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Thread: Looking Ahead

  1. #1
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    Looking Ahead

    As we are enjoying this current run, I canít help but wonder about positional turnover after this season.

    Turner, Trienen, Joc, Kikť, Wood, Baťz and McGee are all free agents, and Kenley Jansen seems to be on track for a middle relief/setup role to finish out his own contract.

    I can only assume (and also hope) Joc must be as good as gone. I imagine Wood will try to land somewhere where he can get a starterís workload. Iíd like to see the FO try to eat half of Jansenís salary and package him to a closer-needy small market team. Iíd also like to bring the rest of bullpen pieces back but this FO doesnít seem to care much for investing heavily in middle relief via trade or free agency.

    I think my big questions all revolve around JT...

    Does JT still want to start and make big money in this league? Does that plan change if we win the WS? Does he love LA and the Dodgers so much that heís come back on a cheap deal understanding that he has to compete?

    Also, doe the FO have a post-JT plan? Iíd imagine that plan currently includes an infield of Seager, Lux, and Muncy, with a competition at 3rd between Hoese, Rios and CT3. If CT3 loses out, he returns to his super utility role.

    Alternatively, would the FO consider Keibert Ruiz for a starting role and moving Will Smith back to 3rd? Smithís bat is legit and it would be a benefit to have him out of the squat position for 9 innings and in the lineup for 162 games.

    Better yet, is it possible that this FO is still locked in on a Lindor trade? We certainly have the pieces to make a trade work and could feature an infield of...

    Betts
    Seager
    Lindor
    Bellinger
    Smith
    Muncy
    Pollock
    Lux

    I wouldnít put it past this FO to try to lock all of those guys in long term - they are exactly the kind of players this team wants to invest in. It would be a lot of money for Seager and Lindor next offseason but if Seager is willing to move to 3rd, as he very well should, then that is a juggernaut dynasty offense.
    "There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.Ē

    - Carl Sagan


  2. #2
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    We are not trading for Lindor. Expect Lux to take over 2nd base permanently next year and try to resign Turner back for 1-2 years @ a low rate. Then I truly expect them to move Seager to 3rd to take over Turner once he retires. If we trade for Lindor we are going to have 3+ players that will have 300+ million contracts with Lindor, Betts and Cody. Never mind Seager getting 200+ million. I truly expect them to start using more of our prospects. It's plausible they let Seager walk and use that money to resign Cody in 2-3 years.

    Rios will take over Joc as the DH. Kike may resign for cheap or we can try to find someone late in their careers i.e. Utley for 1-2 years. Baez will walk and we will try to find another save your career player who was released.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamar2006 View Post
    We are not trading for Lindor. Expect Lux to take over 2nd base permanently next year and try to resign Turner back for 1-2 years @ a low rate. Then I truly expect them to move Seager to 3rd to take over Turner once he retires. If we trade for Lindor we are going to have 3+ players that will have 300+ million contracts with Lindor, Betts and Cody. Never mind Seager getting 200+ million. I truly expect them to start using more of our prospects. It's plausible they let Seager walk and use that money to resign Cody in 2-3 years.

    Rios will take over Joc as the DH. Kike may resign for cheap or we can try to find someone late in their careers i.e. Utley for 1-2 years. Baez will walk and we will try to find another save your career player who was released.
    Maybe we will trade for Lindor, maybe we wonít. I wouldnít count this FO out. Other executives seem to believe the Dodgers are still a favorite to land him this offseason.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/dodgerb...020/09/07/amp/

    This is the player they coveted before Mookie. Seems heís been their favorite player for quite some time. Landing Lindor might give us a better shot at retaining at least one of him and/or Seager.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 10-09-2020 at 04:37 PM.
    "There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.Ē

    - Carl Sagan


  4. #4
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    Love this type of stuff.

    Kike' I think wants to be a full time player. I briefly remember him being interviewed before the season & the feeling I got is he wanted to win it all this year because he was looking forward to being a free agent. He's an awesome utility player but he is deserving of testing the market. I have to imagine there is a team out there willing to give him a 3-4 year deal.

    JT...I almost think that if we win it this year the chances of him coming back go down. Hear me out. I think there is a chance whether we win or lose. But by winning the FO might look at it differently. As well as JT. If we lose against Tampa JT is still hungry to win a WS with his childhood team. But if he wins does he think more about preparing himself for a better retirement if a team offers him more? Will he be the guy we hope & not want $ as much so long as he's with the team that changed his life. Likewise with the FO, if we lose they know we were so very close again & losing a guy like JT is not moving in the right direction. If we win, the FO might be more firm with how much $ they can pay for an aging 3b with a history of injury. Granted I think the DH is around after 2021 so that is a positive to extend his career.

    Trienen. I think he's gone. He's making a big statement right now & if he keeps doing what he's done the last few games we'll have a WS trophy & he'll probably add millions more to his next contract.

    I think Joc is also gone but this was a really bad year for him. Last year was really surprising. Average wasn't high but the HR's were there. I really wonder if he gets that worthy of a deal. But I also think the FO (who for years thought of trading him) will let him go.

    That's an interesting idea about Will Smith moving to 3rd. If Ruiz turns out to be a great catcher and decent hitter it makes a lot of sense. Two cost effective players in your starting 9 for a few years.

  5. #5
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    How close is Hoese?


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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerBlue8188 View Post
    Love this type of stuff.

    Kike' I think wants to be a full time player. I briefly remember him being interviewed before the season & the feeling I got is he wanted to win it all this year because he was looking forward to being a free agent. He's an awesome utility player but he is deserving of testing the market. I have to imagine there is a team out there willing to give him a 3-4 year deal.

    JT...I almost think that if we win it this year the chances of him coming back go down. Hear me out. I think there is a chance whether we win or lose. But by winning the FO might look at it differently. As well as JT. If we lose against Tampa JT is still hungry to win a WS with his childhood team. But if he wins does he think more about preparing himself for a better retirement if a team offers him more? Will he be the guy we hope & not want $ as much so long as he's with the team that changed his life. Likewise with the FO, if we lose they know we were so very close again & losing a guy like JT is not moving in the right direction. If we win, the FO might be more firm with how much $ they can pay for an aging 3b with a history of injury. Granted I think the DH is around after 2021 so that is a positive to extend his career.

    Trienen. I think he's gone. He's making a big statement right now & if he keeps doing what he's done the last few games we'll have a WS trophy & he'll probably add millions more to his next contract.

    I think Joc is also gone but this was a really bad year for him. Last year was really surprising. Average wasn't high but the HR's were there. I really wonder if he gets that worthy of a deal. But I also think the FO (who for years thought of trading him) will let him go.

    That's an interesting idea about Will Smith moving to 3rd. If Ruiz turns out to be a great catcher and decent hitter it makes a lot of sense. Two cost effective players in your starting 9 for a few years.
    Regarding Kikť, I agree that he likely wants to be a bigger part of a team, even though he loves LA and even if itís a different team, and even if itís a smaller market which is likely where he lands. And for all the flack he gets here, the guy is a damn solid ball player.

    Check out all the names on his similarity scores from baseball reference and youíll see some decent players on that list. Minus a down year this year Kikť is basically Rob Deer with the bat (slightly less power, better discipline, except he has great speed and plays exceptional defense basically everywhere.

    He can be a starter in this league and, if he chooses to do so, I imagine heíll be a more productive hitter as well. Also, how can people hate on this dude? Heís everything I love about baseball - scrappy, fun, a real spark plug.

    Regarding JT, I donít know that heíll be able to get a mega deal. As you stated, heís in decline, but he also hasnít been able to stay healthy and this year didnít do him any justice. He might get a big, short term deal - I could see him accepting 1 year somewhere - and we have a lot of options so, I agree, I donít see him coming back.

    Ruiz up and Smith to 3rd is one idea to cover for JT. Hoese sounds like a monster, but I donít think weíll plan on him starting in the bigs for us since he hasnít played a full minor league season yet and this year went to the wayside. As far fetched as it sounds, I do think itís a good chance we pass on all of our FAís and use some of our minor league depth to go after Lindor.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 10-20-2020 at 08:42 PM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    How close is Hoese?


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    Sounds like he is impressing big time, but I donít know how close anyone is to labeling him ready. I think heís gonna need to see some MiLB competition.

    Interesting scenario, if we trade for Lindor and move Seager to 3rd, weíd have the option of extending Lindor, then either extending Seager or letting him walk if Hoese does impress

  8. #8
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    Would the Dodgers offer Justin Turner a QO? I think it's around 18m this year? Feels like you could keep him around for another year & have a good head in the locker room while still have a productive hitter. Just probably only good for 110 games or so. But, come post season you might get that dividend.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    Sounds like he is impressing big time, but I donít know how close anyone is to labeling him ready. I think heís gonna need to see some MiLB competition.

    Interesting scenario, if we trade for Lindor and move Seager to 3rd, weíd have the option of extending Lindor, then either extending Seager or letting him walk if Hoese does impress
    I wouldn't trade for Lindor. Lindor is only better than Seager defensively. Besides I doubt Friedman will be giving out another 300+ million contract anytime soon at least until it's time to extend Belli. I think Seager will get a 150-200 million contract considering he will become a free agent when Baez, Lindor, Story @ the same time. I do agree that we should move Seager to 3rd. Rios will be Jocs replacement. I can see Hoese playing 1st or LF.

  10. #10
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    To me, itís not an ďeither/orĒ thing with Seager and Lindor, itís an ďif/and/orĒ. Seager is a good enough defensive SS, but if Iím giving him a long term deal, itís going to be to mash baseballs and play a better defensive 3B which will also likely keep him healthier... which means we need a SS in the coming years and, as an all around player, Lindor is arguable the best in the business.

    The Dodgers have $92M in projected 2021 space under the competitive tax threshold of $210M...

    1) CKís $30M comes off the books after that
    2) $25M in 2021 is projected for Seager and Bellinger
    3) Jansenís $16M comes off the books
    5) Weíll have one more $15M commitment to Price in 2022

    In fact, all we have left in payroll commitments for 2022 are Mookie, Muncy, Pollock, and Price.

    Again, Iím not saying this will happen, but we could afford to give Mookie, Belli, Seager, and Lindor $30M each and that would leave us with $90M (assuming the competitive tax threshold doesnít change) to fill out the rest of the roster with a number of high quality players still under team control.

    Weíve gotten great production from CT3 and Muncy for cheap, but we will need to look toward replacing them - CT3 could be an all star with an everyday role and Iím sure he wants to be paid like one. First base is a much easier spot to fill than basically anywhere else on the field so I imagine that will come from within the system.

    Sure, we will have to extend Buehler and Urias and hopefully bring back CK if he doesnít decide to hang em up early. But I donít see another 30M AAV contract in CKís future unless itís another short term commitment. Urias and Belli are under team control until 2024 and Buehler isnít an FA until 2025.

    IMO, Betts, Belli, Lindor and Seager are the types of players that this FO wants to spend money on; young, and great at all aspects of the game. They donít compete in the FA market simply to fill holes, theyíll only do it for the type of player they want. They showed willingness in pursuing Cole, and they showed commitment in trading for and extending Mookie.

    Itís still likely a very long shot, but I wouldnít be at all surprised to see Lindor in Dodger blue next season.
    Last edited by GibbyIsMyHero; 10-21-2020 at 01:25 PM.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerBlue8188 View Post
    Would the Dodgers offer Justin Turner a QO? I think it's around 18m this year? Feels like you could keep him around for another year & have a good head in the locker room while still have a productive hitter. Just probably only good for 110 games or so. But, come post season you might get that dividend.
    I would say itís likely. Itís also possible he accepts it.

    I think if they do not at least offer a QO, then theyíre likely tipping their hand to something bigger.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by GibbyIsMyHero View Post
    I would say itís likely. Itís also possible he accepts it.

    I think if they do not at least offer a QO, then theyíre likely tipping their hand to something bigger.
    Bigger as in what? Another player? Or $ for JT?

    The only thing I thought of was if they offered him more $ overall for 2 years to make the AAV less for 2021. I think they did this for Utley to help stay under the tax. But I'm not even sure the luxury tax threshold will be an issue in 2021.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerBlue8188 View Post
    Bigger as in what? Another player? Or $ for JT?

    The only thing I thought of was if they offered him more $ overall for 2 years to make the AAV less for 2021. I think they did this for Utley to help stay under the tax. But I'm not even sure the luxury tax threshold will be an issue in 2021.
    Bigger as in - again, my hope - making a play for Lindor

  14. #14
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    If we have Betts, Bellinger, Seager and Lindor long term...I donít care who else is in the lineup.


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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by KobeOwnSU View Post
    If we have Betts, Bellinger, Seager and Lindor long term...I donít care who else is in the lineup.


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    not gonna happen. That will be over 1 billion committed for the next 12-15 years.

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