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  1. #376
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Basically what Smith wrote, he needs to get his swings and misses down

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    Yes and no. Smith didn't hit on how bad that swing and miss is in the tweet. 21 year olds who K at 30% at the DSL level are really bad at swing and miss. He's playing against babies, in the lowest level, and he's a fully grown adult. Striking out 62 times in 210 PA's in the DSL is...really bad. He's a lottery ticket and has some big power, but that's all he is. An extreme lottery ticket.

    I think it's important with Stevens to mention just how bad the swing and miss issues are here. Maybe he over comes them. And I don't blame Smith, it's a tweet, only so many characters, either.
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 10-19-2020 at 12:23 PM.

  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Yes, I remember Ademan, and Eddy Martinez were the big names coming out of these signings

    Lot of these guys are still just 21, 22 so still time for them, and this year obviously didn't help.

    Yep, C.Morel, Howard, Davis, Nwogu, Amaya
    That a group I'm keeping an eye on

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    Not that big on Amaya. He might turn into a catch and throw guy. Not sure he can hit.

  3. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    Not that big on Amaya. He might turn into a catch and throw guy. Not sure he can hit.
    He posted up a 122 wRC+ in A+ as a 20 year old. He's been an under-ager (significantly) at each stop, and so far has been a well above league average hitter, as a catcher. Yes, the batting average is low, but he's been amazingly young, managed to increase his walk rate, lower his K rate, and hit for more power. All while at Myrtle Beach, which is not a hitter friendly environment.

    Is he Trout? No. But I'm high on the bat for a catcher. I think a 105-110 wRC+ bat with well above average fielding is realistic for Amaya right now, and that's probably a solid 3 fWAR catcher. I don't see hardly any reason to find fault in anything he's done. He's probably not a superstar, but I think he's going to be a well above average catcher if things continue to head down this path.

  4. #379
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsRule08 View Post
    Yeah, but I think a long term deal is the obvious choice.

    I donít think teams are willing to commit to a 1 year deal at around $37-40 mil from what Iíve read, seeing as he wants to maximize his salary in 1 year deal scenarios
    Given his pitching history, that has been really up and down, if i were a GM i'd never give him big money or treat him as a front-of-the-rotation starter. I think a 1-year deal where he proves he's for real would be in his benefit, and he could really cash in. Or even any kind of deal where Bauer can opt-out after the first year. He's had 2 good seasons in his career and the rest have been ERA's over 4.

  5. #380
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    He posted up a 122 wRC+ in A+ as a 20 year old. He's been an under-ager (significantly) at each stop, and so far has been a well above league average hitter, as a catcher. Yes, the batting average is low, but he's been amazingly young, managed to increase his walk rate, lower his K rate, and hit for more power. All while at Myrtle Beach, which is not a hitter friendly environment.

    Is he Trout? No. But I'm high on the bat for a catcher. I think a 105-110 wRC+ bat with well above average fielding is realistic for Amaya right now, and that's probably a solid 3 fWAR catcher. I don't see hardly any reason to find fault in anything he's done. He's probably not a superstar, but I think he's going to be a well above average catcher if things continue to head down this path.
    True he's been underage. .750 OPS, low average, some pop, takes walks. .750 OPS for a good defensive catcher I'd take. 3 WAR is Contreras territory, I doubt that. We'll see I guess. Defense will get him to the MLB at least. He could be everything from a good starting catcher to a catch and throw guy. So far he's hit better than Martin Maldonado did in the minors, which is at least promising.

  6. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    True he's been underage. .750 OPS, low average, some pop, takes walks. .750 OPS for a good defensive catcher I'd take. 3 WAR is Contreras territory, I doubt that. We'll see I guess. Defense will get him to the MLB at least. He could be everything from a good starting catcher to a catch and throw guy. So far he's hit better than Martin Maldonado did in the minors, which is at least promising.
    We're well past the days of thinking OPS meant much considering all of the better numbers we have available that put OBP and SLG on equal playing fields. That's why we use wOBA and wRC+. Especially for a league like Myrtle Beach which is quite hitter-suppressant. He's well above league average. His wRC+ of 122 is incredibly impressive for a 20 year old in A+. Moreso for a 20 year old catcher in Myrtle Beach.

    And yes, with his defensive ability, a 105-110 wRC+ and good defense is 3 win territory. Christian Vazquez put up 3 wins with a 102 wRC+. Roberto Perez a 3 win season with a 98 wRC+. Amaya's got a great arm and supposedly a good framer. If he's a league average hitter, yeah, he'll take 3 wins. Contreras loses a lot of value because he's traditionally been a bad defensive catcher.

    Lastly, Maldinado posted wRC+s in the 80s and 90s in the minors. He was over 100 like, one time. There's no reason to even mention him.

  7. #382
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    We're well past the days of thinking OPS meant much considering all of the better numbers we have available that put OBP and SLG on equal playing fields. That's why we use wOBA and wRC+. Especially for a league like Myrtle Beach which is quite hitter-suppressant. He's well above league average. His wRC+ of 122 is incredibly impressive for a 20 year old in A+. Moreso for a 20 year old catcher in Myrtle Beach.

    And yes, with his defensive ability, a 105-110 wRC+ and good defense is 3 win territory. Christian Vazquez put up 3 wins with a 102 wRC+. Roberto Perez a 3 win season with a 98 wRC+. Amaya's got a great arm and supposedly a good framer. If he's a league average hitter, yeah, he'll take 3 wins. Contreras loses a lot of value because he's traditionally been a bad defensive catcher.

    Lastly, Maldinado posted wRC+s in the 80s and 90s in the minors. He was over 100 like, one time. There's no reason to even mention him.
    Good break down on Amaya. I would take that all day.

  8. #383
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    Quote Originally Posted by JD94 View Post
    Good break down on Amaya. I would take that all day.
    Me too. Amaya probably will never be a superstar. But I think he's got a good shot to carve out a very solid career for a catcher. Strong defensely and league average (which is above average for his position) offensively.

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  9. #384
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    2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

    I think the plan with Amaya probably depends on the plan for Contreras. If you extend Contreras for an extra year or two you are probably ok trying to use Amaya in a deal to get someone at a position of need. With Quintero and Hearn the Cubs should have a nice pipeline of catching prospects coming through the system and Contreras, if extended, would be locked in as the MLB catcher for the next few years.

    If Contreras is dealt then Amaya is going to have the first chance to earn that MLB job in the next 2 years and Quintero or Hearn will need to take it away from him.

  10. #385
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I think the plan with Amaya probably depends on the plan for Contreras. If you extend Contreras for an extra year or two you are probably ok trying to use Amaya in a deal to get someone at a position of need. With Quintero and Hearn the Cubs should have a nice pipeline of catching prospects coming through the system and Contreras, if extended, would be locked in as the MLB catcher for the next few years.

    If Contreras is dealt then Amaya is going to have the first chance to earn that MLB job in the next 2 years and Quintero or Hearn will need to take it away from him.
    Kinda wish theyd make their management decision now with Theo and Jed before the offseason moves begin..
    Only because I think some of the moves this offseason will be table setting for next offseason moves, and obviously what their plans are, most likely wouldn't be what whomever takes over plan could be.
    Unless of course Jed takes control

    As far as Contreras goes, I think next season will have a big determination on whether or not they consider extending him.

    If they do trade Bryant and Amaya continues to progress next season, I actually wouldnt mind seeing Contreras move to 3B in 2022

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  11. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Kinda wish theyd make their management decision now with Theo and Jed before the offseason moves begin..
    Only because I think some of the moves this offseason will be table setting for next offseason moves, and obviously what their plans are, most likely wouldn't be what whomever takes over plan could be.
    Unless of course Jed takes control

    As far as Contreras goes, I think next season will have a big determination on whether or not they consider extending him.

    If they do trade Bryant and Amaya continues to progress next season, I actually wouldnt mind seeing Contreras move to 3B in 2022

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    You keep mentioning the Contreras at 3b idea, but I think itís a terrible idea.

    His framing was very good this year and adds a ton of value to him as a catcher. He hasnít played more than 10 games at 3b since he was 18 (heís 28 now). In that season when he was 18 he committed 19 errors in 385 innings at 3b. Thatís like 19 errors in 6 weeks worth of games.

  12. #387
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    You keep mentioning the Contreras at 3b idea, but I think itís a terrible idea.

    His framing was very good this year and adds a ton of value to him as a catcher. He hasnít played more than 10 games at 3b since he was 18 (heís 28 now). In that season when he was 18 he committed 19 errors in 385 innings at 3b. Thatís like 19 errors in 6 weeks worth of games.
    I don't mind him staying at catcher, I guess it just that I dont want them to trade him or Amaya, and it just a way to keep them both.





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  13. #388
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    2020 Chicago Cubs Offseason Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    I don't mind him staying at catcher, I guess it just that I dont want them to trade him or Amaya, and it just a way to keep them both.





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    Theyíll have a DH, so they could keep both, but it seems like a waste of resources to me. If you keep Contreras, he should be a 120 game catcher. If you have a 120 game catcher locked up for 4-5 years, and 2 of your best very young prospects are big bonus $$ catchers are you better off with another top 100 prospect catcher or are you better off flipping him for someone who could be a more regular player?

    There arenít a lot of prospect for prospect trades, but if you keep Contreras, Iíd love to see Amaya flipped for a similar rated prospect at another position. If they trade Contreras then Amaya needs to get ready to step in by 2022. Maybe something like the Zac Gallen for Jazz Chisholm deal with Amaya for a borderline top 100 pitcher if Contreras is extended.
    Last edited by CP_414; 10-20-2020 at 04:00 PM.

  14. #389
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    I saw someone tweet something like this after the 2014 season with the Cubs top prospects then, and shared it with the board I was on.
    Of course i got alot of grief for it from them cause they had some Aholes and thought i was saying they were going to field a team of prospects..
    Funny thing was, they ended up fielding all at some point and most won them a WS and a few are still with them today.

    It not as stacked or near ready now as that group was, but it always cool to look ahead and see who their top young prospects are at each position, and obviously there could be others that you may list then what I have.
    They dont really have a high 1B choice, these 2 were in the team top 50 and Durna was graded well with high potential

    C Amaya
    1B Rivas or Durna
    2B Hoerner
    SS Howard
    3B C.Morel
    LF Davis
    CF Roederer
    RF Nwogu

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    Last edited by chibears55; 10-20-2020 at 06:16 PM.

  15. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    I saw someone tweet something like this after the 2014 season with the Cubs top prospects then, and shared it with the board I was on.
    Of course i got alot of grief for it from them cause they had some Aholes and thought i was saying they were going to field a team of prospects..
    Funny thing was, they ended up fielding all at some point and most won them a WS and a few are still with them today.

    It not as stacked or near ready now as that group was, but it always cool to look ahead and see who their top young prospects are at each position, and obviously there could be others that you may list then what I have.
    They dont really have a high 1B choice, these 2 were in the team top 50 and Durna was graded well with high potential

    C Amaya
    1B Rivas or Durna
    2B Hoerner
    SS Howard
    3B C.Morel
    LF Davis
    CF Roederer
    RF Nwogu

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    As of today, thatís a pretty depressing list.

    They arenít where they were in 2014 both in terms of mlb talent and Milb talent, so fortunately this exact lineup will never happen.

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