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  1. #361
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteShadow42 View Post
    The Braves are for real. Along with the Padres. Those two teams will challenge the Dodgers for year to come. The National League is loaded with talent.
    Yeah, for sure! There's so much young talent in the west

  2. #362
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Says under breath: “boycott it, unless there’s a new prez”

    Lmao. You read between the lines. We can safely assume neither guy will not go to the White House if Trump is still there. Not getting political here just saying what these guys would probably do.

  3. #363
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    I want to say thank you to all the positive voices in here... the ones who understand that baseball is not like basketball where the best team wins a series maybe 90% of the time.

    Baseball games, even more so in the playoffs, are a crapshoot. Think about it in this context - a 30% success rate as a hitter can land a player in the hall of fame. BUT in an inning where 3 guys with a 30% hit rate are due to bat, the team is only 90% likely to get one hit out of those 3 guys; a probability that equates to less than one hit per inning. The odds of stringing together multiple hits drops substantially.

    High leverage situational pitching changes are judgement calls with unpredictable outcomes largely dependent on which guy has less crap in his trousers.

    Lining out doesn’t mean the hitter sucks, a hard hit out is really a matter of unluckiness. Giving up a bloop single in no man’s land in a high leverage spot doesn’t mean the wrong pitcher was in the game, it means a ball hit the ground that usually wouldn’t. Getting an undesirable outcome for a favorable platoon switch doesn’t mean the wrong choice was made, again, it’s a matter of probability.

    We use probability every day. If we gamble in Vegas, we check the odds. When we decide whether to wear a coat or pack an umbrella, we look at the forecast. Managers and front offices have been playing percentages for a long time; stacking lineups to play platoon advantages, for example, has been around for over 100 years. Analytics simply provide context and the details necessary to make the most informed decisions we can make. Our team is probably the most analytical in the sport. Our FO, our staff and all of our players have bought in; it shows in the aggressiveness of the shifts we play and it’s a key reason we are arguably the best defensive team in baseball.

    Had we lost to the Braves yesterday, we would have lost to a great team, but not the best team. This Dodgers team is the best team in the sport. Losing in these playoffs would’ve been another disappointing ending, but it wouldn’t have meant that we needed to trade players and fire the staff and FO, it would’ve simply meant the percentages didn’t fall in our favor just as it didn’t for 28 other teams in the league.

    So, again, thank you to those who understand these things and root for our team even when the percentages aren’t falling in our favor. Trust me, being a positive voice in this forum is a draining endeavor during the regular season so I’m happy to see you and hope to hear from you more even after the playoffs.

    Let’s Bleed Blue and go get this thing!!!

    Wow. Great post and totally on point. Just look at the 1988 Dodgers. They beat the Mets and Athletics which were better teams. I just don’t want the Dodgers to be the Jim Kelly’s Bills teams in the NFL. Win this one. This is a close nit team like the Lakers. We should have the advantage. Also Dodgers have played 7 games in Arlington when the Rays have not played a single one yet.

    Also Kershaw is the starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game.

  4. #364
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerBlue8188 View Post
    Your explanation of the % & probability is what I love about baseball. I look at that same % outlook on so many things in life. It helps me understand why people do certain things. You don't change your life around because of outliers. You adapt to the experiences that make sense % wise.

    I've been a member here for awhile but stopped posting for awhile because the site always seems to have a lot of pop ups. But would love to come back if the traffic is good.
    Glad you are back. We need all the positive vibes for the Dodgers to win.

  5. #365
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodgerdave View Post
    A number of things seemed repetitive during this series, whether it was Seager's homers, great defensive plays by Betts, or Atlanta's baserunning blunders.
    The Dodgers' consistency is enjoyable to watch. I was loving how they were grinding out at at bats. I think I heard on the radio yesterday that Muncy walked 9 times. He had a couple big hits, but those walks were every bit as impactful as his hits. How many great pitches did they collectively take or "spoil" until they got their pitch to do something with, or to draw a walk. The Braves should pay attention to that...they have some talented and very impatient hitters.

    The base running errors were just a pure delight. Seeing Albies rounding first was good, but the contact play with 2nd and 3rd and nobody out was wonderful. It completely changed the feel of that game - I am sure my dog breathed a huge sigh of relief with that turn of events. Things were getting awfully tense in the household.

  6. #366
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonofdad View Post
    The Dodgers' consistency is enjoyable to watch. I was loving how they were grinding out at at bats. I think I heard on the radio yesterday that Muncy walked 9 times. He had a couple big hits, but those walks were every bit as impactful as his hits. How many great pitches did they collectively take or "spoil" until they got their pitch to do something with, or to draw a walk. The Braves should pay attention to that...they have some talented and very impatient hitters.

    The base running errors were just a pure delight. Seeing Albies rounding first was good, but the contact play with 2nd and 3rd and nobody out was wonderful. It completely changed the feel of that game - I am sure my dog breathed a huge sigh of relief with that turn of events. Things were getting awfully tense in the household.
    Right?

    Dude, Kiké and Bellinger both worked 8-pitch at bats and turned them into homers - to tie and take the lead respectively.

    They were protecting, grinding, just waiting for that mistake pitch, and they both got it. Those types of at bats are demoralizing for an opposing staff and they epitomize the Dodgers approach this season.

    It’s funny because a lot of our own fans have criticized the team for striking out so much in recent years... but the times have changed and teams understand now that an out is an out whether it ends up on the ground or in the catcher’s glove... and oddly enough, the Dodgers are one of the most disciplined teams in the game and strike out at one of the lowest rates in all of baseball.

    Things change. People will learn to bunt to beat the shift, and as teams continue neglecting defending the stolen base, steal attempts will increase again. Dynamic changes like this will change analytics too. For now, the art of hitting revolves around grinding out at-bats and beating the shift with the long ball and hard contact, and our boys do that better than anyone else in the game.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 10-20-2020 at 12:45 PM.

  7. #367
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Right?

    Dude, Kiké and Bellinger both worked 8-pitch at bats and turned them into homers - to tie and take the lead respectively.

    They were protecting, grinding, just waiting for that mistake pitch, and they both got it. Those types of at bats are demoralizing for an opposing staff and they epitomize the Dodgers approach this season.

    It’s funny because a lot of our own fans have criticized the team for striking out so much in recent years... but the times have changed and teams understand now that an out is an out whether it ends up on the ground or in the catcher’s glove... and oddly enough, the Dodgers are one of the most disciplined teams in the game and strike out at one of the lowest rates in all of baseball.

    Things change. People will learn to bunt to beat the shift, and as teams continue neglecting defending the stolen base, steal attempts will increase again. Dynamic changes like this will change analytics too. For now, the art of hitting revolves around grinding out at-bats and beating the shift with the long ball and hard contact, and our boys do that better than anyone else in the game.
    I can't wait for those days when Belly bunts to third for a single and then steals second and third to make a point on not to put a shift on him. He and Muncy need to adjust sooner or later.

    "To Achieve Greatness in this world is to have known Greatness One."

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteShadow42 View Post
    I can't wait for those days when Belly bunts to third for a single and then steals second and third to make a point on not to put a shift on him. He and Muncy need to adjust sooner or later.
    For sure. The way I see it, a bunt single and a steal is almost equal to a 2B (with more risk and more pitches involved, obviously).

    I’m still shocked that no one does it anymore. The Dodgers shift so aggressively at times that hitters wouldn’t even have to be particularly fast or good at bunting, they just need to get it hard up the 3rd base line.

    I mean, the long ball is fun and all, and the analytic age has changed the sport in some fun and interesting ways, but at some point contact hitters who perfected the craft of placing a ball on the field (Boggs, Gwynn, Butler) will see a bit of a renaissance. If those guys played today, they’d hit like .450 if teams shifted them
    "There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.”

    - Carl Sagan


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