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  1. #1231
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    mathematically, bottom 5 still ideal for bottom 4, even 6 gives you an outside shot. odds for no.1 still bad for everyone. but that's just long run probability. anything can happen if you draw once.
    Last edited by ecart; 04-09-2021 at 12:10 PM.

  2. #1232
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    Top 4 picks are all determined by the lottery balls. Odds are flattened from previous years. After the Top 4, rest of draft is based on reverse standings. Here is a link show the odds if the season ended today: http://www.tankathon.com/

    Raptors are now tied with OKC I believe for 7th worst record. 29% chance to land in Top 4, 6.7% chance at Top 1.
    Thank you, I appreciate you.

    Iím trying to play the draft out in my mind. Minni & Cleveland likely wonít pick Mobley as neither team needs a C. I donít think Orlando would pick a C either being that they have Carter jr, and Bamba. OKC just signed a young promising C in Moses Brown who I think has a chance at being a pretty good big man in this league. My Rockets have woods, we really need to draft perimeter players in Houston. Detroit could very likely pick Mobley thatís like the only button feeder I worry about going after him. Itís not impossible for us to land Mobley. I know itís not likely, but there is a chance.
    Last edited by smith&wesson; 04-09-2021 at 12:14 PM.

  3. #1233
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith&wesson View Post
    Thank you, I appreciate you.

    Iím trying to play the draft out in my mind. Minni & Cleveland likely wonít pick Mobley as neither team needs a C. I donít think Orlando would pick a C either being that they have Carter jr, and Bamba. OKC just signed a young promising C in Moses Brown who I think has a chance at being a pretty good big man in this league. My Rockets have woods, we really need to draft perimeter players in Houston. Detroit could very likely pick Mobley thatís like the only button feeder I worry about going after him. Itís not impossible for us to land Mobley. I know itís not likely, but there is a chance.
    Mobley could play PF. Minny is one of those few teams where it would make sense. But they're not going to go for a project cause of KAT. So you're prob right.

    I think Orlando is going to pick a PG, Weltman likes having a PG to speed up development. I think they've given up on Bamba.

    Moses Brown was a good find but he's not mobile enough to be a starting 5 on a good team. OKC is just going to draft BPA IMO. SGA is great but I think Presti still wants to find his guy.

    Rockets i think are going for a wing.

    Detroit is a wild card. Their young core is still pretty bad. I still think they're going to BPA.

  4. #1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    Mobley could play PF. Minny is one of those few teams where it would make sense. But they're not going to go for a project cause of KAT. So you're prob right.

    I think Orlando is going to pick a PG, Weltman likes having a PG to speed up development. I think they've given up on Bamba.

    Moses Brown was a good find but he's not mobile enough to be a starting 5 on a good team. OKC is just going to draft BPA IMO. SGA is great but I think Presti still wants to find his guy.

    Rockets i think are going for a wing.

    Detroit is a wild card. Their young core is still pretty bad. I still think they're going to BPA.
    Way to burst my bubble trace lol

    Yeah Detroit and OKC likely go with BPA. Iím hoping they land 1&2 and take Cade or Suggs. Iím not that high on Suggs myself but I know he raised his value in the tournament.

    Houston is most def going for a perimeter player, no doubt.

    Minni does need a PF, I was hoping the same thing would happen as last season when they passed on Wiseman for Edwards, which seems to have worked out ok for them.

    I know itís wishful thinking, and a long shot, but if the ping pong balls land in our favour ya never know.
    Last edited by smith&wesson; 04-09-2021 at 12:54 PM.

  5. #1235
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith&wesson View Post
    Way to burst my bubble trace lol

    Yeah Detroit and OKC likely go with BPA. Iím hoping they land 1&2 and take Cade or Suggs. Iím not that high on Suggs myself but I know he raised his value in the tournament.

    Houston is most def going for a perimeter player, no doubt.

    Minni does need a PF, I was hoping the same thing would happen as last season when they passed on Wiseman for Edwards, which seems to have worked out ok for them.

    I know itís wishful thinking, and a long shot, but if the ping pong balls land in our favour ya never know.
    I think what partially excites me about this draft is that plans B, C and D are exciting too. As long as they donít go way off board...

    Moody and Kispert donít really excite me mind you. Kispertís stock seems to be falling beyond where we are likely to draft though

  6. #1236
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith&wesson View Post
    Way to burst my bubble trace lol

    Yeah Detroit and OKC likely go with BPA. Iím hoping they land 1&2 and take Cade or Suggs. Iím not that high on Suggs myself but I know he raised his value in the tournament.

    Houston is most def going for a perimeter player, no doubt.

    Minni does need a PF, I was hoping the same thing would happen as last season when they passed on Wiseman for Edwards, which seems to have worked out ok for them.

    I know itís wishful thinking, and a long shot, but if the ping pong balls land in our favour ya never know.
    I think a lot of GM's careers are on the line with this one. I don't think a lot of them want to risk it on Mobley. So if you're high on Mobley, that is is your copium.

  7. #1237
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    I think what partially excites me about this draft is that plans B, C and D are exciting too. As long as they donít go way off board...

    Moody and Kispert donít really excite me mind you. Kispertís stock seems to be falling beyond where we are likely to draft though
    I just don't want another undersized guard or a raw prospect again. I don't know why people have a fetish for duo PG lineups but people are already floating the idea of Flynn+FVV. Shudders.

  8. #1238
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    Who is looking like the pick around our range?

  9. #1239
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    Quote Originally Posted by smith&wesson View Post
    Thank you, I appreciate you.

    Iím trying to play the draft out in my mind. Minni & Cleveland likely wonít pick Mobley as neither team needs a C. I donít think Orlando would pick a C either being that they have Carter jr, and Bamba. OKC just signed a young promising C in Moses Brown who I think has a chance at being a pretty good big man in this league. My Rockets have woods, we really need to draft perimeter players in Houston. Detroit could very likely pick Mobley thatís like the only button feeder I worry about going after him. Itís not impossible for us to land Mobley. I know itís not likely, but there is a chance.
    I could see OKC taking Mobley.

  10. #1240
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    http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

    I think Toronto can catch up to 5 maybe.

  11. #1241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps18-19 Champ View Post
    Who is looking like the pick around our range?
    Barnes, Bouknight, Jalen Johnson, Keon Johnson, Kuminga etc. After top 4, it's a **** show.

  12. #1242
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    I think a lot of GM's careers are on the line with this one. I don't think a lot of them want to risk it on Mobley. So if you're high on Mobley, that is is your copium.
    Fingers crossed.

    I think Mobley would be a nice target for us. But Iím ok with going bpa. I just donít want another combo guard like you mentioned. The back court of the future is already set with FVV-Trent jr.

    I rarely like to go with needs as a posed to picking the bpa, but our 1 through 4 is pretty set already. Even if the big man is a project, at least we have someone to develop at the 5 instead of over paying for a mediocre big in free agency.

  13. #1243
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecart View Post
    http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

    I think Toronto can catch up to 5 maybe.
    Two games against the Nets, two games against the toe nail Clippers, one against the Jazz. Those are all scheduled losses IMO.

  14. #1244
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    I could see OKC taking Mobley.
    They very well could. Letís hope he some how lands to us. But if he doesnít itís not doom and gloom, we can go with bpa, but yeah Mobley is first on my wish list. However wishful.

  15. #1245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps18-19 Champ View Post
    Who is looking like the pick around our range?
    We are most likely to fall in the 7-9 range. Some lottery luck or a small fall in the standings would help draft higher.

    Lottery Luck: Top 4 right now appears to be Cunningham, Suggs, Mobley, Green

    5 is most commonly Kuminga.

    6-9 is a variety of candidates: Keon Johnson, Scottie Barnes, Moses Moody are commonly in this range

    James Bouknight, Davion Mitchell (recent surge up the draft board), Corey Kispert, Jalen Johnson, Ziaire Williams and Kai Jones all find there way mixed with the above names in various mocks.

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