2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

[1908_Cubs]

I was a fan of Kieboom last year, so I guess I would have to say I would be pleased with getting him opposed to getting nothing

I am not very enthused with Kieboom. He's fine, I guess. His defensive value is questionable, and I think we've got some swing issues to work through with Kieboom. His launch angle is not good and as of today, I wonder truly what kind of power he'll hit for.

I think as is, he's a 2-3 win player. Which, is fine, but it's nothing to be overly jazzed about. He'd be a cheap option who projects as an MLB starter.

[chibears55]

I mean wtf... he’s not going to spend money and they keep saying changes are coming? Like this is so annoying.

You can make changes without tearing it down completely.


Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[1908_Cubs]

You can make changes without tearing it down completely.


Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

Not if you don't have any money, and the Cubs have been beating that drum for years now.

[CP_414]

You can make changes without tearing it down completely.


Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

I feel like we should define a “tear down.” What would constitute a tear down and what would constitute “a few changes?”

[1908_Cubs]

I feel like we should define a “tear down.” What would constitute a tear down and what would constitute “a few changes?”

Yeah I think we probably won't see a "full tear down". Because I think a full tear down is somehow where the Cubs, in the same offseason, dump Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, Darvish and Hendricks. Which I don't think is feasible. I can't see a world where they could move that much in the same year, in this market and drop to a $40m payroll.

What I think is that we will definitely see multiple of those players moved. While I don't think it's a "full tear down" if they deal Bryant, Darvish, Contreras and someone else. But that's more than a "few changes". That's a major change to the leadership of this franchise. Especially with Schwarber and Baez on one year deals. Maybe it's not a "full rebuild". But...it pretty much is.

[CP_414]

Yeah I think we probably won't see a "full tear down". Because I think a full tear down is somehow where the Cubs, in the same offseason, dump Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, Darvish and Hendricks. Which I don't think is feasible. I can't see a world where they could move that much in the same year, in this market and drop to a $40m payroll.

What I think is that we will definitely see multiple of those players moved. While I don't think it's a "full tear down" if they deal Bryant, Darvish, Contreras and someone else. But that's more than a "few changes". That's a major change to the leadership of this franchise. Especially with Schwarber and Baez on one year deals. Maybe it's not a "full rebuild". But...it pretty much is.

Right. I’d consider that a tear down too. Of these 8 players if you trade 3 of them I think you tore down:
KB, Rizzo, Javy, Schwarber, Darvish, Contreras, Hendricks, Happ

I’d guess the payroll ends up closer to $150 mil than the lux tax line and the Cubs go into 2021 with a win projection under .500. My guess today is that 3 or 4 of those 8 won’t be Cubs on opening day.

So is that a tear down? I’d say yes, but it could be argued that it is just “a few changes” if they move 3 of those 8 guys and barely add anyone.

Of those 8 I’d rank them in this order for most to least likely to be gone: KB, Schwarber, Contreras, Darvish, Javy, Happ, Rizzo, Hendricks.

[1908_Cubs]

Right. I’d consider that a tear down too. Of these 8 players if you trade 3 of them I think you tore down:
KB, Rizzo, Javy, Schwarber, Darvish, Contreras, Hendricks, Happ

I’d guess the payroll ends up closer to $150 mil than the lux tax line and the Cubs go into 2021 with a win projection under .500. My guess today is that 3 or 4 of those 8 won’t be Cubs on opening day.

So is that a tear down? I’d say yes, but it could be argued that it is just “a few changes” if they move 3 of those 8 guys and barely add anyone.

Of those 8 I’d rank them in this order for most to least likely to be gone: KB, Schwarber, Contreras, Darvish, Javy, Happ, Rizzo, Hendricks.

Absolutely. If they trade the top-3, that's a rebuild, through and through. Who's placing those guys? Maybe Kieboom, Caratini as a starter and some low level FA? Joy.

Imagine a lineup that looks like this:

Happ
Heyward
Rizzo
Baez
Low Level Platoon OF bat
Kieboom
Caratini
Hoerner

And tell me you're trying to win anything.

[CP_414]

Absolutely. If they trade the top-3, that's a rebuild, through and through. Who's placing those guys? Maybe Kieboom, Caratini as a starter and some low level FA? Joy.

Imagine a lineup that looks like this:

Happ
Heyward
Rizzo
Baez
Low Level Platoon OF bat
Kieboom
Caratini
Hoerner

And tell me you're trying to win anything.

Yep. I just thing it’s good to define. I think we’re heading down a road to a semantical argument about what was a rebuild and was was “just a couple changes.”

I’d think it would be nearly impossible to trade 7 or all 8 of those guys in a single offseason but 3-5 is possible.

[CubsRule08]

Absolutely. If they trade the top-3, that's a rebuild, through and through. Who's placing those guys? Maybe Kieboom, Caratini as a starter and some low level FA? Joy.

Imagine a lineup that looks like this:

Happ
Heyward
Rizzo
Baez
Low Level Platoon OF bat
Kieboom
Caratini
Hoerner

And tell me you're trying to win anything.

Idk about you, but I see 2021 NL Central champs with that lineup

[1908_Cubs]

Yep. I just thing it’s good to define. I think we’re heading down a road to a semantical argument about what was a rebuild and was was “just a couple changes.”

I’d think it would be nearly impossible to trade 7 or all 8 of those guys in a single offseason but 3-5 is possible.

Absolutely. And if we're arguing numbers, then that's stupid. There's a major difference in trading 3-5 of your absolutely best players and changing, for example:
- a 2b
- a backup catcher
- A #4 SP
- 7th Inning guy

Yeah, that's four moves, but that's "changes". Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras and Darvish is just about your entire leadership/core group outside of 2-3 guys. That's also 4 moves. One of those is "making some changes" the other is "setting the reset button". It's less about numbers, and all about the "whom".

You're right. The definition here is the key.

[chibears55]

I feel like we should define a “tear down.” What would constitute a tear down and what would constitute “a few changes?”

A tear down, from what I gather reading in here, is a few posters suggesting they're going to trade half their roster, have a thin payroll, and go back to losing 90 games with a rebuild

A few changes as far as position players goes..
would be, Schwarber, adding a 2Bmen, and maybe moving one of Bryant or Baez


Yes I think they're going to stay under the threshold but I dont see them trading a bunch of players to thin out the payroll and go back to losing 90 games for a couple seasons

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[CP_414]

A tear down, from what I gather reading in here, is a few posters suggesting they're going to trade half their roster, have a thin payroll, and go back to losing 90 games with a rebuild

A few changes as far as position players goes..
would be, Schwarber, adding a 2Bmen, and maybe moving one of Bryant or Baez


Yes I think they're going to stay under the threshold but I dont see them trading a bunch of players to thin out the payroll and go back to losing 90 games for a couple seasons

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

I don’t think anyone expects they’ll literally move half the roster. To me the question is how many of those core 8 guys are moved. To me, if it’s 3+ they “tore down” and if they don’t replace any of them they very well could lose 90 in 2021.

If the payroll drops to about $150 that’s about $70 million below 2020 and $90 million below 2019. That would more than qualify as a massive payroll drop.

[cubs1423]

I think Darvish would be the first person I’d trade after KB. Definitely before Contreras. If KB is gone, I see no reason to waste a year of Darvish in hopes that the Cubs are competitive in his age 35 and 36 seasons. I think that money can be allocated much better, or at least with less risk, for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

[huff]

I think Bryant is as good as gone. Schwarber too. I think you extend Rizzo and Baez. If I’m Hoyer I’m not necessarily looking for position players coming back to replace KB. Give me arms. I’ll take Crowe and Cronin from the nats. Crowe has a 3 upside, pitcher of the year in the Carolina league (#3 rated for them) and Cronin(#10 for the nats) who flashes two plus pitches and looks like a legit high end bullpen piece. Plus take back a contract to offset some money for the nats, either Castro (7m) or Will Harris (8m for two more years) probably would prefer Harris.
Deal saves you 10m and adds a couple of arms that will help sooner than later.
Schwarber is definitely a non tender possibility but would hope they would try and get something for him, maybe the Yankees , who have tried to get him before. Would explore a package for Andujar maybe? Or maybe just an arm like Cessa?

Then put Harris , Cessa in your pen 🤷*♂️ Saves about 17m but the pen looks strong with a healthy Wick and Cessa, plus if you move kimbrel Harris has closed before ?

Just thinking out loud I guess, definitely think it’s KB and schwarber that are gone.

[CP_414]

I think Darvish would be the first person I’d trade after KB. Definitely before Contreras. If KB is gone, I see no reason to waste a year of Darvish in hopes that the Cubs are competitive in his age 35 and 36 seasons. I think that money can be allocated much better, or at least with less risk, for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

I’m with 1908 that Contreras and Darvish kind of go hand in hand. If you trade Darvish then you aren’t contending in 2021. After 2021 Contreras is going into his free agent season when he’ll be a 30 year old catcher as a free agent. There’s a pretty good chance you won’t be great in 2022 either, so are you extending Contreras to get his 30+ year old seasons without competing in his age 29 and 30 years? Probably not.

If you trade Darvish you kind of have to trade Contreras and vice versa.