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  1. #751
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
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    1,211
    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    On the Baez thing: Maybe it is worse than it seems. But maybe it's not. I don't have any reason to believe it is. He's still hitting it hard when he is. His O-Swing rate is actually DOWN somehow. His Z-Contact is the real issue, he's just whiffing in the zone. I don't expect that to continue, as that has been fairly consistent throughout his career.
    yeah I could see by watching the games he's been swinging at fewer balls, but also taking more strikes (from what i've seen in the games). Stats back it up so im not crazy lol.

    In total he's swinging at 8% fewer pitches, whether inside or outside the zone. My best guess is he's trying to improve his plate discipline. Given he's terrible at plate discipline, he's laying off more balls but also more strikes

  2. #752
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Posts
    1,211
    Last year Schwarber was 2nd in the MLB in average exit velo at 93. 1st was Nelson Cruz.

  3. #753
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    3,473
    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    On the Baez thing: Maybe it is worse than it seems. But maybe it's not. I don't have any reason to believe it is. He's still hitting it hard when he is. His O-Swing rate is actually DOWN somehow. His Z-Contact is the real issue, he's just whiffing in the zone. I don't expect that to continue, as that has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

    My guess, for the time being, is that he'll be OK. If he was swinging out of the zone 50+% of the time or something like that, I'd be worried. But Z-Contact is probably the least scary thing to me. I think it's fairly unlikely that he just lost the ability to hit pitches that are strikes when there's no sign that his bat speed isn't still +++.

    Even in that rough stretch post ASB last year he was within the normal ranges of his career Z-Contact rate sitting about 77.3%. A tick down, but nothing I'd worry about. I feel Javy will be fine.
    Yep Brendan Miller had the same thoughts on his podcast. I hope both of yíall are right. Iím still skeptical of locking Javy up long term. I always have been. Thereís just so many super star shortstops that are about to hit free agency and seem to project better than Javy long term.

    I have to prepare myself for losing this core. Who goes and who stays is totally out of my control. Itís inevitable that we are going to lose some of these guys and itís going to be tough when that time comes.

  4. #754
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    24,279
    Iíll have the White Sox IGT up sometime tomorrow early afternoon.

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  5. #755
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    51,120
    Quote Originally Posted by ivyboys View Post
    Yep Brendan Miller had the same thoughts on his podcast. I hope both of yíall are right. Iím still skeptical of locking Javy up long term. I always have been. Thereís just so many super star shortstops that are about to hit free agency and seem to project better than Javy long term.

    I have to prepare myself for losing this core. Who goes and who stays is totally out of my control. Itís inevitable that we are going to lose some of these guys and itís going to be tough when that time comes.
    Always nice to hear that Brendan agrees with me. Smartest baseball dude I know. I hadn't heard that on the podcast yet! So that's dope.

  6. #756
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles County, CA
    Posts
    45,259
    Not looking forward to facing the Sox. The offense is potent. They don't work long counts and try to work pitchers that way. They are aggressive and they hit a ton of HR. I wasn't a big believer in Anderson after last year but all he's done is taken it up another notch. Hes a dangerous leadoff/energy guy.

    Plus we get Kuechel tonight, Cease tomorrow (extra motivated and we suck vs velocity), and maybe Gio on Sunday? Even though Gio has been absolutely rocked I would totally throw him at us. He makes us look awful.

    Gonna be a super tough series.

  7. #757
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    12,160

    8/17-8/19: Cubs (13-6) @ Cardinals (4-4) IGT: "Let's play Five" Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    On the Baez thing: Maybe it is worse than it seems. But maybe it's not. I don't have any reason to believe it is. He's still hitting it hard when he is. His O-Swing rate is actually DOWN somehow. His Z-Contact is the real issue, he's just whiffing in the zone. I don't expect that to continue, as that has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

    My guess, for the time being, is that he'll be OK. If he was swinging out of the zone 50+% of the time or something like that, I'd be worried. But Z-Contact is probably the least scary thing to me. I think it's fairly unlikely that he just lost the ability to hit pitches that are strikes when there's no sign that his bat speed isn't still +++.

    Even in that rough stretch post ASB last year he was within the normal ranges of his career Z-Contact rate sitting about 77.3%. A tick down, but nothing I'd worry about. I feel Javy will be fine.
    Javy is unique. He performed best when he swung most, but a lot of his contact quality stats have always been in the same range. The question is what kind of performance should we reasonably expect from his contact rate and quality. 2016/2017 he was a similar guy and was a mid 90s wRC+ guy. 2018 and early 2019 he was a similar guy and he was a beast. He was the best player on the team in that stretch and put up a 130ish wRC+. Now we can go back about 500 PAs of terrible offensive production.

    Itís true that a lot of his rates arenít dramatically different than they were when he was dominating, but maybe that stretch was the aberration, not this one. I donít believe heís nearly this bad of a hitter. If I were guessing moving forward, I think that 100ish wRC+ is where Iíd expect him to be for a couple years, but I wouldnít be shocked if heís a 115 wRC+ guy and I would be shocked if heís a 90-95 guy. To sign him for 6-7 years with so many other SS available and so many other pending free agents on the team, that seems like a bad idea to me. Javy is fun to watch, the defense is great. Assuming Ricketts isnít suddenly going to spend on everyone, would you want to pay Javy instead of KB or instead of Lindor/Story/Seager?
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-21-2020 at 09:36 AM.

  8. #758
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    12,160
    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Not looking forward to facing the Sox. The offense is potent. They don't work long counts and try to work pitchers that way. They are aggressive and they hit a ton of HR. I wasn't a big believer in Anderson after last year but all he's done is taken it up another notch. Hes a dangerous leadoff/energy guy.

    Plus we get Kuechel tonight, Cease tomorrow (extra motivated and we suck vs velocity), and maybe Gio on Sunday? Even though Gio has been absolutely rocked I would totally throw him at us. He makes us look awful.

    Gonna be a super tough series.
    I think itís going to be fun.

  9. #759
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    12,160
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-respec...-ian-happ-pun/

    Interesting breakdown of Happís strategy this year.

  10. #760
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    24,279
    Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo put out an article today for MLB.com about 1 other prospect from each team that could make their debut this year.

    They both expect the Cubs to call up Cory Abbott sometime through the end of the season.

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  11. #761
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles County, CA
    Posts
    45,259
    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-respec...-ian-happ-pun/

    Interesting breakdown of Happís strategy this year.
    You ever read a fg article and think, well you just alerted the league on which adjustments to make? This feels like one of those. Hope he's quick to counter.

  12. #762
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Bloomington, IL
    Posts
    5,733
    Saw an interesting stat about home run dependency this year. 39% of the Cubs runs this year have come from the long ball. That's 20th in baseball.

  13. #763
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Puerto Rico
    Posts
    14,436
    Trade rumblings
    Phillies have talked to Red Sox about Brandon Workman


    Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


    El Mago

  14. #764
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Malaga, Spain
    Posts
    1,732
    Didn't know where to put and does not warrent it's own thread. Interesting 18 year old Cuban just defected to Mexico. Anyone know how much International slot money we have left? I don't see any signings so far.

    https://twitter.com/FrancysRomero10/...159568899?s=19

    Enviado desde mi SM-A520F mediante Tapatalk

  15. #765
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Addison, IL
    Posts
    24,279

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


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