2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

[CP_414]

Maybe. All im saying is there is a world where they make a couple small signings, keep Bryant and Baez and compete. Likely no. But I see no reason why it isnt possible. Spend a little for the first half of the season. If you are out, sell for the best packages you can get.

The NL Central up and down is just trash.

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Between Schwarber and this trade they dropped about $20 million? If the goal was to compete in 2021 while dropping $20 million before some additions then there are other guys you move. I don’t think they trade their best player for a very talented high school baseball team and then stop there and starting trying to win in 2021.

Contreras should go. Any of the Rizzo/KB/Javy group that won’t be extended should go, and they should probably be open to moving Hendricks at some point in the next year. As of last night the Cubs focus is now 2024. They’ll say it’s not. They’ll sign some cheap free agents. Ross will talk about wanting to win the World Series. But they just showed us that they don’t care about 2021 or 2022.

[1908_Cubs]

Hello, First time long time.

After sleeping on it, I'm not convinced we are in full rebuild (yet). I will reserve judgement until the winter is over. It looks like this is the chance to bolster the farm system while getting the best return for Yu. Yu dropped his ERA by just about 2 full points from the first 2 years. If I had to bet, 2021 Yu would be a lot closer to 2018/2019 Yu than 2020 Yu.

There is a reason Jed only snagged Rookie ball players. Sure it would have been nice to get a top 100 in there, but who? SD is not getting rid of their top 4. Add these 4 plus Cristian Hernandez and Ballasteros and the farm is stocked back up. All are 3/4 years away but the roster is not depleted. We are not going to be all 2012 Darwin Barneys and Geovany Sotos.

Breathe, lets sneak a couple wild card runs into this "rebuild" and start chasing 100 win seasons again in 2023/2024.

Now, if these moves keep coming ignore everything I just said.

Sadly, I think we'll have to ignore everything you just said. And that's not me being a jerk about it, it's because the Cubs seem pretty uninterested in spending money. The Cubs actually paid down Darvish's contract, and took back a salary to offset, just to roll the dice on 4 lottery tickets. Hell, it's unfair to call them "rookie ball" kids...two of them have never played a professional game. I think the Cubs signaled very loud and clear to the entire world last night just how poor they are right now, and how much they don't care about winning in 2021...or 2022 for that matter.

I think the next shoe will drop shortly. And it'll be another trade that takes away a talented 2021 player(I think Contreras is as good as gone now). And I still expect a salary dump of Bryant to take place (and considering we just got 4 lottery tickets for Darvish, I think we'll get a pile of nothing for Bryant, considering the Cubs have also said they won't eat down his salary). I think 2021 isn't going to be very pretty. I think 2022 might be worse. They basically have no one signed for 2022 outside of Hendricks, Bote, Contreras (who I think is getting dealt) and Happ. Outside of that it's a bunch of questionmarks and trash.

Welcome to the board! In theory, I totally get where you're coming from. But I think it's going to get worse in Chicago than better, and that Darvish trade is screaming that from the rooftops.

[1908_Cubs]

The one thing that really annoys me about all this is that by now we were supposed to have a sustainable farm pumping out talent so we wouldnt have to do this type of stuff.

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Well, the Cubs in 2016 and 2017 went all in and traded a good chunk of their minor league system to supplement the MLB team. Some of those moves worked out better than others. But when you take two 2 years of trading your players, and signing FA's and losing high draft picks (in 2016 they didn't pick until the third round), you have to expect there's going to be a gap in the talent. Right now, this is the major gap. It's been about 3-4 years since then, and the Cubs would have brought up guys like Torres, Jimenez, Cease...but they're not here.

It should also be noted, there are good Cubs prospects in the system, but they're a year or two away in most cases, but there's good prospects coming. With no 2020 minor league year, we didn't get a year of data on many of these guys, but they've been working. There is good reason to believe that when 2021 kicks off, that many of these players will show a good deal of improvement. I also think they knocked it out of the park in the draft.

[1908_Cubs]

Maybe. All im saying is there is a world where they make a couple small signings, keep Bryant and Baez and compete. Likely no. But I see no reason why it isnt possible. Spend a little for the first half of the season. If you are out, sell for the best packages you can get.

The NL Central up and down is just trash.

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The NL Central is trash. But there's almost no way to come back from where the Cubs are at right now. If you want to make the playoffs, you can't salary dump Darvish for an IFA spending spree and expect to go anywhere. You can't DFA a 2-3 win LF'er and expect to replace it for less.

As of now, I think the Cubs are probably going to end up being around a 75 win team. They'll probably add some cheap 1 year OF'er, and maybe 1 more arm to the rotation (Lester?). But the Cubs cannot walk into next year with that, a cobbled bullpen, and pretend they're winning even a really, really bad division. They'll probably look to trade players at the deadline who are left, too. Even if they're near 1st; what's the point in being an 80 win NL Central division winner?

[ReJo]

It has to be a money decision. Think of all the tickets and beers and hot dogs they couldn't sell this season. And while the Marquee network will eventually pay off down the road it was just the worst timing for year one.

[1908_Cubs]

Well, if there's any good news, Eric Longerhagen is pretty high on Preciado, ranking him above Ed Howard in his prospect rankings. I really like what I've seen and read on Preciado, there's a ton to love there. Long ways away still on him, but he's the best of the bunch, in terms of upside today.

[TheRealTI]

You guys are absolutely crazy if you think the Cubs can compete for the 2021 NL Central title. I know it's a bad division but look at the state of the rotation...

Hendricks
Davies (a guy who has averaged 1.5 fWAR the past few years)
Mills (5.44 FIP last year)
Alzolay? (who knows with this guy)

Who even knows who will get the last spot but it won't be someone Earth-shatteringly good. That's like, a bottom 5 rotation in baseball.

Now let's look at the lineup and let's say for arguments sake they bring basically everyone on the current roster back and make minor signings to fill out the outfield. Last season that group of players managed the 21st best team wRC+. Maybe they can be better but hard to see them being a top 10 offense in baseball.

So with what we have NOW we have an awful rotation and an average offense. That's not a recipe for a division winner, even in a bad division.

You could say we'll add some big pieces to stay competitive. The reality though, is that we are likely looking at more subtractions. Ownership has shown they want to cut payroll, we are not looking at any of the even semi-major FAs.

We are headed towards a full rebuild and we not are going to be competitive next year.

[CubsRule08]

[TheRealTI]

I'll add one more venting post.

This trade is NOT selling high as I've seen suggested by some. Just because you trade a guy who just had a good season does not mean you are selling high.

The reality is we are selling LOW on Darvish because we are choosing to sell him in a buyer's market. It's not like he has one year left on his deal and we need to trade him now or at the deadline. We all know how COVID has messed with the market and team budgets, but if you are selling Darvish now you are minimizing your potential return.

If this was the best offer right now, then you ride it out with him and wait to trade him until hopefully the trade market is in a better place (either at the deadline or next winter). Even in a hypothetical situation where you hold him he has a decent but not great season, you probably still get more for him next winter than you do in today's market with these conditions.

This is a ownership saving money trade, nothing baseball about it.

[1908_Cubs]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-to-m...ion-cash-free/

A worthwhile article from this summer discussing owners profitability. I'd recommend it.

[mjs5050ss]

I'm 100% aware I will probably be wrong. The Schwarber decision is probably a bigger red flag that what you and most of this board thinks is going to happen than me trying to justify it. I'm from Nebraska and have seen since 2015 that the Ricketts family doesn't care about what the people want. Their sole goal is about moving up the Forbes list.

I'm just trying to make sense of the trade. I have to keep an open mind about Jed and try to figure out his big picture. I don't think he would sign a 5 year contract if he didn't think the checkbook would be open.

Yu was for sure the first domino to fall, and there will be more. I just hope the others that fall will be for more ready players and less strike outs. I just don't hate the Yu trade as much as everyone else. South Bend will be fun to see develop over the next couple years.

[1908_Cubs]

I'm 100% aware I will probably be wrong. The Schwarber decision is probably a bigger red flag that what you and most of this board thinks is going to happen than me trying to justify it. I'm from Nebraska and have seen since 2015 that the Ricketts family doesn't care about what the people want. Their sole goal is about moving up the Forbes list.

I'm just trying to make sense of the trade. I have to keep an open mind about Jed and try to figure out his big picture. I don't think he would sign a 5 year contract if he didn't think the checkbook would be open.

Yu was for sure the first domino to fall, and there will be more. I just hope the others that fall will be for more ready players and less strike outs. I just don't hate the Yu trade as much as everyone else. South Bend will be fun to see develop over the next couple years.

Oh, I'm actually very open about Jed. I think he's got the resume to be the guy. And I blame none of this on him. This is an issue at the top.

On the Yu trade; I don't really "hate" the prospects, but I hate the risk. Darvish's trade had no reason to be that risky. The Cubs have no reason to be this cheap. This bad in 2021 and probably, 2022-2023 on top. Had the Cubs gotten 2 of those 4, and 2 prospects who were far more known quantities (Morejon and Campusano, for example), they'd have done quite well. And they probably could have, eating down the money. My issue is that this wasn't the best deal they could have made without self imposed circumstances, nor was it necessary without those self imposed circumstances.

In theory, I like all 4 of the prospects. I hate that the Cubs got only 4 lottery tickets for someone who should have brought them back more immediate talent and help had the Cubs been allowed to create that situation. Everyone one of those prospects are pretty strong 3rd/4th pieces in a Darvish trade. Where I begin to find problems is that they also occupy the 1st and 2nd piece slots, which shouldn't have to be kids who haven't ever played a professional baseball games. My anger is issued towards Tom Ricketts and the Cubs frugality. This is a team that should be the Yankees of the midwest. Not the Rays of the midwest.

[TheRealTI]

Everyone loves point at guys like Tatis as evidence for the value of lottery tickets. Look, they certainly can hit. Any prospect can hit.

The reality is the further away from the majors you are, no matter the level of talent, the less likely they are to be a success.

We traded for four teenagers who collectively have almost no professional baseball experience. The odds of any of the FOUR making the majors leagues is pretty low. The odds of any of the four becoming an impact MLB player are remote.

They're called lottery tickets for a reason. Most of the time they return little to no value and very, very occasionally they have a great return.

The most likely return from this trade is that none of these 4 players ever become impact MLB players.

[mjs5050ss]

Thats Fair. At least we can agree on our thoughts about the Ricketts.

I came to this board fully aware that most of you are more knowledgeable than I am on this sort of thing. I just needed a place to get my thoughts out there.

Not to derail the trade hate, but any chance they throw out an offer to Quintana? Any other mid-level 170 inning starters out there? Doubtful Marquez will be ready without a season last year. Maybe Alzolay can get 100 innings in.

[CP_414]

Oh, I'm actually very open about Jed. I think he's got the resume to be the guy. And I blame none of this on him. This is an issue at the top.

On the Yu trade; I don't really "hate" the prospects, but I hate the risk. Darvish's trade had no reason to be that risky. The Cubs have no reason to be this cheap. This bad in 2021 and probably, 2022-2023 on top. Had the Cubs gotten 2 of those 4, and 2 prospects who were far more known quantities (Morejon and Campusano, for example), they'd have done quite well. And they probably could have, eating down the money. My issue is that this wasn't the best deal they could have made without self imposed circumstances, nor was it necessary without those self imposed circumstances.

In theory, I like all 4 of the prospects. I hate that the Cubs got only 4 lottery tickets for someone who should have brought them back more immediate talent and help had the Cubs been allowed to create that situation. Everyone one of those prospects are pretty strong 3rd/4th pieces in a Darvish trade. Where I begin to find problems is that they also occupy the 1st and 2nd piece slots, which shouldn't have to be kids who haven't ever played a professional baseball games. My anger is issued towards Tom Ricketts and the Cubs frugality. This is a team that should be the Yankees of the midwest. Not the Rays of the midwest.

Agreed. I think all 4 of the prospects are pretty interesting. It’s possible that none of them become anything and it’s possible that the Cubs gained an impact guy and some solid pieces long term.

It’s just the timeline sucks and this is clearly a move that was done because of an immediate demand to lower payroll and not because they were blown away with an offer.

Here’s a good read on the prospects themselves.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting...or-yu-darvish/

He has Precaido as a top 100 guy this offseason. That would put him in the Cubs top 4 ahead of Ed Howard. Santana is a 45 FV. Mena is a 40/45 FV. Caissie has a lower grade but he’s the only of the 4 that Longenhagen hasn’t seen in person. Overall that’s a very encouraging report on the 4 players. We just need a lot of patience...again.


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