Offseason 2020-21: Where are we going?

[RedSoxtober]

Now that we know who the manager will be, a few random ideas for the upcoming offseason...

I saw recently that Corey Kluber spends the offseason in New England, close to his wife's family I think. Given his recent injury history, I wonder if he'd take a pillow contract or short money to rebuild value. $15M/1yr or $18M/2yr (1yr @ $15M, $3M buyout on a $15M second year)? If healthy, he'd help sustain the staff through the challenging first few months and the potential for Sale, Kluber, EdRo, Eovaldi as your top four would take a lot of pressure off guys like Houck. It's also a nice bridge to see how those guys continue to develop at the MLB level.

To JBJ or not to JBJ? He's projected at something like $18M/2yr and for that I would bring him back. He's never going to hit with any consistency but his defense is worth the money and a 2yr deal would provide a good bridge to Jaren Duran.

I'm not sure what to make of all the talk about Lindor. His addition would make for quite an interesting set of options. Chief among the alternatives: Bogaerts to 3B, Lindor at SS, and Devers to 1B. Sorry, Raffy, but your defense is simply too inconsistent to play the hot corner every day. Pick up 1B this winter and get ready for a new role.

I get the excitement around DJ LeMahieu. It'd be nice to steal the Yankees' most important hitter the last season but I'm not sure that the tenure will be right. At some point in the next three years (guestimate), Jeter Downs needs to debut and help justify the Mookie trade.

Speaking of inconsistent, Michael Chavis seems to have found a niche on the "change of scenery" ballot. The team obviously does not have enough confidence in him to give him a regular job. It's not hard to see why: defensively he hurts you at all the positions that he plays. Circling back to Duran, he needs a 40-man spot and Chavis... well, Chavis doesn't. Non-tender candidate if he's not traded.

Dustin Pedroia, however, is a straight outright/DFA candidate. That might be a touch pill to swallow for everyone involved but Pedroia is simply never going to play major league baseball again. 2021 is the last year of his contract and now his roster spot is more valuable that the dollars that John Henry will pay him to watch Red Sox games on TV. The hope is that they negotiate a settlement for him to retire (since his deal was supposedly constructed to avoid hurting the team financially) but this will be the first difficult, unpopular but absolutely necessary decision of Bloom's tenure.

[RedSoxtober]

Second baseman Tetsuto Yamada ostensibly became the highest-paid player in the history of the Yakult Swallows, Kyodo News (Japanese) reported in its online edition Tuesday. The 27-year-old is the only player in NPB history to hit .300 with 30 home runs and 30 steals more than once in his career.

He accomplished the feat for the third time in 2018. In 2019, he went 33-for-36 as a base stealer with 35 home runs, but only batted. 271. Despite that slight hiccup, Yamada received a 70 million yen pay increase for 2020 after turning down a multiyear contract. This opens the door for him to file for domestic free agency next November [2020] or even ask the Swallows to post him.

As Japan’s premier second baseman since he broke out in the second half of the 2014 season at the age of 21, some have wondered if Yamada might ask Yakult to post him, and he did express some positive feelings about such a move. Since then, the lingering effects of being hit by a pitch in August 2016, and a quiet multiyear commitment to the team muted talk of a major league move.

Source: here

Maybe not coincidental that "the Mike Trout of Japanese baseball" took a one-year deal and set up to be posted or declared a FA when the Yankees need a 2B? Could be an interesting option for the Red Sox as well.

[RedSoxtober]

Signings like this seem to be Bloom's specialty. But why? It mostly lead to the disastrous rotation and BP that the Sox had this year. The only "hit" was Phillips Valdez, and even he had significantly better results than his peripherals suggest (ie., in line for major regression).

[factnotopinion7]

Signings like this seem to be Bloom's specialty. But why? It mostly lead to the disastrous rotation and BP that the Sox had this year. The only "hit" was Phillips Valdez, and even he had significantly better results than his peripherals suggest (ie., in line for major regression).

Why are we becoming a small market small ball franchise? The Red Sox should have the highest payroll and be out there getting the best players on the market every year...Throwing Betts away is going to hurt them for a long time...the guy was a generational talent...

[bagwell368]

Why are we becoming a small market small ball franchise? The Red Sox should have the highest payroll and be out there getting the best players on the market every year...Throwing Betts away is going to hurt them for a long time...the guy was a generational talent...

Owners want to trim their sails money wise. Problem is unlike in Theo's time (at times) the farm is weak. So you'd have to spend in the top 3 to compete. Question is can we hang onto the good players we have now while we wait for 3+ years to produce talent via the draft. Don't see us near the top until '24 or later.

[RedSoxtober]

Owners want to trim their sails money wise. Problem is unlike in Theo's time (at times) the farm is weak. So you'd have to spend in the top 3 to compete. Question is can we hang onto the good players we have now while we wait for 3+ years to produce talent via the draft. Don't see us near the top until '24 or later.

Yeah, basically agree. The team pushed the max tax level and the penalties were unsustainable. Not only was the 'luxury tax' money too high but it cost them in both draft and international signings. Dombrowski followed his typical pattern (over-investing in starting pitchers, bargain hunting RP, trying to buy a few marquee position players all at the expense of top prospects used to bring them in) and left an empty farm and an empty wallet. We could not undo the mistakes (Eovaldi, Price, maybe Sale) so we had to avoid salary increase. Trading Betts was a way to do both.

I disagree with the length to rebuild, however. The Sox were terrible in 2020 but that has a lot to do with terrible pitching. A short-money SP signing that fits in the 2-4 mold could help hold the fort while Sale returns. EdRo should gain strength as the year unfolds. Houck will pick up the slack from Eovaldi (BP?) and the Sox might have unlocked something with Pivetta by returning him to his early career mechanics. It's hard to know if any of these will be dominant but it's a group with several candidates to be very good.

Cora will have to be a baseball whisperer with some of the Latin players that he encouraged in his first stint, Devers in particular.

IMO, they might be more focused on 2022 for truly competing but could be relevant this year if things go well.

[RedSoxtober]

A few days old but...

The Red Sox have added an intriguing power-hitting outfield prospect.

Michael Gettys, a second-round pick of the Padres in the 2014 MLB Draft, has signed a minor-league deal with the Sox. The 25-year-old spent all of the 2019 season in Triple-A, slugging 31 home runs in 128 games for El Paso.

The knock on Gettys has been his inability to make consistent contact, striking out 168 times in 507 at-bats during his last full season.

weei.com

[factnotopinion7]

Have they changed their thinking?
The last few days you hear about them having interest in Bryant (Cubs) , Pueg(Dodgers) and Happ... Perhaps they are going to be major players again... we shall see...but they have been mentioned in every trade and free agent discussion the last few days...

[RedSoxtober]

John Henry's siip up was telling last year -- the practice of big market teams is to get under the CBT every three years or so in order to reset the penalties. They did that in 2020 and are now in a better position to build a sustainable contender.

I was snarky about some of Bloom's early moves because he was pretty focused on picking up SP and RP with almost no success in MLB. But I also get it: a contending team needs depth, and depth can protect high ceiling prospects from being rushed to MLB. I don't actually mind those types of pickups... as long as that's not the only thing that's going on.

Virtual Winter Meetings are starting and it'll be see how things proceed. Lots of local media chatter about LeMahieu. I have my doubts. They picked up a few options and the recent trade for Koss suggests that they're getting MIF depth. I won't be shocked if their money is more focused on a right handed OF and SP. That's my personal hope anyway.

[RedSoxtober]

In case you missed them, recent arb signings and the like

• Matt Barnes, $4.5M/1yr
• Kevin Pllaweski, $1.6M/1yr
• Austin Brice, $870k/1yr
• Ryan Brasier, $1.25M/1yr
• Eduardo Rodrigues, $8.5M/1yr

Notably missing is Devers. His characteristically poor start makes his first arbitration case a little weird. Will he be more like Bogaerts ($4.5M) or Betts ($10.5)?

They also swapped lottery tickets with the Rockies, sending Yoan Aybar (OF converted to RP with a mid-90s FB) for Christian Koss. Koss was a 2019 MiLB all star but in a ridiculous hitters' league so it's hard to judge the stat line. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster.

With all that said, the Sox are just a hair under $171M against the CBT, leaving $37M AAV available.

[factnotopinion7]

ESPN seems to think Marcell Ozuna signs with the Red Sox, even with JD under contract for 2 more years. We shall see.

[RedSoxtober]

The Red Sox have announced they signed outfielder Hunter Renfroe to a one-year deal. The agreement will pay Renfroe $3.1 million for 2021.

Here is the release sent out by the team regarding the 28-year-old, who played last season with the Rays:

Renfroe, 28, hit at least 25 home runs in three consecutive seasons with the San Diego Padres from 2017-19. Acquired by Tampa Bay on December 6, 2019, he hit .156 (19-for-122) with 13 extra-base hits—five doubles and eight home runs—and 22 RBI in 42 games for the Rays in 2020, making 32 starts in right field, one at first base, and one at designated hitter. He then appeared in 12 postseason games for the American League champions, going 4-for-23 (.174) with two home runs and a double.

A right-handed hitter, Renfroe set career highs in home runs (33), runs scored (64), extra-base hits (53), walks (46), and games played (140) for the Padres in 2019. He was also a finalist for the 2019 Rawlings Gold Glove Award in right field, recording 13 outfield assists, tied with Bryce Harper for the most in the NL. That season, his 23 defensive runs saved tied Cody Bellinger for second most among major league outfielders.

Selected 13th overall by San Diego in the first round of the 2013 June Draft, Renfroe has hit .228 (330-for-1,445) with 97 home runs and 226 RBI in 432 major league games over five seasons with the Padres (2016-19) and Rays (2020). He has appeared in three games at Fenway Park, going 4-for-11 with two doubles, two home runs, and five RBI. His two home runs came in the Rays’ 17-8 win over the Red Sox on August 13, 2020.

weei.com

The right-handed bat makes sense and Refroe could be a decent buy-low guy if he bounces back to his 2018-19 form. I wonder about his role, though. Does he go to RF and bump Verdugo to CF? Maybe go to CF himself? Bump Benintendi from LF with Beni moving on in a trade for pitching?

[RedSoxtober]

^^ Asked and answered, apparently.

[blamelackluster]

Hmm. Interesting. Why didn't I see this post before? I definitely have much to say!

[RedSoxtober]

According to former MLB GM Jim Duquette, the Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays – a sleeper team – are all in the mix for starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi.

With so many teams showing interest in the 30-year-old right-hander, Duquette believes a multi-year deal is likely.


Odorizzi has spent the last three seasons in Minnesota, but made just four starts and pitched a total of 13.2 innings last year due to injuries – which included a blister on his throwing hand and taking a line drive off the chest from Alex Gordon.

The year prior, Odorizzi was an All-Star for the first time and struck out a career-high 178 batters in 159 innings pitched while finishing with a 3.51 ERA and 15-7 record. He had an ERA+ of 129 and a FIP of 3.36.

All aforementioned teams have been linked to multiple pitchers on the market. The Mets, Angels and Padres have all been linked to top free-agent pitcher Trevor Bauer, so Odorizzi could be a contingency plan for those teams.

weei.com