2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

[JD94]

Id rather the team try to win a bad division and then lose them rather then getting dumpy returns for them/salary dump them in a buyers market saturated with dumps.

Getting the kinds of returns we may get may very well not get us very far into a rebuild.

If the answer is "trade them all for junk returns" whilst tanking... thats still a direction. It doesn't make it a good one. The Cubs may very well suck for the next 3-5 years in that case. Maybe longer.. Going full tank isn't an easy rebound. And the last time the Cubs did it they had one of the best in the business running it and got quite lucky a few times. We can't expect that luck again.

So yeah, I think I'd prefer a "roll it back" to that, myself. If it was a market where the Cubs could Jumpstart a rebuild? It would make sense. I think they will very much struggle junpstarting that rebuild with the "trade everyone" approach; Darvish and Contreras would be the only 2 Id think would return much. Even then, in this market, I wonder how much they would bring back.

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Well yeah I’d rather them try to win too, but they’ve proven they aren’t going to spend money and they’ve been pretty clear they want to drop salary. If we are going to be realistic here, then the conversations we should be having is the conversation of who gets moved and what can we get for them. We have 1 year of KB and Javy and Rizzo (I think?). We have literally 2 dependable starters and not many more dependable relievers. I’m sorry, but that worries me.

[CP_414]

I’d think there would be some urgency for the Cubs to drop salary before the tender decisions are due on 12/2. If you can cut fairly significant payroll before 12/2 it makes it easy to tender everyone and then see what other deals you can make happen this offseason.

If you go into 12/2 with payroll uncertainty then they might be forced to non tender guys who they don’t know if they can move.

[1908_Cubs]

Well yeah I’d rather them try to win too, but they’ve proven they aren’t going to spend money and they’ve been pretty clear they want to drop salary. If we are going to be realistic here, then the conversations we should be having is the conversation of who gets moved and what can we get for them. We have 1 year of KB and Javy and Rizzo (I think?). We have literally 2 dependable starters and not many more dependable relievers. I’m sorry, but that worries me.

It worries me too. But this idea that they can just "pick a direction" and one of them be "sell everyone" worries me more. What do you think they're getting for one year of Baez? 1 year of Bryant? "It's better than nothing", sure, but isn't one more year where you hope they bounce back better than...garbage returns? They're not getting franchise shifting prospect returns for either guy right now.

In the end, yeah, I know there's going to be holes on the roster next year. But there's a world where you can get to a $175m payroll and bring back most of this team. Fill in the SP's with Abbott and reclamation. Play the bandaid bullpen game again (maybe add in Carraway and Marquez by June). Offense will be largely unchanged. Division is going to suck, so that team isn't pretty but it stands a chance. And I'd rather they go that way, as boring as it sounds, to just bring back the bulk of this team and then let them walk in 2020, then trading or non-tendering them and hitting some massive reset button and getting trash returns.

I think for everyone who wants them to pick a direction, they're going to be wildly disappointed when they see what the "to hell with 2021, let's reset this thing" actually looks like in this kind of a market.

[CP_414]

I think Darvish, Contreras, and Happ would bring back good to very good returns. Hendricks would bring back a great return but he’s hard to trade. Javy might get you something decent, especially if you take bad a small bad contract in return.

Schwarber probably won’t bring much back. It’s probably best to bring him back to start the year if possible. If you believe in Kb I think they need to approach him with some extension ideas. The trade returns on him will probably be pretty garbage right now. You either sell him for nearly nothing, find a reasonable extension, or just wait and hope he starts hot and a July trade brings back something good, but that might mean you get nothing at all for him.

[1908_Cubs]

I think Darvish, Contreras, and Happ would bring back good to very good returns. Hendricks would bring back a great return but he’s hard to trade. Javy might get you something decent, especially if you take bad a small bad contract in return.

Schwarber probably won’t bring much back. It’s probably best to bring him back to start the year if possible. If you believe in Kb I think they need to approach him with some extension ideas. The trade returns on him will probably be pretty garbage right now. You either sell him for nearly nothing, find a reasonable extension, or just wait and hope he starts hot and a July trade brings back something good, but that might mean you get nothing at all for him.

I'm not even sure Darvish is going to bring back the kind of return we want. I know he should, but I don't trust this market right now. In any way. Is Darvish great? Yes. Is his contract a steal? It should be. Do I trust owners to want to spend any money right now? Nope, and I think this drives down the market.

I also don't expect the Cubs to be interested in any bad contracts returning. I think if they're dealing contracts, it's going to be to make money go away, and not retain jack.

In the end, while Darvish and Contreras, and maybe Happ should bring nice returns, there's going to be a lot of teams offering a lot of players this year (probably more than others). I think prices will be driven down, prospects will hold more value than ever, and I'm not sure there's going to be a high demand for many guys. I hope I'm wrong and the Cubs, if they so choose, get good deals for these guys, but it's setting up to be a buyers market extreme and I'm just not sure anyone's getting great deals here with the number of buyers low, and money so hard to find for the poor downtrodden ownership.

[chibears55]

KB losing value ?

https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/s...300177920?s=19

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[CP_414]

I'm not even sure Darvish is going to bring back the kind of return we want. I know he should, but I don't trust this market right now. In any way. Is Darvish great? Yes. Is his contract a steal? It should be. Do I trust owners to want to spend any money right now? Nope, and I think this drives down the market.

I also don't expect the Cubs to be interested in any bad contracts returning. I think if they're dealing contracts, it's going to be to make money go away, and not retain jack.

In the end, while Darvish and Contreras, and maybe Happ should bring nice returns, there's going to be a lot of teams offering a lot of players this year (probably more than others). I think prices will be driven down, prospects will hold more value than ever, and I'm not sure there's going to be a high demand for many guys. I hope I'm wrong and the Cubs, if they so choose, get good deals for these guys, but it's setting up to be a buyers market extreme and I'm just not sure anyone's getting great deals here with the number of buyers low, and money so hard to find for the poor downtrodden ownership.

I’m eager to see what the market looks like. I’m guessing Bauer is still going to end up in 9 figures, so Darvish should be a very valuable alternative. Unless the Rays actually move Snell (which I doubt) I’m not sure there will be a similarly valuable pitcher on the trade block. Same deal with Realmuto and Contreras. The catcher market is basically Realmuto and Yadi so a player like Contreras at $7 mil in 2021 should have a good amount of value.

For the guys a year from FA that might get moved, I’m hoping the Cubs will have already dropped enough salary that they’ll eat a little on those guys or take back a little money to get some value back. Not big money, just something like an overpaid $5-7 mil player on an expiring deal. If they actually make a bunch of trades they’ll need to fill in the roster anyway. Might as well take back some bad 1 year money to fill in the roster and get better prospects in the deals. We’ll see though.

Ultimately the question is what’s the quickest path to a new window. Is it by keeping Darvish/Contreras/Happ, extend Rizzo and maybe Javy and then fill in gaps next year? Or is it by dealing Yu, Contreras, Happ, plus whoever else and then spending aggressively the next 2 years?

I wonder if we’ll see more MLB player for MLB player and prospect for prospect deals than normal this winter too. If you keep Contreras maybe a team like KC with a ton of pitching prospects would flip one for Amaya.

[CP_414]

Drew Smyly got $11 mil from Atlanta. That’s a decent amount of money in this market. He looked really good last year in a really small sample.

Speaking of pitchers the Cubs have tried to rehab, I’d like to see them give Aaron Brooks another shot next year. He was pretty terrible in Iowa a few years ago, but just had a dominating season in the KBO. He might be a cheap guy with some upside who can eat innings next year. Or he might be terrible.

[Stratos]

3 openings in rotation.

Lester's value at this point is that he can eat innings, and he's a vet. Personally I don't resign him. He'll demand at least a few million.

I think we need to acquire 2 more starters in FA (or trade). We need another good starter towards the front of the rotation to give us 3 quality starters. Money freed from Lester/Chatwood/Quintana gives us that ability if we go the FA route. Trade route is also possible.

I would also sign a value guy to compete with Alzolay and Mills for the #4 and 5 slots in ST and to give us some rotation depth, and the odd man out could fit into the pen. Somebody with upside and not too expensive like a Chatwood etc (guy coming off injury or off year). Like a Jeffress project but in the rotation. There's no down side, worst case scenario is one of our starters gets injured and we need the extra guy OR we have an extra starter to tangle at the trade deadline if need be OR we have lots of depth.

[Stratos]

I’m eager to see what the market looks like.

Yes will be interesting. It's definitely a buyer's market, which is terrible because we're sellers. Timing of this pandemic plus the short season in 2020 has really screwed the Cubs.

[CubsRule08]

Padres P Mike Clevinger will undergo Tommy John surgery and will be out for 2021 season

[JD94]

It worries me too. But this idea that they can just "pick a direction" and one of them be "sell everyone" worries me more. What do you think they're getting for one year of Baez? 1 year of Bryant? "It's better than nothing", sure, but isn't one more year where you hope they bounce back better than...garbage returns? They're not getting franchise shifting prospect returns for either guy right now.

In the end, yeah, I know there's going to be holes on the roster next year. But there's a world where you can get to a $175m payroll and bring back most of this team. Fill in the SP's with Abbott and reclamation. Play the bandaid bullpen game again (maybe add in Carraway and Marquez by June). Offense will be largely unchanged. Division is going to suck, so that team isn't pretty but it stands a chance. And I'd rather they go that way, as boring as it sounds, to just bring back the bulk of this team and then let them walk in 2020, then trading or non-tendering them and hitting some massive reset button and getting trash returns.

I think for everyone who wants them to pick a direction, they're going to be wildly disappointed when they see what the "to hell with 2021, let's reset this thing" actually looks like in this kind of a market.

Maybe I’m just in the minority here, but I’d rather not bring back KB and Javy to go for it another year with this flawed roster. Being bad for next year would be a lot better if it meant a quick turnaround for 2022 and beyond. Yes, this division is very winnable, but even if we do sneak in, we are just way too flawed to compete with LAD, Atl, & San Diego. I think it’s potentially a monumental mistake to keep our roster as is and take 1 more shot at it. It can and will get really ugly if that happens. You’re talking about KB, Javy, and Rizzo walking for nothing. Darvish with 1 less year of value. Potentially no real pieces to build around outside of Contreras. Depleted bullpen and rotation. I want to stay away from that, even if it means giving up a season that we could likely contend in.

There’s ways to get better returns for KB and Javy and you know that. A team like Toronto could get aggressive and give a good return for KB because they want to lock him up to play 3rd base for them since Vlad is moving to 1st base. We can eat money to better the return if necessary. We will have enough wiggle room to stay under and eat some money in some places for better prospects.

There’s a few directions we can go with Colorado to get Arenado and maybe Gray to where they save money long term and we get Arenado who is locked up for 6 more years.

Darvish and Happ should bring back nice pieces to build on. Contreras could bring back a good player.

There’s moves to be made that doesn’t necessarily have to be KB for a prospect in the 90-130 range just to dump his salary.

[1908_Cubs]

Maybe I’m just in the minority here, but I’d rather not bring back KB and Javy to go for it another year with this flawed roster. Being bad for next year would be a lot better if it meant a quick turnaround for 2022 and beyond. Yes, this division is very winnable, but even if we do sneak in, we are just way too flawed to compete with LAD, Atl, & San Diego. I think it’s potentially a monumental mistake to keep our roster as is and take 1 more shot at it. It can and will get really ugly if that happens. You’re talking about KB, Javy, and Rizzo walking for nothing. Darvish with 1 less year of value. Potentially no real pieces to build around outside of Contreras. Depleted bullpen and rotation. I want to stay away from that, even if it means giving up a season that we could likely contend in.

There’s ways to get better returns for KB and Javy and you know that. A team like Toronto could get aggressive and give a good return for KB because they want to lock him up to play 3rd base for them since Vlad is moving to 1st base. We can eat money to better the return if necessary. We will have enough wiggle room to stay under and eat some money in some places for better prospects.

There’s a few directions we can go with Colorado to get Arenado and maybe Gray to where they save money long term and we get Arenado who is locked up for 6 more years.

Darvish and Happ should bring back nice pieces to build on. Contreras could bring back a good player.

There’s moves to be made that doesn’t necessarily have to be KB for a prospect in the 90-130 range just to dump his salary.

I find the Arenado thing 100% implausible. Do I think it could make sense? Sure. Do I think Rickett's is accepting that contract right now, no matter what salary they dump? Nope. I think you can make a lot of arguments on why it should work. But I find it completely internet fodder in the sense of; I don't think Rickett's is going to see it that way and I find no way to think it'll fit in. So while I appreciate a lot of what has been said about it by a lot of people I respect, I think we're living in a fantasy land considering it an option. It's not because it doesn't make sense; it does. But I think the goal is to slash that spending, and I don't think the Cubs will take on that contract right now, no matter what it ends up looking like. It'll still be 6/$100m or whatever, and I just cannot see this team accepting that on the books.

I think there are essentially 2 things that will happen with Bryant; you'll get a failed prospect or he'll be non-tendered. And I think Baez will bring back a similarly uninteresting prospect.

But no, I dont "know that". I don't think the Jays will bring in Bryant; Vlad Jr has already stated he wants to move back to 3b. Do I think the Blue Jays are going to get aggressive in that fashion and upset Vlad? Not really, no. Especially for a player on a one year contract, with no guarantee of an extension. I think Toronto is entirely wishful thinking.

I think most of what we want on this board right now is wishful thinking, frankly. I think in the end, people are going to be downright disappointed in what any of those guys will return. I fully hope to eat my words. In the end, I'm pretty sure I won't be on this one. I think this is going to be one pathetic trade market, as teams will be clutching their prospects more than ever, teams will be hesitant to take on multi-year contracts (even a Darvish deal) with the potential of a 2022 lockout, and teams will be largely uninterested in players on their last year coming off of what were disasters of seasons (they're going to use that to their advantage). I also think the market will be flooded as more teams look to offload than ever.

Do I hope to be wrong? Sure. I hope we can quote this post in mid January and say "1908, you fool, you moron, look they traded Bryant for great prospects!" I think in the end, people are going to see what the Cubs do with Bryant and watch the team they trot out next year and simply wish they had just brought it back, as uninspiring of a choice it is. I want to make it clear; just rolling it back isn't a good idea. I don't want to do that. But I also think it's the best of the realistic options right now, for a team who has an ownership I expect to slash salary at every corner, during a market when many teams will be playing the same game, and the few teams who have the ability to spend will play off the market to their absolute very advantage.

I think we're about to see the worst market we can imagine to be a seller in, and we're going to be one anyways. It's a recipe for a miserable 3 months.

[JD94]

I find the Arenado thing 100% implausible. Do I think it could make sense? Sure. Do I think Rickett's is accepting that contract right now, no matter what salary they dump? Nope. I think you can make a lot of arguments on why it should work. But I find it completely internet fodder in the sense of; I don't think Rickett's is going to see it that way and I find no way to think it'll fit in. So while I appreciate a lot of what has been said about it by a lot of people I respect, I think we're living in a fantasy land considering it an option. It's not because it doesn't make sense; it does. But I think the goal is to slash that spending, and I don't think the Cubs will take on that contract right now, no matter what it ends up looking like. It'll still be 6/$100m or whatever, and I just cannot see this team accepting that on the books.

I think there are essentially 2 things that will happen with Bryant; you'll get a failed prospect or he'll be non-tendered. And I think Baez will bring back a similarly uninteresting prospect.

But no, I dont "know that". I don't think the Jays will bring in Bryant; Vlad Jr has already stated he wants to move back to 3b. Do I think the Blue Jays are going to get aggressive in that fashion and upset Vlad? Not really, no. Especially for a player on a one year contract, with no guarantee of an extension. I think Toronto is entirely wishful thinking.

I think most of what we want on this board right now is wishful thinking, frankly. I think in the end, people are going to be downright disappointed in what any of those guys will return. I fully hope to eat my words. In the end, I'm pretty sure I won't be on this one. I think this is going to be one pathetic trade market, as teams will be clutching their prospects more than ever, teams will be hesitant to take on multi-year contracts (even a Darvish deal) with the potential of a 2022 lockout, and teams will be largely uninterested in players on their last year coming off of what were disasters of seasons (they're going to use that to their advantage). I also think the market will be flooded as more teams look to offload than ever.

Do I hope to be wrong? Sure. I hope we can quote this post in mid January and say "1908, you fool, you moron, look they traded Bryant for great prospects!" I think in the end, people are going to see what the Cubs do with Bryant and watch the team they trot out next year and simply wish they had just brought it back, as uninspiring of a choice it is. I want to make it clear; just rolling it back isn't a good idea. I don't want to do that. But I also think it's the best of the realistic options right now, for a team who has an ownership I expect to slash salary at every corner, during a market when many teams will be playing the same game, and the few teams who have the ability to spend will play off the market to their absolute very advantage.

I think we're about to see the worst market we can imagine to be a seller in, and we're going to be one anyways. It's a recipe for a miserable 3 months.

I don’t totally disagree with you. Honestly none of us know what to expect. With the pandemic and massive loss of money this year and a potential lockout looming, I could absolutely see this being a really tough trade market. I also didn’t think Mookie Betts would get paid but he did.

I’ll still stand by my point of getting something for KB and Javy is better than getting nothing. When I said Toronto for KB, it was just the first team that come to mind. It wasn’t like that was set in stone. There could be a number of suitors. Maybe Tampa would be interested in 1 year of KB while they are in their window. Maybe the Mets get aggressive and go for him. Maybe Atlanta would do it considering they need to replace Ozuna in the middle of their lineup. Maybe the Dodgers move on from Turner and would be interested. I mean I know that’s a lot of “maybes” but we just don’t know.

Any way you put it, running this same team back out again next year just sounds worse than not getting great returns from players we trade. I just don’t see what running them back out does for the long term outlook. At least you have a chance when you get somebody back with control. You don’t have a chance when they walk. You get nothing. That’s my main point.

I’ll be honest. I’m usually an optimist. I’m finding it harder and harder to see the light right now. Every where I look, I see problems. Many are things you mentioned. Like we won’t likely get good returns in a trade and, to my point, keeping them doesn’t really do anything for us either. I could go on and on, but we all know where the problems are. I guess after the first move is made, then we will have a better idea of what we are looking at.

[Dfan25]

Theo to step down November 20th . Hoyer to take over.


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