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  1. #316
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    Quote Originally Posted by Salvaged Ship View Post
    Agreed. And with the situation there is no way he should react like that no matter how upset he is. He may have a bit a bit of a hot head reputation with the umps, he needs to keep the emotions in check in that instance.
    Agree with this. But we also know at this time, that Willy has no control of his emotions. It's just who he is.

  2. #317
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    Eh. Most of it is that he's being pitched way differently. He's seeing 47% of pitches in the zone. Last year he saw under 37%. He's also actually swinging at balls out of the zone slightly less than he did last year. Overall contact rate is the same, too.

    He's not walking because he's not seeing balls. Not because he can't recognize them in a way that is different from usual.
    This right here!

  3. #318
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    Yep. Kipnis playing isn't even the Cubs just "playing the hot hand" I think it means they don't think that Nico/Bote will outperform Kipnis this year, which is pretty upsetting, whether they're right or wrong.
    Nico has been freaking terrible. He needs to seriously work on elevating the ball. The luster as a hitter is wearing off rather quickly as he looks like a Slappy McSlaperson thus far, just content with putting the ball in play. Kipnis has gotten extremely lucky according to his batted ball data but he still carries a 350 xwoba. Nico is at 300. Bote is also at 350 and carries an excellent 93 EV.

    Nico needs to get those reps and experience, sure. But at this point Kipnis has certainly earned his.

  4. #319
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Nico has been freaking terrible. He needs to seriously work on elevating the ball. The luster as a hitter is wearing off rather quickly as he looks like a Slappy McSlaperson thus far, just content with putting the ball in play. Kipnis has gotten extremely lucky according to his batted ball data but he still carries a 350 xwoba. Nico is at 300. Bote is also at 350 and carries an excellent 93 EV.

    Nico needs to get those reps and experience, sure. But at this point Kipnis has certainly earned his.
    I don't really care about Kipnis' xwOBA through less than 30 PAs. I would completely disagree he's earned anything at this point. I hope the Cubs don't either. I can sort of understand not trusting Nico (would think he'd warrant a longer leash before running Kipnis out there, but I digress) but why not Bote?
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 08-13-2020 at 08:45 AM.

  5. #320
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I don't really care about Kipnis' xwOBA through less than 30 PAs. I hope the Cubs don't either. I can sort of understand not trusting Nico, but why not Bote?
    I understand but we are playing a season in which there will never be an adequate sample size to judge. However you have to judge who is doing the most with their opportunities and Kipnis is certainly doing that by the measures available.

    I dont know why Bote has been the odd man out. They are clearly high on him but they still shield him so much for whatever reason.

  6. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    I understand but we are playing a season in which there will never be an adequate sample size to judge. However you have to judge who is doing the most with their opportunities and Kipnis is certainly doing that by the measures available.

    I dont know why Bote has been the odd man out. They are clearly high on him but they still shield him so much for whatever reason.
    You just said it yourself, there's not adequate sample size to make judgments, so why are we making judgments about Kipnis' incredibly small sample size performance? Why are we doing it with Nico? I don't think just because the season is short, it means you make non-scientific judgments that you wouldn't make in any other year. 60 games, or 162, you play the guy that reason dictates gives you the best chance to win. I think far and away the "safe" play, if not Hoerner, is Bote.

    For whatever reason, the Cubs don't seem to trust Bote in an everyday capacity. In that case, when they're not playing Bote, they should play Nico in hopes he puts something together, rather than settle for the replacement level Kipnis, who should really only play in case of injury or to give spot starts for fatigued players this year.

  7. #322
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    You just said it yourself, there's not adequate sample size to make judgments, so why are we making judgments about Kipnis' incredibly small sample size performance? Why are we doing it with Nico? I don't think just because the season is short, it means you make non-scientific judgments that you wouldn't make in any other year. 60 games, or 162, you play the guy that reason dictates gives you the best chance to win. I think far and away the "safe" play, if not Hoerner, is Bote.

    For whatever reason, the Cubs don't seem to trust Bote in an everyday capacity. In that case, when they're not playing Bote, they should play Nico in hopes he puts something together, rather than settle for the replacement level Kipnis, who should really only play in case of injury or to give spot starts for fatigued players this year.
    Right. The season being short means that weíre more likely than normal to see some funky stats at the end of the year, but it doesnít make it more likely than normal that a player who is hot this week will be hot tomorrow.

    Play the players that you expect will do the best today. The question here is if a ďhot handĒ is more predictive of success today than years worth of performance. I doubt it.

  8. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    You can keep typing out your suggestion like I can't read, it doesn't make it any better. No, he shouldn't get a single PA that you weren't willing to give him if he played like he had been the last 3 years. If you do, you're giving PA's away to a bad player who's has 20 good plate appearances.

    You're laughing? I'm laughing at your suggestion we throw out 1,500 PA's of horrible, bad, no good offense because he had 7 good games. Between June 7th and June 24th last year, he managed to put up 59 PA's of 183 wRC+ baseball. On the season he was one of the 10 worst offensive players in baseball who qualified. Bad players literally do this all the time. Jason Kipnis had another run of .331 wOBA in 66 PA's in July. This is not new for Jason Kipnis, to look good over the course of a shockingly small sample size.

    You're damn right he shouldn't get another PA over someone you think is just a better baseball player because he had 22 good plate appeanances. If you went into this season and you thought Nico Hoerner or David Bote was a better player, then you play them more. If you thought Willson Contreras was a better DH you play him more. Or Caratini. Jason Kipnis is Jason Kipnis and he's proven that small bursts of good hitting exist within him. Literally every year, some dumpy, bad player has a good run with every team. Good management is understanding what these runs are; aberrations in the system. You take every second of good you get, appreciate the better than expected results, but you don't change the plan because of it. It's the gambler's fallacy to take small sample sizes of the most recent data and feel like something's changed. And it's the people who feel like they have to keep playing because "they're hot" who end up pissing money away and going home with much less, or losing it all back to the house. The winners are the one's who understand they're getting lucky and walk away from the table.

    The plan on Kipnis should be altered in no way. If you would have felt player X, Y or Z would have normally been the better option in the lineup, you play that guy. If you'd normally have started Kipnis, you start Kipnis. You shouldn't alter your plan in any way, because he had a nice 22 plate appearance run.
    Let me ask you this, do you really think David Ross today gives a **** about what Kipnis stats were the last 3 seasons, or more so of how he has been playing in these 15 games that been helping his team win ?

    You're going to be very disappointed this year with these last 45 games because as long as he keeps producing, he going to be in the lineup more often then not.

    The guy so far isnt playing like he has the last 3 years, he been much better to date..

    You act all disgruntled because a guy you said is a bum and shouldn't be playing is playing well and it pisses you off...
    Jeez, be happy and give him credit for helping your team win games.
    If they had done what you want them to do and sat him with limited ABs, they probably have a couple more losses then they do now.

  9. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Let me ask you this, do you really think David Ross today gives a **** about what Kipnis stats were the last 3 seasons, or more so of how he has been playing in these 15 games that been helping his team win ?

    You're going to be very disappointed this year with these last 45 games because as long as he keeps producing, he going to be in the lineup more often then not.

    The guy so far isnt playing like he has the last 3 years, he been much better to date..

    You act all disgruntled because a guy you said is a bum and shouldn't be playing is playing well and it pisses you off...
    Jeez, be happy and give him credit for helping your team win games.
    If they had done what you want them to do and sat him with limited ABs, they probably have a couple more losses then they do now.
    First off, please, for the love of everything, stop putting words in my mouth. I'm frankly tired of it. I'm not "disgruntled" because I said he sucks and he's doing well. If you want to believe that, so be it but you couldn't be farther from the truth, and I don't in any way appreciate when people want to put those words in my mouth. I also said Jon Gray was a better draft day bet than Kris Bryant, and I don't seem disgruntled about that, do I? So save it. You want to have a discussion with me? Go for it. But stop the petty inferencing and putting unfounded words in my mouth. I've been wrong plenty of times, and I'll continue to be wrong plenty of times. It doesn't cloud my ability to make rational decisions.

    If David Ross doesn't give a **** about his last 1,500 PA's and only his most recent 22, then the Chicago Cubs have a major issue on their hand. That's an even bigger issue. That's a simple sample size issue and a complete lack of understanding how things balance out. The Cubs are in for a long road that won't be very fun if that's the case, because the Cubs will eventually be starting Josh Phegley's over Anthony Rizzo if he has a bad 7 game slump.

    If he keeps producing the Cubs should count every blessing they have, because he isn't likely to keep it up. Every game he goes out, he's closer to failing and blowing up. I'm fine with him starting if the situation calls for it. The "plan" on Kipnis right now is fine. He's a bench bat who's there to give players a rest. He should in no way gain more PA's because of a completely random 7 game stretch. He had longer and better stretches last year. He was still a horrible offensive player throughout the season.

    What's more likely? That Jason Kipnis, a player who's been in fine health, and who had terrible age 31-33 seasons will continue to be a terrible hitter? Or that the same Jason Kipnis, after only 7 games, is now a good offensive player again? I think it's pretty clear what the answer is. So no, I'm not "disgruntled". I don't want the Chicago Cubs playing bad players because of some inane belief that his results over the last handful of games replaces all of the data we have on a bad hitter. I don't think Jason Heyward is some messiah because he's had a few good games in a row. I think he's the same platoon guy he was in April. I don't think Jason Kipnis is any different because of 7 good games. Guys are who they are. I can both appreciate his good 7 game results, while also understanding they wont continue. They're not mutually exclusive. I'm a big boy who can separate the two.

  10. #325
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    Right. The season being short means that weíre more likely than normal to see some funky stats at the end of the year, but it doesnít make it more likely than normal that a player who is hot this week will be hot tomorrow.

    Play the players that you expect will do the best today. The question here is if a ďhot handĒ is more predictive of success today than years worth of performance. I doubt it.
    The thing is, no one saying to hand Kipnis the every day starting 2B job and roll with it..

    This all started with a simple suggestion/thought of maybe Ross should consider getting him a few more ABs as a DH against some RHers....

    That it, not start him more over Hoerner or Bote at 2B

    Ross isnt looking at how he performed the last 3 years, Ross is looking at how he performing this year, and as long as he producing, Ross will look for ways to get his bat in the lineup.

  11. #326
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    Let me ask you this, do you really think David Ross today gives a **** about what Kipnis stats were the last 3 seasons, or more so of how he has been playing in these 15 games that been helping his team win ?

    You're going to be very disappointed this year with these last 45 games because as long as he keeps producing, he going to be in the lineup more often then not.

    The guy so far isnt playing like he has the last 3 years, he been much better to date..

    You act all disgruntled because a guy you said is a bum and shouldn't be playing is playing well and it pisses you off...
    Jeez, be happy and give him credit for helping your team win games.
    If they had done what you want them to do and sat him with limited ABs, they probably have a couple more losses then they do now.
    Do you really think the Cubs value a weeks worth of plate appearances over 3 years worth? Maybe you are overreacting to his early success like you were overreacting to KBs early struggles when you suggested they drop Bryant in the order about an hour before he homered last night?

    Nobody is upset that Kipnis is playing well. Itís awesome. Itís completely unsustainable.

  12. #327
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    8/11 & 8/12: Cubs (10-3) at Indians (10-7) IGT

    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    The thing is, no one saying to hand Kipnis the every day starting 2B job and roll with it..

    This all started with a simple suggestion/thought of maybe Ross should consider getting him a few more ABs as a DH against some RHers....

    That it, not start him more over Hoerner or Bote at 2B

    Ross isnt looking at how he performed the last 3 years, Ross is looking at how he performing this year, and as long as he producing, Ross will look for ways to get his bat in the lineup.
    I understand the argument. I read it.

    I disagree with you. I think playing Kipnis more often would be a mistake. His success in a weeks worth of PAs is not more predictive than his results over 3 years. Playing Kipnis more is just hoping for good luck. Hope isnít a strategy. Maybe itíll work out. Itís more likely that it wonít.

    Ross should start whoever the Cubs project to be the best matchup on that night.
    Last edited by CP_414; 08-13-2020 at 10:30 AM.

  13. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    First off, please, for the love of everything, stop putting words in my mouth. I'm frankly tired of it. I'm not "disgruntled" because I said he sucks and he's doing well. If you want to believe that, so be it but you couldn't be farther from the truth, and I don't in any way appreciate when people want to put those words in my mouth. I also said Jon Gray was a better draft day bet than Kris Bryant, and I don't seem disgruntled about that, do I? So save it. You want to have a discussion with me? Go for it. But stop the petty inferencing and putting unfounded words in my mouth. I've been wrong plenty of times, and I'll continue to be wrong plenty of times. It doesn't cloud my ability to make rational decisions.

    If David Ross doesn't give a **** about his last 1,500 PA's and only his most recent 22, then the Chicago Cubs have a major issue on their hand. That's an even bigger issue. That's a simple sample size issue and a complete lack of understanding how things balance out. The Cubs are in for a long road that won't be very fun if that's the case, because the Cubs will eventually be starting Josh Phegley's over Anthony Rizzo if he has a bad 7 game slump.

    If he keeps producing the Cubs should count every blessing they have, because he isn't likely to keep it up. Every game he goes out, he's closer to failing and blowing up. I'm fine with him starting if the situation calls for it. The "plan" on Kipnis right now is fine. He's a bench bat who's there to give players a rest. He should in no way gain more PA's because of a completely random 7 game stretch. He had longer and better stretches last year. He was still a horrible offensive player throughout the season.

    What's more likely? That Jason Kipnis, a player who's been in fine health, and who had terrible age 31-33 seasons will continue to be a terrible hitter? Or that the same Jason Kipnis, after only 7 games, is now a good offensive player again? I think it's pretty clear what the answer is. So no, I'm not "disgruntled". I don't want the Chicago Cubs playing bad players because of some inane belief that his results over the last handful of games replaces all of the data we have on a bad hitter. I don't think Jason Heyward is some messiah because he's had a few good games in a row. I think he's the same platoon guy he was in April. I don't think Jason Kipnis is any different because of 7 good games. Guys are who they are. I can both appreciate his good 7 game results, while also understanding they wont continue. They're not mutually exclusive. I'm a big boy who can separate the two.
    No one saying he going to continue hitting over a 1.000 OPS , no one suggesting he take over the starting role

    The only thing that was suggested was maybe Ross will consider using him as a DH against some RHers

    So yes, maybe that gets him an extra 12 to 20 PA over the last 45 games

    Why that so terrible, I dont know

  14. #329
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    No one saying he going to continue hitting over a 1.000 OPS , no one suggesting he take over the starting role

    The only thing that was suggested was maybe Ross will consider using him as a DH against some RHers

    So yes, maybe that gets him an extra 12 to 20 PA over the last 45 games

    Why that so terrible, I dont know
    ...because Kipnis is a bad player and 12-20 extra PA's going to bad players over better players is always a bad idea. It's not hard to see how that's terrible. The Chicago Cubs should always start the player they project to be the best player. 7 games of good results shouldn't change projections. It's been said over and over, you don't throw out all scientific evidence on a player because of a short season, nor do you do so for 7 games. If Bote/Hoerner need a day off...then give Kipnis time. But don't sit Contreras extra from the DH (especially with as many off games as the Cubs have coming up, and have just had) so that Kipnis can start and extra 3-5 games. We can't let 7 games of good results throw out everything we know about Kipnis.

  15. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by CP_414 View Post
    I understand the argument. I read it.

    I disagree with you. I think playing Kipnis more often would be a mistake. His success in a weeks worth of PAs is not more predictive than his results over 3 years. Playing Kipnis more is just hoping for good luck. Hope isnít a strategy. Maybe itíll work out. Itís more likely that it wonít.

    Ross should start whoever the Cubs project to be the best matchup on that night.
    Again no one suggestion he play every day and gets an extra 100 or so ABs

    Only thing suggested was maybe using him as a DH for a handful of games against some RHers, which would be maybe at most 20 PA

    I admitted that I was looking more at Bryant overall stats and overlooked how he has improved so far the last 2 weeks

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