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  1. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    Eh. Most of it is that he's being pitched way differently. He's seeing 47% of pitches in the zone. Last year he saw under 37%. He's also actually swinging at balls out of the zone slightly less than he did last year. Overall contact rate is the same, too.

    He's not walking because he's not seeing balls. Not because he can't recognize them in a way that is different from usual.
    His K rate is 37.7% and his walk rate is 1.9%.

  2. #242
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    As much as I like seeing Caratini bat in the lineup, not having guys on the bench that could hit and be that DH has hurt a couple times already to where Ross needed to kill the DH so he can catch..

  3. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    His K rate is 37.7% and his walk rate is 1.9%.
    I did not say otherwise. I said pitchers are throwing the ball in the zone way more. Greater than 47% of pitches he sees are IN the strike zone. It's almost impossible to walk when you see that many strikes. Last year he saw strikes 37% of the time.

    Last year he swung at pitches OUT of the zone 37% of the time. This year he is swinging at pitches OUT of the zone 36% of the time.

    He's not doing things differently. The results are occurring because he is being pitched differently. He absolutely cannot walk more if pitchers keep throwing him strikes the way that they are.

    His overall contact rate is ALSO the same as last year. His K rate will come down. He needs to keep making hard contact to get pitchers to leave the zone against him. Then the walks will turn around.

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    Well, it gets Bote in the lineup. So it depends on how much any given person believes his bat helps us over somebody else being in the lineup.
    Well, we could have bumped Kipnis out of the lineup, moved Bote to 2nd, KB to 3rd, and had one of our other outfielders in left.

    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    That's why feelings are less powerful than data.
    Yeah, for sure. There seems to be less fluidity and more awkwardness to his athleticism in the outfield. But if the metrics show he's an above average outfielder, than this isn't a hill I'm going to die on.

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownPacerFan View Post
    Well, we could have bumped Kipnis out of the lineup, moved Bote to 2nd, KB to 3rd, and had one of our other outfielders in left.



    Yeah, for sure. There seems to be less fluidity and more awkwardness to his athleticism in the outfield. But if the metrics show he's an above average outfielder, than this isn't a hill I'm going to die on.
    If they didn't play Kipnis, it's much more likely Hoerner is in at 2B than Bote. The point is, you can't have three of Kipnis, Bote, Bryant, and Hoerner in the game unless you move Bryant.

  6. #246
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    I did not say otherwise. I said pitchers are throwing the ball in the zone way more. Greater than 47% of pitches he sees are IN the strike zone. It's almost impossible to walk when you see that many strikes. Last year he saw strikes 37% of the time.

    Last year he swung at pitches OUT of the zone 37% of the time. This year he is swinging at pitches OUT of the zone 36% of the time.

    He's not doing things differently. The results are occurring because he is being pitched differently. He absolutely cannot walk more if pitchers keep throwing him strikes the way that they are.

    His overall contact rate is ALSO the same as last year. His K rate will come down. He needs to keep making hard contact to get pitchers to leave the zone against him. Then the walks will turn around.
    And heís making 11% less contact outside the zone this year.

    A nearly 40% k rate and 2% walk rate isnít simply the result of seeing 10% more strikes. Itís not just the walk rate. Heís striking out a ton.

    Like I said, Itís only 50 PAs. Itís not a major concern yet, but itís not nothing.

    His zone rates in 2016-2018 were about halfway between 2019 and 2020 and his K/BB didnít resemble this. Itís just a thing to note right now.
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-12-2020 at 08:38 PM.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    And heís making 11% less contact outside the zone this year.

    A nearly 40% k rate and 2% walk rate isnít simply the result of seeing 10% more strikes. Itís not just the walk rate. Heís striking out a ton.

    Like I said, Itís only 50 PAs. Itís not a major concern yet, but itís not nothing.
    It's absolutely that he's seeing more strikes. At least a LARGE portion of it can be explained by that. The K's are higher than one would expect, the walks are pretty much the only place they could be. Also, his in zone contact rate is 81% last year it was 79%.

    His out of zone contact rate is what's down. But regardless of that, we should still expect his K rate to come down. He's making contact at a rate where we should expect close to 25% K's or so. If he keeps making contact at the rate he is, and hitting it as hard as he is, pitchers will stop attacking the zone so haphazardly. And then we'll see the walks start to show up.

    But the walk rate is down because pitchers are just pounding the strike zone against him like crazy.

    There are 6 qualified batters seeing balls in the zone as frequently as Contreras. They average 3.3 walks each.
    Last edited by Doogolas; 08-12-2020 at 08:42 PM.

  8. #248
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    I donít get why Winkler is still on this team.

    We have much better arms in South Bend

    2016 World Series Champions!!!


  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    It's absolutely that he's seeing more strikes. At least a LARGE portion of it can be explained by that. The K's are higher than one would expect, the walks are pretty much the only place they could be. Also, his in zone contact rate is 81% last year it was 79%.

    His out of zone contact rate is what's down. But regardless of that, we should still expect his K rate to come down. He's making contact at a rate where we should expect close to 25% K's or so. If he keeps making contact at the rate he is, and hitting it as hard as he is, pitchers will stop attacking the zone so haphazardly. And then we'll see the walks start to show up.

    But the walk rate is down because pitchers are just pounding the strike zone against him like crazy.
    Like I said in my edit. His 2016-2018 zone rates were between 2019s and 2020s and he still walked at a good rate. Itís not just the 10% increase in strikes.

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Like I said in my edit. His 2016-2018 zone rates were between 2019s and 2020s and he still walked at a good rate. Itís not just the 10% increase in strikes.
    And as I said in my edit: 6 qualified hitters are seeing balls in the zone more than him this year. They average 3.33 walks each.

    He is simply not going to be able to walk more until pitchers leave the zone against him more. A 3-5% difference is a very big deal.

    I also didn't say it was ALL that. I said it can MOSTLY be explained by that. Which I think is definitely true.
    Last edited by Doogolas; 08-12-2020 at 08:46 PM.

  11. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    If they didn't play Kipnis, it's much more likely Hoerner is in at 2B than Bote. The point is, you can't have three of Kipnis, Bote, Bryant, and Hoerner in the game unless you move Bryant.
    Fair.

    To the original point, I'd love to see a study on whether positional consistency has any impact on defensive performance. I have to think there's a chance that playing the same position every day would provide some psychological or even physical boost.

  12. #252
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    A guy who doesnít hit 90 and struggles to throw strikes. Not a good combination.

  13. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    In case you didn't see it, I will repeat what I had posted before:

    Most of it is that he's being pitched way differently. He's seeing 47% of pitches in the zone. Last year he saw under 37%. He's also actually swinging at balls out of the zone slightly less than he did last year. Overall contact rate is the same, too.

    He's not walking because he's not seeing balls. Not because he can't recognize them in a way that is different from usual.

    Basically, if he keeps crushing the ball, teams will leave the zone against him again. And the walks will follow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    I did not say otherwise. I said pitchers are throwing the ball in the zone way more. Greater than 47% of pitches he sees are IN the strike zone. It's almost impossible to walk when you see that many strikes. Last year he saw strikes 37% of the time.

    Last year he swung at pitches OUT of the zone 37% of the time. This year he is swinging at pitches OUT of the zone 36% of the time.

    He's not doing things differently. The results are occurring because he is being pitched differently. He absolutely cannot walk more if pitchers keep throwing him strikes the way that they are.

    His overall contact rate is ALSO the same as last year. His K rate will come down. He needs to keep making hard contact to get pitchers to leave the zone against him. Then the walks will turn around.
    6 players have a higher zone% and each of them has a higher walk rate. Your point is fair. But there's literally no excuse to walk just once in 50 PA ever IMO. You have to do your part to keep your walk rate that low.

  14. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    6 players have a higher zone% and each of them has a higher walk rate. Your point is fair. But there's literally no excuse to walk just once in 50 PA ever IMO. You have to do your part to keep your walk rate that low.
    That's untrue. Yadi's walk rate is 0%. And they average 3.33 walks per person.

    Differentiating 1-2 walks in 50PA is nonsensical. If I expect 3 walks or so in 50PA, complaining about only 1 just makes no sense. It's a razor thin difference.
    Last edited by Doogolas; 08-12-2020 at 08:50 PM.

  15. #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    That's untrue. Yadi's walk rate is 0%. And they average 3.33 walks per person.

    Differentiating 1-2 walks in 50PA is nonsensical.
    I honestly don't even know why they count Yadi. I didnt even bother checking his numbers. He has 18 PA.

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