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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    51,665

    Jacob deGrom Might Be Blazing His Way To Cooperstown

    Given their blockbuster trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, their additions of James McCann and Taijuan Walker, and their projected first place NL East finish, the Mets already had plenty of buzz about them this spring. As if they needed more, their best player, Jacob deGrom, has provided some during the Grapefruit League season by reaching triple digits with his fastball velocity. On Tuesday against the Astros, his heater reportedly reached 100 mph 11 times on the stadium scoreboard, topping out at 101 on a pitch to Alex Bregman.

    This is nothing new for the 32-year-old righty, who hit 100 in his first outing of the spring on March 6, the same day he was named the team’s Opening Day starter. Statcast wasn’t available for that outing or his March 11 one (both of which also came against the Astros in a spring where travel restrictions limit the pools of exhibition opponents). Here’s a look at deGrom’s upper-level readings from Tuesday:



    By Statcast, deGrom reached 100.0 eight times and had four or five others that would round up to 100, not that any of this really counts beyond some mid-March rubbernecking. As for keeping it 100 when it counts, a Baseball Savant search shows that last year, deGrom reached triple digits (with no rounding up) 33 times, the majors’ fourth-highest total and the highest among starting pitchers. He had only done it twice before last season, both times in 2019, but has been making exceptional gains in the velo department.



    DeGrom has picked up steam for four straight years, an unprecedented accomplishment in the pitch-tracking era (2008 onward) according to research by MLB.com’s Jason Bernard. He’s gone from 94.0 mph in 2016 to seasons of 95.2, 96.0, 96.9, and then 98.6 last year, during which he took over the top spot among starters after placing second behind Gerrit Cole in 2019.

    Velocity isn’t everything, of course, but it shouldn’t come as a great shock that deGrom leads our Depth Charts projections in ERA (2.81) and FIP (2.85) — he’s the only starter forecast to break 3.00 in either category — and WAR (6.3), the last of those 0.8 ahead of the second-ranked Cole. That projection is based upon an average of his ZiPS and Steamer projections, and like all projections has a fair amount of built-in regression; over the past three seasons, deGrom has managed a 2.10 ERA and 2.31 FIP, with only his 2019 numbers (2.43 ERA and 2.67 FIP) within half a run of the projection. As with all of our Depth Charts projections, the two systems’ raw forecasts (5.1 WAR from ZiPS, 6.6 WAR from Steamer) are dialed up (or down) to a playing time expectation, which in this case means a full 32-start workload and 204 innings based on his track record. While he served 10-day stints on the Injured List in both 2018 and ’19, the Mets’ ace nonetheless made 32 starts in each of those seasons, plus 31 in ’17 and 12 last year. Only five pitchers have made more starts over the past four seasons: Cole, Greinke, and Rick Porcello all with 110, Patrick Corbin with 109, and Lance Lynn with 108, but nobody has thrown more innings (690.1), posted a lower ERA (2.57), or been more valuable (22.8 fWAR, 24.2 bWAR).

    If deGrom lives up to his projection, he stands a reasonable chance at bringing home his third Cy Young award, which would put him in the company of just 10 other pitchers:
    Code:
    Multiple Cy Young Award Winners
    Pitcher	CY	Years
    Roger Clemens	7	1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2004
    Randy Johnson+	5	1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002
    Steve Carlton+	4	1972, 1977, 1980, 1982
    Greg Maddux+	4	1992, 1993, 1994, 1995
    Sandy Koufax+	3	1963, 1965, 1966
    Tom Seaver+	3	1969, 1973, 1975
    Jim Palmer+	3	1973, 1975, 1976
    Pedro Martinez+	3	1997, 1999, 2000
    Clayton Kershaw*	3	2011, 2013, 2014
    Max Scherzer*	3	2013, 2016, 2017
    Denny McLain	2	1968, 1969
    Bob Gibson+	2	1968, 1970
    Gaylord Perry+	2	1972, 1978
    Bret Saberhagen	2	1985, 1989
    Tom Glavine+	2	1991, 1998
    Roy Halladay+	2	2003, 2010
    Johan Santana	2	2004, 2006
    Tim Lincecum	2	2008, 2009
    Justin Verlander	2	2011, 2019
    Corey Kluber*	2	2014, 2017
    Jacob deGrom*	2	2018, 2019
    You’re probably already familiar with the general contours of that list, but it can be summarized thusly: Every pitcher who has won three Cy Youngs or more is in the Hall of Fame except Clemens — whose connection to performance-enhancing drugs has stalled his candidacy — and the two active pitchers, while the majority who have won “only” two are outside the Hall, a situation that’s not likely to change until five years after Verlander retires. He’s a lock, having surpassed the 200-win and 3,000-strikeout milestones (he has 226 wins and 3,013 strikeouts), and nearly reached the starting pitcher JAWS standard of 61.6 (his 60.9 is the active lead), though he’ll have to wait until his return from Tommy John surgery to finish that pursuit.

    As for the active three-timers, Kershaw is almost certainly on his way to Cooperstown, having pitched himself within range of 200 wins (he has 175), 3,000 strikeouts (he has 2,526) and the JAWS standard (he has 59.7). Scherzer has 175 wins as well; he’s closer to 3,000 strikeouts (2,784) but a bit behind in JAWS (55.4). Both have huge Hall of Fame Monitor scores — 199 for Kerhsaw, 154 for Scherzer, where 100 is “a good possibility” and 130 “a virtual cinch” — that only stand to increase once they hit those round numbers.

    From among the two-time winners, what separates Verlander, Gibson, Glavine, and Perry from the others is longevity; they all blew past 3,000 innings save for Velander, who’s 12 shy. Lincecum and McLain didn’t even reach 2,000 innings before fading away, and Santana barely cleared that bar, with Saberhagen (2,562.1) and Halladay (2,749.1) coming closer; the latter is the only one from that quintet to reach 200 wins, no mean feat in that small amount of time even if you don’t particularly care about the stat. He’s also the only one from that quintet who’s in the Hall.

    DeGrom’s 1,169.2 innings are even fewer than any of the other two-time winners, including the still-active Kluber (1,342.2), and he’s more than a thousand innings shy of Koufax (2,324.1), who has the lowest innings total from among the three-timers. So, from a Hall standpoint, what happens if deGrom does add to the hardware?
    Code:
    First Six Seasons: Clayton Kershaw vs. Jacob deGrom
    Pitcher	W-L	IP	SO	ERA	ERA+	FIP	bWAR	fWAR
    Kershaw	77-46	1180.0	1206	2.60	146	2.88	33.8 (0.7)	31.0 (0.4)
    deGrom	66-49	1101.2	1255	2.62	148	2.78	34.9 (1.6)	33.7 (2.2)
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-de...o-cooperstown/


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
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    32,972
    I'm personally very fascinated with what happened with Jacob DeGrom moving forward in his bid for Cooperstown eventually. He has had a great career and his past three year stretch has been phenomenal but Johan Santana basically had a better and longer streak and he got eliminated in his first year of voting for Cooperstown

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    I’ve been blazing my way through life, when am I going to get into the hall?


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    If Trump can become president with no political background then I don't understand why I need a resumé

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
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    If he wins another Cy Young and has 2-3 very good to great seasons, I think he's a shoe in HOFer (even if starts compiling a bit thereafter). Dude has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the last 3 years. If he gives you a decade of a sub 3 ERA for his career and in this era of offense, it would be hard to argue against it.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
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    32,972
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    If he wins another Cy Young and has 2-3 very good to great seasons, I think he's a shoe in HOFer (even if starts compiling a bit thereafter). Dude has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the last 3 years. If he gives you a decade of a sub 3 ERA for his career and in this era of offense, it would be hard to argue against it.
    I don't know. I just think of Johan Santana

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
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    Toms River, NJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by kyubi256 View Post
    I don't know. I just think of Johan Santana
    Johan shouldn’t have been off so fast


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  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    51,665
    Johan had only nine seasons that were decent or better. (45.6 fWAR)

    Jacob has 7, every season he played. He should eclipse Johan’s career WAR total by the end of the ‘22. (34.6 fWAR)

    I believe Jacob will eclipse the 60 WAR mark by the end of his career, which falls into the 50 - 70 WAR range which is the barometer for the Hall.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

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