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  1. #1231
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    Jun 2013
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    9
    Nothing for nothing but I see people keep mentioning Stroman like heís some elite pitcher. I hope we donít resign him after this season. He quit on the team last year. I donít buy his explanation for not playing. I wouldíve respected him if he wouldíve been honest. Now, with that said, I think Stroman is a #4 on a WS type team and is replaceable next season vs the money/years itíll cost to keep someone of his talent.

  2. #1232
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    Dec 2008
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    Philadelphia
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    117,457
    yea well... ya know what... **** you guys esp metsfan and soia... wowowow we got an owner who isnt a moron.... : (

    **** me

  3. #1233
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    5,987
    Quote Originally Posted by MAZNBLU242 View Post
    Nothing for nothing but I see people keep mentioning Stroman like heís some elite pitcher. I hope we donít resign him after this season. He quit on the team last year. I donít buy his explanation for not playing. I wouldíve respected him if he wouldíve been honest. Now, with that said, I think Stroman is a #4 on a WS type team and is replaceable next season vs the money/years itíll cost to keep someone of his talent.
    Iím not sure about Stroman either
    Heíd certainly be my #4 to hand the ball to in a playoff series
    Degrom, Carrasco, Syndergaard would be my 1,2,3

    I donít think we should add another starter, Matz should hold down the #5 until Syndergaard is back, even then Matz should spot start and long relief

  4. #1234
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    5,987
    So what do you think our lineup should be?

    Nimmo L
    Lindor S
    McNeil L
    Alonso R
    Smith L
    Conforto L
    JD R
    McCann R

  5. #1235
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    803
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry M View Post
    So what do you think our lineup should be?

    Nimmo L
    Lindor S
    McNeil L
    Alonso R
    Smith L
    Conforto L
    JD R
    McCann R
    i think for the most part they are done, unless the market comes back to where the Mets want it. Couple more minor moves like Hand and Archer. It will be curious as where Springer's reality is.

    Lindor and Conforto extensions, openings in the starting rotation, Mr. Cohen doesn't seem like he wants to go over luxury tax, it took the Dodgers 3 or 4 years to go beyond tax and then crushed it for a couple years.

    Their seems to be an actually plan for the direction of the team.

  6. #1236
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    1,629
    Quote Originally Posted by sieve00 View Post
    i think for the most part they are done, unless the market comes back to where the Mets want it. Couple more minor moves like Hand and Archer. It will be curious as where Springer's reality is.

    Lindor and Conforto extensions, openings in the starting rotation, Mr. Cohen doesn't seem like he wants to go over luxury tax, it took the Dodgers 3 or 4 years to go beyond tax and then crushed it for a couple years.

    Their seems to be an actually plan for the direction of the team.
    I agree. They don't need to be ultra-aggressive now. But they will certainly be watching things as they go along all the way through Spring Training if necessary. I would expect them to be aggressive during the regular season also. If they are in contention, they will be active. But this team, on paper and based on WAR value, could be on the verge of a 90 plus win season.

    The starting staff of deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Peterson, Matz and Lugo while waiting for Thor and then Thor himself when he is ready has an expected WAR (based on ZIPS, Steamer and my own analysis which is close to the other 2 formulae) is 18. This compared to the Mets starting staff in the 97 win team in 2006 that achieved WAR of only 7.4 (this staff included Pedro, Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Trachsel and Brian Bannister). Also when compared to the Mets starting staff in the 90 win team in 2015 that achieved an impressive WAR of 14.8 (this staff included deGrom (yes he put in the best WAR of the starters at 5.2 that year), Harvey, Syndergaard, Bartolo (who was the workhorse who put in the most innings), Matz, Niese and Gee (for awhile until he lost his starter's role). It is interesting to see that 3 of the 2015 starters are still on the team. I pray that Matz and the pitching experts find how to rectify his problems and he makes it hard for the Mets when Thor is ready to come back - that would be a good problem.

    The relief corps in 2006 led by Billy Wagner had an astronomical 9.5 WAR (better than the Starters, the relievers in 2015 led by Familia came in with a WAR of 4.5. They say a good relief corps should be expected and deliver on a WAR better than 5 so that 2015 corps was slightly low. But the 2021 relief corps using the same WAR formulae used for the starters (and before we add another pitcher like Hendrix or Hand or bring back Justin Wilson) is expected at 6.0.

    It seems that not only is Cohen, Alderson and their metrics guys doing their job but they are also acting on it. That is the most important thing. You can have all the metrics driven analysis in the world, but if you don't act on it or can't in the case of some teams, you might never be able to put a team capable of winning 90 plus games together. We know that injuries can wreak havoc with the best laid plans of mice and men and the Mets are certainly no strangers to that. Their best pitching staff (and the one with the best perceived WAR) was decimated by injuries at least twice in the past several years. So let's hope for the best of health from them for 2021.

    I am working on the offense and defense separately because to look at total WAR for the players (non-pitchers) doesn't tell a story in itself. The 2021 team has incredible WAR on paper, but with the addition of Lindor and subtraction of Gimenez and Rosario it is arguably one of the best at 22 WAR. By the way, it was at 20 WAR before the Lindor trade - not shabby at all. From a pure WAR basis we don't need to add any additional players unless we want to build better defense in CF and at 3B. I argue that is the only thing we should be looking at now - better defense. We have more than enough offense with the team as presently constructed. The trick of course is to not shed too much WAR by losing offense for defense and vice versa.

  7. #1237
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    1,629
    I will start with WAR that includes offense and defense. The aforementioned 2006 team that won 97 games was equal to the expected WAR value of the pitchers and players. It means that Willie Randolph got from his players exactly how they performed. One might say that it means he made no mistakes and that if he blew a game, he offset that by winning a game along the way. It is surprising that there are years where it is not the players alone who can make or break a season, the management of that team can.

    That 2006 team's players (non-pitchers) put together a remarkable 27.7 WAR led by Carlos Beltran at an amazing 8.2 WAR and Jose Reyes at a 5.9 WAR (compare that with Lindor's WAR with Cleveland of 7.8 in 2018 and 5.0 in 2019). David Wright came in third on the Mets in 2006 with a 4.1 WAR.

    The 2015 Mets players (not-pitchers) put together an 18.8 WAR enroute to a 90 win season. This was led by Granderson's 5.1 WAR and Lucas Duda's 2.8 WAR.

    The 2021 Mets players (again not including pitchers but using the similar WAR formulae) are expected (as I stated already) to be at 22 WAR. This appears to be led by Lindor at 5.2 and Conforto and McNeil both at around 3.8. Interestingly if Smith plays regularly in roughly 140 games his WAR comes in only at 1.6 and Alonso playing roughly in 150 games comes in at 2.6. Both of them have much better offensive WAR but they give back a good chunk of that by negative defensive WAR. That is especially true with Smith because he has been factored into playing mostly in LF. Both Smith and Alonso have negative WAR at first base.

    The

  8. #1238
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
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    93
    Quote Originally Posted by sieve00 View Post
    i think for the most part they are done, unless the market comes back to where the Mets want it. Couple more minor moves like Hand and Archer. It will be curious as where Springer's reality is.

    Lindor and Conforto extensions, openings in the starting rotation, Mr. Cohen doesn't seem like he wants to go over luxury tax, it took the Dodgers 3 or 4 years to go beyond tax and then crushed it for a couple years.

    Their seems to be an actually plan for the direction of the team.
    Not sure if the Mets are really finished. Hard to tell, but there are still some things that need to be resolved. One of those is Dom Smith. DH will solve that if NL goes with a DH, otherwise, you have a defensive 1B playing LF and and not so good defensive 1B playing 1B. Also, they need to resolve 3B. Personally, I still have faith in JD Davis, who has a rocket for an arm, one of the things you want from a 3B. Of course the improved defense at SS will help.

    As to the suggested lineup, Lindor does not have a good OBP so, despite his SB ability, he should not be batting near the top of the order. Also, that is where McNeil should be batting, despite having two LH hitters back to back with Nimmo. Agreed JD Davis and McCann down near the bottom, albeit I might want to move McCann up some so he gets more ABs depending on what kind of a season he has. Also, although it may not work out well with the lefty-right swap, Conforto has put up a good OBP and should be batting closer to the top of the order. Maybe go with Alonzo at #3 and Conforto #4. Just my two cents.

    Having said that, I can't help feeling that the Mets might trade away Conforto. Of course, they may in fact move Dom Smith if there is no DH.

  9. #1239
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    93
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry M View Post
    Iím not sure about Stroman either
    Heíd certainly be my #4 to hand the ball to in a playoff series
    Degrom, Carrasco, Syndergaard would be my 1,2,3

    I donít think we should add another starter, Matz should hold down the #5 until Syndergaard is back, even then Matz should spot start and long relief
    I suspect if a good deal arises, whether FA signing or via trade, the Mets will bite. You can never have enough pitching and the previous seasons have shown that.

    The Mets do have the option, no pun intended, of putting Peterson at AAA. So that gives them some flexibility. This is Matz's walk year. Even if he has a good year I don't think there is any chance that he would justify a QO for purposes of getting a draft pick. Given he is a home product from LI the Mets will likely have a very good chance of signing him to a contract that favors the team IMO. That is, if you trust that he will pitch effectively as I expect he will in 2021. If he doesn't pitch, then it is not an issue.

    Syndergaard will probably sign a one year deal after 2021 to put off FA to another year.

  10. #1240
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    482
    Quote Originally Posted by swbwtr View Post
    Reyes should never have left the Mets - he would have gone down as one of the best for sure. Obviously, he was not the leader off the field as Wright was that. But there was never any doubt who the heart and soul was on the field. Like you, it was obvious Reyes was that. Lindor will be all of that for the Mets now - they just need to work a long contract with him so he stays for the remainder of his career. But maybe it is best to find out if he really can be a Mets player. I remember when Keith Hernandez was brought here in his walk year. He hated coming here at first. By the end of 1983 he loved New York, the team and the fans. Look how much he is still admired in the biggest city in the world.
    Yeah keithe always talks about how mad he was when he was first traded to the Mets and how it didn't take him long to love New York and playing for the Mets. I have no idea what the plan with Lindor is cause A.Martino says we talked to him just one time before the trade and didn't talk to his agent at all which is kinda scary but also not sure i believe Martino knows that to be true cause he's always saying stuff that isn't quite true to make it look like he knows more then he really did.

    Some think it wouldn't bother Sandy that much giving up what he did to get Lindor even if they can't agree on a new deal and it ends up that he's only with us for 2021. I think they'll definitely get a deal done and am really hoping that no matter how much we spoke with Lindor or his agent that we at least got an idea of what he was looking for in a new deal and we can get him for under the $300 mil that some think it will take to sign him.

    We totally screwed up letting Reyes walk away for nothing and i was so pissed about that whole deal cause i was such a fan and loved him and David locking up the 2B/3B side of the field together. Lindor with that always happy and always big smile on his face reminds me so much of those J.Reyes days.

  11. #1241
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    482
    Quote Originally Posted by AUDIT View Post
    Not sure if the Mets are really finished. Hard to tell, but there are still some things that need to be resolved. One of those is Dom Smith. DH will solve that if NL goes with a DH, otherwise, you have a defensive 1B playing LF and and not so good defensive 1B playing 1B. Also, they need to resolve 3B. Personally, I still have faith in JD Davis, who has a rocket for an arm, one of the things you want from a 3B. Of course the improved defense at SS will help.

    As to the suggested lineup, Lindor does not have a good OBP so, despite his SB ability, he should not be batting near the top of the order. Also, that is where McNeil should be batting, despite having two LH hitters back to back with Nimmo. Agreed JD Davis and McCann down near the bottom, albeit I might want to move McCann up some so he gets more ABs depending on what kind of a season he has. Also, although it may not work out well with the lefty-right swap, Conforto has put up a good OBP and should be batting closer to the top of the order. Maybe go with Alonzo at #3 and Conforto #4. Just my two cents.

    Having said that, I can't help feeling that the Mets might trade away Conforto. Of course, they may in fact move Dom Smith if there is no DH.
    Maybe the right move would be.....now everyone calm down here, but to trade P.Alonso who can bring back a huge return since Dom Smith is better at everything but hitting HR's and he can still get 20-25 a season.

    We all love Pete and i do as well with his HR hitting and just how corky he is and how good a teammate he is but the better player is Dom. I get how tough it would be to trade Pete, but we want to keep the better players and Dom is better defensively for sure and all around offensively he's also better.

    This of course is only if we don't get the universal DH, which it doesn't sound like we will for 2021, but sounds more like we will get it in 2022, which i can get behind keeping both of them and playing Dom in LF some and some 1B because we need his bat in the lineup, and then in 2022 for me Dom starts at 1B and Pete is the DH.

  12. #1242
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    10,819
    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker4ever View Post
    Maybe the right move would be.....now everyone calm down here, but to trade P.Alonso who can bring back a huge return since Dom Smith is better at everything but hitting HR's and he can still get 20-25 a season.

    We all love Pete and i do as well with his HR hitting and just how corky he is and how good a teammate he is but the better player is Dom. I get how tough it would be to trade Pete, but we want to keep the better players and Dom is better defensively for sure and all around offensively he's also better.

    This of course is only if we don't get the universal DH, which it doesn't sound like we will for 2021, but sounds more like we will get it in 2022, which i can get behind keeping both of them and playing Dom in LF some and some 1B because we need his bat in the lineup, and then in 2022 for me Dom starts at 1B and Pete is the DH.

    The only reason I say no to this is I honest feel the DH is coming in the next 2 seasons. Otherwise, Iím with you.

  13. #1243
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    Aug 2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAZNBLU242 View Post
    Nothing for nothing but I see people keep mentioning Stroman like heís some elite pitcher. I hope we donít resign him after this season. He quit on the team last year. I donít buy his explanation for not playing. I wouldíve respected him if he wouldíve been honest. Now, with that said, I think Stroman is a #4 on a WS type team and is replaceable next season vs the money/years itíll cost to keep someone of his talent.
    How do you know what he said was not honest and truthful?

  14. #1244
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    Aug 2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by More-Than-Most View Post
    yea well... ya know what... **** you guys esp metsfan and soia... wowowow we got an owner who isnt a moron.... : (

    **** me
    Damn you donít even have supernatural anymore too.

  15. #1245
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    32,881
    I think Pete is the better player even if Dom had the better year.

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