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  1. #4381
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    Sep 2007
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    Brian Dozier announced his retirement today.

    Cross him off our potential 2B list

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  2. #4382
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    Jan 2011
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    5,250
    Love the Padres and the tatis deal... thatís how you should move a young talent thru the majors and handle him.

    This control BS and keeping guys out of the majors is bad for baseball. The next cba things need to change to get young talent on big league teams ASAP.

  3. #4383
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    10,016
    Quote Originally Posted by petrey10 View Post
    Love the Padres and the tatis deal... thatís how you should move a young talent thru the majors and handle him.

    This control BS and keeping guys out of the majors is bad for baseball. The next cba things need to change to get young talent on big league teams ASAP.
    This is what I think. If teams have plans on giving a guy an extension early on, and know that it's likely to happen, then there's no reason to keep him down. If they don't think they are going to be able to extend a guy before he hits FA (Bryant, Harper, etc) they have to hold them down for the extra year. I would be a terrible baseball, and business decision if they didn't hold a guy down if they're not going to extend him.

    That said, the service time issue will certainly be addressed. Maybe it will be 100 days...the all star break...81 games, etc. But it's going to change.

  4. #4384
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    Mar 2019
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    792
    WhyCan'tWeWin, Spoken like someone who won't be writing those multimillion dollar checks each month. Maybe the next Bobby Bonilla, collecting paychecks 5-10 years after he has played his last game.
    Last edited by Stevemil505; 02-19-2021 at 10:58 AM.

  5. #4385
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevemil505 View Post
    WhyCan'tWeWin, Spoken like someone who won't be writing those multimillion dollar checks each month. Maybe the next Bobby Bonilla, collecting paychecks 5-10 years after he has played his last game.
    Tatis's contract really doesn't have that much risk involved, which sounds odd since it's $340m, but it doesn't. Team pay anywhere between $8m in down years and over $9m per win on the free market. He needs to be worth, 40 wins or so to match $340m in contract. So far, in 143 games, he's at 6.5 fWAR. Let's assume that's a bit inflated, so he's a 4 win player on average- that's all star level, on average. He'll match 40 wins in the first 10 years. If he's worth 50 wins over 10 years, he'll provide something like $80m in value.

    Yes, there's injury risk. But there's also a major surplus value. We also need to remember that there's around 1.5%-2% inflation year to year. By year 14, his ~$24m AAV will be worth something like $19m real world dollars if inflation continues. I like this deal for SD. They probably come out on top. If he's healthy, it's a win. If he's a borderline HoF'er, it's probably one of the better contracts in baseball. If he's a HoF'er by almost all accounts it very well may be the best deal in baseball for much of that contract.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 02-19-2021 at 11:41 AM.

  6. #4386
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    Mar 2019
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    792
    As to injury risk, think Giancarlo Stanton and
    Jacoby Ellsbury of the Yankees, as well as Tony C. of the Red Sox. I do hope the PAdres get a BIG insurance policy on his health ; they might need it.
    Last edited by Stevemil505; 02-19-2021 at 11:47 AM.

  7. #4387
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    Nov 2014
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    12,718

    2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Stevemil505 View Post
    As to injury risk, think Giancarlo Stanton and
    Jacoby Ellsbury of the Yankees, as well as Tony C. of the Red Sox. I do hope the PAdres get a BIG insurance policy on his health ; they might need it.
    If Giancarlo Stanton signed his 13 year contract going into his age 22 season heíd already have 33-34 fWAR on that deal. Despite all his injuries heíd easily be on track to make that contract a win for the team. He might anyway. Jacoby was entering his 30/31 season when he went to NY and isnít the player Tatis is either. I donít see any relationship there. Tatis is going into his age 22 season. They are buying his entire prime and none of his upper 30s. Itís a good risk for the Padres and a shitton of guaranteed money for Tatis.

    Theyíll definitely have insurance.

    If we want to get technical the fWAR needed to make it a mathematical win for the Padres on a $/WAR perspective is probably higher than 40 because some of these years are prearb and early arb where the player is expected to be underpaid and provide a lower $/win. Regardless, itís looks like a great deal for SD and for Tatis today. If they get 40 WAR and it takes 47 WAR to make it a net win by $/WAR that does not mean itís a bad deal. It means they got 40 fWAR from a great player who spent his whole prime in SD on a reasonable contract.
    Last edited by CP_414; 02-19-2021 at 12:59 PM.

  8. #4388
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    If Giancarlo Stanton signed his 13 year contract going into his age 22 season heíd already have 33-34 fWAR on that deal. Despite all his injuries heíd easily be on track to make that contract a win for the team. He might anyway. Jacoby was entering his 30/31 season when he went to NY and isnít the player Tatis is either. I donít see any relationship there. Tatis is going into his age 22 season. They are buying his entire prime and none of his upper 30s. Itís a good risk for the Padres and a shitton of guaranteed money for Tatis.

    Theyíll definitely have insurance.

    If we want to get technical the fWAR needed to make it a mathematical win for the Padres on a $/WAR perspective is probably higher than 40 because some of these years are prearb and early arb where the player is expected to be underpaid and provide a lower $/win. Regardless, itís looks like a great deal for SD and for Tatis today. If they get 40 WAR and it takes 47 WAR to make it a net win by $/WAR that does not mean itís a bad deal. It means they got 40 fWAR from a great player who spent his whole prime in SD on a reasonable contract.
    Ellsbery was definately an anchor around the Yanks' neck for the last 4 years of his contract. As for Stanton, he's had one decent year with the Yanks,and missed probably 80% of the rest of his time with them. (Btw, Yanks are the other team I follow) I still am hopeful he will work out ( the 2020 playoffs showed what he can do if healthy), but most of the "fans" over at the Yankee forum wish he could be traded,but can't because of his contract.
    Last edited by Stevemil505; 02-19-2021 at 02:13 PM.

  9. #4389
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevemil505 View Post
    Ellsbery was definately an anchor around the Yanks' neck for the last 4 years of his contract. As for Stanton, he's had one decent year with the Yanks,and missed probably 80% of the rest of his time with them. (Btw, Yanks are the other team I follow) I still am hopeful he will work out ( the 2020 playoffs showed what he can do if healthy), but most of the "fans" over at the Yankee forum wish he could be traded,but can't because of his contract.
    I think you are missing the point.

    Elsbury has nothing to do with Tatis. He was 9 years older than Tatis when he signed that deal and heís not nearly as good. His contract with the Yankees didnít cover a day in his 20s. Stanton is closer but even in Stantons situation if he signed the deal at age 22 and it covered his age 22-34 seasons then itís considered a win.

    A 14-year extension for a 22 year old star is as low risk as youíll ever find for a 14-year contract. Thereís still risk of course, but you are only paying for his prime. This covers ages 22-35. Itís a great risk for SD and a lot of cash for Tatis.

    As a side note, the Yankees didnít actually pay Ellsbury all that money anyway.

  10. #4390
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    Mar 2019
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    792
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    If Giancarlo Stanton signed his 13 year contract going into his age 22 season heíd already have 33-34 fWAR on that deal. Despite all his injuries heíd easily be on track to make that contract a win for the team. He might anyway. Jacoby was entering his 30/31 season when he went to NY and isnít the player Tatis is either. I donít see any relationship there. Tatis is going into his age 22 season. They are buying his entire prime and none of his upper 30s. Itís a good risk for the Padres and a shitton of guaranteed money for Tatis.

    Theyíll definitely have insurance.

    If we want to get technical the fWAR needed to make it a mathematical win for the Padres on a $/WAR perspective is probably higher than 40 because some of these years are prearb and early arb where the player is expected to be underpaid and provide a lower $/win. Regardless, itís looks like a great deal for SD and for Tatis today. If they get 40 WAR and it takes 47 WAR to make it a net win by $/WAR that does not mean itís a bad deal. It means they got 40 fWAR from a great player who spent his whole prime in SD on a reasonable contract.
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I think you are missing the point.

    Elsbury has nothing to do with Tatis. He was 9 years older than Tatis when he signed that deal and heís not nearly as good. His contract with the Yankees didnít cover a day in his 20s. Stanton is closer but even in Stantons situation if he signed the deal at age 22 and it covered his age 22-34 seasons then itís considered a win.

    A 14-year extension for a 22 year old star is as low risk as youíll ever find for a 14-year contract. Thereís still risk of course, but you are only paying for his prime. This covers ages 22-35. Itís a great risk for SD and a lot of cash for Tatis.

    As a side note, the Yankees didnít actually pay Ellsbury all that money anyway.
    The Yanks did have insurance that covered part of his cost but he still counted toward the tax .

  11. #4391
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    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  12. #4392
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    2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Stevemil505 View Post
    The Yanks did have insurance that covered part of his cost but he still counted toward the tax .
    Yankees 2005 estimated revenue - 277 million
    Yankees 2005 player payroll - 207.1 million

    Yankees 2019 estimated revenue - 683 million
    Yankees 2019 player payroll - 225.9 million.

    Annual revenues have nearly tripled and payroll is mostly the same. They are fine. They can pay the tax. Jacoby wasnít an anchor. Jacoby was an excuse. George Steinbrenner died. Thatís the big difference with the Yankees.
    Last edited by CP_414; 02-19-2021 at 03:13 PM.

  13. #4393
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Good for Happ.

    Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

  14. #4394
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    Good for Ian. One of only a few Cubs players who was worth a damn last year. He deserves what he wanted to be paid

  15. #4395
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    Mar 2019
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    CP-414, not quite as dramatic as you indicated, revenues up by a factor of 2.47 instead of 3 while payroll up by a factor of 1.09 instead of 1.0) but you point is taken.
    Last edited by Stevemil505; 02-19-2021 at 07:01 PM.

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