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I think people have far too high of expectations of what they can get in this market. People forget how lucky the Cubs got at times with things like Hendricks and Arrieta. The Cubs have a better org top to bottom than the last time, but a lot of the Cubs system is far away still.
I doubt they're back in 2022. Maybe by 2023. I think there's a good chance its not until 2024 due to how piss poor this market is shaping up to be and what they won't get for the players they're trading.
And thats not "doing it wrong" so much as "not having options".
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Depends on what we are getting back. If it’s just salary relief and prospects then ya it’s gonna talk 3years. If it’s salary relief and big league ready guys then maybe we take a step back next year but the year after I would expect progress
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If they do that, its essentially a full blow up. What would they have left? Baez is on one year. Schwarber is on one year. They'd need 4 new SPs. Rizzo getting older. And honestly not sure I have a ton of interest in a Baez extension considering what he'd want.
Theyd have Willson and Hendricks essentially. If they're trading Bryant and Darvish, they will effectively be blowing it up.
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I see the primary trade options in 2 groups.
Group 1:
Kb
Javy
Rizzo
Schwarber
Group 2:
Darvish
Contreras
Hendricks
Happ
Group 1 are the 4 bats nearing free agency. At best you might get a top prospect who has struggled or a borderline top 100 type. At worst you are considering a non tender with some in this list.
Group 2 are the guys who I believe can bring back significant prospect value. Both of those pitchers should bring back a haul. Bauer is the only comparable pitcher on the free agent market. We’ll see who else is on the trade market but in the early reports these guys look like the best SP options available in a trade along with Lynn. Contreras would be easily the 2nd best catcher available after Realmuto and he’d be far more affordable. He’d appeal to the teams that lose out on Realmuto and the teams that can’t afford Realmuto. With Happ just entering arbitration and with his continued success hitting RHP and ability to get by in CF he should bring bad a significant prospect if he’s made available.
If you extend 2 and trade 2 of group 1 and leave group 2 alone then I’d count that as being pretty close to running it back in 2021. If you start trading from group 2 then you are rebuilding and you might as well trade multiple players from each group including everyone from group 1 that you can’t or don’t want to extend.
Last edited by CP_414; 11-22-2020 at 06:18 PM.
Wouldn't surprise me if the only regular position players moved this offseason end up being just Schwarber and Bryant..
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https://twitter.com/jimbowdengm/stat...128732674?s=21
This remains the best fit if the Cubs move Contreras.
https://twitter.com/jimbowdengm/stat...847235587?s=21
I still really like Happ to KC as a blow it up trade too.
That’s enough posting of Ralph tweets. Sorry.
Last edited by CP_414; 11-22-2020 at 09:39 PM.
From Rosenthal today...
The Chicago Tribune quoted team spokesman Julian Green last year as saying that the Ricketts could be expected to receive between $100 million and $125 million in tax credits once federal and state officials determined that the renovation of Wrigley met national historical preservation standards.
The article also talks about the possibility of a KB non tender, Contreras trade, and Rizzo extension.
Last edited by CP_414; 11-23-2020 at 01:16 PM.
I mentioned the possibility of a KB NT about a month ago and I'm starting to believe it is coming. The Dodgers will probably swoop in and lock him up. Unfortunately the NT won't come with a reallocation of funds that would make it somewhat palatable. I'd be in favor of it if it came with a DJLM contract, for example. Or Brantley. Somebody to shift the profile of the offense a bit while not losing the run creation.
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