Tigers 2021 Off Season

[hoog]

I know it is moving at a snails pace and as Al has said, they aren’t going to look at spending a lot of money but want to be opportunistic in the free agent market. However, they have to give AJ something credible to put on the field in his first year. This leads me to believe we are looking at one and two year contracts at best. We really need to fill some holes this year until the young guys are truly ready. So, sticking with what I feel Al’s plan will be, here is my best solution for the Tigers in 2021.

Free Agent Signings:

Kyle Schwarber- 2 years $15M: He is still only 27 years old so he could possibly fit into our plans beyond the 2 year contract. If he could play 1B, I probably would have paid him more. As he is, he is a power bat with a high on base average. He isn’t the best outfielder in the world but we know what that looks like in LF already. With Jones back, he can help him out a bit. We need his power and he is well worth the gamble after a down year.

Jurickson Profar- 2 years $13M: Another younger guy at only 27 who has shown power and versatility in his career. He also adds a higher on base percentage and some speed. AJ likes his versatility and this guy can play all over if needed but I see him as our 1B plug for now. Maybe in year 2 we move him around more but 1B is where I have him plugged in at right now.

Cesar Hernandez- 1 year $5-6M: He’s 30 years old so not ancient by any means. Sticking with the high on base theme this guy get there. He has a very high on base percentage for his career. He also has some power and is a great glove guy at 2B. He also has starts at 3B and SS but you don’t want him there long term but certainly to fill in on occasion if needed.

Brad Miller- 1 year $2.5M: He is 31 and I am probably overpaying a bit but I want this guy on my bench and filling in as a starter quite often. Another high on base guy, with some power, and a very good glove guy at 2B, SS, 1B, and OF. Versatility is what AJ likes so I am trying to provide that for him.

Jose Quintana- 2 years $20M: Here’s my splurge. He is a big innings eater, which we are going to need and he is lefty. He can fill what Boyd hasn’t been able to do since his big run two years ago. Go get me 6-7 innings a start and he is well worth the $10M a year, it’s only for 2 years until the young guys take hold of their spots, you can move Boyd (or slide him to BP) if he doesn’t perform again, and it’s not like we don’t have money to do it. Solid investment here for a 31 year old LH starter.

Chris Archer or Anthony DeSclafani- 1 year $3.5 to 4.5M: Both are in their early 30’s and can also be innings eaters. They both have the possibility of rebounding and becoming good trade bait as well. Archer is coming off a bit of an injury but is supposed to be ready at the start of the season. If not, then we can wait, he is still worth the investment. OR, they may suck and we can hide them in the pen or waive them for low money invested.

All these signings are low dollar and low years so we are protecting our payroll but giving us some fight for this year and next while we wait for the young core to get here. All could possibly become trade bait at the deadline as well since they are low dollar/low future investments for other teams. Also, as the young guys come up we aren’t heavily invested in guys blocking their spots so we can switch them out. These signings should be a win/win for the Tigers.

Here is how this will all shake out:

Cesar Hernandez- 2B (SH)
Jurickson Profar- 1B (SH)
Miguel Cabrera- DH (RH)
Kyle Schwarber- LF (LH)
Jeimer Candelario- 3B (SH)
Victor Reyes- RF (SH)
Willi Castro- SS (SH)
Jacoby Jones- CF (RH)
Jake Rogers- C (RH)

This is a much more pleasing lineup to watch than in the past years. Lots of on base potential up front of Miggy and some power behind him. Willi Castro and Schwarber are our defensive liabilities but putting Jones next to Schwarber will help and having two above average defenders next to Castro in Candy and Hernandez will help also. Otherwise, pretty solid defense in all areas. The lineup is very mobile with 5 switch hitters in it and players that can move up and down the lineup as needed. I know the catcher position isn’t ideal as there really isn’t a free agent to pick up that is better than what we have already. So, I went with defense in starting Rogers with hope he can at least supply a little power now and again. He is the best bet at handling our young pitchers.

Bench:
Harold Castro (LH) OF, 2B, 3B, SS
Brad Miller (LH) 2B, SS, 1B, OF
Niko Goodrum (SH) SS, 3B, 2B, 1B
Haas/Greiner (RH) C

Again, versatility is the word. Castro, Miller, and Goodrum all offer pretty good defense and a pretty good bat. AJ will be able to plug and play these guys all over. I can imagine we will have a fairly fluid starting lineup with these guys moving in and out of the lineup at will. As for the back up catcher, take your pick as neither is great but both very cheap. I seriously couldn’t find a FA catcher that I thought was better than these two at their projected cost.

Starting pitching:

Spencer Turnbull (RH)
Jose Quintana (LH)
*These are the only two I would say are locks for the starting rotation.

Casey Mize (RH)
Matt Boyd (LH)
Chris Archer (RH)- if healthy and ready to go from the start
*Pretty close to locks

Michael Fulmer (RH)
Tarik Skubal (LH)
*If they throw great in the spring they displace someone above, if they don’t claim a spot then Fulmer to the pen and Skubal to Toledo.

So, five of these guys will become our rotation. I broke it down into three categories but really, whomever throws the best in spring we take as our five. If a vet doesn’t do well, we put them in the pen and if a young guy doesn’t do well, we send them to Toledo. My best guess here is Turnbull, Quintana, Mize (I think he’s ready and has a better arsenal than Skubal), Boyd (one last try), and Archer (if healthy). Fulmer will go to the pen where he might just be an asset and Skubal

Bullpen:

Bryan Garcia (RH)
Gregory Soto (LH)
Buck Farmer (RH)
Daniel Norris (LH)
Jose Cisnero (RH)
*These guys are all locks and did very well for themselves last year.

Tyler Alexander (LH)
Joe Jimenez (RH)
Rony Garcia (RH)
Beau Burrows (RH)
John Schreiber (RH)
Kyle Funkhouser (RH)
Michael Fulmer (RH)- odd man out as starter
*The rest of the candidates.

We have a lot of candidates and quality candidates in my opinion. I looked at Shane Greene and other in FA but was pretty satisfied with what I had already. I see a Bryan Garcia/Gregory Soto closer combo used by AJ with Farmer, Cisnero, and possibly Jimenez as the set up guys. With really only 7 spots to fill and 5 pitchers being locked in my opinion, the final two will be a tough decision. I think you go with the two long arms in Fulmer (RH) and Alexander (LH) to fill out the pen. Look for Jimenez to be moved or sent to AAA (which we would probably lose him). The rest need to go down to Toledo and wait until the injury or unproductive pitchers need to be replaced.

Overall:

This would be a much better team in 2021 and maybe a little bit of winning will be infectious on the young guys. I didn't log jam anything up. There are a number of things that could happen, and I want to see Paredes starting at 2B/3B by the end of the season, Skubal in the rotation with possibly Manning/Faedo also (replacing Boyd and possibly Archer if traded), Riley Greene getting some time in the OF would be wonderful to see, and if Spencer Torkelson can get some time at 1B this year that would be wonderful as well. Looking at 2022 we have a lot of holes for the young guys to grab and become starters. The 2022 season is when I expect to get the full effect of our high end prospects and then leaking in year after year after that season. Good times are on the way!

[ahoda]

You think we see Greene in the MLB in 2021 Hoog?

[hoog]

You think we see Greene in the MLB in 2021 Hoog?

I do actually. I think they had to think long and hard not to bring him up for a little bit last year. This old argument of hanging on to their rights is just BS. If any team needed some excitement to their club, it's the frigg'n Tigers. I mean you have Avila out there saying their going to lay low and not do much this off season and the fans just aren't buying it. They need to see Paredes and Greene this year. Even half way through or after the trade deadline. This kid can play and if he is doing well wherever they place him (hoping Toledo so I can go see him), then bring the kid up. He seems very mature and savvy for his age. I think he could hold his own and then some. Same with Paredes. I thought given the circumstances he played very well defensively and I think he was figuring it out with the bat. He certainly didn't look out of place. I do think they need to get him over to 2B because I see the future as Candy 3B, Castro SS, Paredes 2B, and Tork at 1B unless Candy reverts back to the scared hitter he was a few years ago. Castro needs to improve a bit on his defense, Candy needs to stay steady from last year, and the other two just need to show they are MLB ready. Boom, there you have an infield of the future.

[LionsFan..LOL]

Some chatter out there of the Tigers re-uniting with Ricky P. If he can eat innings that's fine with me. He has to be better than Ivan Nova was anyway right?

[hoog]

Ricky is the ultimate innings eater if that is what the Tigers want and much better than Ivan for sure. When I heard this rumor I went to check up on Rick and the dude is 175+ innings of mid 4 ERA every year except for his Cy Young year where he was much better than mid 4 and the last two years where he was in the 5's. He will give you 30+ starts of mediocre pitching every year. Saying that, I am a Jersey guy too, so always rooted for Rick but never thought he matched his potential except for the CY year. He is only 32 so he should still have some baseball life left in him. I certainly wouldn't be excited but would welcome some innings being chewed up to save our pen a little bit. Some interesting note on him: He has only been a reliever in 4 games but has a 1.42 ERA, his first/second innings are some of his best (7th/8th are right there too which shows his finishing skills), and some of his best ERA versus teams are in our division: Minnesota (2.42), Cleveland (2.46), Chicago (3.18), KC (3.24). SO, he does fit the Tigers but maybe as a reliever or swing man?

[rocket]

Nice post, hoog

[GuySir]

I want nothing to do with Schwarber

[GasMan]

Another depressing offseason when we should start spending

[LionsFan..LOL]

The lack of posting kinds confirms that too. Sad but it feels like all the excitement regarding the Tigers, at least for me, was largely drained by the spending comments a few years back. Sure, there are prospects to get excited about, and when they debut they will garner attention (see Casey Mize) but largely the Tigers feel like an afterthought. An afterthought mind you in a city where all 4 teams are utterly awful and the college counterparts, at least on the football field, are just as flaccid.

[GasMan]

The lack of posting kinds confirms that too. Sad but it feels like all the excitement regarding the Tigers, at least for me, was largely drained by the spending comments a few years back. Sure, there are prospects to get excited about, and when they debut they will garner attention (see Casey Mize) but largely the Tigers feel like an afterthought. An afterthought mind you in a city where all 4 teams are utterly awful and the college counterparts, at least on the football field, are just as flaccid.

I get that there are concerns about losing money without fans but with vaccines started and an eventual end to the pandemic in sight, you would think this would be a great buy low environment. Fans have been patient and were willing to buy into the suck for prospects game but at some point they’re just gonna be wasting those same prospects service time. At this point I have no plans to give the Tigers money until they spend some of it on the field.

[hoog]

The lack of leadership and general lack of attention/excitement to the team in general by Avila and the new Ilitch, just isn't going unnoticed by people. IMO, they lucked into a great hire in AJ then they just disappeared. No real fanfare, no excitement from the top guys, and absolutely no help given to AJ to succeed. This club just looks uninterested and doesn't care about this season. Does it really care about later seasons or is the young Ilitch going to show he gives a crap? I just don't know what the direction is for this team. I was excited about the manager hire and the young guys but now it's flat lined.

[ahoda]

They lost a ton of money due to covid. THere was no chance they spent any this off season.

[mark1125]

They lost a ton of money due to covid. THere was no chance they spent any this off season.

Ugh......sad but true but c'mon Al. You can't beat $1.5 million for Casali? DO we really have to watch Greiner? Hasse? garneau? All are hot garbage all day long.

Grossman is the BIG signing. Going to be another **** show with dumpster diving Al at the helm.

[ahoda]

Ugh......sad but true but c'mon Al. You can't beat $1.5 million for Casali? DO we really have to watch Greiner? Hasse? garneau? All are hot garbage all day long.

Grossman is the BIG signing. Going to be another **** show with dumpster diving Al at the helm.

I'd rather Rogers get the lions share over Casali

[hoog]

I really don't care about the catching situation other than get the best guy to call a game for these young guys. If that is Rogers and he bats .200 then so be it. We have some good young offensive catchers coming up in the next few years so they can take over once these pitchers are settled in.

Grossman is fine for me right now, good OB% with some power/speed, fine. Now lets get Profar and some of the others I have listed on the first post that are available to fill in. We obviously aren't goping to go big so get some fill in's on short term contracts that are tradeable if they do well. I'm fine with that this year, but in 2022, we better go all out to fill in where we don't have a young guy.