Looking Ahead

[ciaban2.0]

Going back into that thread and watching people **** all over spliff and the giants was pretty good nostalgia.

[GibbyIsMyHero]

This is literally me saying his best case scenario is .350 and you telling me it wasn't.



Look at the indicators. It's not that hard to imagine that he could perform significantly better.

It turns out it was THE best case scenario, since he has gotten above that in the 2 1/3 seasons since.

Firstly, “no it isn’t” doesn’t suggest .400 is sustainable so just admit you pulled that out of your ***.

Secondly, there’s huge gap between .350 and .400

Thirdly, .350 wasn’t his “best case scenario” that was his average over the last 4 years.

Lastly, it just so happens his best case scenario was .361 in 2017 and you chose to cut it from the sample because it doesn’t work for your argument.

Quote me saying .400 was his best case scenario, or admit you lied.

[GibbyIsMyHero]

Ciaban, where you at?

Clearly you were confident you won this debate, even though (as per usual) you did nothing but try to back me into arguments I never made and put words in my mouth.

Clearly you are incapable of, both, having honest debate and admitting you were wrong even after badgering me after nearly every damn post I make and carelessly bombarding me with word vomit. Nows the time for accountability.

Admit you lost this one and that you either lied or misremembered how this went and we can move on to the next subject (Maeda) where you might have a better shot.

And if you don’t believe it’s over, then by all means, try to bring up a point/counterpoint argument that you think you won.

[GibbyIsMyHero]

I will take your lack of response as a complete and utter submission.

Moving forward I only ask that you stop jumping on my posts to TELL me I’m wrong when you clearly don’t fully understand the points you’re making.

I’m definitely open to having my views debated, but it can be more of a discussion. If you don’t understand something, try introducing it as a question instead of a series of snarky comments on the foundation of shoddy rationalizations.

[Bluebeard]

The guy who hardly ever posts is going to try and inconspicuously stick my nose in here and change the subject: We're all Dodgers fans here. That's the bottom line. Remember, love, peace and Bobby Sherman.

I was in my man cave looking at a giant poster of the Beatles Abbey Road album and was thinking of a photo shoot with Dustin May leading the pack as John Lennon followed by Justin Turner as Ringo Star. Bringing up the rear as George Harrison has got to be Tony Gonsolin. I'm debating myself (yeah, no, yeah, no) on Paul McCartney's part. Thinking either Cody Bellinger or Corey Seager. I think one photo dressed like the Beatles and another in their uniforms live at Abbey Road would be pretty cool. If you don't think so then you're probably not smokin' what I'm smokin'. GO BLUE.

[GibbyIsMyHero]

The guy who hardly ever posts is going to try and inconspicuously stick my nose in here and change the subject: We're all Dodgers fans here. That's the bottom line. Remember, love, peace and Bobby Sherman.

I was in my man cave looking at a giant poster of the Beatles Abbey Road album and was thinking of a photo shoot with Dustin May leading the pack as John Lennon followed by Justin Turner as Ringo Star. Bringing up the rear as George Harrison has got to be Tony Gonsolin. I'm debating myself (yeah, no, yeah, no) on Paul McCartney's part. Thinking either Cody Bellinger or Corey Seager. I think one photo dressed like the Beatles and another in their uniforms live at Abbey Road would be pretty cool. If you don't think so then you're probably not smokin' what I'm smokin'. GO BLUE.

Seager lol

It’s been years of this, btw.

Im happy to change the subject.

[USCFOOTBALL]

Damn Ciaban you did terrible in this debate.

[USCFOOTBALL]

Ciaban you don't honestly think Kike is as good Taylor batting do you?

[GibbyIsMyHero]

Lol. The funniest thing about all of it is that - as is pretty typical - most every argument made there was introduced by him trying to prove he wasn’t wrong in his criticism of my post.

Instead of owning up when I show him why his argument is flawed, he doubles down and begins compounding elements so he can turn the argument into something entirely different...

In this instance, we started as him arguing Kiké is equally deserving of ABs because of BABIP and I showed him why the assumption that they’ll both regress to league average is not a guarantee considering Chris Taylor’s skillset.

Instead of saying, “hey, you might have a point, maybe we should give the guy ABs and see where he’s at when he comes down to earth”, his response was to...

* Argued that Kiké’s indicators should put him near Taylor’s performance level (both misguided and incorrect)

* When that didn’t work, he introduced a false narrative that I was arguing CT3 would sustain a .400 BABIP (which he’s still doing)

* He introduced the Trout comparison in an attempt to make my argument look ridiculous (boy, did that backfire)

I confidently continued to explain - not that he would do all these things but - that the potential was there to be successful.

And still, he brings this up as if he handed me my *** then, after doing so and being torched for it, he has the audacity to suggest that I was wrong simply because I only had a 160 PA sample to work with lol.

A normal person would say that’s even more impressive and he’s knocking me for it

[USCFOOTBALL]

Lol. The funniest thing about all of it is that - as is pretty typical - most every argument made there was introduced by him trying to prove he wasn’t wrong in his criticism of my post.

Instead of owning up when I show him why his argument is flawed, he doubles down and begins compounding elements so he can turn the argument into something entirely different...

In this instance, we started as him arguing Kiké is equally deserving of ABs because of BABIP and I showed him why the assumption that they’ll both regress to league average is not a guarantee considering Chris Taylor’s skillset.

Instead of saying, “hey, you might have a point, maybe we should give the guy ABs and see where he’s at when he comes down to earth”, his response was to...

* Argued that Kiké’s indicators should put him near Taylor’s performance level (both misguided and incorrect)

* When that didn’t work, he introduced a false narrative that I was arguing CT3 would sustain a .400 BABIP (which he’s still doing)

* He introduced the Trout comparison in an attempt to make my argument look ridiculous (boy, did that backfire)

I confidently continued to explain - not that he would do all these things but - that the potential was there to be successful.

And still, he brings this up as if he handed me my *** then, after doing so and being torched for it, he has the audacity to suggest that I was wrong simply because I only had a 160 PA sample to work with lol.

A normal person would say that’s even more impressive and he’s knocking me for it

Not only that but the wRC+ stats of both are not even close. Taylor's wRC+ the last 4 years are 126,113,107 131, Kike's is 91,118,88,83. An average hitter is 100, 150 is 50% above league average. Kike's wRC+ implies he's a below average hitter.

[GibbyIsMyHero]

Not only that but the wRC+ stats of both are not even close. Taylor's wRC+ the last 4 years are 126,113,107 131, Kike's is 91,118,88,83. An average hitter is 100, 150 is 50% above league average. Kike's wRC+ implies he's a below average hitter.

It’s not hard to imagine why, despite a 27.1% k-rate, Taylor is a good hitter. Characterizing this debate as me arguing “Chris Taylor is good at the luck stat” to downplay the loss shows that he still doesn’t understand the stat he brought up for debate.

Chris Taylor is not good at “the luck stat”, he’s good at BABIP. His .350 BABIP doesn’t suggest that he’s 5% luckier than league average, it means he’s 5% better at getting hits when the ball is in play. He has a baseline now and THAT’s where the “luck” component comes into play. If he comes in significantly higher or lower than .350 without any other significant change to his other indicators, that would suggest whether he’s lucky or unlucky.

Just because I argue he’s capable of performing in the same range at BABIP as someone like Mike Piazza doesn’t mean I think he’s going to be anywhere near the hitter Mike Piazza was.

There are so many things that made Piazza a great hitter. Taylor has a slightly better line drive rate and a slightly better BABIP. Piazza had much more power, much better contact, and vastly better plate discipline leading to more balls in play, more home runs, less strikeouts and a way better batting average.

My entire point was that BABIP is not a magical metric, there is so much more to consider than summarily saying “anything over .300 is due for regression”