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  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Would like to see some data to back that up. I'd guess the odds in either case are higher to convert with a pass than run. In this offense, I'd put it close to a guarantee though. I don't blame Nagy for not trusting the run.
    That's a perfectly fair point, no argument there from me. I personally just feel that on 3rd & 2, it would be a better idea to go with a run in that situation for a few reasons. One is the most obvious, in that it allows the time to run, another is that Monty seemed to have some decent runs, in terms of yardage gained at least, prior to that 3rd down, so I figured why not ride the relatively 'hot hand'. Also 3rd & 2 is def. more than 'convertable' (idk even know if that is a real word tbh but hopefully that gives an idea of what I mean regardless) and even a poor running offense, such as the Bears have so far, should be able to get given the late game situation with the defense probably a bit tired in general after going at it for nearly a full game by that point.

    But as you and others have alluded to, it is one of those 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' situations where if the pass play worked, nobody here would be complaining, or at least the vast majority wouldn't, and same with a running play where if it did not work then yea, it looks bad too.

  2. #842
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blah Blah Blah View Post
    That's a perfectly fair point, no argument there from me. I personally just feel that on 3rd & 2, it would be a better idea to go with a run in that situation for a few reasons. One is the most obvious, in that it allows the time to run, another is that Monty seemed to have some decent runs, in terms of yardage gained at least, prior to that 3rd down, so I figured why not ride the relatively 'hot hand'. Also 3rd & 2 is def. more than 'convertable' (idk even know if that is a real word tbh but hopefully that gives an idea of what I mean regardless) and even a poor running offense, such as the Bears have so far, should be able to get given the late game situation with the defense probably a bit tired in general after going at it for nearly a full game by that point.

    But as you and others have alluded to, it is one of those 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' situations where if the pass play worked, nobody here would be complaining, or at least the vast majority wouldn't, and same with a running play where if it did not work then yea, it looks bad too.
    Why not come out of the timeout in an I formation, and try drawing them offsides? We had two timeouts left. Carolina was able to do that earlier in the game on 4th and short.

  3. #843
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    Quote Originally Posted by shorvath721 View Post
    Why not come out of the timeout in an I formation, and try drawing them offsides? We had two timeouts left. Carolina was able to do that earlier in the game on 4th and short.
    Or if youíre dead set on passing, maybe play action? Shotgun with Patterson at tailback ....meh...donít love it. Also, for as much **** as Mitch got for locking onto Robinson, Foles is just as guilty.

    Oh well. 5-1 sounds pretty good. I still donít feel overly good about this team, but they keep winning. Iíll take it

  4. #844
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Yeah, I disagree with him in this case, but that's my brother you're talking about. I really don't think he's being a contrarian here, just has a different vision of how these things work. I can't say it's unreasonable to think that Nagy would have more input than we all might be imagining, just not sure what way we have to know for sure.
    Real brother?

    I only jumped on the contrarian bandwagon because he didn't really address anything I said, just nitpicked inconsequential parts of the argument.

  5. #845
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Or if youíre dead set on passing, maybe play action? Shotgun with Patterson at tailback ....meh...donít love it. Also, for as much **** as Mitch got for locking onto Robinson, Foles is just as guilty.

    Oh well. 5-1 sounds pretty good. I still donít feel overly good about this team, but they keep winning. Iíll take it
    He's not just as guilty at all. Trubisky had a total of 86 pass attempts and he targeted Robinson 27 times.

    Foles has a total of 152 attempts and has targeted Robinson 39 times. That's 31.3% of the time for Mitch compared to 25.7% for Foles.

    If you mean on that specific play, Foles made the right read, the right throw, but he made a bad throw. A good throw and that was an easy first down.

  6. #846
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    Quote Originally Posted by ds637 View Post
    Real brother?

    I only jumped on the contrarian bandwagon because he didn't really address anything I said, just nitpicked inconsequential parts of the argument.
    Yes. We have the same mother and father.

    That's because I felt that as it was worded it undermined your entire point. Which I explained in the initial response. If something is stated in a way that it undermines your point it doesn't seem like the point would be worth attempting to address.

    And even if that weren't the case, that doesn't make me a contrarian, it makes me somebody making a **** argument. Those aren't the same thing. Certainly a contrarian CAN make a **** argument, but a lot of people who sincerely believe something also make ****** arguments.

  7. #847
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    He's not just as guilty at all. Trubisky had a total of 86 pass attempts and he targeted Robinson 27 times.

    Foles has a total of 152 attempts and has targeted Robinson 39 times. That's 31.3% of the time for Mitch compared to 25.7% for Foles.

    If you mean on that specific play, Foles made the right read, the right throw, but he made a bad throw. A good throw and that was an easy first down.
    Wasnít a great read from what I recall. I actually think he had graham over the middle who had more separation

  8. #848
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Wasnít a great read from what I recall. I actually think he had graham over the middle who had more separation
    It was the first read and was open. he wouldn't turn back toward Graham when the first look is open. If Foles makes a good pass there it's an easy completion and first down.

  9. #849
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    https://i.imgur.com/wBQslSh.png

    There you go. Look how open Robinson is. The ball is already out of Foles' hands. A good throw there and that's an outrageously easy first down.

    Also, nobody else was open over the middle. Or anywhere.

    EDIT: This is the wrong play. Similar situation from earlier in the game.
    Last edited by Doogolas; 10-19-2020 at 03:59 PM.

  10. #850
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    Oops, that's the wrong time of the game. Still, should have had that one, too.

    Here's the one on 3rd and 2, and I'll break it down by moment:

    1st look is to Patterson who is clearly going to be covered:

    https://imgur.com/XnfZ9hL

    2nd look is actually Graham, and here is when Foles looks that way:

    https://imgur.com/KVfSyES

    If he throws that ball no way it's complete. Graham is running right towards that linebacker who makes an easy play, AND Robinson would be in the way. Proof is about .5 seconds later in the play:

    https://imgur.com/p7PL5A8

    And AFTER Graham crosses Robinson he's absolutely blanketed, that would have been a bad throw:

    Meanwhile the throw he did make to Robinson is WIDE open:

    https://imgur.com/vCEUgZX

    If he makes a good throw there, Robinson catches that on the run and has an easy, easy first down, and probably a lot more.


    Again, sorry for the grabbing the wrong play. I was moving through the game logs and saw a very similar situation, which is what I was mistaking as the first read. Here we see Foles go through three progressions, make the right read, and the right throw. It was just a bad throw:

    https://imgur.com/ZYb9aB6
    Last edited by Doogolas; 10-19-2020 at 04:01 PM.

  11. #851
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    https://i.imgur.com/wBQslSh.png

    There you go. Look how open Robinson is. The ball is already out of Foles' hands. A good throw there and that's an outrageously easy first down.

    Also, nobody else was open over the middle. Or anywhere.

    EDIT: This is the wrong play. Similar situation from earlier in the game.
    This is not the play I was referring to. Iím referring to the 3rd down play at the end of the game when nagy decided to pass instead of running and making Carolina burn their last TO

  12. #852
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    This is not the play I was referring to. Iím referring to the 3rd down play at the end of the game when nagy decided to pass instead of running and making Carolina burn their last TO
    I already corrected that.

  13. #853
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    Still think graham over the middle was the better option. Robinson wasnít even past the sticks.

  14. #854
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    Quote Originally Posted by KG2TB View Post
    Still think graham over the middle was the better option. Robinson wasnít even past the sticks.
    Graham is clearly HEAVILY covered after they cross. Robinson has a full step on his man. A good throw there and Robinson has a first down easily. Probably gains 15 yards. And Robinson was already turned upfield. If he catches that he's already at the sticks.

    It was 100% the right read and the right throw. It was just a very bad throw. A contested ball to Graham against that linebacker is a worse throw. Graham ONLY appeared open when he was behind the sticks, too. And by the time he was past them, he was covered.

    Here is Robinson's body when that ball hit the ground:

    https://imgur.com/GCmb7HN

    0% chance that's not a 1st down on a good throw. Absolutely 0%.

  15. #855
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    Itís tough to tell from the images, but it looks like the defender played that well. Would have been a tough throw and catch. Also questionable if he gets a first down even if he came down with it.

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