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  1. #1
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    QBR and QBR leaders

    Does these 2 combined help tell the best story of who is having the best season? Top 5 for the most part is pretty similar in both.

    QBR leaders

    Rodgers-85.5
    Mahomes-84.9
    Allen-82.5
    Tanny- 82.3
    Carr-80.9
    Brees-80-8
    FitzMagic-80.8
    Wilson-80.7
    Bake-76.7


    QBrate

    Wilson-119
    rodgers-113
    carr-113
    tanny-112
    mahomes-109
    watson-108
    herbert-108
    brees-105
    allen-105
    brady-102

  2. #2
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    I feel QB rating is affected WAY too much by yards per pass.

    I've seen QBs have less TDs, less yards, lower completion %, and more interceptions than another QB, but have a higher rating because they averaged like 1.2 more yards per pass. it's pretty silly

  3. #3
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    Football Outsiders DVOA top 10 with (QBR) and [Rating]

    01 Tannehill (4) [4]
    02 Mahomes (2) [5]
    03 Carr (6) [3]
    04 Allen (3) [9]
    05 Wilson (5) [1]
    06 Watson (13) [6]
    07 Herbert (12) [7]
    08 Rodgers (1) [2]
    09 Brady (20) [10]
    10 Brees (8) [8]


    DVOA is probably the best to go by, since QBR and Rating don't really adjust well for strength of opponent. QBs that do well against bad teams can show a high QBR or Rating.
    Dak: 15,778 @ 65.8%, 7.6 per att, 97+21 TD, 36 INT+31 FMB, 97.0 Rate
    Wentz: 14,191 @ 63.8%, 6.9 per att, 97+3 TD, 35 INT+48 FMB, 92.7 Rate

    2020:
    Dak: 1188 @ 67.1%, 8.3 per att, 5 TD, 2 (1.4%) INT, 98.5 Rate 76.7 QBR
    Wentz: 737 @ 59.8%, 5.6 per att, 3 TD, 6 INT (4.5%), 63.9 Rate 35.5 QBR


    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    I'll leave PSD if Foles isn't the starter in Jax (or elsewhere) next year.
    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by basch152 View Post
    I feel QB rating is affected WAY too much by yards per pass.

    I've seen QBs have less TDs, less yards, lower completion %, and more interceptions than another QB, but have a higher rating because they averaged like 1.2 more yards per pass. it's pretty silly
    That and comp%. Certain QB play styles can play like **** and still never dip below an 85 passer rating because of easy short passes that their playmakers can flip into gains that boost YPA.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    Football Outsiders DVOA top 10 with (QBR) and [Rating]

    01 Tannehill (4) [4]
    02 Mahomes (2) [5]
    03 Carr (6) [3]
    04 Allen (3) [9]
    05 Wilson (5) [1]
    06 Watson (13) [6]
    07 Herbert (12) [7]
    08 Rodgers (1) [2]
    09 Brady (20) [10]
    10 Brees (8) [8]


    DVOA is probably the best to go by, since QBR and Rating don't really adjust well for strength of opponent. QBs that do well against bad teams can show a high QBR or Rating.
    Not saying qbr or rating are better but I'm not a huge fan of dvoa for individual players. From a team perspective, I think it's a super valuable tool. But for individuals, they dont really make any attempt to divy out "credit" for an individual player. That is one thing I like about QBR, but it's far from perfect.

    Individual DVOA, espeically for QBs, doesnt credit an OL for blocking for 8 seconds or ding an OL that instantly allows a guy through. Likewise, phenomenal wr's or wr's with great YAC skills "credit" the QB in DVOA quite a bit too.

    I dont think it's useless, and the schedule adjustments is a nice addition as an input, but I definitely don't think it should be used individually alone as gospel. Using all 3 plus just the eye test is probably the best way. But we are all obsessed with ranking things that we think we need a stat to definitively tell us who's 1, 2, 3 and so on.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Individual DVOA, espeically for QBs, doesnt credit an OL
    Maybe read: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
    Dak: 15,778 @ 65.8%, 7.6 per att, 97+21 TD, 36 INT+31 FMB, 97.0 Rate
    Wentz: 14,191 @ 63.8%, 6.9 per att, 97+3 TD, 35 INT+48 FMB, 92.7 Rate

    2020:
    Dak: 1188 @ 67.1%, 8.3 per att, 5 TD, 2 (1.4%) INT, 98.5 Rate 76.7 QBR
    Wentz: 737 @ 59.8%, 5.6 per att, 3 TD, 6 INT (4.5%), 63.9 Rate 35.5 QBR


    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    I'll leave PSD if Foles isn't the starter in Jax (or elsewhere) next year.
    "Hater" is a term used by weak minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
    -Scott van Pelt

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    Football Outsiders DVOA top 10 with (QBR) and [Rating]

    01 Tannehill (4) [4]
    02 Mahomes (2) [5]
    03 Carr (6) [3]
    04 Allen (3) [9]
    05 Wilson (5) [1]
    06 Watson (13) [6]
    07 Herbert (12) [7]
    08 Rodgers (1) [2]
    09 Brady (20) [10]
    10 Brees (8) [8]


    DVOA is probably the best to go by, since QBR and Rating don't really adjust well for strength of opponent. QBs that do well against bad teams can show a high QBR or Rating.
    so carr is top 3 in 2 of the stats and top 5 in all 3....................................... what a ****ing bum who is a dink and dunker but has a ypa of 8.3

    carr and stafford are the 2 most underrated QBs in the nfl

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    so carr is top 3 in 2 of the stats and top 5 in all 3....................................... what a ****ing bum who is a dink and dunker but has a ypa of 8.3

    carr and stafford are the 2 most underrated QBs in the nfl
    YPA doesn't tell you anything about how far a QB is throwing, YAC can make a dink and dunker have a high YPA. But Stafford is top 10 in IAY (intended air yards per pass).

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    YPA doesn't tell you anything about how far a QB is throwing, YAC can make a dink and dunker have a high YPA. But Stafford is top 10 in IAY (intended air yards per pass).
    give me the guy in the top 5 in all 3 of those stats with the ypa over 8.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    YPA doesn't tell you anything about how far a QB is throwing, YAC can make a dink and dunker have a high YPA. But Stafford is top 10 in IAY (intended air yards per pass).


    keep sticking with your eye test.... carr is right next to mahomes in front of guys like brees/ben on this list while cousins is top 2

    what a great but stupid stat... again give me the smart QB who understands the talent in trusting his team and making the smart play
    Last edited by More-Than-Most; 10-26-2020 at 09:40 PM.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    keep sticking with your eye test
    I will, and I've said Stafford was underrated for years, he just doesn't win big games. It's not his fault he got drafted by such an inept franchise though.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    DVOA is probably the best to go by, since QBR and Rating don't really adjust well for strength of opponent.
    Maybe read: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2020

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    Did you read? Read the 2nd paragraph in limitations. It's basically says exactly what I'm saying, only in reference to RB. They specifically say, for example, 2014 Marshawn Lynch DVOA measures 2014 Marshawn Lynch, behind the 2014 Seahawks OL with 2014 Russ at qb in 2014 Bevel's system. And the 2nd paragraph beyond that talks about how they can't seperate WR from QB but they specifically say it's very clear in their regression analysis that both play a big part in completing a pass, but it's nearly impossible with just play by play data to mathematically decipher how much to attribute to who.

    And that's exactly the flaw with individual DVOA. And I think alot of stats to an extent sort of miss alot of the contextual stuff. Like throwing a few yards short of the marker on 3rd down is probably not a great idea. However, throwing it short of the marker to a tightly covered TE with no RAC skills is alot dumber than throwing a WR screen to the edge where you have blockers to say Tyreke Hill.

    And that's some of the stuff that the stats miss out on. We've gotten great at calculating stuff like seperation and expected completion percentages and all of that stuff, but the contextual stuff is still missing. But DVOA in particular really peels out any sort of teammate context. They do a solid job of providing opponent context, but teammate context is super important.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Did you read? Read the 2nd paragraph in limitations. It's basically says exactly what I'm saying, only in reference to RB. They specifically say, for example, 2014 Marshawn Lynch DVOA measures 2014 Marshawn Lynch, behind the 2014 Seahawks OL with 2014 Russ at qb in 2014 Bevel's system. And the 2nd paragraph beyond that talks about how they can't seperate WR from QB but they specifically say it's very clear in their regression analysis that both play a big part in completing a pass, but it's nearly impossible with just play by play data to mathematically decipher how much to attribute to who.

    And that's exactly the flaw with individual DVOA. And I think alot of stats to an extent sort of miss alot of the contextual stuff. Like throwing a few yards short of the marker on 3rd down is probably not a great idea. However, throwing it short of the marker to a tightly covered TE with no RAC skills is alot dumber than throwing a WR screen to the edge where you have blockers to say Tyreke Hill.

    And that's some of the stuff that the stats miss out on. We've gotten great at calculating stuff like seperation and expected completion percentages and all of that stuff, but the contextual stuff is still missing. But DVOA in particular really peels out any sort of teammate context. They do a solid job of providing opponent context, but teammate context is super important.
    It's almost like you have to watch the players rather than let a calculator tell you what's good/bad.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by manbearchef View Post
    It's almost like you have to watch the players rather than let a calculator tell you what's good/bad.
    Using both tools is the best way to go. I doubt very much that people who argue one player over another arenít watching them play.

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