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  1. #1
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    2020-21 Offseason

    I was hoping to do some speculating on next year. Hopefully Stearns will look to add a few impactful players and not a handful of cheaper wildcards.

    It is obviously a little early and I'm not giving up on this year just looking ahead to early.

  2. #2
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    Finance Breakdown
    Yeli 14 million (jumps to 26 in 22')
    Cain 15 million (2 years left) I think some of the money is deferred
    Garcia 10.25 (1 year)
    Lindblom 3.04 (2 years)
    Suter 1.5 (3 years thru arby)
    Peralta (1.2, 4 or 5 years left)

    Arbitration
    Hader Arby 2, made 4 last year (3 years left)
    Knebel Arby 4, made 5.125 last year (1 year left)
    Narvaez Arby 2, made 2.725, (2 years left)
    Pina Arby 3, made 1.85, (1 year left)
    Claudio Arby 3, made 1.75, (1 year left)
    Arcia Arby 2, made 2.2, (2 years left)
    Woodruff Arby 1 (4 years left)

    Options
    Gyorko 4.5 million or 1 millon buyout
    Sogard 4.5 million or 500k buyout
    Braun 15 (mutual option) or 4 million buyout
    Gamel 2.55 (buyout?)

    Everyone else is under club control, we also have to pay 1.75 to Smoak and Holt for next years buyout. Anderson is the only true free agent (and Jace Peterson I guess).

    So by my calcuations that is about 45 million in commitments to the 6 players under contract. Probably around 20 to players in arbitration (I would guess Knebel gets let go, Claudio, Arcia and maybe Narvaez could be release candidates to trim that number). Sogard and Braun will likely have options declined, Gyorko and Gamel would likely be picked up, so thats around 13 when you add Smoak/Holt. Add in 5-10 million for team conrolled guys making about 600k and that is somewhere in the $85 million range. Sporttrak has our 40 man payroll at 106 million this year. I know there is some more money coming from TV deals maybe someone can shed some light on but I will go on the assumption that we will have around $20 million to spend next year.

  3. #3
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    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ee-agents.html

    At $20 million you can probably count us out on the top 10 or so free agents. Also 1 thing to keep track of is if the DH stays (I am going to guess it does). A guy I would be very interested in is Carlos Santana, I doubt the Indians pick up his 17.5 million dollar option. He is still a good 1B and could make a Gyorko, Vogelbach (maybe), Santana split at 1B/DH (with Gyorko at 3B). I doubt Santana would be cheap but at 35 a 2/20 (which might be an overpay) would fill a middle of the order spot. Justin Turner is the only starting 3rd baseman on the market so a trade may be in order there for a younger player. I also would try and get a starter like James Paxton, Robbie Ray, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, Mike Minor, Cole Hamels, Mashihiro Tanaka, or Garrett Richards who have TOR potential but could take 1-2 year deals with some incentives. Then add a slew of minor league contracts to try and fill gaps.

    1)Cain 2)Santana (high OBP/lower BA) 3)Yeli 4)Huira 5)Garcia 6)Gyorko/Vogelbach 7)Urias/Arcia 8)Narvaez/Pina 9) 3B trade
    1) Woody 2)Burnes 3)FA (I'll say Ray) 4)Houser 5)Competition (Lindblom, Peralta, young guy or minor league)
    Hader, Williams, Rasmussen, Peralta, Suter, ??? Black, Wahl, Claudio, Perdomo, Feyersian, others)

    Looks a lot better to me.
    Last edited by jay87shot; 09-16-2020 at 09:39 AM.

  4. #4
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    Really disappointing to hear Stearns press conference where he says it's possible they need to cut payroll even more. Whether or not that's true, it just feels like an early hedge that we won't be very involved in FA this year.

  5. #5
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    Any trade ideas that don't include Hader? I could see someone want Lorenzo Cain after the couple big name free agents sign (Springer/Brantley/Ozuna). We likely wouldn't get a ton back but a couple decent prospects and extra salary to spend would probably be worth it. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pitcher moved whoever I really couldn't say who maybe Houser or Peralta if someone overpays. Would it be crazy to sell extremely high on Devin Williams? Relievers can be so up and down, I love the Hader/Williams combo but would have to think about a Williams trade if we were offered 4 good pieces as well as Hader.

    Any chance we go after Ha-Seong Kim, the Korean SS. Maybe I should say any chance he signs with us since there will likely be a ton of teams interested. At 25 he is young and won't cost an astronomical amount, it would be risky but looking at his stats he shouldn't be a dud.

    The Winter meetings start this week so hopefully we should have some upcoming moves to discuss.

  6. #6
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    I think we'll be bargain bun shopping again this year so I'd be surprised if we hear much early. Possibly a trade, bjt outside of Hader or something pretty minor, I think it'll be quiet. We know eventually guys are goj g to be forced to sign 1 year, low salary prove it deals and we have at bats available, so I'm guessing we wait the market out and see who's left when the dust starts to settle.

  7. #7
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    I would agree we won't go big but I would rather get 2 or 3 mid range (5-10 million) deals than the 7-8 1 year small deal we did last year.

    I think tomorrow is the non-tender day for arbitration deals.

    Arbitration
    Hader 4= Obviously yes he will make 5+
    Knebel 5.125 = No, I would offer him a deal with incentives because I think he can still be a big time reliever
    Narvaez 2.725= Yes, based on potential but barely. His defense was good and if he can rebound offensively he could be one of the best in the league. I would be ok cutting him loose if you feel Feliciano might be ready at some point this year.
    Pina 1.85= Yes, Pina last year, I would try and give him a multi-year deal to keep one of the best backup catchers in the league.
    Claudio 1.75= No, maybe the same as last year, decline option offer him less.
    Arcia 2.2= Yes, as much as I would like to be done with him Urias didn't prove enough to warrant letting him go and Turang is to far away with no other SS options in the higher minors.
    Woodruff 1st year=Yes
    Gamel 1.85= Yes, another solid bench player, the $2 millon is borderline value but everyone likes Gamel.

  8. #8
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    Arby=Hader, Woodruff
    Non-Tendered=Gamel, Claudio, Peterson
    Agree to conract= Narvaez, Pina, Vogelbach, Arcia
    Trade=Knebel to Dodgers (for PTBNL or Cash)

    No big surprises, I was really hoping to re-sign Knebel to a smaller contract. It is nice the 4 guys who signed actually took a pay decrease. Hopefully we can bring Gamel back again on a smaller deal.

    We signed catcher Luke Maile to a MLB contract, I would guess he just ends up being AAA depth since he has an option and is trash at the plate. It might mean Nottingham and/or Frietas are on the way out.

  9. #9
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    Lots of interesting Non-tender players. Any chance Kyle Schwarber could play 1st, I could see him taking a 1 yr. deal to stick it to the Cubs. David Dahl and Nomar Mazara would be high upside 4th OF options. Carlos Rodon and Jose Urena would be by low 5th starter/bullpen arms to go with some nice pen arms like Archie Bradley, Matt Wisler, and Ryne Stanek.

  10. #10
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    Here are some ideas for the offseason.

    1) Trade Jacob Nottingham for to TB for Brett Phillips
    TB needs catchers Nottingham is out of options and buried on the depth chart, Phillips would take Gamels place as a ok 4th OF.

    2) Lorenzo Cain to SF for Wilmer Flores and a prospect or 2 (1B Logan Wyatt maybe a 18 yo wild card type). We can use the money to sign a couple of short team high upside pieces and Flores gives us a 3B/1B option. Cain's defense in there huge center is a mega plus.

    3) Hader to Toronto for Jordan Groshans, Simeon Woods-Richardson, MLB ready reliever, and a mid-range prospect (SS/3B Kevan Smith). We replenish our weak farm system and our pen still looks ok. The Blue Jays have a super poor bullpen, Groshans will eventually be blocked and Woods-Richardson still has a little way to get to the show.

    4) Houser to CWS for P Jonathan Stiever and a prospect. Houser is a solid 4/5 but I can see someone overpaying for a solid cheap 4/5 with experience. Steiver has more upside and could spend some time in the minors if need be.

    Free Agents= CJ Cron (1/2 with option), Kevin Pillar (2/12), Corey Kluber (1/12 2nd year option), Kirby Yates 2/10, Brett Anderson (1/5)
    C=Narvaez/Pina 1B=Vogelbach/Cron 2B=Huira SS=Arcia/Urias 3B=Flores/Urias OF=Yelich, Garcia, Pillar, Phillips, Taylor
    SP= Burnes, Woodruff, Kluber, Anderson, Lindblom.
    RP=Williams, Yates, Rasmussen, Topa, Suter, Peralta, Yardley, Lauer/Black/Wahl

    In this scenerio we actually improve pitching more and fill in our offensive blanks with consistent albeit non-sparkly vets. If Narvaez, Yeli, Garcia, and Huira rebound we don't need huge upgrades so Cron, Pillar, and Flores would be more lineup stabilers. Kluber and Pillar would basically be like part of the Cain trade.

  11. #11
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    Not sure I love the Cain deal, but maybe it's doable. As a whole, it's probsvly a decent offseason but I don't know that I'd love it.

    The Hader deal is interesting. I look at it and it's kind of gross to me, but that also means it might be realistic. Both guys you get back sort of wear the "projectable" tag, which scares me. But both guys could be good big leauuers too. If Hader turns into our everyday 3B who can hit middle of the order or at least 5 and a #2/3 type of starter, plus maybe a big league backup and a middle reliever, it's a huge win. But if ith those prospects bust, it's awful. And both scenarios are somewhat likely.

    Selfishly, I was hoping anyone we get for Hader would be really close to the bigs, but you might get a better return if you take slightly lower level guys.

    That being said, prospect trades are going to be super weird this year. No one played minor league ball last year. No outside team saw someone else's prospects. So if a team is willing to trade a prospect, I'm sure everyone is going to have a moment of pause and think, what did they see that we didn't see last year. That's especially true for some of the volatile prospects.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 12-08-2020 at 04:24 PM.

  12. #12
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    The Blue Jay could maybe trade Lourdes Gueirrel especially if they sign an OF. The Padres, Yankees, Mets, and some other teams probably have some better MLB ready or young guys with experience. I guess I am kind of looking at a Carlos Gomez type deal. I would rather get some high upside prospects and then a couple MLB ready guys who aren't big time prospects. That way you get a couple pieces that can help right away and our farm gets some restoring. I worry a lot about our farm and not being able to sustain a couple key injuries.
    In a normal year Cain would have more value but not playing and have a below standards 2019 probably would lower his return. I doubt we would be able to move him but by trading him we would get a couple prospects and have some money to sign some free agents (2 prospects, Pillar and Kluber essentially). I think the return on Cain would outweigh his production.

  13. #13
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    What a boring off season. I didn't see the final deal on Lastella, but he was a guy I thought we'd be in on. So for the Cubs 1 yr / $1.5 mill deal is the biggest contract handed out by anyone in the division. So I guess we aren't the only ones not spending at least.

    Hopefully we don't plan on going into the season with Dan V as our primary 1B and Urias and Robertson battling for 3B.

  14. #14
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    Cards get arendado and we continue to do nothing. Really thrilling off-season. Have a feeling well make a few small moves, like bringing gyroko back or something like that, but we going to continue to tread water it seems.

    It sucks because we aren't a bad team. And there's absolutely a path where this team is good again. Woody and Burnes have top end rotation type stuff. Houser can flash as a mid rotation guy and who knows, maybe lindblom could land as a 3/4 type. The bullpen has potential to be high level. If yeli and hiura return to previous levels with the bat and Cain plays closer to the classic Cain level, the offense can be middling. Which isn't bad if the pitching staff is really good. Add in a bounce back for Narvaez and a good year from Avi and maybe it's a 10-15 range offense.

    But the problem is there's a ton of ifs there and there's virtually no room error if one or more of those things don't land. We're a middle of the pack team. And it feels like that's how we've been operating for a few years. The strategy is let's build a team that if you squint you can see a way we compete. And 7 times out of 10, it won't compete. But there's a chance we do okay in a bad division and get hot at the right time.

  15. #15
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    I am pretty sure rosters are going to be a 26 this year. Here is a to early look at a possible opening day roster without DH being calculated in and off course no more major roster moves.

    1)CF Cain 2)2B Wong 3)LF Yelich 4)1B Huira 5)3B Shaw/Urias 6)RF Garcia 7)C Narvaez 8)SS Arcia/Urias Bench) Pina, Vogelbach, Urias, (Fisher, Ray, or Taylor) and (Robertson, Mathias, Lopes)
    SP) Woody, Burnes, Anderson, Houser, Lindblom RP)Hader, Williams, Rassmusen, Peralta, Suter, Topa, Yardley Long Relief/6th Starter=Lauer, Zimmerman or Peralta and one of Black, Wahl, Feyersian, Hardy, Boxberger

    I prefer Robertson as utility, Fisher as 4th OF, Zimmerman for long relief/6th starter/13th pen arm.

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