2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

[Dmac]

I know they are poor* and won't spend, but I would love if they picked up Alberto. He kills lefties. It won't happen though.

[1908_Cubs]

Ok, cause baseball reference only has him above 2 once in 19 at 2.1, He was a 1.8 in 18

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BR WAR is significantly worse. Id recommended not using it. Its offense is based on OPS+ and not wRC+ (wRC+ was created to fix the inherent issues of OPS+ by using OPS as the base). Inferior inputs equal inferior output.

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[thawv]

My first year was 2014 and my last was 2018. I wasn't even going to do 2018 but decided to. Then I could tell they weren't as committed to winning as they should be and like you said, just raising the prices so I was done. Going to a WS game and several playoff games was good enough for me anyway.

I hear ya. My first year was 2013, and I gave them up after 2017. The 29% hike left a real bad taste in my mouth.

[chibears55]

As it stands now according to FanGraph

Cubs have 14 players under contract
Their estimated payroll stands at 156 M
Their estimated LT payroll stands at 164 M

So, I dont know how they stay around this amount needing 11 more players unless they move a Bryant, or Darvish and sign a bunch of minimal salary players

Also, their depth chart has Bote in LF and that bench..Yikes

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[1908_Cubs]

As it stands now according to FanGraph

Cubs have 14 players under contract
Their estimated payroll stands at 156 M
Their estimated LT payroll stands at 164 M

So, I dont know how they stay around this amount needing 11 more players unless they move a Bryant, or Darvish and sign a bunch of minimal salary players

Also, their depth chart has Bote in LF and that bench..Yikes

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Bryant is likely as good as gone. And I expect a few short term deals.

Bring in an OF'er: Reddick/Dahl/Maybin etc on a 1/$3.5m deal or something
Bring in a MIF to replace Kipnis: Cabrera/Gosselin/Holt etc on a 1/$2m or something
Dumpster dive in the BP like last year: Find guys like Tepera/Winkler and sign them to non-guaranteed deals. Maybe 3-4 of them.
Add a SP reclamation/veteran/trade flip: Lester/Arrieta/Quintana type: 1/$5-6m

Probably get 1 MLB player back from Bryant, so a Kieboom or Robles type who start. Cory Abbott and Mills join the rotation. The above probably costs $10-13m in guarantees. So out goes another $18m in comes $12m. Puts you right back near $150m. And you have your roster. That's 7-8 guys right there. Maybe more.

Maybe you get really crazy and send out Contreras or Darvish too. But I think trades will be a slog.

But I think this is the plan this year. No one gets more than 1 year. No one is "good". And the Cubs come out with a 75-80 win team on the backs of Baez/Rizzo/Contreras/Darvish and Hendricks. Many more will be dealt. And the tax will be reset, the Cubs will head into a new CBA with basically empty books, and go from there.

[Stratos]

Because he's still useful and 27. Getting useful players on low contracts is always good.

But I doubt it'll happen. Hes done here.

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Our offensive is fundamentally broken and lifeless. He'll do well somewhere else.

[Stratos]

NT Tepera makes zero sense

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Got an MVP vote, not good for the Cubs arbitration case hahaha. He made 900k last year. I assume they're looking for dirt cheap reclamations again. I think he's a pretty good reliever. Sounds like the Cubs are going mega-cheap for 2021. Buyers market, probably going to be lots of guys like him they can pick up cheap.

It's not a dumb strategy, they can acquire some good players on the cheap this offseason. Buy low sell high.

[Stratos]

Yah, I don't see why he would come back. It's not like the Cubs were ever looking to pay him more when he had a great season and was super undervalued. Somebody's going to get a very good righty masher for 3-5 million. The Cubs will replace him with somebody cheaper and worse while pocketing the difference.

It would make sense for him to sign for 1 yr somewhere given last season, maybe with some kind of option.

[chibears55]

Was looking at what stadiums Schwarber has good numbers at with a chunk of PAs. there isn't many, he obviously has the bulk of PA against divisional teams, nothing special, he kills the reds with power but overall very low average against them and the other 3 teams.

His best park is Shea,
36 PA 367AVG 1.144 OPS

Best AL parks is the Whitesox and Indians

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[1908_Cubs]

Our offensive is fundamentally broken and lifeless. He'll do well somewhere else.

That's both an overreaction and over rating the issues that Schwarber contributed too. The offensive isn't "broken" so much as it is "average". Which, yes, is disappointing, but let's not act like they're some sort of travesty. They feel inconsistent, but don't seem to be as inconsistent as people like to pretend based on things like standard deviation of league scoring. They have some K issues, and seem to struggle on breaking balls, but still have managed to remain around the average at worst. Especially when we consider how weird last year was the sample size. I think it's best to take a lot of 2020 with grains of salt all around. In 2019, the Cubs offense was also "broken" according to many, but Schwarber wasn't the issue. At all. Secondly, losing Schwarber and replacing him for a worse offensive talent is not going to fix anything. It's shuffling papers around to pretend something's new. It's also not all Schwarber's problem. He definitely was bad last year. But losing Schwarber doesn't make Javier Baez swing at sliders less. Lastly, even if Schwarber is somehow the main issue, losing him for simply nothing is not the answer, either, when you can likely trade him for something. Whether now, or mid-season. He's been worth between $13-25m each year. He wasn't going to break that level in arb this year. He was going to be surplus value.

If you want to fix the offense, I'm fine making some changes. But get value for the players you want to move, and actually bring talent in. The Cubs will likely replace Schwarber, who's a well above average hitting OF'er against RHP with at best, an average hitting OF'er, and probably, a below average one, on the cheap. They've "fixed" nothing. And got nothing of value.

The Cubs being cheap is never acceptable. And should not be defended in anyway.

[Stratos]

Worse???
Not saying he terrible but it not like his bar was high

Might not happen this offseason but they can easily upgrade in 2022

The only thing that suk about NT Schwarber is that they're getting nothing in return for him except saving some money, assuming his replacement is paid less then 8 mil

One positive is that no Schwarber opens up a ton of possibilities in trades. We can go nab a corner OF or CF and slot them in. The Cubs are extremely flexible right now, they can literally trade for just about any position they want.

Even if they don't trade somebody in the core, if they acquire someone new Bryant can always play LF, Javy can play 2B or 3B etc.

I think this winter the focus will be to reset payroll and to try to trade Baez/Bryant/Rizzo (I assume not all of them will be dealt) Then next winter the Cubs will be in a good position to fill any holes with FA.

I get the Cubs wanting to reset, i'm fine with that, just do it now and get it over with. It should have been done last offseason.

[Stratos]

That's both an overreaction and over rating the issues that Schwarber contributed too. The offensive isn't "broken" so much as it is "average". Which, yes, is disappointing, but let's not act like they're some sort of travesty.

I get all your points. But this offense has been a dysfunctional underachieving hot mess since mid-2018. No one player is to blame, it just doesn't work for whatever reason.

Wish we didn't punt him when his value was at an all-time low, but oh well.

[thawv]

That's both an overreaction and over rating the issues that Schwarber contributed too. The offensive isn't "broken" so much as it is "average". Which, yes, is disappointing, but let's not act like they're some sort of travesty. They feel inconsistent, but don't seem to be as inconsistent as people like to pretend based on things like standard deviation of league scoring. They have some K issues, and seem to struggle on breaking balls, but still have managed to remain around the average at worst. Especially when we consider how weird last year was the sample size. I think it's best to take a lot of 2020 with grains of salt all around. In 2019, the Cubs offense was also "broken" according to many, but Schwarber wasn't the issue. At all. Secondly, losing Schwarber and replacing him for a worse offensive talent is not going to fix anything. It's shuffling papers around to pretend something's new. It's also not all Schwarber's problem. He definitely was bad last year. But losing Schwarber doesn't make Javier Baez swing at sliders less. Lastly, even if Schwarber is somehow the main issue, losing him for simply nothing is not the answer, either, when you can likely trade him for something. Whether now, or mid-season. He's been worth between $13-25m each year. He wasn't going to break that level in arb this year. He was going to be surplus value.

If you want to fix the offense, I'm fine making some changes. But get value for the players you want to move, and actually bring talent in. The Cubs will likely replace Schwarber, who's a well above average hitting OF'er against RHP with at best, an average hitting OF'er, and probably, a below average one, on the cheap. They've "fixed" nothing. And got nothing of value.

The Cubs being cheap is never acceptable. And should not be defended in anyway.

But they're not trying to fix the offense. They're trying to fix their payroll. Your plan a few posts up looks about right. Bring in crap players, for short term, and very cheap. Readdress this after the 2021 season when their books are very favorable.

[PeanutPunch33]

I’m excited with these moves. Schwarber is an okay player but the cubs need to find ways to get more contact into the current lineup. And I hope they keep Bryant and Rizzo, take 1 year where they are a .500 team and then come back in 2022 ready to compete

[JD94]

Was looking at what stadiums Schwarber has good numbers at with a chunk of PAs. there isn't many, he obviously has the bulk of PA against divisional teams, nothing special, he kills the reds with power but overall very low average against them and the other 3 teams.

His best park is Shea,
36 PA 367AVG 1.144 OPS

Best AL parks is the Whitesox and Indians

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Ehhh bet the Yankees grab him. He will hit 40 dingers in that short porch in RF.