3 seasons he's been at the bottom of the barrel in competed air yards per pass completion . Whereas Stafford and Ryan are near the top of the league, aside from Stafford's outlier 2018 season.

Ryan was 3rd in 2020, Stafford 9th
Ryan was 7th in 2019, Stafford 2nd, Dak 3rd
Ryan was 8th 2018, Stafford 33rd (huh lmao)

I tried to go back further but pfr errored out for some reason

[La_bibbers]

Derek carr was 15th in CAY/Cmp in 2020
26th in 2019
28th in 2018


Yikes

That does scare me a looooooot. 2 of the last 3 seasons he's been at the bottom of the barrel in competed air yards per pass completion

Ryan was 3rd in 2020, Stafford 9th
Ryan was 7th in 2019, Stafford 2nd
Ryan was 8th 2018, Stafford 33rd (huh lmao)

I tried to go back further but pfr errored out for some reason

PFF seems to attribute that to Jon Gruden's system:

Carr will always be measured by his near-MVP season in 2016 when he finished with the third-best passing grade (91.7) on throws from a clean pocket while his 24 big-time throws ranked third among 36 qualifying quarterbacks. However, in the years since, Carr has failed to live up to the promise and production of that memorable 2016 season.

Though, in all fairness to the former second-rounder, the Raiders' current offense has asked him to get the ball out more quickly and efficiently than he was once used to.

Carr entered the league with exceptional arm talent; he posted the NFL's second-best deep-passing grade (96.2) and ranked seventh with 21 big-time throws on deep balls in 2016. He attempted 67 passes of 20-plus yards that season, compared to only 52 such pass attempts under Jon Gruden last season, and he ranked near the middle of the pack in passing grade on deep passes (90.1, 14th) and big-time throws (13, 20th) among 33 qualifiers in 2019.

Now that he's been asked to be more accurate and efficient in the Raiders' offense, Carr's 2019 season was actually an improvement in some critical areas.

In 2019, Carr finished behind Drew Brees with the second-highest adjusted completion percentage (82.3%), but he also maintained both his accuracy and efficiency when pushing the ball past the first-down line.

I don't think there should be many doubts about Carr's ability to push the ball down the field.

[blams]

PFF seems to attribute that to Jon Gruden's system:



I don't think there should be many doubts about Carr's ability to push the ball down the field.

That does make me a feel a bit better about it for sure


Ok, I'll concede on one thing and we all saw this coming:

I'd take Carr if they don't have to give up much.
I'd prefer Watson, then Dak, then Stafford, then Ryan but I'll take back preferring to tank with mitch lol



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[GeorgiaBear]

Aside from the QB topic something I think is important is pieces for the future basically guys I'd like to see on the team for the next 3-5 years.

Offense:

QB- No one
RB- Montgomery
WR- ARob, Mooney
TE- Kmet
OT- Leno (at RT eventually)
OG- Daniels, Whitehair
C- No one

DE- Nichols, Edwards (depending on the arrest)
NT- Goldman
OLB- Mack, Gipson
ILB- Smith
CB- Fuller, JJ
FS- Jackson
SS- No one

K- Santos
P- O'Donnell

Everyone else is either too old (Hicks) or unimportant to the future of the team.

[blams]

Aside from the QB topic something I think is important is pieces for the future basically guys I'd like to see on the team for the next 3-5 years.

Offense:

QB- No one
RB- Montgomery
WR- ARob, Mooney
TE- Kmet
OT- Leno (at RT eventually)
OG- Daniels, Whitehair
C- No one

DE- Nichols, Edwards (depending on the arrest)
NT- Goldman
OLB- Mack, Gipson
ILB- Smith
CB- Fuller, JJ
FS- Jackson
SS- No one

K- Santos
P- O'Donnell

Everyone else is either too old (Hicks) or unimportant to the future of the team.

You don't like Urban, Mustipher, Bars? Assume you're thoughts are they're best suited as backups. I've read Bars has short arms and that's why he hasn't been projected as a tackle .

What about Shelley's potential at nickel?

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[GeorgiaBear]

You don't like Urban, Mustipher, Bars? Assume you're thoughts are they're best suited as backups. I've read Bars has short arms and that's why he hasn't been projected as a tackle .

What about Shelley's potential at nickel?

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Yeah primarily talking about starters. All three of those guys are fine depth pieces. I'm mainly just projecting starters after Pace/Nagy get fired. Trying to analyze what the next regime will be left with. Not very high on Shelley or Vildor from what they have shown so far. Also sick of Skrine at nickel too. I miss Callahan aside from his injuries.

[blams]

Yeah primarily talking about starters. All three of those guys are fine depth pieces. I'm mainly just projecting starters after Pace/Nagy get fired. Trying to analyze what the next regime will be left with. Not very high on Shelley or Vildor from what they have shown so far. Also sick of Skrine at nickel too. I miss Callahan aside from his injuries.

Skrine is such a good tackler.


He's just bad in coverage, the most important thing for a defensive back

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[Stunner]

Another reason why Mack is top tier still

https://twitter.com/sethwalder/statu...275938306?s=21

[Kyben36]

What world is this?
Prescott costing just a 1st and 2nd? Nope.
Watson 2 first plus++ is realistic.
Stafford a 1st+ is realistic on a trade in division but not guna happen.
Carr for a 2nd? Don't get why people think he's available, or for that price. The Raiders are just guna trade a solid starter for a 2nd and enter a period of no QB? What's this logic?
Matt Ryan. There's no signal he's available. Just a 2nd? There'd be 15 teams lined up for that which is why that value is way too low.
Alex Smith? A 3rd? He's going to get released, no teams paying that.
Jimmy G. 4th to free? What world are we in? Maybe they cut him in some weird world. They've won at something like 80% when he starts and they have no one to replace him.
Wentz for a 5th? Wtf. We just paid a 4th for Nick Foles. Not reality.

Prescott still is in contract battles with the Cowboys, its unclear if they will keep him or not. He is also coming off a simi serious injury nearly alex smith esk (have to factor that in) I think he is surely worth less than Watson at this moment. how much is up for debate but its not like a 1st and 2nd is that far off of 2 first either (what we paid for jay). And you have to sign him to a huge deal too.

I agree on stafford.

Carr I think the Raiders could move on from. This is mostly speculation but I think most fans realize he is holding them back. I think there is a good chance that this year they trade up into the top 10 and draft a QB of the future. They need to because no matter how good anyone here thinks carr is he isnt a super bowl winning QB. I could easily see them move up for a guy like Wilson or Feilds. **** they signed Morriota to a big deal just last year.. your saying that wasnt a sign for distrust?

Ryan.... does anyone here know how old ryan is. He is 35 years old. Maybe they will get more. But I dont want to trade a ton for a 2 year rental on a QB set to make 41, 41.5 and 36 the next 3 years. And if the Falcons at 4 decide to move on who knows. Maybe somebody pays more for ryan. I know I would not. They backloaded the **** out of his deal and now if they want somebody to eat that money (in a current cap situation where the his contract is probably worth 23% of the team) Its kinda not realistic for them to keep him as a what 4 win team?

Alex Smith actually looked competent out there. IDK what they do. You can say he is going to get released but somebody was willing to trade for Foles. I could see this as a last ditch plan for the bears.

Jimmy G it depends on what the 49ers do. They could keep him. they could trade him. it could be like Cam and nobody will want him and they cut him. IDK. But I dont think Jimmy G is somebody a ton of teams will be going after. Very similar to Dalton IMO.

And Wentz.... They would be happy if you took Wentz new contract off their hands. If you didnt notice he go benched for a 2nd round QB that honestly isnt that good. next year if the first year of his new 4 year 126 mil deal. which btw has 106 mil in guaruntees. Meaning you would be absorbing a huge contract they have off the bench.

[Kyben36]

A couple of things....They are all (QB's) 2-3 years away when drafted with a very few exceptions. But today they are expected to play right away....Secondly this is the McCaskey's they fire people very reluctantly, only when it's WAY to late...

Because Nagy and Pace have 1 year to prove it. Nobody is saying Lance isnt a solid prospect or worth developing. But this team isnt taking a project player this year. They need to improve this team now. They are both on the hot seat.

[Kyben36]

My problem with Carr is you're committing to a guy that is a top 15,20 qb year to year without a big arm are high ceiling.

Giving up a lot for guaranteed mediocrity. Doesn't even have a lot of potential or anything like that.


I just don't see any reason to want him over Ryan, even if Ryan only has a year or two left.


Ryan is better than Brady and Brees at this point imo (those guys are terribly downfield now)




I'd heavily prefer Fitzpatrick as a bridge guy over Carr. It isn't worth committing to a guy that is OK.

Which is why I'd rather have a short term bridge deal for Mitch because it isn't any sort of futures deal.

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the one thing I like about Carr over Ryan is that his deal isnt killer. Ryan is in a backloaded as **** contract that has him due 41-41.5 and 36 the next 3 years.

Carr can basically be gotten out of if it doesnt work out. he has 2 years left and almost nothing guarunteed. In fact i wonder if the raiders dont cut him if they decide to go the QB route. Although I bet they find somebody to take him.

[Kyben36]

Who would you guys rather draft trusk or Jones? And why?


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Can I pass on both and draft Jammie Newman. in the 3rd.

Im really hesitant on Jones because of the lack of success of Tua who as a far superior prospect. And Trask resminds me of foles. will have a solid career if he is kept upright. again neither answer the QB question. In fact I doubt either are better than Mitch.

[Kyben36]

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/statu...182285317?s=21

kinda fallen out of love with Juju. He seems more focused on his Brand then his play. Compete oppsosite of Robinson IMO. Robinson is well worth the extra money and even if we could trade Robinson for a 2nd I would keep him and loose the pick.

Thats kinda a ballsy take I know.

[Kyben36]

Check my work - https://overthecap.com/calculator/chicago-bears/

before anyone asks, the calculator has already taken into account the 176 mil cap next year.

Restructure:
Mack, Fuller, Quinn, E-Jax, Leno, Whitehair, Massie, Goldman, Trevathan, Cohen

Cut:
Jimmy Graham, Akiem Hicks

Available cap:
69.91 mil

Re-sign: format = years/total value/AAV
WR Allen Robinson 5/90/18 (11 mil cap hit in 2020 if we use a similar structure to Amari Cooper's contract)
For the purposes of simplicity, we'll assume it's a flat cap rate for everyone else
DE Roy Robertson-Harris 3/18/6
K Cairo Santos 3/12/4
S Tashaun Gipson 2/6/3
DE Mario Edwards 2/6/3
P Pat O'Donnell 2/5/2.5
DE Brent Urban 1/2
S Deandre Houston-Carson 1/1.5
LS Patrick Scales 1/950 K
OG Alex Bars - ERFA tender 1/845 K

Key FAs: Mitch, Cordarrelle Patterson, Germain Ifedi, Deon Bush

Available cap:
35.11 Mil

Free Agency:
C Ben Garland 3/21/7
TE Richard Rodgers 3/12/4

Available cap: 24.15 mil

Draft: using PFF Draft sim https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator
Trade Down: Browns Trade 26 & 107 & 187 for 20
1st round: WR/RB/KR Kadarius Toney
2nd round: OT Liam Eichenberg
3rd round: QB Jamie Newman
4th Round: (Browns): CB Shakur Brown
Trade up: Saints trade 140 for 161, 200, 227
4th Round: (Saints): EDGE Deangelo Malone
6th Round: (Browns): TE Trey McKitty

Per spotrac: https://overthecap.com/draft/ those picks equate to just about $5.7 million in cap

Post June-1st:
Cut DB Buster Skrine (5 mil in savings)

Cap: Approx. 23 mil

Trade: 2022 1st round draft pick+ 2022 3rd round draft pick for QB Matt Ryan (adds 23 mil in cap)

QB: Ryan, Foles, Newman
RB: Montgomery, Cohen, Pierce
WR: A-Rob, Mooney, Toney, Miller, Ridley, Wims
TE: Kmet, Rodgers, McKitty
OT: Leno, Massie, Eichenberg
OG: Whitehair, Daniels, Bars
C: Garland, Mustapher

DE: Nichols, RRH, Edwards, Urban
NT: Goldman
Edge: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Malone
ILB: Roquan, Trevathan, Iyiegbuniwe
CB: Fuller, Johnson, Brown, Vildor, Roberson
S: E-Jax, Gipson, Houston-Carson, Lucas
ST: Santos, O'Donnell, Toney (KR/PR), Scales (LS)

Summation:
QB: We've added a pro bowl QB in Matt Ryan, sustained a backup in Foles, who is competent enough in the event that Ryan goes down for us to redshirt, hopefully a long-term option, in Jamie Newman
RB: We're a bit thin here after Montgomery, but whatever. Backup RB is much lower on the totem poll than most of our other holes.
WR: Need A-Rob. He's the security blanket on the offense. Between Mooney, Toney, and Cohen, there should be plenty of playmakers in the offense for Nagy to hopefully properly utilize.
TE: We replace Graham with Richard Rodgers, who is a perfectly competent #2 TE that will cost less than half of the price Graham did. We also add a late round TE as depth in McKitty.
O-line: I'll just cover the entire line in one fell swoop. We add a quality starting center in Ben Garland. We'll have a decision to make about which of our guards between Whitehair and Daniels move to the right side. I'm not too concerned personally. We also add a high round tackle to eventually replace Massie. Between Mustapher, Bars, and Eichenberg, it's the best our O-line depth will have looked in some time.

D-line: It sucks to lose Hicks, he's been one of the best players to watch during the Pace era, but he's had durability issues the last two seasons, and I just don't think he's worth that cap hit anymore. Fortunately, I think the rest of our young line is really good and deep anyway, and offers a lot of upside. In particular, Mario Edwards, who can take on a more expanded role. Urban is a quality player too, and was pretty instrumental in our run defense improvement the second half of the season. We also get Goldman back, who becomes the new leader for the group.
Edge: Basically the same group as last year, but we add another mid-round rookie to the fold instead of Mingo. Hopefully one of Gipson or Malone can stand out a bit.
ILB: Admittedly, not the best group after Roquan. Trevathan is unfortunately gonna be slotted in as a starter again. He's definitely a liability, but it's too late because Pace already gave him that dumb contract
CB: Brown should be good value in the 4th. We need to take CB seriously, especially in a division race with Aaron Rodgers. The hope here would be for Johnson and Brown to replace Fuller someday.
S: The safety group pretty much returns. Hopefully we have a D-Coordinator who can get the most out of Eddie again. Overall, I think that'll be the key to this defense returning to its elite form.

The one issue I have is Garland. And Thats ignoring pushing nearly 60 mil in cap into future years which could end in disaster if cap does not go up. Not to mention Ryans 40 mil deal next year too. If cap does not go up we are totally ****ed.

I think if we need to address anywhere its the Tackles. We have Cody. We have Daniels. I think we can survive with a guy like Mustapher.... or Barrs.... Or even a late draft pick if needed. we have already spent a ton on the Interior in terms of cap and draft capital, what we have ignored is Tackles.

I would rather figure out a way to get an OT in FA. Whether LT or RT.... Neither leno or massie should be starting anymore. Its clear to me that they suck, part of the reason our O line sucks is not tallent on the interior its tallent on the edge who cant set a damn edge to save their lives. If that means letting Roy Roberson Harris walk (who by the way is making way to much considering he was I think the fewest snap counts of the 3 and injured the final half of the year) And Drafting a Punter instead of Resigning Pat... I would be fine with that.

I mean RUSSELL OKUNG Would honestly make a huge upgrade over Leno. And I dont care what PFF says about Leno. Just watch the tape and realize how often he is on the ground. how often he is over powered and forced right into the QBs lap. How he never finds anyone to block on run plays. I am so tired of it. he is a panzy of an OL and does not deserve to be starting IMO.

Also if your keeping Robinson I think I would not draft a WR in the first. I would probably try to double tip of OTs. But thats just me. also that could allow you to keep Garland who i still beleive is a unnecessary convenience at this point.

Oh and the idea of pushing more of Quinns money back sickens me. He is going to be due 30 mil when we can finally cut his 35 year old ***.