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  1. #346
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    I get it and alot of projections don't always pan out and go the way they think it should..

    Yea, he could **** the bed and pull a Descalso the rest of the year and go 0 fer his next 30
    Or
    He could just continue to be productive, not at the pace he at but good enough to continue giving him ABs here and there..
    If he finishes the rest of year playing at
    .280/.330/.410 would that be terrible?


    Do we still think this will happen?

    According to the updated 60-Game PECOTA*Projections, the Chicago*Cubs*will finish the*2020*season in second place of the NL Central with somewhere between 31-32*wins, just one game behind the Reds, and one game ahead of the Cardinals and Brewers (in the second Wild Card position).Jul 8, 2020

    Things happen that changes projections sometimes for better or worse..

    Did anyone project Kimbrel would fall as hard as he did when the cubs signed him?
    Probably not

    Maybe Kipnis is and continues to play well because he not going to face many real good pitching playing just teams in the Division and AL Central..

    I mean we can kinda wipe out a bit of what was the norm the last 3 years for teams and players because of the schedule and everything going on
    Iím genuinely interested in an answer to that question. Is it 1, 2, or 3?

    Or is your take here that projecting performance based on past performance is meaningless. If itís that, then you are about 30 years behind and this is stupid. I assume itís not that though. Either the early success makes him most likely to overachieve his previous expectation moving forward, less likely as heís ďdue for a tough stretchĒ to cancel it out, or it has basically no impact. Which one?

    Iím not talking about guarantees. Iím talking about what youíd expect from that hypothetical player starting at his 31st PA.

    Itís not a trick question.
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-13-2020 at 03:00 PM.

  2. #347
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stratos View Post
    No crap. But it could last another 2 weeks, or another month. You play him more until he stops hitting the ball hard like he has. Most players have hot and cold months throughout the year, one month they'll hit .370, the next they'll hit .200.

    There's no risk in playing Kipnis more right now. Nico has been sucking and Bote isn't Ryne Sandberg.
    How would you answer the question I asked him?

  3. #348
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    Jesus, sometimes you guys make talking/reading about the Cubs so insufferable.

  4. #349
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    Jesus, sometimes you guys make talking/reading about the Cubs so insufferable.
    If this vague whining is directed at me, thereís nothing insufferable about asking people who disagree with you questions. Nobody is forcing you to read it or to give a ****. I certainly donít find your posts interesting, but I donít control what you post.

  5. #350
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Iím genuinely interested in an answer to that question. Is it 1, 2, or 3?

    Or is your take here that projecting performance based on past performance is meaningless. If itís that, then you are about 30 years behind and this is stupid. I assume itís not that though. Either the early success makes him most likely to overachieve his previous expectation moving forward, less likely as heís ďdue for a tough stretchĒ to cancel it out, or it has basically no impact. Which one?

    Iím not talking about guarantees. Iím talking about what youíd expect from that hypothetical player starting at his 31st PA.

    Itís not a trick question.
    My take is that this isn't your normal typical season and schedule...

    Sure over a 162 game season , stats more often then not average out

    Who to say for this particular player , if this were April, that he having a fast start that may carry the first 30 games of a season before he tails off to his normal numbers?

    We've seen lots of bad hitters start out well the first month or so of the season before they drop and we've seen good hitters struggle the first month before they get it going.

    So, for this season being 60 games, this player gave a team half a season of being hot or productive before tailing off..


    Do I think Kipnis going to continue being a 1.000 OPS or even over .800 the next 45 games ? no, it highly unlikely

    But for the next 45 games he hits at his average 750 OPS or between 700 and 750, would that be terrible to get from a 2Bmen?

  6. #351
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    My take is that this isn't your normal typical season and schedule...

    Sure over a 162 game season , stats more often then not average out

    Who to say for this particular player , if this were April, that he having a fast start that may carry the first 30 games of a season before he tails off to his normal numbers?

    We've seen lots of bad hitters start out well the first month or so of the season before they drop and we've seen good hitters struggle the first month before they get it going.

    So, for this season being 60 games, this player gave a team half a season of being hot or productive before tailing off..


    Do I think Kipnis going to continue being a 1.000 OPS or even over .800 the next 45 games ? no, it highly unlikely

    But for the next 45 games he hits at his average 750 OPS or between 700 and 750, would that be terrible to get from a 2Bmen?
    It seriously isnít a trick question. Someone could make an argument for any of the 3 answers. The length of the season has nothing to do with it. Iím just asking how unexpected early performance changes your expectations for that player from that point forward.

    You donít need to change the question. Iím not asking if you think the player will continue at the unsustainable level they are at in less than 30 PAs. Iím asking if that overperformance means the player is most likely to continue to over perform the preseason expectations, if they are most likely to underperform the preseason expectations the rest of the way to even things out, or if itís most likely they perform right around the preseason expectation from that point forward.

    Itís weird that you wonít answer. My answer is that imo it is most likely the player will perform right around the preseason expectations the rest of the way. I was curious if your answer was the same or different.

  7. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    It seriously isnít a trick question. Someone could make an argument for any of the 3 answers. The length of the season has nothing to do with it. Iím just asking how unexpected early performance changes your expectations for that player from that point forward.

    You donít need to change the question. Iím not asking if you think the player will continue at the unsustainable level they are at in less than 30 PAs. Iím asking if that overperformance means the player is most likely to continue to over perform the preseason expectations, if they are most likely to underperform the preseason expectations the rest of the way to even things out, or if itís most likely they perform right around the preseason expectation from that point forward.

    Itís weird that you wonít answer. My answer is that imo it is most likely the player will perform right around the preseason expectations the rest of the way. I was curious if your answer was the same or different.
    That basically what I said , when I said stats usually even out by the end of a 162 game season

  8. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    That basically what I said , when I said stats usually even out by the end of a 162 game season
    Well now Im confused. Are you saying that if they played 162 youíd expect him to be worse than his preseason expectation to ďeven out the stats,Ē or are you saying youíd expect him to perform right around his expected level over 162?

    In either case, if the answer isnít that he should now be expected to perform better than expected based on his hot streak, it doesnít really make sense to give him more playing time than you planned because heís hot. Right?

    Anyway, if heís the best option he should play. If heís not, he shouldnít. The best option shouldnít be based on 26 PAs, imo.

  9. #354
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Well now Im confused. Are you saying that if they played 162 youíd expect him to be worse than his preseason expectation to ďeven out the stats,Ē or are you saying youíd expect him to perform right around his expected level over 162?

    In either case, if the answer isnít that he should now be expected to perform better than expected based on his hot streak, it doesnít really make sense to give him more playing time than you planned because heís hot. Right?

    Anyway, if heís the best option he should play. If heís not, he shouldnít. The best option shouldnít be based on 26 PAs, imo.
    OMG..lol

    I'd like to know how me saying that Ross could give Kipnis a few extra ABs as a DH translated into anything other than that?

    Nothing about a hot streak, nothing about where he could end up by season end , nothing about his 26 PA, nothing but maybe he could get a few extra ABs as a DH

    I mean is he not a best option right now to get a few extra ABs against some RHers?

    Oh Marone.....[emoji28]

  10. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    OMG..lol

    I'd like to know how me saying that Ross could give Kipnis a few extra ABs as a DH translated into anything other than that?

    Nothing about a hot streak, nothing about where he could end up by season end , nothing about his 26 PA, nothing but maybe he could get a few extra ABs as a DH

    I mean is he not a best option right now to get a few extra ABs against some RHers?

    Oh Marone.....[emoji28]
    I really donít get how this is confusing to you.

    I donít care about hot streaks. To me, if he wasnít the best option vs RHP a week ago, then he isnít now. If he was the best option a week ago, then he still is. Nothing changed for me. Itís great that heís played well, but I donít think heís better today than I thought he was 22 at bats ago.

    You want to argue that he should get more at bats because heís playing well and also say that his future performance will be about what we always expected or worse. Those things donít add up. Hits he got last night donít lead to runs tonight. Itís one of the other. Either you think heís better than we expected and he should play more, or you donít think heís better than we expected moving forward and it wouldnít be smart to increase his role. To say heís not better than we expected but he should play more seems illogical.

  11. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I really donít get how this is confusing to you.

    I donít care about hot streaks. To me, if he wasnít the best option vs RHP a week ago, then he isnít now. If he was the best option a week ago, then he still is. Nothing changed for me. Itís great that heís played well, but I donít think heís better today than I thought he was 22 at bats ago.

    You want to argue that he should get more at bats because heís playing well and also say that his future performance will be about what we always expected or worse. Those things donít add up. Hits he got last night donít lead to runs tonight. Itís one of the other. Either you think heís better than we expected and he should play more, or you donít think heís better than we expected moving forward and it wouldnít be smart to increase his role. To say heís not better than we expected but he should play more seems illogical.
    Ok.....

    Go Cubs

  12. #357
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Ok.....

    Go Cubs
    Great.................

  13. #358
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    ...

  14. #359
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    If this vague whining is directed at me, thereís nothing insufferable about asking people who disagree with you questions. Nobody is forcing you to read it or to give a ****. I certainly donít find your posts interesting, but I donít control what you post.
    I said what I said.

    This place has just changed so much. It actually used to be welcoming and inviting, just a bunch of dudes enjoying the cubs.

    IGTs are littered with arguing back and forth about internet dick size. Lots of intelligent posters here, even if everything isnít derived from calculating every turn.

    Itís an every day ďthe sky is greenĒ ďwell actually itís this colorĒ crap all the time.

    We are playing baseball in a ****ing pandemic, let people just enjoy it. And no, itís not directed at you but the forum in general.

  15. #360
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    I said what I said.

    This place has just changed so much. It actually used to be welcoming and inviting, just a bunch of dudes enjoying the cubs.

    IGTs are littered with arguing back and forth about internet dick size. Lots of intelligent posters here, even if everything isnít derived from calculating every turn.

    Itís an every day ďthe sky is greenĒ ďwell actually itís this colorĒ crap all the time.

    We are playing baseball in a ****ing pandemic, let people just enjoy it. And no, itís not directed at you but the forum in general.
    Stop crying.

    If you want a different kind of conversation here, then contribute towards it. If you want people to entertain you exactly how you want to be entertained go find it someplace else. Everyone is able to participate however they want. I donít believe anybody is unhappy with how the Cubs have played in the pandemic. Iím enjoying it. My version of enjoyment includes having actual conversations about the team and sometimes those conversations arenít agreement.

    If your version of enjoyment is different you can participate in the conversation or move on.

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